Who is the Biggest Problem Right Now?

[a700hitter]

I haven't heard any whining on his behalf. I have heard some very sound and rational arguments in his defense.

You mean the sound explanations that strategy for the roster construction was sound and the execution of the strategy was good and that the whole debacle of a season has come down to one bad month of offense, but they could use some extra pitching even though the pitching is not to blame -- at least not in the month of May. But for the lousy hitting in May, we are playoff bound. That sound rational argument? Edited July 15, 2015 by a700hitter

[SoxHop]

Ortiz is also the victim of one of the worst BABIPs in baseball. His other peripherals look good. We should see some 2nd half improvement from him.

 

Really...... Wow...... I would never have thought that.

 

Doesn't one of the stats show he is not getting good contact also? What stat would you look to see that?

[User Name]

Really...... Wow...... I would never have thought that.

 

Doesn't one of the stats show he is not getting good contact also? What stat would you look to see that?

 

Line drive percent is a good one, as well as hard% (percentage of balls that were classified as hit hard off the bat). Both available on fangraphs.

[Spudboy]

Ortiz is also the victim of one of the worst BABIPs in baseball. His other peripherals look good. We should see some 2nd half improvement from him.

 

As long as he continues to hit directly at defenders in the shift his BABIP will remain poor or worsen.

[SoxHop]

As long as he continues to hit directly at defenders in the shift his BABIP will remain poor or worsen.

 

He was quoted as saying the shift will rob him of a number of hits in a year. I thought he mentioned above 40. That is a lot of hits.

[BigPapi]

As long as he continues to hit directly at defenders in the shift his BABIP will remain poor or worsen.

 

That is true. His babip was low last year as well. It's mainly due to how few ground ball hits he gets. When he goes oppo its usually a line drive or a fly ball.

[Kimmi]

ahaaha . . . Oh no. I could see reading what I wrote and thinking I'm a total ass.

 

It's not that way..... you see....... my wife is a simpleton......... she's pretty stupid so I have to correct her all the time.. That's why I wrote that.

 

. . .just kidding.

 

My wife's third language is English. She's actually amazing and is a freakin programmer. It's just that she picked up a few bad habits in English and I correct her as much as I can.

 

It's gotten to the point where I correct peoples English without even thinking about it.

 

Last time I went to a dentist, the Vietnamese gal said something like the fluoride would cost 89 dollar.

I told her you should say 89 dollars, and that you have to add the s when it's plural.

 

She didn't look happy with me, and it ended up being the most painful cleaning I've been through that I can remember.

 

LOL SoxHop

 

No, I didn't think that at all. I assumed that English was probably not her first language. I was trying to make a joke based off of "The woman is always right" cliche.

 

I have a Chinese friend who explained to me that there is no "s" or plural form in her language. She is always saying things like "we have 3 dog".

 

I hate going to the dentist for a cleaning.

[Kimmi]

You mean the sound explanations that strategy for the roster construction was sound and the execution of the strategy was good and that the whole debacle of a season has come down to one bad month of offense, but they could use some extra pitching even though the pitching is not to blame -- at least not in the month of May. But for the lousy hitting in May, we are playoff bound. That sound rational argument?

 

Well, aside from the fact that I have never said that the whole season has come down to the bad offense in May, I have never said that the pitching is not to blame, and I have never said the were are playoff bound but for the hitting in May, yes. That's exactly what I mean.

[a700hitter]

Well, aside from the fact that I have never said that the whole season has come down to the bad offense in May, I have never said that the pitching is not to blame, and I have never said the were are playoff bound but for the hitting in May, yes. That's exactly what I mean.

Did I say that you said those things?

[Kimmi]

Really...... Wow...... I would never have thought that.

 

Doesn't one of the stats show he is not getting good contact also? What stat would you look to see that?

 

His BABIP this season is .231, versus a career BABIP of .299. His line drive rate is 22.1%, higher than his career rate of 20.2%. His % of hard hit balls is 36.5%, down from his career of 39.8%. However, his average batted ball velocity is 92.88 mph, which ranks him 15th out of 310 batters with at least 50 at bats.

[Kimmi]

As long as he continues to hit directly at defenders in the shift his BABIP will remain poor or worsen.

 

I agree that he should try to go the opposite way more often.

[Kimmi]

Did I say that you said those things?

 

Pretty much, yes.

[jd98]

If his option is picked up he would count as $13 million for 2016. The option year is treated as a standalone 1 year contract.

Actually, it's a bit more complicated, and it depends on whether it's a player or club option:

 

 

 

From Eric Seidman at Fangraphs.

 

Thanks guys. Very helpful. And a lot more complicated than I thought. What UN quoted brings up a whole new set of questions. I think I'll just wait for the offseason thread to try and figure anything out.

[mvp 78]

Anyone still think WMB would be a better option? Gross.

[a700hitter]

I have never said that the pitching is not to blame...

I never said that you said this.^

 

I said that you said they could use some extra pitching even though the pitching is not to blame -- at least not in the month of May.

[Bellhorn04]

Thanks guys. Very helpful. And a lot more complicated than I thought. What UN quoted brings up a whole new set of questions. I think I'll just wait for the offseason thread to try and figure anything out.

 

One of the guiding principles of AAV calculations seems to be that only the money that is guaranteed to the player at the outset of the contract is counted. With Buchholz's options there are buyout amounts that the club has to pay if they decline the options - those are the only amounts Buchholz is guaranteed to receive, and they are factored into the AAV amounts.

[jd98]

One of the guiding principles of AAV calculations seems to be that only the money that is guaranteed to the player at the outset of the contract is counted. With Buchholz's options there are buyout amounts that the club has to pay if they decline the options - those are the only amounts Buchholz is guaranteed to receive, and they are factored into the AAV amounts.

 

I think I understand it now, but there's still some things I'm not sure about. It seems very complicated to accurately determine everybody's luxury tax AAV, but it's not too bad to just figure out the differences from year to year. Since I have nothing better to do today, this is what I come up with --

 

subtractions -- Nap 16, Vic 13, Masterson 9.5, Ortiz 6, Breslow 2, DeAza ~3, AGone 3.9 = ~53.4

additions -- Buchholz 5.25, arbitration guys ~5 = ~10.25

 

So that's about $43M in savings. I'm guessing they are over cap this year by 10-15M, so subtract that to get back under and that leaves a rough estimate of 28-33M to spend for next year as a starting point.

[Palodios]

I think I understand it now, but there's still some things I'm not sure about. It seems very complicated to accurately determine everybody's luxury tax AAV, but it's not too bad to just figure out the differences from year to year. Since I have nothing better to do today, this is what I come up with --

 

subtractions -- Nap 16, Vic 13, Masterson 9.5, Ortiz 6, Breslow 2, DeAza ~3, AGone 3.9 = ~53.4

additions -- Buchholz 5.25, arbitration guys ~5 = ~10.25

 

So that's about $43M in savings. I'm guessing they are over cap this year by 10-15M, so subtract that to get back under and that leaves a rough estimate of 28-33M to spend for next year as a starting point.

 

Don't forget 15 million for raises to Miley/Porcello.

[jd98]

Don't forget 15 million for raises to Miley/Porcello.

 

I think for luxury tax purposes, they will be the same in 2016 as in 2015. I did originally do the increase for Porcello, but based on the article UN quoted earlier, his extension is included in calculating 2015 luxury tax AAV.

[Palodios]

I think for luxury tax purposes, they will be the same in 2016 as in 2015. I did originally do the increase for Porcello, but based on the article UN quoted earlier, his extension is included in calculating 2015 luxury tax AAV.

 

I think you're half right. Wade Miley's contract is already calculated into luxury tax, but because Porcello's extension was signed after the start of the season, it doesn't affect luxury tax until next year.

[jd98]

I think you're half right. Wade Miley's contract is already calculated into luxury tax, but because Porcello's extension was signed after the start of the season, it doesn't affect luxury tax until next year.

 

Hmm, you may be right, I'm not sure. I was thinking since he signed it before end of season, it did count. The team's luxury tax salary isn't calculated until after the season. If you're right, that's $8M less available next year.

 

 

Edit: After digging around a bit, I think you are right. I found a similar conversation on another forum. One person had broken down the entire 2016 payroll and it looked to be accurate (edit again: he's got Ortiz for 15M, why is that?), and he had Porcello listed at 20.63M AAV. He ended up with 22.7M available to spend. Another guy said he got $23M. Those are right in the middle of the range I got after subtracting another $8M for Porcello.

Edited July 16, 2015 by jd98

[Bellhorn04]

Here's a little factoid someone posted on the Globe forum.

 

During the Epstein years the Sox had a guy named Craig Shipley who was heavily involved in the international scouting. Shipley signed Iglesias, Tazawa and Bogaerts.

 

One of the first things Ben did as GM was fire Shipley.

[a700hitter]

Here's a little factoid someone posted on the Globe forum.

 

During the Epstein years the Sox had a guy named Craig Shipley who was heavily involved in the international scouting. Shipley signed Iglesias, Tazawa and Bogaerts.

 

One of the first things Ben did as GM was fire Shipley.

i hope that the guy who took his place knows pitching, because Shipley didn't do much there.

[mvp 78]

Don't worry guys, Ben says they are closer to the next great Red Sox team and there's no reason to blow it up.

[Thunder]

Don't worry guys, Ben says they are closer to the next great Red Sox team and there's no reason to blow it up.

 

Well, many out there say that our farm is the best out there. All we need is an ace or two.

[iortiz]

Well, many out there say that our farm is the best out there. All we need is an ace or two.

 

We need at least 2 solid, proven and durable pitchers.

[a700hitter]

Well, many out there say that our farm is the best out there. All we need is an ace or two.

Will they be coming from our farm or will we use the farmhands to acquire them?

[cp176]

Will they be coming from our farm or will we use the farmhands to acquire them?

 

Hey - a good note - a common refrain from the 60's = wait till next year! It is over.

[mvp 78]

Hey - a good note - a common refrain from the 60's = wait till next year! It is over.

 

Wait til next year means a lot less after 3 WS titles.

[Spudboy]

Wait til next year means a lot less after 3 WS titles.

 

And one playoff appearance in six years.

 

Good point.