Who Will Carryover to 2016 from the Worst Staff in 10 Years, i.e. 2015

[a700hitter]

I thought it would be interesting to have a thread where we discuss which starting pitchers from the 2015 train wreck staff will carryover to 2016. I have said since the 2015 preseason that we needed 2 top of the rotation pitchers. Ben disagreed. See my sig. Ben is gone. He thought that he knew better, but he didn't. Here are my holdovers. Who are yours? You can votes for as many or as few as you would like. Who do you think DD brings back?

 

Rodriguez/Owens -- one will make it, based on September and Spring Training

Porcello -- his contract is too large to move

Buchholz -- they will exercise his option but not be able to trade him for good value due to health concerns

 

Miley will be a victim of a numbers squeeze. His contract is reasonable and his performance is consistent. He is our most tradeable pitcher. I believe that he will be traded.

 

Has Kelly turned a corner? If he puts up a solid September to build on a spectacular August, Kelly could force his way into the rotation possibly forcing out the rookies.

Edited September 4, 2015 by a700hitter

[cp176]

!. A free agent sign ( a good one )

 

2. A good trade

 

3. Porcello

 

4. Rodriguez

 

5. fighting it out

Miley

Kelly

Buccholtz if he is back

Owens

Johnson

Wright

 

I'm really hoping that Dombrowski does not choose to go with the same old scenario because of contracts and their size. I don't think that he will.

[sk7326]

Masterson's the obvious no.

 

Johnson, Barnes and Miley are all guys I could see dealt (let's say probability above 1/3)

Owens could be dealt in a sexier move (let's say 20%)

 

Kelly will turn into a pumpkin and really should be fit for relief. In real life, bullpens should have some guys capable of pitching 100 IP, although they don't, and Kelly would be idea for something like that.

 

Wright stays because he is a very valuable extra guy to survive a marathon

 

If the Red Sox signed one starter who was some flavor of good (a true ace would be awesome, but let's say a Top 25 pitcher of any sort), the rest of the guys actually would fall into place into something competitive. Of course I am assuming Porcello comes back as - at minimum - the guy his early 20s indicated he was. The last two starts are a tiny sample, but at least there is evidence that he is a decent pitcher who has a bad year as opposed to an actual bad pitcher.

[Kimmi]

The only three I voted for are Buchholz, Porcello, and Rodriguez. I think they are more or less shoe-ins to be in the starting rotation to start the season, provided they are healthy. I agree with CP that Dombrowskil will likely acquire two pitchers this offseason.

 

I doubt that Kelly will be traded. If not in the rotation, he could be in the BP. I don't think Miley will be traded either. He is a valuable and good back end starter.

[mvp 78]

Porcello

Buchholz

Owens

Rodriguez

Other FA signing

 

Miley gets traded

[iortiz]

They can keep whoever they want as long as they sign 2 solid/durable SPs (3 ERA/200 IP) and rebuild the BP.

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello

Buchholz

Kelly

Rodriguez

???

 

Who's the comedian who voted for Masterson? Pruneface?

[Station 13]

FA

Porcello

Rodriguez

Kelly

Buccholz

 

Must get 200IP out of 2 starter in there. Clay either need to be traded or stick with him as a #5 and have someone ready with his eventual injury in June.

[Behindenemylines]

Of the pitchers on the 2015 Sox I think Porcello and Rodriguez are the only two sure bets to be in the 2016 rotation. Buchholz is a big question because of the health issue. Owens will start 2016 in AAA unless he is traded. Barnes will be tried again in the bullpen. Not sold on Kelly yet, and could be a piece to get a true number 1 back. Miley could be a 5 or he could get traded.

[sk7326]

Of the pitchers on the 2015 Sox I think Porcello and Rodriguez are the only two sure bets to be in the 2016 rotation. Buchholz is a big question because of the health issue. Owens will start 2016 in AAA unless he is traded. Barnes will be tried again in the bullpen. Not sold on Kelly yet, and could be a piece to get a true number 1 back. Miley could be a 5 or he could get traded.

 

Miley might be a strong bet too ... durable, can miss bats - for a back end, can do a lot worse

[a700hitter]

Miley might be a strong bet too ... durable, can miss bats - for a back end, can do a lot worse

 

If Miley stays who goes he squeeze out? There isn't enough room for 2 new starters plus the current crew.

[Kimmi]

If Miley stays who goes he squeeze out? There isn't enough room for 2 new starters plus the current crew.

 

I know I'm in the minority, but I still think it wouldn't be a bad idea to let Rodriguez start in AAA. He may not have a lot left to prove at that level, but some more seasoning wouldn't hurt. He would almost certainly get called up soon enough.

[a700hitter]

I know I'm in the minority, but I still think it wouldn't be a bad idea to let Rodriguez start in AAA. He may not have a lot left to prove at that level, but some more seasoning wouldn't hurt. He would almost certainly get called up soon enough.

 

He will likely end up with 10 wins for the team this season. He has earned a spot. It is his to lose in Spring Training.

[sk7326]

If Miley stays who goes he squeeze out? There isn't enough room for 2 new starters plus the current crew.

 

I don't know - and if you think in terms of 5 men for 162 games, there is a lot of hoping. Basically Miley can deliver a slightly better version of what Ryan Dempster produced - or for that matter Tim Wakefield. That means he probably should not be starting in a World Series game - but he can be invaluable for managing the marathon. As you noted he is a trade asset because he is priced very well.

[a700hitter]

I don't know - and if you think in terms of 5 men for 162 games, there is a lot of hoping. Basically Miley can deliver a slightly better version of what Ryan Dempster produced - or for that matter Tim Wakefield. That means he probably should not be starting in a World Series game - but he can be invaluable for managing the marathon. As you noted he is a trade asset because he is priced very well.

 

5 pitchers come north as starters. You carry depth in the bullpen with a long reliever. I don't think Buch can pitch out of the bullpen, so he will either be a starter or be gone. I don't see Miley pitching out of the pen with his contract. There are 5 spots. Which of the current crop gets those spots? Sure we will use more than 5 pitchers to start games during the season, but that is not the question.

Edited September 6, 2015 by a700hitter

[Bellhorn04]

Right now it looks like either Miley or Kelly is the best candidate to trade - whichever one yields the best return.

[reYoukilis]

I think Buchholz should be odd man out, too many injuries and I like what our new pitchers are doing. Why trade if they are working.

 

Also, if people think the top notch free agents are too expensive, then what?

[cp176]

I don't see trading Miley. He gives us just what a good 4 or 5 could give. He is healthy and on occasion has pitched some beauties.

 

Porcello, Rrodriguez, Miley I hope are in. I would be perfectly fine if two new guys were brought in and Kelly got moved to the pen. If they bring Buccholtz back, it will be interesting to see how he is used. Even if he is healthy (as healthy as he can be ) it isn't a sure thing that he is going to be anything better than average. It won't be about the money if they decide to bring him back or not. They might just decide to go in a different direction. i really don't see Dombrowski starting the new season with the same starting 5 minus Masterson. I'm still going with - 2 new guys - Porcello - Rodriguez - and either Miley or Kelly.

[BigPapi]

He will likely end up with 10 wins for the team this season. He has earned a spot. It is his to lose in Spring Training.

 

I agree. On top of that, Dombrowski did express in a press conference last month that he covets power arms. This makes me think there is no way erod wouldn't start for the sox next year to start the season.

[mvp 78]

Right now it looks like either Miley or Kelly is the best candidate to trade - whichever one yields the best return.

 

Why not both?

[sk7326]

5 pitchers come north as starters. You carry depth in the bullpen with a long reliever. I don't think Buch can pitch out of the bullpen, so he will either be a starter or be gone. I don't see Miley pitching out of the pen with his contract. There are 5 spots. Which of the current crop gets those spots? Sure we will use more than 5 pitchers to start games during the season, but that is not the question.

 

I would think a ___, Buccholz, Porcello, Rodriguez, Miley or Kelly are your 5. There is more reason to believe in Miley's certainty than Kelly - but more reasons to hope on Kelly. It will be interesting how it gets navigated.

[Elktonnick]

While the Sox will probably pick up Buchholtz's option, I wouldn't be surprised to see him not on the active roster by the ASB next year. I believe he'll be a likely candidate for TJ surgery sooner rather than later.

[a700hitter]

I would think a ___, Buccholz, Porcello, Rodriguez, Miley or Kelly are your 5. There is more reason to believe in Miley's certainty than Kelly - but more reasons to hope on Kelly. It will be interesting how it gets navigated.

 

How do you think it turns out... Miley or Kelly? Also, you think they will add only one pitcher?

[User Name]

I still like Miley and hope he doesn't get traded. They really need to work on his ability to maintain his tempo though. When he's on, he's capable of gems like the one he pitched last time out, but it's too easy for tough opponents to get him out of sync and put up crooked numbers during big innings. Kelly's live arm is definitely better suited for the BP. Closer of the future if you ask me.

[sk7326]

How do you think it turns out... Miley or Kelly? Also, you think they will add only one pitcher?

 

I think they might add seventy pitchers given the fan outcry ... but adding one plus some natural regression from Porcello and what you'd expect a 22 year old with 100 big league innings to do as a 23 year old ... investing in one might help the other stuff fall into place. I don't disagree that two would help more. But of course looking at the pitching strictly in terms of starting is also pretty simplistic. A starters ERA of 4.00 does not mean the pitching staff is necessarily bad (2007 would be a strong datapoint there).

[Dojji]

I think you add 2 pitchers to the top of the rotation or one to the top and one to the middle, and add a reliever to the top of the bullpen. And then you find a way to give our defense a severe upgrade.

 

My ideal choice would be finding a slick glove to insert at short, finding a way to move the Panda along, and sliding Bogaerts to third base, and running an outfield of Castillo-Betts-JBJ in some arrangement. We need to upgrade our defense more than we need to bring in top arms, and we NEED to bring in top arms. But upgrading defensively at short combined with getting Pedroia back and having Holt as a very defensively capable backup will help the pitching staff a ton.

 

Bogaerts is otherwise decent at short but his limited range is a liability. That same range would probably be average or slightly above at third base. And he definitely has the bat to stick at third, even if it would stand out more as a shortstop. Moving him down the defensive spectrum is a completely defensible move.

 

This team would have won more games if instead of Hanley and Panda we'd picked up a Johnny Noodlebat shortstop with excellent fielding ability. That should be a move we make this year, if we've learned anything. Considering that Dombrowski made the move to bring Iglesias over from Boston for his defense I retain some hope that he'll figure it out.

[mvp 78]

Dojji, do you even watch the games? Xander's range hasn't been an issue this year. You keep him at SS because it helps to have a big bat at SS and 3b.

[Dojji]

Oh it's been an issue. Mostly because no one else on that side of the field has exceptional range either. That's not necessarily Bogaerts fault but that doesn't change the fact that the single best way to upgrade our infield defense is to move Bogaerts to third and bring in a defense guy to cover shortstop. In my personal opinion nothing else we could do to improve the pitching will have a bigger impact than upgrading the infield defense.

 

If you want the basis for my reasoning look at the Kansas City Royals. They don't hide average-ish gloves at key defensive positions in order to upgrade their offense, their shortstop is the traditional highly athletic noodlebat guy, and if you haven't looked at the standings lately, it seems to be working out for them

 

The way I see it Bogaerts is a lot like Jeter was at his peak -- The overall package is excellent and the defense is not precisely awful, but he's there for his bat and his range is average at best, and when you're going to have the other guys cover that side be a pile of ambulatory lipids and a spaz, that's going to cause issues.

 

I think bringing in an elite defensive guy and moving Bogaerts to third would give us two plus defenders on the left side of the infield since I'm confident that Bogaerts' average-for-a-shortstop range will become an asset for him at third rather than being neither an asset nor a liability. Bringing in an elite defense guy would replace two average-ish defenders with two defenders well up to their defensive assignments, and I would expect righthanded pull hitters to average fewer hits to the left side of the diamond as a result which is going to be especially good for our lefties, none of which are excelling with the current infield configuration for *cough* some reason.

Edited September 7, 2015 by Dojji

[jacksonianmarch]

Your rotation will look different next yr. You will have a headliner, either via trade or FA. My bet is the sox deal for a young ace rather than sign one as that seems to be against Henry's philosophy. I doubt very much that Buchholz is in your rotation. I think they decline his option as he cannot seem to come back from an innocuous elbow issue. Otherwise known as his elbow is not innocuous. There is likely an issue there and they don't want to pay out $13 mil for a guy who's elbow is ready to explode. One of Owens or ERod will be in the rotation. I doubt highly that Kelly is in the rotation. Miley and Porcello are probably stuck there due to cost and lack of performance. My guess is you'll land an ace, sign a innings eater and finish out the rotation with ERod, Porcello, Miley.

[sk7326]

1. This year Bogaerts has been better by measurables than Jeter was in virtually any of his seasons defensively. Jeter's main contribution (which was considerable) was offensive, full stop. Now it is true that teams are smarter now about positioning fielders, but the Royals are the league's best team at that too.

 

2. Your logic here basically is blaming Bogaerts for A) not being Ozzie Smith out there and having a crappy 3B next to him, neither which is remotely fair to evaluating him. Now if we moved him to 3B and signed 1985 Ozzie Smith, the defense would be unbelievable - well duh. It would be a deeply suboptimal use of limited lineup spots, especially if the shortstop can't hit enough to justify it.

 

Basically, Bogaerts has been the best SS in the American League, by a considerable margin - but somehow you are blaming him for his third baseman (in 2015) being among the worst.