The search for an ace

[mvp 78]

Sox don't need anymore 3's. That didn't work last year. Need a 1 and a 2.

[Orange Juiced]

Sox don't need anymore 3's. That didn't work last year. Need a 1 and a 2.

 

The Red Sox would have been fine if their 3s had pitched like 3s instead of putting up godawful numbers the first half of the year.

 

Pitcher - 1st half era - 2nd half era

Miley - 4.80 - 4.09

Porcello - 5.90 - 3.53

Kelly - 5.67 - 3.77

Masterson - 6.00 - 4.40 (eventually replaced)

 

I mean, look at those first half era numbers: 4.80, 5.90, 5.67, 6.00. Those aren't the numbers of a #3 pitcher. Those are numbers of guys who should be DFA'd. In the case of Masterson, that's what eventually happened. If the Sox' rotation would put up eras of 4.09, 3.53, 3.77, 4.40, and 3.85 (Rodriguez), with a revamped and much-improved bullpen, with the way the offense and defense really came around last year, this team will absolutely be a title contender.

[Spudboy]

Kazmir, Leake, Lackey, Chen all have cases ... Zimmermann has a QO attached to him which is a turn off for a mid-rotation guy. Unfortunately Samardzija got a QO because I liked him quite a bit for a value play. Unfortunately QOs are attached to a lot of the middle class guys who'd be worth a look - and will be bad for their market I'd think.

 

For bullpen help, O'Day makes sense. Personally Tim Lincecum would be a very worthwhile flier to see if you can hit some lightning with him out of the pen.

 

 

Even though it may seem to be just a romantic idea based on sentimentality, I like this idea. I've been thinking about this since about mid-season.

 

The Sox have a track record of taking fliers on duds for the pen. Another failure and who cares?

 

I wonder how well Lincecum would pitch in a new league?

[Spudboy]

Sox don't need anymore 3's. That didn't work last year. Need a 1 and a 2.

 

I see Lackey as a #2 at worst.

 

He'd be a big upgrade for the Sox staff.

 

Offer him 2/38.

 

Done.

[mvp 78]

I see Lackey as a #2 at worst.

 

He'd be a big upgrade for the Sox staff.

 

Offer him 2/38.

 

Done.

 

LOL no.

 

He wasn't a 2 when here for the most part. No reason to expect he'd be one years later.

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox would have been fine if their 3s had pitched like 3s instead of putting up godawful numbers the first half of the year.

 

Pitcher - 1st half era - 2nd half era

Miley - 4.80 - 4.09

Porcello - 5.90 - 3.53

Kelly - 5.67 - 3.77

Masterson - 6.00 - 4.40 (eventually replaced)

 

I mean, look at those first half era numbers: 4.80, 5.90, 5.67, 6.00. Those aren't the numbers of a #3 pitcher. Those are numbers of guys who should be DFA'd. In the case of Masterson, that's what eventually happened. If the Sox' rotation would put up eras of 4.09, 3.53, 3.77, 4.40, and 3.85 (Rodriguez), with a revamped and much-improved bullpen, with the way the offense and defense really came around last year, this team will absolutely be a title contender.

 

I too wish we could just ignore a player's overall performance and only chose their best months. JBJ is the next Mike Trout since he will only hit like August 2015 from now on!!!

[Kimmi]

Yup, unless they plan on blowing past the luxury tax limit.

The Sox have been reluctant to do that in the past, but they may have given Dombrowski the green light to so this off season.

 

If they made a commitment to strengthen the bullpen, they could get by with a 2nd tier pitcher.

Bullpens are an iffy proposition to begin with though.

They could end up with a staff like KC; adequate starting pitching and a killer pen, or it could go south like this past season; a rotation that puts too much pressure on the bullpen and the whole staff folds.

 

Can't wait to see which way this goes.

 

Henry has apparently given Dombrowski the go ahead on signing one "big fish" in free agency. I really don't see any way that the Sox wouldn't go over the luxury tax limit if that's the case.

 

Knowing that Ortiz' $16 million will be coming off the books in 2017 will help. It won't help us to stay under the limit this year, but it could get us under the limit next year, which would reset the penalty.

[Kimmi]

An odd conclusion. This team makes bank. There is no reason -- none -- why they can't shell out some money for a top ace.

 

Of course this team has the resources to do pretty much whatever they want, but that doesn't mean they should be stupid in their decisions.

[Kimmi]

One good thing is that the "less sexy" starting market is very strong as well this year. Leake, Kazmir, possibly Fister (although more hoping there).

 

I think there are some pretty good 2nd tier pitchers available, but after last season, I don't think the FO will go that route. It's still not a bad plan, but I think this year the FO is thinking ace or bust.

[Kimmi]

The Sox have more than enough pieces to get Fernandez. Good grief. It's just that the guys the Marlins would want, I don't think the Sox would want to give up. Namely, Betts and Bogaerts.

 

I'm now reading how the Marlins are fed up with Fernandez' "immature attitude" and how Fernandez is very disrespectful when he talks to management. This hints at the Marlins being ready to move him, though if he does indeed have an attitude problem, not sure that we'd want him.

 

As far as the Sox having the pieces to get Fernandez, I'm sure they do. However, I'll say again that just because they can afford it doesn't mean they should be stupid about it.

[Elktonnick]

I think there are some pretty good 2nd tier pitchers available, but after last season, I don't think the FO will go that route. It's still not a bad plan, but I think this year the FO is thinking ace or bust.

 

I don't what the FO has said or what the various Boston sportswriter have written that would make you draw that conclusion. The Sox need pitching. Everyone knows that. I believe they'll try their best to get an ace but if they can't, I think they know they have no choice but to go out and get the best starter available and perhaps more than one if possible.

 

After two last place finishes I think even Henry knows that he must make moves this off season that excite the fanbase. So if DD fails to get an ace despite making every effort to do so he'll have to pull off some other major deal. That being said, I see them going full steam at trying to sign a number 1 and making every effort to move HR and the Panda to soothe a very angry Red Sox Nation.

[Kimmi]

I don't what the FO has said or what the various Boston sportswriter have written that would make you draw that conclusion. The Sox need pitching. Everyone knows that. I believe they'll try their best to get an ace but if they can't, I think they know they have no choice but to go out and get the best starter available and perhaps more than one if possible.

 

After two last place finishes I think even Henry knows that he must make moves this off season that excite the fanbase. So if DD fails to get an ace despite making every effort to do so he'll have to pull off some other major deal. That being said, I see them going full steam at trying to sign a number 1 and making every effort to move HR and the Panda to soothe a very angry Red Sox Nation.

 

That is pretty much what I'm saying. They may end up having no other choice but to go with 2nd tier starters, but that is not their plan.

 

And if they fail to get an ace and make some other major deal just to excite the fan base, then they really haven't learned their lesson at all.

[jung]

We were bad in 2014 and embarrassing in 2015. I don't see us making it all the way back to WS contention in one year but you can hardly blame Sox nation for being mad. Nobody is interested in seeing this team embarrassed. Embarrassing is why Larry was on the way out anyway and why BC was really not left an option regardless of how that might have looked.

 

The problem is not that there aren't lots of FA pitchers out there...but there are few that will not cost you the 12th pick in the draft. DD would be an absolute idiot to give up that pick for the bulk of the FA pitchers out there. Cueto does not cost you that pick....Price does not cost you that pick.

[example1]

I'm now reading how the Marlins are fed up with Fernandez' "immature attitude" and how Fernandez is very disrespectful when he talks to management. This hints at the Marlins being ready to move him, though if he does indeed have an attitude problem, not sure that we'd want him.

 

As far as the Sox having the pieces to get Fernandez, I'm sure they do. However, I'll say again that just because they can afford it doesn't mean they should be stupid about it.

 

Isn't he like 23? I give a wide berth for attitude at that age... especially if he's really good.

[Dojji]

I too wish we could just ignore a player's overall performance and only chose their best months. JBJ is the next Mike Trout since he will only hit like August 2015 from now on!!!

 

Well isn't that exactly what you're doing by highlighting 2-3 months of uncharacteristically BAD performances for each of these pitchers?

 

If you didn't understand the point he was making I'd be happy to explain it to you but I think you do and are just being a bit of a dick today.

 

Odds are Masterson is a complete washout, his velo and command were so far down this year I think he may simply be done. Any of the others could legitimately bounce back and have years much closer to their career norms, and if they did it would put the rotation on pretty solid footing. Although a new top starter would still be a good thing either way.

 

Although I disagree that we also need a #2. I think odds are Eddie is ready to step up and be that guy, or will be by the end of the year. If we could squeeze Wei-Yin Chen into the budget on top of the guy we bring in to be our #1, however, you wouldn't see me complaining. I think Chen is vastly underrated and a very very good pitcher.

Edited November 20, 2015 by Dojji

[Orange Juiced]

I too wish we could just ignore a player's overall performance and only chose their best months. JBJ is the next Mike Trout since he will only hit like August 2015 from now on!!!

 

You think me pointing out their godawful first half stats is me "ignoring" it?

 

Very strange.

[Bellhorn04]

LOL no.

 

He wasn't a 2 when here for the most part. No reason to expect he'd be one years later.

 

Lackey has been a solid 2 throughout his career, except for 2010 and 2011, when, I'm presuming, he was pitching hurt.

[a700hitter]

Isn't he like 23? I give a wide berth for attitude at that age... especially if he's really good.

 

I watch a lot of NL East games and I can tell you that Fernandez is a top shelf ace. It would be great to get him,but we would have to deal with Boras.

[a700hitter]

Bold prediction: DD will have an ace by the end of November-- first week of December.

[User Name]

We were bad in 2014 and embarrassing in 2015. I don't see us making it all the way back to WS contention in one year but you can hardly blame Sox nation for being mad. Nobody is interested in seeing this team embarrassed. Embarrassing is why Larry was on the way out anyway and why BC was really not left an option regardless of how that might have looked.

 

The problem is not that there aren't lots of FA pitchers out there...but there are few that will not cost you the 12th pick in the draft. DD would be an absolute idiot to give up that pick for the bulk of the FA pitchers out there. Cueto does not cost you that pick....Price does not cost you that pick.

 

What are you even talking about? This is the deepest pool of free agent pitching we've had this century, both with draft pick compensation attached, and without. You have aces, number twos, middle of the rotation starters, the whole shebang.

[sk7326]

I'm now reading how the Marlins are fed up with Fernandez' "immature attitude" and how Fernandez is very disrespectful when he talks to management. This hints at the Marlins being ready to move him, though if he does indeed have an attitude problem, not sure that we'd want him.

 

As far as the Sox having the pieces to get Fernandez, I'm sure they do. However, I'll say again that just because they can afford it doesn't mean they should be stupid about it.

 

I am in favor of a mild overpay for a guy like that - I understand prospects being blocked, but you save them to get value - this would make sense. But no matter.

[sk7326]

Even though it may seem to be just a romantic idea based on sentimentality, I like this idea. I've been thinking about this since about mid-season.

 

The Sox have a track record of taking fliers on duds for the pen. Another failure and who cares?

 

I wonder how well Lincecum would pitch in a new league?

 

Fine. We do have solid evidence from prior Giants runs that Lincecum's stuff (if the hip surgery works) can play up in shorter stints. Question is whether the fastball can be enough to keep them off of the offspeed stuff.

[Kimmi]

Isn't he like 23? I give a wide berth for attitude at that age... especially if he's really good.

 

Point taken about his age. It's quite possible that he will mature and his attitude won't be an issue. In terms of his pitching ability, I'd absolutely want him on the team.

[Kimmi]

I am in favor of a mild overpay for a guy like that - I understand prospects being blocked, but you save them to get value - this would make sense. But no matter.

 

Agreed SK.

[jung]

Well Greinke, Gallardo, Zimmerman, Iwakuma, Anderson. Chen, Lackey, Sumardzija, Kennedy and Estrada all received QO's. So going after any of them will this year cost the Sox a pretty low draft pick. There are plenty left but a lot of the quality just left the building unless DD is willing to give up the pick. Seriously doubt he will want to do that having just given up four guys from the system. Of course we could bring in Colon or Arroyo or how about Brandon Beachy. Do we really want to look at guys that didn't even do much in the NL, never mind the AL or guys that are old as dirt?

 

Not sure what Doug Fister is doing these days. Happ might be interesting but we likely don't like the looks of his AL stats. With the QO guys costing you the pick I would guess Buehrle is the most interesting of the guys that are left other than Cueto and Price. The rest of it is a bunch of been there done that. i really don't think we want to do a bunch of Porcello deals. Bunch of names occupying a bunch of lines on a sheet of paper really does mean that much to a team that sort of did that already. So I think OUR list is somewhat shorter than the general list of FA's.

 

Guys available that might actually help this team without adding a bunch more potential high risk, sunk cost are not that many.

[Soxfan83]

I was reading a couple articles from the Boston globe and over the monster about trading for Fernandez. I think he would be a good ace for us in the right package. I would give up Devers, Owens and a 5-10 prospect for him. However, under no circumstances would I trade Moncada, Espinoza or Benetendi. Thoughts on if that package would be enough?

[mvp 78]

Doubt they'd trade for him unless Rodriguez or Espinoza was included.

[a700hitter]

I was reading a couple articles from the Boston globe and over the monster about trading for Fernandez. I think he would be a good ace for us in the right package. I would give up Devers, Owens and a 5-10 prospect for him. However, under no circumstances would I trade Moncada, Espinoza or Benetendi. Thoughts on if that package would be enough?

 

Not a chance that package gets done. Fernandez is already a top starter when healthy. Owens' doesn't have a ceiling close to Fernandez. Imo, this package is a nonstarter.

[Kimmi]

Guys available that might actually help this team without adding a bunch more potential high risk, sunk cost are not that many.

 

This is exactly why I would have preferred saving those prospects that were dealt in the Kimbrel trade to trade for a young, cost-controlled starter.

 

Buehrle has stated that he will either pitch for the Cardinals or he will retire.

[example1]

I was reading a couple articles from the Boston globe and over the monster about trading for Fernandez. I think he would be a good ace for us in the right package. I would give up Devers, Owens and a 5-10 prospect for him. However, under no circumstances would I trade Moncada, Espinoza or Benetendi. Thoughts on if that package would be enough?

 

Yeah, as a700 said this package is too low--especially given what they just paid for Kimbrel (a reason I don't love that deal, as far as prospects go). And although I'm one to really hold onto prospects like the ones you listed in most circumstances, Fernandez is the first pitcher since Felix Hernandez back in 2008 who I would break the bank on... or at least consider it. The package to make MIA trade him would need to be an obvious win for them. So Devers (great piece), Owens (okay piece) and a 5-10 prospect wouldn't do it. I think you'd need another piece at the Devers level and then not be discerning about the back-end guys... so Moncada, Devers, Owens and another prospect or two for the Marlins to choose from--maybe keeping Benintendi off limits. Could get more interesting if they included Rodriguez or Swihart (or Vazquez) from the start. Maybe Eduardo, Owens, Devers and Espinoza. That's a LOT of talent but if he's healthy Fernandez is as good as they come considering his stuff and his age.

 

If you remember how Theo tried to entice Seattle to move Felix it was basically "here's our top 20 prospects, choose six". The sox might be able to put one or two guys off limits but not very much.