Outlook for 2016

[Orange Juiced]

Ok folks, people are reporting to Ft. Myers, and baseball is getting underway. I am so excited for this season!!!

 

I know the Sox were bad last year (last place, obviously). But there were some good things that we saw, especially in the second half of the season. Namely:

 

- They played just about .500 ball (36-37).

- Their ops went from .711 in the first half to .766 in the second.

- Their team era went from 4.44 in the first half to 4.15 in the second.

- We saw the emergence of Bogaerts, Betts, and JBJ.

- Swihart got valuable experience.

- Travis Shaw showed us that he may be a legit major league player.

 

And then in the offseason, the Sox added perhaps the best SP on the market (Price), perhaps the best bullpen arm on the market (Kimbrel), a solid veteran lefty-mashing OF (Young), and a really, really good bullpen arm (Smith).

 

The lineup should be outstanding. I envision this:

 

CF Betts

SS Bogaerts

2b Pedroia

DH Ortiz

1b Ramirez

LF Castillo

3b Sandoval

C Swihart/Vazquez

RF Bradley

 

They should have an outstanding and versatile bench, with Shaw, Holt, Young, and Swihart/Vazquez/veteran C. I'm excited for this offense.

 

As for the pitching, the rotation is significantly upgraded. Price changes everything.

 

SP: Price, Buchholz, Rodriguez, Porcello, Kelly

 

And the bullpen will add three outstanding pitchers (one coming back from injury in Koji).

 

RP: Koji, Smith, Kimbrel, Tazawa, Layne, and then they can mix and match the other two spots.

 

If Clay has a "good Clay" season, this rotation will be fantastic. The bullpen will be dominant, with Koji, Smith, Kimbrel, and Taz. With four excellent relievers, they should be able to hold leads after 5 innings and that allows them to actually come back in games when they're down a couple of runs late.

 

I want to see how Hanley handles first. I want to see the young kids develop. I want to see how Price does in Boston. I want to see Kimbrel dominate late in games.

 

I couldn't be more excited for the start of a season. I think they'll be right there for the division title this year. The outlook for 2016 is very strong, IMO.

[mvp 78]

Mookie in CF?!?!? Are you crazy?????????

 

I don't think the rotation will be fantastic unless ERod takes another leap and Clay has a career year.

 

I think Hanley will be fine at 1b.

 

Not sure Castillo will be batting 6th.

 

I think this is an 88 win team. Should be in the hunt in Sept.

[sk7326]

In 2016 baseball, it is hard to put out a lead pipe cinch team. That said, I think this team has a ton of potential, with a bit less variability than last year. Ceiling is about the same as last year, but the floor is much higher.

 

The rotation? Well, Price is obviously going to provide some stability at the top ... Buchholz will be good, but obviously there is a question about whether he can be good for 150 innings. Rodriguez had issues turning over the lineup - but clearly the stuff is there. This applies double to Owens, who I think has gone from overrated to underrated as a pitching prospect. Porcello I think started to figure things out by end of last season. I am not expecting miracles, but I am expecting steady competence.

 

One thing that I will be curious about (and we won't learn this until the regular season) is whether the Red Sox start shifting their pitching staff management towards limiting "looks" the way that a lot of good teams were doing. That is, instead of just using pitch counts or what have you, start monitoring the pitchers the third time through the lineup and possibly pulling them prior to rotation #4 regardless.

 

Lineupwise? I am bullish on Ramirez at 1B. Getting healthy and back to an infield corner should help him defensively, and give him some comfort with the rest of his game. Hopefully whatever healing took place can restore his approach, which fell to pieces last season. There is a lot of awful defense you can put up with if it comes with a .900+ OPS. Ramirez' .300 OBP was a really big problem, but he clearly is a good enough hitter to get back to working counts again.

 

I am also bullish on Bogaerts who figured out how to deal with major league pitching. This season's challenge is to take the pitchers' pitches he sprayed to right field, and lay off of more of them - so he can get pitches to drive. He has conquered everything life has thrown at him, so I am optimistic - but refining his approach to get to his power is an important mission.

 

I am not bullish on Sandoval - but between Holt, and moving Ramirez to 3B, there are credible options to work around it. Sandoval's ability to make contact would be valuable - but clearly the onus is on him.

 

We'll have three quality outfielders - I wish I could tell you exactly who'll they be besides Betts.

[cp176]

It's fairly rare that any team has added a Cy Young starter as well as a reliever who has produced the way Kimbrel has produced for the last few years both in one off-season. It will be forever debatable whether the cost was too high of not. The fact remains that they addressed really glaring weaknesses and managed to keep the prospects that stand the best chance of being impact players in the near future. I think that it will be very interesting to see who is their opening day catcher regardless of the promises John Farrell has made. Vazquez is throwing the ball and looks good doing it.

[sk7326]

It's fairly rare that any team has added a Cy Young starter as well as a reliever who has produced the way Kimbrel has produced for the last few years both in one off-season. It will be forever debatable whether the cost was too high of not. The fact remains that they addressed really glaring weaknesses and managed to keep the prospects that stand the best chance of being impact players in the near future. I think that it will be very interesting to see who is their opening day catcher regardless of the promises John Farrell has made. Vazquez is throwing the ball and looks good doing it.

 

I think the injury gives them a lot of cover for playing both guys - and Swihart towards the end of the year (as you'd expect) started to look quite good.

[cp176]

It will be very interesting for sure if Vazquez is in fact healthy and ready to go. Health should be the reason and not the excuse for sending Vazquez down.

[sk7326]

It will be very interesting for sure if Vazquez is in fact healthy and ready to go. Health should be the reason and not the excuse for sending Vazquez down.

 

How he looks at the plate will matter a lot. If he seems a step slow or overwhelmed, that might be enough to slow roll him.

[mvp 78]

So far, he's ahead of schedule. His arm looks great.

 

The only one behind schedule is Workman.

[cp176]

It will be very interesting for sure if Vazquez is in fact healthy and ready to go. Health should be the reason and not the excuse for sending Vazquez down.

 

couple of random thoughts. Farrell says that that 5th spot in the rotation has not been solidified and there may actually be some competition for it. Owens name has been mentioned which is fine but I really hope Brian Johnson gets a good look as well. Also talked about the need for someone needed for long relief. Safe to say we all understand the importance of having a guy like this around. Looks like a potential job for Wright to me. Oh, by the way, I kind of hope that Betts winds up in centerfield. Tends to keep him away from two walls and he doesn't have to have the best arm in baseball to play it. Everything required of a cfer he has. Big switch for me actually because I always was a fan of JBJ being there. Now I am just hoping that he is good enough to play everyday. I don't like the idea of moving Betts from right to center and back again every third day or so. Stick him in cf and leave him there at least until you really know what you have in JBJ.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is a .500 team

[User Name]

It's settled then. No need to play out the season, as our fate has already been decided and Nostradouchebag The Enlightened here has informed us of it. Time to pack it up boys!

[Bellhorn04]

This is a .500 team

 

Balderdash. I'm a skeptic, but we were a .500 team last year and we've certainly improved.

[mvp 78]

This is a .500 team

 

I think you're selling the Yankees a little low with that figure. They'll probably wind up at .520.

[Dojji]

couple of random thoughts. Farrell says that that 5th spot in the rotation has not been solidified and there may actually be some competition for it. Owens name has been mentioned which is fine but I really hope Brian Johnson gets a good look as well. Also talked about the need for someone needed for long relief. Safe to say we all understand the importance of having a guy like this around. Looks like a potential job for Wright to me. Oh, by the way, I kind of hope that Betts winds up in centerfield. Tends to keep him away from two walls and he doesn't have to have the best arm in baseball to play it. Everything required of a cfer he has. Big switch for me actually because I always was a fan of JBJ being there. Now I am just hoping that he is good enough to play everyday. I don't like the idea of moving Betts from right to center and back again every third day or so. Stick him in cf and leave him there at least until you really know what you have in JBJ.

 

I'd rather put Wright in the running for the rotation spot. Frankly I trust either of Owens or Johnson more in long relief than I trust wright. Not only does Wright have a better track record in limited samples as a starter than a reliever by nearly a full ERA run,not every catcher can handle a knuckleballer, so putting one in the bullpen limits your flexibility in an area where flexibility is crucial.

[cp176]

Not a bad way to look at it at all. I just want him to get a chance. I also don't want Farrell to overthink things.

[User Name]

I'd rather put Wright in the running for the rotation spot. Frankly I trust either of Owens or Johnson more in long relief than I trust wright. Not only does Wright have a better track record in limited samples as a starter than a reliever by nearly a full ERA run,not every catcher can handle a knuckleballer, so putting one in the bullpen limits your flexibility in an area where flexibility is crucial.

 

We get it, you like Wright. He deserves his chance, but they're enamored with Joe Kelly's fastball velocity. A fool's endeavor if you ask me.

[mvp 78]

We get it, you like Wright. He deserves his chance, but they're enamored with Joe Kelly's fastball velocity. A fool's endeavor if you ask me.

 

A false dilemma if you ask me.

 

DUMBrowski loves the high heat. This is no secret. Wright will be given a shot, but he is realistically 8th on the starting rotation depth chart here (Johnson, Owens and Kelly having a clearer path to getting a spot in the rotation).

[User Name]

A false dilemma if you ask me.

 

DUMBrowski loves the high heat. This is no secret. Wright will be given a shot, but he is realistically 8th on the starting rotation depth chart here (Johnson, Owens and Kelly having a clearer path to getting a spot in the rotation).

 

DD loving high-velocity pitchers is a good point. However, he's (imo) not the best option, with Johnson (who can actually throw strikes and has movement on his pitches) being clearly superior. Then again, Kelly's potential has always been tantalizing.

[Dojji]

I think Kelly should wind up in the bullpen and see if his stuff plays out better in relief. I wouldn't mind any of Owens Johnson or Wright in the 5th spot, personally I suspect we'll be bringing in a starter at the deadline anyhow, might as well let them all get some chances to increase their trade value or prove their usefulness to the team.

 

I say I think we'll bring in a starter from the deadline because the history of this kind of 5th starter controversy usually ends that way, with a new talent being brought in from outside the organization as it existed in the spring, and other starters simply moving down the chain. We have the pieces to make a trade and a weak spot exists in our lower rotation, if we're in contention a deal for a starter will get done, IMHO it's a question of who and when.

[sk7326]

How the bullpen looks vis a vis game management is going to be a big deal. How much are the Red Sox going to lean on their starters generally. The first tough thing is that Kimbrel and Uehara are basically locked in ... you probably don't even want to warm them up without using them. So then you have Tazawa and Smith to work around that. What would be nice is if Owens or Wright could be used (or Farrell sees them) as regular "once through the order" sorts.

[Dojji]

I think that's obviously going to vary from starter to starter. We are going to have some starters in at the long end of the bullpen, so we can soak some innings if need be. I think Eddie will break camp with the team, we'll probably have another young pitcher in the 5 spot, and Buchholz is Buchholz, so I do think we will be leaning on Porcello and Price in particular to eat some innings given that we'll have inexperience at at least 2 other rotation slots this year, probably 3 by midseason.

[mvp 78]

DD loving high-velocity pitchers is a good point. However, he's (imo) not the best option, with Johnson (who can actually throw strikes and has movement on his pitches) being clearly superior. Then again, Kelly's potential has always been tantalizing.

 

I agree. I want Kelly in the pen. I just think the Sox are going to have him begin the season in the rotation because "potential."

 

I really liked Johnson before he got hurt last year. I'd consider having him start in Pawtucket and see if Owens has developed over the offseason in the meantime.

[mvp 78]

Dojji, if they bring in another starter, it's because Buchholz is injured again.

[Dojji]

I disagree. We already have one controversy in the rotation, if Buchholz is injured again that's two. If the answer to who wins the 5th spot is "nobody" (and it certainly can be and has been in the past) and Buchholz goes back to his native soil as a permanent citizen of the Disabled List, then a trade might be done even before the deadline.

 

Even if Buchholz is healthy, and the 5th starter isn't exactly blowing the doors off, the front office could still identify the rotation as a place where the team can be improved for a reasonable price and do a deal, which I would expect them to do if the team is in contention at the deadline, and as an effort to hedge the team's bets against Buchholz' inevitable post-deadline injury. They've certainly done it before, they've also paid for not doing it. I think we will import at least 1 starting pitcher this year..

Edited February 19, 2016 by Dojji

[sk7326]

I think that's obviously going to vary from starter to starter. We are going to have some starters in at the long end of the bullpen, so we can soak some innings if need be. I think Eddie will break camp with the team, we'll probably have another young pitcher in the 5 spot, and Buchholz is Buchholz, so I do think we will be leaning on Porcello and Price in particular to eat some innings given that we'll have inexperience at at least 2 other rotation slots this year, probably 3 by midseason.

 

Oh I think all of that is true ... but what if you did something like

 

5 starters

Have Kelly and Owens there to provide 4-5 innings a week of backup. More than "long men" but not starting. Then you have the back of the pen. Keep a guy like Wright around as an actual long man.

[User Name]

Wright's not really suited for relief work if you ask me. I've never liked knuckleballers as relief pitchers.

[Dojji]

No I agree with that, which is unfortunate for him because I do think he has the talent to man the bottom of a rotation, but it's unlikely he'll get the opportunity to prove it in the Red Sox system. Too many bright young sparks who need playing time while a team is trying to compete.

[sk7326]

Wright's not really suited for relief work if you ask me. I've never liked knuckleballers as relief pitchers.

 

I don't either - but as an actual long man/mop up guy he can help keep a staff upright. There is value to that over the marathon.

[Bellhorn04]

Not a bad way to look at it at all. I just want him to get a chance. I also don't want Farrell to overthink things.

 

Yes, he should leave that up to the experts - us.

[cp176]

Yes, he should leave that up to the experts - us.

 

aint that the truth