2016 Starting Rotation

[Kimmi]

Fine....it is simply not relevant as a projection on standings which is how the data is presented.

 

 

And

 

You don't have to present the data in that format if that is what you are after. In fact, you don't have to prsent the data in that format at all if that is what you are after.

 

It's a simple format in which to present the data that most people can understand. Based on the talent level of the team and hundreds of thousands of simulations, the Sox, on paper, should win 92 games (which for the record is now down to 91 games) if everything went according to plan. We all know that almost never happens.

 

No one here or at Fangraphs has ever said or has even suggested that the accuracy of the projections is something to bet on.

[Kimmi]

If they are using it to measure relative talent levels of teams, that is really misguided.

 

Why is that?

[Dojji]

Why is that?

 

Well one reason why is that the rosters get constantly adjusted over the course of a season. The team you finish the season with may not have all that many players in common with the team that started the season thanks to an injury to this guy, a trade of that guy, a promotion of this rookie, etc

[Kimmi]

People want to argue that this is the caliber that can compete for a championship. That is fine as far as it goes. Using this sort of information as part of that argument is simply wrong headed.

 

If the Sox were at the bottom of a list like this and some nitwit Yankee troll came into the site claiming that to be some sort of relevant comment on the season about to be played and the eventual standings I would react the same way.

 

This sort of information is EXACTLY what you use to back up a statement that this team is a playoff caliber team. That said, most of the rest of the projections are not out yet. If one system is way out of whack with the others, you would be right to question that system.

 

Outside of that, if the projections are fairly in line with each other, which they usually are, then they offer very good objective support of what the caliber of the team is entering the season.

[Kimmi]

Well one reason why is that the rosters get constantly adjusted over the course of a season. The team you finish the season with may not have all that many players in common with the team that started the season thanks to an injury to this guy, a trade of that guy, a promotion of this rookie, etc

 

I realize that, which is one of the reasons why projections have such a wide margin of error. I'm talking about the projections being a good measure of the talent level of the team that was assembled during the offseason.

[Kimmi]

I would agree with that in principle. They are probably using more than WAR though as they have so many data points at their disposal. That said, even if more data points were added, that would not result in a meaningful comment on standings because rolling up data this way simply does not offer a result with any statistical relevance. I understand what Fangraphs is doing. It is even doing it in a way that tries to caution its audience about what this stuff is...but some in the audience apparently don't understand what Fangraphs is, don't understand how to read into results of this sort or achieved this way and probably have difficulty parsing Fangraphs very detailed and relevant statistical data from this sort of exercise thinking that one equals the other. It doesn't.

 

You can build a fantasy team using Fangraphs...very helpful...you could even try to build a real team this way...though I would not recommend it. Rolling up those data points into a comment on eventual standings simply does not result in a relevant comment on standings. It is a house of cards that crumbles very quickly and it seems Fangraphs even knows it. Again, I have no issues with Fangraphs.

 

You are reading way too much into how the projected standings match up with the actual results. For those who write for Fangraphs, as well as those who are regular readers, the purpose and accuracy of projection systems is known.

[jung]

Fine then folks using them to suggest that the Sox will finish atop their division should stop. There are likely plenty of good reasons to suggest they might do that. This is not one of them.

[Kimmi]

Fine then folks using them to suggest that the Sox will finish atop their division should stop. There are likely plenty of good reasons to suggest they might do that. This is not one of them.

 

I disagree. It is a reason to suggest that they might do that. On paper, they have the talent to do so. Isn't talent a good reason?

[jung]

This circular discussions are one of the reasons people leave this forum.

 

Talent does matter. You judge that player by player just as the statistics are gathered. This is a bad tool to use the way you suggest and I very much suspect Fangraphs knows that. Only fans might decide for themselves that it is meaningful in that context. Good luck with that.

 

It is bad tool and there is nothing you can say to make it a good tool.

Edited January 30, 2016 by jung

[User Name]

I'll bet dollarss to doughnuts several of the people critizising the projections don't actually know how the model works. If they don't (and they don't), why bother with them, Kimmi?

 

Also jung, that's a bs excuse for "Why people leave the forum". Most people left when a bunch of your friends from another site came over and turned this site into an unreadable pile of negativity and whining.

[Behindenemylines]

I think Buchholtz is the key to Sox success. You know what you are getting out of Price, but you need that solid number 2. You got to think both Rodriguez and Porcello will be better.

[Spudboy]

Abraham has a really good idea:

 

/www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2016/03/18/angry-chris-sale-opportunity-for-red-sox/gW00Jj19jKg4pb1ar1VNYP/s

[iortiz]

IMO, This rotation is average at best, which is an improvement from what I predicted last year. We still have a big hole at the slot No 2. I don't see an arm taking that spot right now. Hopefully ER and Kelly could be two solid No. 3s. Porcello is at best a No. 4, and I'm being benevolent LOL!, and IDK what to expect from Buch, he is a sea of inconsistencies.

[a700hitter]

Abraham has a really good idea:

 

/www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2016/03/18/angry-chris-sale-opportunity-for-red-sox/gW00Jj19jKg4pb1ar1VNYP/s

I would be on-board with getting Sale. Price and Sale at the top of the rotation would be better than when we had Pedro and Schill.

[Spudboy]

I'm all for it. I just don't see the Sox going anywhere with this rotation until they get a #2.

 

Obviously with Sale the Sox would have two #1s!!!

 

Send Moncada and Espinosa and let them choose two B prospects.

 

They would probably want Travis for the stated reasons.

 

Throw in Craig and eat some of his deal.

 

Boom. Playoff bound.

 

 

Edit: Waiting for the deadline is just stupid. This team will be done by then.

 

The time to correct a problem is when you realize that there is a problem. That is functional management.

 

Of course we all saw that this rotation was s*** prior to last season. Even with the addition of Price there just is no quality 2-5.

 

I don't give a f*** what projections have been made by any experts.

 

As one of my favorite conservative always says "It's all about pitching". Or something like that. I've had enough of last place and Farrell's excuses.

 

The time to start winning is now.

 

Of course my choice of Moncada is complicated by that fat contract of his. So send Binintendi or Travis.

Edited March 19, 2016 by Spudboy

[Dojji]

Even if the White Sox would be willing to move Sale, they'd ask for the sun, moon and sky. I agree we need a better upper middle of the rotation but I don't think the price is going to be reasonable for Chris Sale.

[a700hitter]

I'm all for it. I just don't see the Sox going anywhere with this rotation until they get a #2.

 

Obviously with Sale the Sox would have two #1s!!!

 

Send Moncada and Espinosa and let them choose two B prospects.

 

They would probably want Travis for the stated reasons.

 

Throw in Craig and eat some of his deal.

 

Boom. Playoff bound.

 

 

Edit: Waiting for the deadline is just stupid. This team will be done by then.

 

The time to correct a problem is when you realize that there is a problem. That is functional management.

 

Of course we all saw that this rotation was s*** prior to last season. Even with the addition of Price there just is no quality 2-5.

 

I don't give a f*** what projections have been made by any experts.

 

As one of my favorite Republicans always says "It's all about pitching". Or something like that. I've had enough of last place and Farrells excuses.

 

The time to start winning is now.

 

Of course my choice of Moncada is complicated by that fat contract of his. So send Binintendi or Travis.

One of your favorite Conservatives also says it. LOL!!

[Spudboy]

Even if the White Sox would be willing to move Sale, they'd ask for the sun, moon and sky. I agree we need a better upper middle of the rotation but I don't think the price is going to be reasonable for Chris Sale.

 

As I see it Sale or the equivalent is worth the sacrifice. 4 years of control at cheap money for one of the best in the league? One would have to be daft not to at least consider the move.

 

But if one is happy with the way things are going then lets just waste the currency we have stocked up in MiLB.

 

We don't need any of those players to make this team competitive now. Yes, I would like to have them all remain. But that is foolhardy. The Sox can afford to lose a couple of highly valued prospects now to build a staff that can compete for the playoffs for the next 3-4 years.

 

It's stupid not to make such a deal.

 

 

Sometimes I wish Danny Ainge would take over the FO on Yawkey Way. He would make the move.

[mvp 78]

I'd trade Sam Travis, Espinoza and two others for Sale. It'd be dumb not to.

[User Name]

Love Sale, don't love his mechanics. Looks like a disaster waiting to happen with the inverted W. I'd much rather they go out and get Sonny Gray if they're going to blow their load.

[mvp 78]

Love Sale, don't love his mechanics. Looks like a disaster waiting to happen with the inverted W. I'd much rather they go out and get Sonny Gray if they're going to blow their load.

 

This is all hypothetical. ChiSox aren't moving him.

[Kimmi]

As I see it Sale or the equivalent is worth the sacrifice. 4 years of control at cheap money for one of the best in the league? One would have to be daft not to at least consider the move.

 

But if one is happy with the way things are going then lets just waste the currency we have stocked up in MiLB.

 

We don't need any of those players to make this team competitive now. Yes, I would like to have them all remain. But that is foolhardy. The Sox can afford to lose a couple of highly valued prospects now to build a staff that can compete for the playoffs for the next 3-4 years.

 

It's stupid not to make such a deal.

 

Sometimes I wish Danny Ainge would take over the FO on Yawkey Way. He would make the move.

 

Dombrowski doesn't strike me as the type to hang on to prospects. IMO, he would make the deal in heartbeat, even if it were an overpay, as long as the deal is somewhat in the realm of being "reasonable". Look at what he gave up for Kimbrel. Dombrowski has not attachment to our prospects.

 

Despite the recent controversy, Sale is likely not available for any price that is reasonable.

[mvp 78]

If his contract was for two more years, he'd be dealt. ChiSox have him through 2019!!!! They aren't moving him unless Betts/Xander are involved.

[Dojji]

I'd trade Sam Travis, Espinoza and two others for Sale. It'd be dumb not to.

 

Sam Travis probably isn't the leading piece Chicago wants back when they have Jose Abreu. They could make it work of course, but it would be hardly ideal.

 

My reading of the situation is that any deal for Sale starts by sending them Eddie to replace him, and following that up with probably other high value pieces such as Swihart and Moncada, both of whom CWS would have reason to be interested in

 

If you think dealing Eddie and Swihart plus a couple promising minor leaguers for Sale is worth it I'm not entirely prepared to disagree with that assessment, but my sense is that that's more like what the price would be, and it's certainly not small..

Edited March 19, 2016 by Dojji

[cp176]

I would love to see Sale or somebody comparable come to Boston. I wish that I felt more comfortable with the idea of possibly trading players such as Moncada, Travis, Benintendi, and Espinoza. I'm just not sure that the people that everybody projects ahead of them are any better than they are right now. Outside of Betts and Bogaerts I wouldn't be particularly torn up if anyone else on the current projected roster was to get traded. it is probably a little different perspective but i would just as soon see the first three I mentioned starting for this team in April as I would any of the guys who currently look to be guaranteed jobs. Before this is over it is conceivable that we will need a Moncada, a Travis, or maybe even a Benintendi. I also realize that to get you have to give but those are guys that might very well be legitimate stars. IMO much more so than the blocked Margot, Guerra, and whoever.

[Dojji]

make no mistake, CP, Sale would cost us Eddie +, not just pieces like Moncada, Travis, Benitendi or Espinoza. We will need to be sending them a cost controlled SP back in any trade for Sale, and they will have the leverage to insist on Eduardo Rodriquez being in the package. I think that Eddie plus Swihart and Moncada is close to what they'd ask for -- they may request additional B list pieces but those three would headline the trade.

 

It might still be worth it. Sale is that good. But it's certainly not going to cost us nothing but prospects to pull an arm like that onto the team in trade.

[cp176]

Sam Travis probably isn't the leading piece Chicago wants back when they have Jose Abreu. They could make it work of course, but it would be hardly ideal.

 

My reading of the situation is that any deal for Sale starts by sending them Eddie to replace him, and following that up with probably other high value pieces such as Swihart and Moncada.

 

If you think dealing Eddie and Swihart plus a couple promising minor leaguers for Sale is worth it I'm not entirely prepared to disagree with that assessment, but my sense is that that's more like what the price would be, and it's certainly not small..

 

 

I know that it isn't a popular opinion but I would understand a trade of Swihart before a trade of Moncada, Benintendi, or Travis. Now, that is assuming Boston still projects Swihart to be a catcher only. I think that the play at first base, third base, and two of the three outfield positions are going to have to be watched carefully.

[Dojji]

I can understand a trade of Swihart too, IF the team has made the decision that Christian Vazquez is their starting catcher. but I do think that we're going to lose pieces we'd rather not, if the player coming back is Chris Sale.

 

And I think that that's perfectly OK as long as the deal is fair and you know what you're getting into. you don't get to keep all your prospects if you're also aiming for the top, that's alright. prospects are a means to an end not an end in themselves. Knowing who to keep, who to move, and when to make a move, is part if the job of the GM and keeping all the prospects is never exactly the right move

[cp176]

I can understand a trade of Swihart too, IF the team has made the decision that Christian Vazquez is their starting catcher. but I do think that we're going to lose pieces we'd rather not, if the player coming back is Chris Sale.

 

And I think that that's perfectly OK as long as the deal is fair and you know what you're getting into. you don't get to keep all your prospects if you're also aiming for the top, that's alright. prospects are a means to an end not an end in themselves. Knowing who to keep, who to move, and when to make a move, is part if the job of the GM and keeping all the prospects is never exactly the right move

 

I think that i could live with a trade of Rodriguez and Swihart for Sale. The big question for me would be who else they might want. i think that I would be willing to give them just about anyone else other than Moncada, Travis, and Benintendi.

[User Name]

Agree with Dojji's assesment of the price (not so sure they'd be so insistent on Eddie instead of Espinoza, but still). However, I personally wouldn't pay the price considering the injury history for pitchers who throw using inverted W mechanics. Especially for someone who is already experiencing some (albeit minor) difficulties with his elbow.