2016 Starting Rotation

[SoxHop]

You just need 1 guy to overachieve behind Price. That might be enough to win the East. I'm counting on E-Rod and even Clay to do that.

 

Kelly needs to be consistent, and be a good back end starter with potential for more. I'm not sure if any teams has a 5th starter who has a 100MPH fastball.

 

I think we really have something with E-Rod. I don't think he needs to overachieve. I see him as a solid 3 at the least and possibly being a solid number 2.

 

That leaves Kelly and Buch. If Buch does his "I'm an ace thing" for a while that's cool, but then we fill him in the last part of the year which balances his performance out.

 

Now if Kelly does is "I'm and ace thing", then the unexpected just became reality and BAM........ we have 4 top end of the rotation guys hurling in the rotation.....

 

it could be magical.

 

Also, has Kelly ever been just mediocre????? Last year he was either terrible or great.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the snow has made people forget a little about how bad the sox rotation was. Price is a major get. Huge. But the only other consistent guy in that rotation is in Seattle. ERod was the next closest. Expecting anything out of Kelly or Buch is a fools errand. If it comes, great. But the likelihood of sustained success out of either is low

[Bellhorn04]

I think the snow has made people forget a little about how bad the sox rotation was. Price is a major get. Huge. But the only other consistent guy in that rotation is in Seattle. ERod was the next closest. Expecting anything out of Kelly or Buch is a fools errand. If it comes, great. But the likelihood of sustained success out of either is low

 

You're right. This rotation is built on hopes and prayers after Price. Having a much better bullpen is a big help though. And I think the Sox will definitely be willing to make a trade for a #2 starter if the need and the right opportunity present themselves.

[Kimmi]

I think the snow has made people forget a little about how bad the sox rotation was. Price is a major get. Huge. But the only other consistent guy in that rotation is in Seattle. ERod was the next closest. Expecting anything out of Kelly or Buch is a fools errand. If it comes, great. But the likelihood of sustained success out of either is low

 

Not really. No one is expecting our rotation to be great, though it has potential to be very good. The projected improvement from this team is not coming from the 2-5 slots. None of the projections for those pitchers are overly optimistic.

 

The team's projected improvement is mostly coming from the addition of Price, the improved BP, and Hanley and Pablo regressing to at least replacement level.

[Kimmi]

Kelly said yesterday that Farrell called him over the winter assuring him that he was not going to be traded, and assuring him that he had a spot in the starting rotation, at least to start the season. It seems that the Sox see something in Kelly as a starter and that they are committed to him in that role.

[cp176]

Kelly said yesterday that Farrell called him over the winter assuring him that he was not going to be traded, and assuring him that he had a spot in the starting rotation, at least to start the season. It seems that the Sox see something in Kelly as a starter and that they are committed to him in that role.

 

I just hope that they are not overly committed to him. I understand the concept of giving him a chance but if he fails I worry about Farrell hanging on too long. I hope that DD is willing ready and able to step in and help him out.

[Bellhorn04]

I feel like the law is on our side this year. The law of averages, that is. We had a lot of X factors crap out last year. This year some of those x factors should go our way.

[Station 13]

Our bullpen is an x factor, we've gone from the worst BP to a top 4. This is a boon for the rotation.

[jung]

I think Porcello becomes this year's Miley to consistency only consistently better than Miley. But with the pressure off (Price) I think Porcello settles in this year, is not spectacular nor even great but is steady. Depending on how it goes with Kelly and Buch, maybe Porcello is steady enough to slot into the 3.

[a700hitter]

I just hope that they are not overly committed to him. I understand the concept of giving him a chance but if he fails I worry about Farrell hanging on too long. I hope that DD is willing ready and able to step in and help him out.

If he looks like Daniel Bard in Spring Training, they need to call an audible.

[Kimmi]

I just hope that they are not overly committed to him. I understand the concept of giving him a chance but if he fails I worry about Farrell hanging on too long. I hope that DD is willing ready and able to step in and help him out.

 

Dombrowski strikes me as the type who will have a short leash on any of the players who underperformed last season. If someone like Kelly is not performing up to par after being given a fair chance, I think Dombrowski will tell Farrell to try something else.

[Kimmi]

I feel like the law is on our side this year. The law of averages, that is. We had a lot of X factors crap out last year. This year some of those x factors should go our way.

 

The law of averages is definitely on our side.

 

We have had some terrible luck the past two years.

[User Name]

The problem is, that the law of averages respects nothing in regards to baseball.

[cp176]

The law of averages is definitely on our side.

 

We have had some terrible luck the past two years.

 

You make your own luck most of the time. Signing Price is a step toward taking luck out of the equation as is the bullpen reshaping. Depending on players such as the likes of Buchholz, kelly, Sandoval, and Ramirez, not even to mention a few others does call for some possible divine intervention.

[cp176]

The problem is, that the law of averages respects nothing in regards to baseball.

 

 

doesn't sound very good for the stat gurus of the world.

[User Name]

doesn't sound very good for the stat gurus of the world.

 

The stat gurus know this. Baseball is played by people, not walking stat sheets. When a guy's cooked, he's cooked. There's no regression, no career averages, no nothing,

[cp176]

The stat gurus know this. Baseball is played by people, not walking stat sheets. When a guy's cooked, he's cooked. There's no regression, no career averages, no nothing,

 

If the players only knew! Life would be much simpler.

[Kimmi]

The problem is, that the law of averages respects nothing in regards to baseball.

 

This is true. Baseball is such a random sport.

[Bellhorn04]

The problem is, that the law of averages respects nothing in regards to baseball.

 

Depends what we're talking about, right? You're saying that just because a guy has a down season doesn't mean he's going to have a better one next year, which I agree with. But that's true in all sports, isn't it?

 

In some ways the law of averages is absolutely respected by baseball. When a guy is on a hot streak because of a crazy high BABip we know it's only a matter of time before things reverse themselves.

[User Name]

That's a much smaller sample, and I'm talking mostly about abrupt regression/skill erosion, ssomething that can't be statistically predicted with any degree of accuracy.

[Dojji]

Agreed. But we have seen players appear to regress, and then revert to career levels. One good example was Mike Lowell. It's not high odds, but it shouldn't be ruled out entirely either.

[User Name]

Scott Kazmir is another good example, but then again they are very much exceptions.

[Bellhorn04]

The players we need to bounce back the most are Porcello, Hanley and Panda.

[User Name]

Porcello and Hanley (offensively) are decent bets in my mind. Panda's young, but counting on his discipline both at the plate and in his personal life to improve at this point of time looks like a fool's errand to me.

[SoxHop]

I just find it interesting that we have 4 pitchers that all have shown ace like qualities for stretches at a time last year.

 

The staff could be great, or very bad, or somewhere in the middle. But it's just kind of fun thinking about them all pitching to their best ability.

[jung]

There is a chance that Porcello settles down this year and has a decent year. I can't realistically expect more than that but making him the highest paid starter on the staff with a vacuum above him was not too bright and not just because they paid him every dime he could have expected in FA. Porcello might just benefit the most from Price being here. Still and all, I can't see him higher than a rotation 3. Eddie is the guy I think slots in behind Price.

 

Eddie would be charting the games Price pitches. Can't hurt.

[Kimmi]

Porcello and Hanley (offensively) are decent bets in my mind. Panda's young, but counting on his discipline both at the plate and in his personal life to improve at this point of time looks like a fool's errand to me.

 

I am more optimistic about Panda than most, but even if he doesn't bounce back to a 3 WAR player (which even I think is too optimistic), he should be able to bounce back to a level above replacement level, somewhere about 1 WAR. That would be a marked improvement over what he gave us last season.

[a700hitter]

I am more optimistic about Panda than most, but even if he doesn't bounce back to a 3 WAR player (which even I think is too optimistic), he should be able to bounce back to a level above replacement level, somewhere about 1 WAR. That would be a marked improvement over what he gave us last season.

I have no doubt that he will bounce.

[jacksonianmarch]

Every single pitcher in Major League Baseball can look like an ace at times. I remember when Darrell Rasner was lights out for a month for NY a few yrs back. Top end talent is lights out for sustained periods. The guys after Price aren't top end talent

[User Name]

Rodriguez has pitched a couple of months, but has excellent stuff. How the f*** can you know beyond a shadow of a doubt he's not top end talent? He's got to pitch first. Also, I will contend that Buchholz is very much a top-end talent, but he's as fragile as a sheet of toilet paper.