2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[Gringo]

still can't believe sandoval was given the green light

 

awful

[SoxHop]

I don't agree with this. I think a trained scout can process information that cannot be conveyed through stats. The human mind is still the most advanced computer.

 

Stats don't forget things and are not biased. There is no personal feeling with stats either. Most humans will have a bias for something, and then alter their assessment of something because of that bias. It's human nature to see what you want to see and forget what you want to forget. Or even remember something incorrectly and then have a strong belief in that incorrect memory.

[a700hitter]

Stats don't forget things and are not biased. There is no personal feeling with stats either. Most humans will have a bias for something, and then alter their assessment of something because of that bias. It's human nature to see what you want to see and forget what you want to forget. Or even remember something incorrectly and then have a strong belief in that incorrect memory.

and humans interpret stats with all the same human failings.

[sk7326]

Right. The best analyst is the guy who knows what he's looking at and has the numbers to back him up. In the absence of that you need both perspectives to have about equal weight in the front office as a collective unit.

 

The issue comes when you have someone who has no aptitude for one or the other, and they'll talk up the one they're good at and try to downplay the significance of the one at which they are incompetent.

 

That is true, although that tends to come more from the scouting side than the reverse - not surprising of course, there is a bit of "get off my lawn" there

[SoxHop]

and humans interpret stats with all the same human failings.

 

This reminds me........ Just around the all star break some larger stat places did the second half calculation of who was going to do well the second half. I think that Fan Graph was one of them, maybe baseball reference........

 

The calculation were run into a computer and ran like a million difference scenarios.

 

All of them had the Sox not in first place at the end of the season, but winning at a higher percentage than all the other ALE teams in the second half........

[iortiz]

and humans interpret stats with all the same human failings.

 

Yup. This is why the case method made so famous to arguably the best business school in this planet: Harvard Business School... and reason why a lot business schools have followed the same line around the world. In the end the guy who make the calls take all the information available (tangible and intangible) in order to make the "best" decision for his team. In the end every decision is subjective.

Edited August 14, 2015 by iortiz

[reYoukilis]

That's true. As many stats as there are, you still need a human brain to collect them all and decide which ones are more important than the other.

 

And there still isn't a stat for clutch, which is what wins championships.

[User Name]

Well, the BL is that the Red Sox have not used stats and scouting properly.

 

How exactly do you know this? It could be either, it could be both, it could be neither and it could be a coaching problem. But you just love talking like you have some inside info about what's going on (you don't) and making s*** up.

[User Name]

WAR is a terrible 'stat'. The fact that it varies, often significantly, depending on which website you are using tells you all you need to know. How can it be a reliable stat when it's dependent on what website you are on?

 

Speaking of bad stats, the worst is blown saves for non-closers. It should be a blown hold. It would still be a bad stat, but I'm just tired of every time a middle reliever is being discussed for closer, some media idiot will question the move with something like "he's only 2-10 in save chances". In reality he'd be something like 2-2 in saves and 90-98 in holds.

 

Your take on WAR is uninformed and silly. I will bet money you don't actually understand why its measurement varies between websites. You can't call it terrible if you don't really understand it. Not that it doesn't have its flaws mind you.

[User Name]

All save and save related stats are nonsense.

 

Looking at any stats without understanding the components is a bad idea to begin with. The main gap between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference is about how much responsibility to assign a pitcher (there are also differences in defensive measurement, but they are minor - and both sites now use the same functional definition of replacement level). Considering this is actually an open question, it is helpful to have two answers to that question. That any metric is not the one metric which solves all of your measurement problems does not mean it is not a distinct improvement over older made up things like OPS (which add two things which are not equivalent), RBI (which arbitrarily splits the credit for a run being scored), or chicken's blood (which helps Pedro hit the fastball).

 

^Funny.

[User Name]

That's true. As many stats as there are, you still need a human brain to collect them all and decide which ones are more important than the other.

 

And there still isn't a stat for clutch, which is what wins championships.

 

Don't make me go down (up?) there.

[a700hitter]

Dipoto looks like a dweebie twit/. It's no wonder that he couldn't stand up to Scioscia. He should fit in perfectly in John Henry's world of pencil necked mealy mouthed geeks

[Bellhorn04]

Dipoto looks like a dweebie twit/. It's no wonder that he couldn't stand up to Scioscia. He should fit in perfectly in John Henry's world of pencil necked mealy mouthed geeks

 

LOL

 

Baseball-Reference lists him at 6'2" 203 lbs, so he was a decent sized individual back in his playing days.

[sk7326]

Dipoto looks like a dweebie twit/. It's no wonder that he couldn't stand up to Scioscia. He should fit in perfectly in John Henry's world of pencil necked mealy mouthed geeks

 

He couldn't stand up to Scioscia because his owner did not have his back. Life when the manager won't listen to what the player-personnel people say.

[Kimmi]

WAR is a terrible 'stat'. The fact that it varies, often significantly, depending on which website you are using tells you all you need to know. How can it be a reliable stat when it's dependent on what website you are on?

 

All stats are open to interpretation to some extent. One of the most basic stats, the strike out, can vary significantly depending on who is umpiring the game. Does that make the strike out an unreliable stat? If that's the case, then you would have to say that all stats are unreliable because they all vary depending on who is umpiring/scoring the game.

[a700hitter]

LOL

 

Baseball-Reference lists him at 6'2" 203 lbs, so he was a decent sized individual back in his playing days.

Still a pencil necked geek.

[Bellhorn04]

According to Gammons, the Sox are also interested in hiring Pat Gillick as some sort of consultant.

[a700hitter]

According to Gammons, the Sox are also interested in hiring Pat Gillick as some sort of consultant.

Basically, Bengie can't do his job and he needs help and mentoring.

[sk7326]

All stats are open to interpretation to some extent. One of the most basic stats, the strike out, can vary significantly depending on who is umpiring the game. Does that make the strike out an unreliable stat? If that's the case, then you would have to say that all stats are unreliable because they all vary depending on who is umpiring/scoring the game.

 

Also, the two flavors of WAR do not REALLY differ for position players. The difference is for pitchers, and since there is legitimate debate about the value of FIP, I don't see a reason to not look at both. Help draw your own conclusion.

 

For instance - FIP vs xFIP. It is good to have both around, since "homerun luck" is not a settled issue either.

[Bellhorn04]

Still a pencil necked geek.

 

I would have been very surprised if your response was anything different than that.

[sk7326]

According to Gammons, the Sox are also interested in hiring Pat Gillick as some sort of consultant.

 

Not a surprise. Team has used old GMs (Lajoie, Baird, Lee Thomas) extensively in the past. Assuming there is a process everybody is on board with, as Faber University's motto said, Knowledge is Good.

[Kimmi]

and humans interpret stats with all the same human failings.

 

You have a point. As I just noted with the strike out, all stats are open to human interpretation during the game. As an aside, I would like to point out for those who still think that the "error" is a better way to assess defense than UZR is, that UZR uses a multitude of scouts who are constantly rotating which teams and players they watch in order to neglect some of that bias.

 

This is why computer models are used in making projections. No, they are not foolproof by any means, but they take the subjectivity and bias out of the equation as much as possible.

 

The bottom line is still the more tools you use, the better off the assessment. No one should ever dismiss stats, nor should they ever dismiss scouting.

[Kimmi]

Still a pencil necked geek.

 

And this is a problem why?

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think the Sox ran quite enough computer simulations on Hanley Ramirez playing left field.

[Kimmi]

Basically, Bengie can't do his job and he needs help and mentoring.

 

The FO and Ben are responsible enough to acknowledge that what they have done the past 2 years has not worked. Rather than the continual bashing, give them some credit for bringing in a fresh pair of eyes to help them fix the mess that the team is in.

[a700hitter]

And this is a problem why?

Just an observation.

[a700hitter]

The FO and Ben are responsible enough to acknowledge that what they have done the past 2 years has not worked. Rather than the continual bashing, give them some credit for bringing in a fresh pair of eyes to help them fix the mess that the team is in.

It's not a solution if Ben still makes the calls.

[Kimmi]

Also, the two flavors of WAR do not REALLY differ for position players. The difference is for pitchers, and since there is legitimate debate about the value of FIP, I don't see a reason to not look at both. Help draw your own conclusion.

 

For instance - FIP vs xFIP. It is good to have both around, since "homerun luck" is not a settled issue either.

 

Agreed. I don't recall the exact numbers, but analyses have been done on WAR and it has been shown that WAR works. BP also has its version of WAR, I believe. They all vary slightly in their definitions, but they are all very reliable and valid in terms of describing what has happened on the field.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe they should compartmentalize and put Dipoto in charge of sprucing up our putrid bullpen for next year.

[iortiz]

How exactly do you know this? It could be either, it could be both, it could be neither and it could be a coaching problem. But you just love talking like you have some inside info about what's going on (you don't) and making s*** up.

 

Easy, the results are out there. It's not rocket science. It's pretty clear that nothing have worked out in the last 3/4. The plan and the execution have been horrible.

 

Your hatred and inconditional love for Cherington do not let you see clearly.