Who is the Biggest Problem Right Now?

[sk7326]

As GM Ben is responsible for the results that his team achieves. Many serious analysts thought this team was poorly constructed. The coaching staff is also definitely a Cherrington responsibility. He hired them just as he constructed the team.

 

If a team as a whole is under performing then it is a GM's responsibility. That why GMs get fired.

 

I confess I had hoped this team could be competitive in the ALE (and it still may be) only because the division is weak. But we should be under no illusions, the pitching staff sucks. And that is Ben's fault as much as it is anyone's. There were plenty of indications that Kelly, Masterson, Miley and Porcello all came with considerable questionmarks, not to mention the never ending questions about Buchholtz. And we aren't even talking about the bullpen. Why in heaven is Craig Breslow still on this team.

 

Cherrington IMHO irrationally believed that all these question marks would work out in the Red Sox favor. It's like the compulsive gambler who keeps playing roulette hoping his number comes up. Eventually he goes broke.

 

Personally you fire GMs because the talent base has suffered. Porcello, Miley projected to be #3 sort of starters. Masterson was a cheap (for them) gamble. Porcello has underachieved a lot, Miley has underachieved a bit less. But it is not the median of their expected performance - saying otherwise is simply incorrect. The team is not untalented. Now where you can hold Cherington accountable might be the coaching staff. But that is a more complex question. I actually don't think the GM expected ANY of the pitchers to turn into the 71 Orioles. He was expecting the lineup to do the lifting - which is a perfectly acceptable way to win, and works frequently. THAT is the differentiator this season (in May in particular where all of the bad record was created).

[Bellhorn04]

The reasoning was not faulty. They aren't the most talented bunch, but even with that, with the exception of Buchholz, they are all performing below their talent levels, most by a large degree.

 

It's the underperformance of the players, which lies mostly on the shoulders of the players themselves, then on the coaching staff.

 

Ben is not responsible for what happens on the field. He is responsible for trying to fix the problem, but he is not responsible for the problem itself.

 

I respect this position, but...

 

I think Ben really rolled the dice with the rotation. While it's true that 4 of the 5 are below their career numbers, all 5 of these guys had something scary in their numbers too. The only guy whose underperformance so far is genuinely shocking is Porcello. All these guys had a lot of downside risk. That's the way I see it anyway.

[Elktonnick]

Ski, Nothing can change the fact that this pitching staff was poorly constructed. One can rationalize all the excuses about projections. The simple fact is that BC picked up other teams rejects and hoped they would all deliver. And they haven't. Losers always make up excuses as to why they are losers.

[Spudboy]

And this team should not be losers.

[User Name]

As GM Ben is responsible for the results that his team achieves. Many serious analysts thought this team was poorly constructed. The coaching staff is also definitely a Cherrington responsibility. He hired them just as he constructed the team.

 

If a team as a whole is under performing then it is a GM's responsibility. That why GMs get fired.

 

I confess I had hoped this team could be competitive in the ALE (and it still may be) only because the division is weak. But we should be under no illusions, the pitching staff sucks. And that is Ben's fault as much as it is anyone's. There were plenty of indications that Kelly, Masterson, Miley and Porcello all came with considerable questionmarks, not to mention the never ending questions about Buchholtz. And we aren't even talking about the bullpen. Why in heaven is Craig Breslow still on this team.

 

Cherrington IMHO irrationally believed that all these question marks would work out in the Red Sox favor. It's like the compulsive gambler who keeps playing roulette hoping his number comes up. Eventually he goes broke.

 

Why do you always come up with the "many serious analysts" or "many serious publications" ********? You can present your arguments yourself, and you never present your "sources" anyways. Cut that s*** out.

[mvp 78]

And this team should not be losers.

 

Why not? They're just modeled after their fat loser fanbase.

[Kimmi]

As GM Ben is responsible for the results that his team achieves. Many serious analysts thought this team was poorly constructed. The coaching staff is also definitely a Cherrington responsibility. He hired them just as he constructed the team.

 

If a team as a whole is under performing then it is a GM's responsibility. That why GMs get fired.

 

I confess I had hoped this team could be competitive in the ALE (and it still may be) only because the division is weak. But we should be under no illusions, the pitching staff sucks. And that is Ben's fault as much as it is anyone's. There were plenty of indications that Kelly, Masterson, Miley and Porcello all came with considerable questionmarks, not to mention the never ending questions about Buchholtz. And we aren't even talking about the bullpen. Why in heaven is Craig Breslow still on this team.

 

Cherrington IMHO irrationally believed that all these question marks would work out in the Red Sox favor. It's like the compulsive gambler who keeps playing roulette hoping his number comes up. Eventually he goes broke.

 

It is the GM's responsibility to address the issues and to try to correct them, but I don't think he can be held responsible for the way the players have underperformed. If Ben had signed Clayton Kershaw last offseason, and then for some inexplicable reason he had an ERA of 6 this season, would that be Ben's fault? I know that Kershaw would be a much more extreme case, and I know that our pitchers had more question marks, but the underlying point remains the same.

 

I don't think Ben was gambling on everything working out in the Sox favor, but nor was he expecting almost everything to work against us. The staff was not supposed to be great, but mediocre. They have been worse than that. I don't think the staff is the biggest reason why this team is in last place. I still say that if the offense had been performing to expected levels all season, the Sox would be leading the division.

 

Some analysts might have thought the team was poorly constructed, but most that I read thought the Sox would be competitive. More analysts had the Sox winning the division than any other team. The computer models all favored the Sox. On paper, this team should be leading the division.

[Kimmi]

I respect this position, but...

 

I think Ben really rolled the dice with the rotation. While it's true that 4 of the 5 are below their career numbers, all 5 of these guys had something scary in their numbers too. The only guy whose underperformance so far is genuinely shocking is Porcello. All these guys had a lot of downside risk. That's the way I see it anyway.

 

I agree that they all had question marks, but then again, no player is a guarantee. IMO, the only ones who had a lot of downside risk were Masterson and Buchholz. There was no reason to expect Porcello to pitch considerably worse than he pitched last season. Same with Miley and Kelly. Last I checked, which was several weeks ago, these guys were not just underperforming, they were having career worst seasons.

 

I understand people not liking the way the staff was constructed. I didn't particularly like it myself. However, it should have been enough to get the Sox to the trading deadline with the offense that they were supposed to have. Even with all of the problems that they've had, they may still get to the deadline in this race.

[Kimmi]

Why not? They're just modeled after their fat loser fanbase.

 

Who are you calling a fat loser?

[Bellhorn04]

I agree that they all had question marks, but then again, no player is a guarantee. IMO, the only ones who had a lot of downside risk were Masterson and Buchholz. There was no reason to expect Porcello to pitch considerably worse than he pitched last season. Same with Miley and Kelly. Last I checked, which was several weeks ago, these guys were not just underperforming, they were having career worst seasons.

 

The most innings Kelly has ever pitched is 124. Last year he only pitched 96.1. He pitched worse in 2014 than he did in 2013. I'm not sure how anyone could even project a guy like Kelly for a full season.

[Kimmi]

The most innings Kelly has ever pitched is 124. Last year he only pitched 96.1. He pitched worse in 2014 than he did in 2013. I'm not sure how anyone could even project a guy like Kelly for a full season.

 

The plan was for the staff to be good enough to keep the team in the race until the deadline, when reinforcements could be brought in. I'm not sure that the FO expected him to be in the rotation for a full season. His ERA last season, while not great, is still almost a run and a half better than it is this season. IMO, there was no reason to expect that level of dropoff.

[Elktonnick]

It is the GM's responsibility to address the issues and to try to correct them, but I don't think he can be held responsible for the way the players have underperformed. If Ben had signed Clayton Kershaw last offseason, and then for some inexplicable reason he had an ERA of 6 this season, would that be Ben's fault? I know that Kershaw would be a much more extreme case, and I know that our pitchers had more question marks, but the underlying point remains the same.

 

I don't think Ben was gambling on everything working out in the Sox favor, but nor was he expecting almost everything to work against us. The staff was not supposed to be great, but mediocre. They have been worse than that. I don't think the staff is the biggest reason why this team is in last place. I still say that if the offense had been performing to expected levels all season, the Sox would be leading the division.

 

Some analysts might have thought the team was poorly constructed, but most that I read thought the Sox would be competitive. More analysts had the Sox winning the division than any other team. The computer models all favored the Sox. On paper, this team should be leading the division.[/quote)

 

 

Like I said I too drank the kool-aid about this team being better than I is. Yes, many analysts did "project" the club to be better than it is doing but many more didn't. Jim Bowden and the ones I listened to on MLB radio for example thought the team was poorly constructed. These folks proved right. Even those who were more optimistic did so because of the weakness of the ALE.

 

Where I come from, leadership has to accept the responsibility for the overall performance of their organizations , at least that's the way it used to be in this country. BC may not play the game but he assembled this team. Good bad or ugly he has to bear the blame for it's overall failure just has he gets the credit when it is successful. Whatever happened to the buck stops here.

Edited July 11, 2015 by Elktonnick

[Bellhorn04]

The plan was for the staff to be good enough to keep the team in the race until the deadline, when reinforcements could be brought in.

 

Did Ben or someone in the organization ever actually say this?

[Elktonnick]

Did Ben or someone in the organization ever actually say this?

 

I think your question is a good one. A lot of posters including yours truly surmised this was the possible plan but I don't recall anyone from within the Red Sox organization acknowledging that this was their thinking.

[Kimmi]

Like I said I too drank the kool-aid about this team being better than I is. Yes, many analysts did "project" the club to be better than it is doing but many more didn't. Jim Bowden and the ones I listened to on MLB radio for example thought the team was poorly constructed. These folks proved right. Even those who were more optimistic did so because of the weakness of the ALE.

 

Where I come from, leadership has to accept the responsibility for the overall performance of their organizations , at least that's the way it used to be in this country. BC may not play the game but he assembled this team. Good bad or ugly he has to bear the blame for it's overall failure just has he gets the credit when it is successful. Whatever happened to the buck stops here.

 

More analysts predicted the Red Sox to finish in first place than not, and they had many more first place predictions than any other team. For your reading pleasure:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25949

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2015-staff-predictions/

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/preview15/story/_/id/12588378/expert-team-predictions-2015-mlb-season

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/116252342/mlb-experts-make-picks-who-will-win-it-all-in-2015

 

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/04/02/playoff-picks-awards-predictions-mvp-cy-young-rookie-of-the-year

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/mlb-predictions-2015--standings--playoffs--awards-and-more-043325435.html

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-predictions-playoff-picks-mvp-cy-young-surprise-team-flop-team/

 

FTR, Ben has taken full ownership of and responsibilty for the team, which I admire and respect. He is not trying to pass the blame onto anyone else. However, I think he did a good job during the offseason and I cannot blame him for the players not performing up to expectations.

[Kimmi]

Did Ben or someone in the organization ever actually say this?

 

No, but isn't that pretty much the plan for any GM going into the season? That the pieces that he put in place will be good enough to keep his team in the race until reinforcements could be brought in, if needed?

 

He did say that rotations are not stagnant, and that he felt like the team had the pieces within the organization if and when they were needed. Youngsters in the minor league system are part of the reinforcements.

 

Contrary to popular belief here, Ben is not stupid. Do you think that he, not to mention his entire scouting and analytics team, banked on Kelly giving the team 200 innings when he's never done it before? I'm sure that they hoped he would, but I'm also sure that they had midseason reincforcements in mind.

[Kimmi]

I think your question is a good one. A lot of posters including yours truly surmised this was the possible plan but I don't recall anyone from within the Red Sox organization acknowledging that this was their thinking.

 

I also don't think that any GM would openly state that they hope their pitching is just good enough to get them to the deadline, when they can bring in someone better.

[Thunder]

Who are you calling a fat loser?

 

I think he's calling himself a fat loser.

[Bellhorn04]

Contrary to popular belief here, Ben is not stupid. Do you think that he, not to mention his entire scouting and analytics team, banked on Kelly giving the team 200 innings when he's never done it before? I'm sure that they hoped he would, but I'm also sure that they had midseason reincforcements in mind.

 

No, I don't think Ben is stupid. In this case I think he adopted a strategy with the pitching that was too risky for a team that has as much money as this team does. He really rolled the dice and went against the grain of what almost everyone expected, which was that the Sox would acquire a #1 starter in the offseason.

[Spudboy]

No, I don't think Ben is stupid. In this case I think he adopted a strategy with the pitching that was too risky for a team that has as much money as this team does. He really rolled the dice and went against the grain of what almost everyone expected, which was that the Sox would acquire a #1 starter in the offseason.

 

This is why I said that this team should not be losers.

[jd98]

I agree that they all had question marks, but then again, no player is a guarantee. IMO, the only ones who had a lot of downside risk were Masterson and Buchholz. There was no reason to expect Porcello to pitch considerably worse than he pitched last season. Same with Miley and Kelly. Last I checked, which was several weeks ago, these guys were not just underperforming, they were having career worst seasons.

 

4 of the 5 SP had career worst seasons last season, so it's not like these current career worst seasons are coming out of nowhere, except for Porcello. Buchholz and Porcello have flip-flopped, the other 3 are just continuing the direction they were already heading. It's reasonable to expect they would do better, but it's not surprising in the least that they haven't.

[a700hitter]

The reasoning was not faulty. They aren't the most talented bunch, but even with that, with the exception of Buchholz, they are all performing below their talent levels, most by a large degree.

 

It's the underperformance of the players, which lies mostly on the shoulders of the players themselves, then on the coaching staff.

 

Ben is not responsible for what happens on the field. He is responsible for trying to fix the problem, but he is not responsible for the problem itself.

the reasoning was faulty, because performing as expected this would have been a 4 ERA staff-- that is the track record over the career of the group. If they had performed as expected putting up a 4 ERA they would have been a 3rd or 4th place team. The pitchers have underperformed and they are a last place team. What he designed was a staff that if it performed up to expectations would not have gotten this team to the playoffs.

[User Name]

I don't get the whining about Miley. Save for a couple blow-ups, he has been solid.

[Thunder]

I don't get the whining about Miley. Save for a couple blow-ups, he has been solid.

 

I'd go as far to say that he's been the most consistent starter we have, minus Eduardo.

[a700hitter]

The staff is constructed with # 4's and 5's with an injury prone inconsistent #3. That had a low probability of success.

[Kimmi]

No, I don't think Ben is stupid. In this case I think he adopted a strategy with the pitching that was too risky for a team that has as much money as this team does. He really rolled the dice and went against the grain of what almost everyone expected, which was that the Sox would acquire a #1 starter in the offseason.

 

I was sure that Ben would acquire a #1 pitcher this offseason too, but his strategy, in theory, should work. It's not a poplular strategy, but that doesn't mean it's a faulty one. It's difficult for any strategy to work when all facets of the team were underperforming - pitching, offense, and defense, not to mention losing our 2 starting catchers so early.

 

IMO, the biggest reason why the Sox are in the hole that they are in has not been the SP, but rather the offense in May, and our offense was supposed to be a sure thing.

[Kimmi]

4 of the 5 SP had career worst seasons last season, so it's not like these current career worst seasons are coming out of nowhere, except for Porcello. Buchholz and Porcello have flip-flopped, the other 3 are just continuing the direction they were already heading. It's reasonable to expect they would do better, but it's not surprising in the least that they haven't.

 

This is why you need to look at peripheral stats and other factors, and not go by ERA alone. Masterson, Buchholz, and Miley all pitched better than their ERAs. Masterson was injured last year. Porcello has been the victim of terrible defenses behind him. Vazquez and Hanigan are both highly touted defensive catchers, especially in the area of pitch framing. IMO, the level of underperformance this year is surprising.

[Kimmi]

the reasoning was faulty, because performing as expected this would have been a 4 ERA staff-- that is the track record over the career of the group. If they had performed as expected putting up a 4 ERA they would have been a 3rd or 4th place team. The pitchers have underperformed and they are a last place team. What he designed was a staff that if it performed up to expectations would not have gotten this team to the playoffs.

 

They are where they are mostly because of the putrid offense in May. If the offense scored and average of 5 runs/game in May, even with the stafff underperforming, we'd be a first place team.

[Elktonnick]

I was sure that Ben would acquire a #1 pitcher this offseason too, but his strategy, in theory, should work. It's not a poplular strategy, but that doesn't mean it's a faulty one. It's difficult for any strategy to work when all facets of the team were underperforming - pitching, offense, and defense, not to mention losing our 2 starting catchers so early.

 

IMO, the biggest reason why the Sox are in the hole that they are in has not been the SP, but rather the offense in May, and our offense was supposed to be a sure thing.

 

It's the pitching. It is always pitching. Besides a very weak rotation, the bullpen isn't that solid either. The reason the sox are below 500 is because their pitching is the worst in the American league by ERA , only Philadelphia and Colorado have a poorer team ERA than Boston. BTW I believe only one team in all of MLB has averaged more than 5 run per game and that is the Blue Jays who have 476 runs through 90 games. Expecting a team to score 5 runs per game is somewhat unrealistic in today's game with offenses down throughout baseball.

Edited July 12, 2015 by Elktonnick

[User Name]

It's intellectually dishonest to take the heat off of the offense. The putrid May record was mostly caused by a huge stretch of May where the team was averaging 2 runs per game. The '98 Braves couldn't have had a winning month scoring two runs per game.