2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[a700hitter]

Has anyone noticed how well Castillo has been playing of late. Looks like he has adjusted to life in the major leagues and has shaken off the cobwebs of his extended absence from competitive baseball. Travis Shaw may yet get us to forget Mike Napoli and Bradley may have finally figured it out. I find these very encouraging signs, now if only they can find some pitching.

 

Yes, Castillo is starting to play like the player that we hoped he would be. Hopefully, he will get even better. I have liked Shaw's live bat since Spring Training and was surprised that most people considered him a career AAA roster filler type.

 

What do we do with Hanley? I am unconvinced that he will improve enough in LF to justify keeping his bat. I see 2 choices for him. Move him to first base before 2015 is concluded to see if he can handle it or trade him and eat a chunk of his contract. I am not in the camp thinking that he is our DH in waiting. Ortiz, our best hitter again in 2015, will be back at DH in 2016. Even if he slides next season, he is likely to get enough ABs to vest for another season. If he vests, I would think that it is more than a 50-50 chance that he returns in 2017. By 2018, Hanley will be in the last year of his contract with us. I don't see the upside of having him butcher 3 seasons in the OF to get one season of him at DH. Pack him up and ship him off. His bat isn't worth wrecking the defense and putting on his dog show act.

[SoxHop]

Has anyone noticed how well Castillo has been playing of late. Looks like he has adjusted to life in the major leagues and has shaken off the cobwebs of his extended absence from competitive baseball. Travis Shaw may yet get us to forget Mike Napoli and Bradley may have finally figured it out. I find these very encouraging signs, now if only they can find some pitching.

 

Castillo and JBJ are pretty much the main reason I'm watching the games. Castillo has been hitting much better, JBJ somewhat.

 

Castillo still does dumb stuff in the field and will need to be drilled. Missing the cutoff man the other night was just dumb.

 

If just one of those guys prove they can start next year and help, we are in much better shape than a few months ago. If both prove themselves, then even better.

 

What might turn out to be unfortunate is we may to sell or sit one of them because of Hanley.......

[iortiz]

When and how do I collect my money?

 

 

 

Yep, that's what I was getting at. I was exaggerating when I said WAR is terrible. I don't hate it so much for what it is, I hate the way it is far too often being used. I've probably seen thousands of articles or posts where somebody is comparing players for the purpose of determining who is better, and then using WAR as the determining factor. That's its purpose IN THEORY ONLY. If you want to know whether Trout or Harper is having a better season, you can't look at 1 stat and determine for certain (assuming players are reasonably similar level). Such a stat does not exist for practical purposes. WAR is that stat in theory and conjecture. Did Ty Cobb have a better career than Roger Clemens? There are tons of people who would vehemently say yes because his WAR is 10.8 (or 15.6) higher. That is what's terrible. The correct answer is there is no correct answer.

 

I didn't even get into the different site/different WAR thing, or other flaws, or what it is good for (it's not completely worthless, I hinted at it above). I'll save that for another day and another thread.

Every single stat has a purpose. "Primitives" and "advanced". All of them are useful. Thing is that some thik that they are la panacea, and they are not. They are only part of the evidence/information that you need to figure out something. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Again, you are right.

[iortiz]

That is a piece that sounds smarter than it is. Of course teams don't use WAR - not because it's bad, but because competitive intelligence has moved to different, trade secret sort of things. WAR (or WARs components more accurately) was a place to start. The question is for fans among publicly available resources. WAR is miles better as an item to cite than OPS, which itself was better than RBIs. It's just evolution in this field.

 

The point about multiple ways to calculate WAR is a strength of the current state than a weakness. Instead of arbitrarily resolving questions about the nature of baseball, this provides a range of outcomes based on that assumption ... which is more accurate anyway.

 

Some still think that WAR is used by teams in order to establish a salary/benchmarking. It is not.

 

Do not get me wrong, I like WAR and all the fundamentals put in there, and it is a good estimator to value a player, but again it has to be taken with a grain of salt. It is not la panacea.

Edited August 15, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Sometimes I want to grab popcorn, sometimes I want to hit you guys in the head.

 

It's a shame. Read carefully the last two pages and you will figure out how this started.

 

A700 has U? on ignore, but U? Knowing this, keeps replaying him, Why? It's an enigma.

 

I do not replay him unless he insults me and still sometimes I do not replay him.

 

Somehow he irritates so much with my posts, and they are not even directed to him. I just talk about the team and baseball in general.

 

He always says that people should use common sense. He should use it here. If he doesn't like what we post and they irritate him so much, he shall put us on ignore and stop replying us, in the end we don't make sense for him, why bother?

[a700hitter]

Is there an argument going on that I should know about? Lol!

[reYoukilis]

If just one of those guys prove they can start next year and help, we are in much better shape than a few months ago. If both prove themselves, then even better.

 

What might turn out to be unfortunate is we may to sell or sit one of them because of Hanley.......

Screw that. Trade him and eat some of the money if we have to. Trade him for some bullpen.

[cp176]

Yes, Castillo is starting to play like the player that we hoped he would be. Hopefully, he will get even better. I have liked Shaw's live bat since Spring Training and was surprised that most people considered him a career AAA roster filler type.

 

What do we do with Hanley? I am unconvinced that he will improve enough in LF to justify keeping his bat. I see 2 choices for him. Move him to first base before 2015 is concluded to see if he can handle it or trade him and eat a chunk of his contract. I am not in the camp thinking that he is our DH in waiting. Ortiz, our best hitter again in 2015, will be back at DH in 2016. Even if he slides next season, he is likely to get enough ABs to vest for another season. If he vests, I would think that it is more than a 50-50 chance that he returns in 2017. By 2018, Hanley will be in the last year of his contract with us. I don't see the upside of having him butcher 3 seasons in the OF to get one season of him at DH. Pack him up and ship him off. His bat isn't worth wrecking the defense and putting on his dog show act.

 

Signing Ramirez in the first place was one of the bigger risks taken in the off-season. I agree with you that the sooner he is gone the clearer the overall picture becomes and this team can move forward. The only place for him next year, might be first base - might. I would far prefer to see what someone like Shaw can do there. Actually using someone who has played the position might be a good thing.

[Spudboy]

Good to see that Pablo has taken the criticism of his weight gain to heart:

 

Band aid approach to a lifetime of over eating.

 

The guy is a disgrace to baseball.

[Kimmi]

Yes, Castillo is starting to play like the player that we hoped he would be. Hopefully, he will get even better. I have liked Shaw's live bat since Spring Training and was surprised that most people considered him a career AAA roster filler type.

 

What do we do with Hanley? I am unconvinced that he will improve enough in LF to justify keeping his bat. I see 2 choices for him. Move him to first base before 2015 is concluded to see if he can handle it or trade him and eat a chunk of his contract. I am not in the camp thinking that he is our DH in waiting. Ortiz, our best hitter again in 2015, will be back at DH in 2016. Even if he slides next season, he is likely to get enough ABs to vest for another season. If he vests, I would think that it is more than a 50-50 chance that he returns in 2017. By 2018, Hanley will be in the last year of his contract with us. I don't see the upside of having him butcher 3 seasons in the OF to get one season of him at DH. Pack him up and ship him off. His bat isn't worth wrecking the defense and putting on his dog show act.

 

I still think it would be a good idea to trade Pablo for Shields in some capacity, thereby killing 2 birds with one stone. We get our #2/3 pitcher and we open up 3B for Hanley. That being with the expectation that JBJ and Castillo hit well enough to stick.

[Kimmi]

Band aid approach to a lifetime of over eating.

 

The guy is a disgrace to baseball.

 

Maybe it's a band aid approach, or maybe Pablo is just as frustrated with the way he's played this season as the fans are. Either way, at least he is working at it and making an effort.

[cp176]

I'm not sure what Red Sox fans expectations were fair for either one of these two guys. They were both given huge contracts to come to Boston and do what? Perform better and to play more than their career norms. I understand the Sandoval signing. There may have been better options and his contract is ridiculous and he is over weight, and everything else but he is an upgrade over what we had. Can we expect more from him? I think so. It was probably even logical to expect Ramirez to be able to play at least a decent left field. He can't. He is not going to be The Red Sox third baseman. Maybe he will be willing to try first base and maybe he won't. I would love to see them move him along somehow. He will probably wind up playing in as many games as he usually does and performing about as well as he usually has. His contract coupled with his inability to play in the field has got to have upper management very frustrated. If Castillo can actually stay healthy, Ramirez should not be seen in Boston's outfield ever again. I think that he would make someone else's team a great outfielder or third baseman or first baseman or maybe even a dh.

[sk7326]

Since this thread is about the hot stove and (presumably) stuff learned from playing out the string ... but ... small sample sizes abound BUT ... could Jackie Bradley have figured out something about hitting??

[sk7326]

I'm not sure what Red Sox fans expectations were fair for either one of these two guys. They were both given huge contracts to come to Boston and do what? Perform better and to play more than their career norms. I understand the Sandoval signing. There may have been better options and his contract is ridiculous and he is over weight, and everything else but he is an upgrade over what we had. Can we expect more from him? I think so. It was probably even logical to expect Ramirez to be able to play at least a decent left field. He can't. He is not going to be The Red Sox third baseman. Maybe he will be willing to try first base and maybe he won't. I would love to see them move him along somehow. He will probably wind up playing in as many games as he usually does and performing about as well as he usually has. His contract coupled with his inability to play in the field has got to have upper management very frustrated. If Castillo can actually stay healthy, Ramirez should not be seen in Boston's outfield ever again. I think that he would make someone else's team a great outfielder or third baseman or first baseman or maybe even a dh.

 

I think Ramirez to 1B might make sense - but it will probably have to be done in the offseason with his buy-in. I know some enjoy the idea of management barking "you will move because you are paid to move" but we know that a move like that tends to require a little more groundwork than that. No reason he can't do that well - athleticism is not a prerequisite for mastering 1B (of course it wasn't for LF either).

[cp176]

I think Ramirez to 1B might make sense - but it will probably have to be done in the offseason with his buy-in. I know some enjoy the idea of management barking "you will move because you are paid to move" but we know that a move like that tends to require a little more groundwork than that. No reason he can't do that well - athleticism is not a prerequisite for mastering 1B (of course it wasn't for LF either).

 

It could very well be his and their only option. It is worth a shot.

[cp176]

Since this thread is about the hot stove and (presumably) stuff learned from playing out the string ... but ... small sample sizes abound BUT ... could Jackie Bradley have figured out something about hitting??

 

He has been a good trooper and at the age of 25 is still young enough to become that player that we all have hoped he would become. He is forcing them to use him everyday I hope. In his case, the old expression about mental to physical seems to hold some truth.

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure what Red Sox fans expectations were fair for either one of these two guys. They were both given huge contracts to come to Boston and do what? Perform better and to play more than their career norms. I understand the Sandoval signing. There may have been better options and his contract is ridiculous and he is over weight, and everything else but he is an upgrade over what we had. Can we expect more from him? I think so. It was probably even logical to expect Ramirez to be able to play at least a decent left field. He can't. He is not going to be The Red Sox third baseman. Maybe he will be willing to try first base and maybe he won't. I would love to see them move him along somehow. He will probably wind up playing in as many games as he usually does and performing about as well as he usually has. His contract coupled with his inability to play in the field has got to have upper management very frustrated. If Castillo can actually stay healthy, Ramirez should not be seen in Boston's outfield ever again. I think that he would make someone else's team a great outfielder or third baseman or first baseman or maybe even a dh.

 

I was not expecting either Pablo or Hanley to play better than their career norms. However, I don't think it's an unfair or an unreasonable expectation for them to play somewhat close to the level at which they've played the last few years.

 

I can understand both signings. Our offense flat out stunk last year. The FO attempted to address that problem by signing two of the best bats available.

 

I will say again, no, no, no to Hanley playing first base. Please, no. If the FO is truly making defense a priority this offseason, then Hanley needs to play elsewhere. I would rather he stay in LF than play 1B.

[Kimmi]

I think Ramirez to 1B might make sense - but it will probably have to be done in the offseason with his buy-in. I know some enjoy the idea of management barking "you will move because you are paid to move" but we know that a move like that tends to require a little more groundwork than that. No reason he can't do that well - athleticism is not a prerequisite for mastering 1B (of course it wasn't for LF either).

 

I don't think it's a lack of athleticism that is at the root of Hanley's defensive woes. I think it's a lack of being in the game 100% mentally. I don't think it's intentional on his part.

[Northern Star]

I was not expecting either Pablo or Hanley to play better than their career norms. However, I don't think it's an unfair or an unreasonable expectation for them to play somewhat close to the level at which they've played the last few years.

 

I can understand both signings. Our offense flat out stunk last year. The FO attempted to address that problem by signing two of the best bats available.

 

I will say again, no, no, no to Hanley playing first base. Please, no. If the FO is truly making defense a priority this offseason, then Hanley needs to play elsewhere. I would rather he stay in LF than play 1B.

 

How on Earth could Hanley f*** up 1B worse than LF? He's just got to pretty much stand there.

[a700hitter]

One of the discussions on NESNs pre-game show is the huge miss not getting Nelson Cruz 2 years in a row. Supposedly, Ortiz recommended getting him both times and Cruz wanted to come to Boston. Our FO never even kicked the tires either year. Not even a phone call. In 2014 we went with the Grady Sizemore experience and Cruz took a 1 year contract with the Orioles. In 2015, we gave multi-year deal to Hanley to change positions and Cruz went to Seattle to continue leading the league in HRs.

 

The fact that NESN is airing this as a " huge miss" is telling. I still think Cherington is gone at the end of the year.

[a700hitter]

I don't think it's a lack of athleticism that is at the root of Hanley's defensive woes. I think it's a lack of being in the game 100% mentally. I don't think it's intentional on his part.

 

So, if it is not intentional, it is not his fault? What does intention have to do with it?

[Kimmi]

How on Earth could Hanley f*** up 1B worse than LF? He's just got to pretty much stand there.

 

There is a lot more that goes into playing first base then just standing there.

[Kimmi]

One of the discussions on NESNs pre-game show is the huge miss not getting Nelson Cruz 2 years in a row. Supposedly, Ortiz recommended getting him both times and Cruz wanted to come to Boston. Our FO never even kicked the tires either year. Not even a phone call. In 2014 we went with the Grady Sizemore experience and Cruz took a 1 year contract with the Orioles. In 2015, we gave multi-year deal to Hanley to change positions and Cruz went to Seattle to continue leading the league in HRs.

 

The fact that NESN is airing this as a " huge miss" is telling. I still think Cherington is gone at the end of the year.

 

No thanks to signing the known PED user. I'm not naive enough to think that no Red Sox player has ever used PEDs, but signing him and having to root for him would be akin to Yankees fans rooting for ARod. Sickening.

[Kimmi]

So, if it is not intentional, it is not his fault? What does intention have to do with it?

 

I didn't say it was not his fault. I think whatever position he ends up playing next year, he needs to put in the extra practice this offseason and he needs to work on his focus.

 

I just don't think that putting a player who is not always in the game mentally at first base is not a good idea.

[a700hitter]

I didn't say it was not his fault. I think whatever position he ends up playing next year, he needs to put in the extra practice this offseason and he needs to work on his focus.

 

I just don't think that putting a player who is not always in the game mentally at first base is not a good idea.

 

So intention doesn't matter at all.

[Kimmi]

So intention doesn't matter at all.

 

Intention does matter. If Hanley's mind is not in the game because he doesn't give a crap, then that would be a whole other issue in addition to the stinky defense.

[a700hitter]

Intention does matter. If Hanley's mind is not in the game because he doesn't give a crap, then that would be a whole other issue in addition to the stinky defense.

 

Either way his mind isn't in the game and he is a detriment to the team. Lack of of intent is not a Plus. Sorry, but that is BS.

[reYoukilis]

No thanks to signing the known PED user. I'm not naive enough to think that no Red Sox player has ever used PEDs, but signing him and having to root for him would be akin to Yankees fans rooting for ARod. Sickening.

 

He may have taken steroids but he's not A-Rod. At least he was quiet about the whole thing and ready to move on.

 

However, it won't matter if our outfielders keep playing the way they've been playing.

[a700hitter]

No thanks to signing the known PED user. I'm not naive enough to think that no Red Sox player has ever used PEDs, but signing him and having to root for him would be akin to Yankees fans rooting for ARod. Sickening.

 

I still love Manny and Papi.

[dupree]

I still love Manny and Papi.

Was it ever proven that Papi used steroids or is he in the same boat of blame as Jeff Bagwell? No proof but they done too well not to use