Who is the Biggest Problem Right Now?

[SoxnCycles]

A fan that wants a player on his team to fail so he can "be right" is a s***** fan.

 

There's always a couple on every board.

Baffling...

[SoxnCycles]

I am not in the camp that wants to trade Buchholz.

 

If they are convinced they're not going to compete this year and can get decent prospects in return I'd do it.

 

But, they had better be ready to spend on free agent pitching next year.

[Kimmi]

IMO last year was a fluke year. He is more likely a 4.5 ERA pitcher, probably little worse. Why? He doesn't have stuff. He will always depend on his defense. This is why WAR loves Ks.

 

Porcello might not have had the best K rate in 2014, but he had a good BB rate, giving him an above average K/BB ratio, which WAR also loves. He also had an above average HR/9 rate. His xFIP last year was 3.68. Even this year with his atrocious ERA, his xFIP is 4.10.

 

Yes, Porcello will depend on his defense. There is nothing wrong with that if he has a good infield defense behind him, which should be the case this year. Detroit's infield defense has always been terrible. It's no coincidence that Porcello's ERA went down significantly when Detroit got rid of Fielder and moved Miggy to first base.

 

All signs pointed towards Porcello pitching more like 2014 than pitching towards his career numbers.

[Kimmi]

It is baffling - because 22-28 year olds tend to IMPROVE because that's what learning is. To look at the sample size here and just say "yep, he is what he is" makes as much sense as doing that about his high school numbers. The idea was because he was improving over his tour in Detroit, and that he is just 26, and that he was leaving a horrible defense, that he would be more productive.

 

 

Thank you.

[Kimmi]

A fan that wants a player on his team to fail so he can "be right" is a s***** fan.

 

Truer words were never spoken.

[Kimmi]

Yup, it is pure speculation.

 

If you sign a 80 M pitcher, you just let him pitch as he used to. Thing is that he started very slow the season in his first 4 starts reason why I think he changed his approach. In fact, in the very next 4, he settled down (likely he made some adjustments), but after that and till now he has been horrible.

 

You are going to believe that because you want to believe that Porcello is a terrible pitcher. Your opinion is far more speculative than that of Gammons, who at least has some access to the team.

 

Here is some more on Porcello's struggles and his change in approach:

 

On Saturday Porcello threw just 12 two-seamers compared to 46 four-seamers. Through his first eight starts, in which he had a 4.26 ERA, his two-seam/four-seam mix was almost even -- he averaged 32 four-seamers and 32 two-seamers per game in that stretch, according to BrooksBaseball.net.

 

Farrell said it's not about Porcello trying to be too fine, he's just missing his location.

 

"You see misexecuted pitches that lead to pitches just off the edge," Farrell said. "Inside of those innings where those mislocations are happening it's in the middle of the plate, it's not to the extreme. That's what we're trying to slow the game down in those moments and be more clear with the execution."

 

Earlier this season, Porcello, who's never been a strikeout pitcher, was striking out six and seven batters consistently through April.

 

"If you look back early on this year, there was some newfound velocity, and he was getting a greater number of strikeouts with some swing-and-miss up in the zone," Farrell said. "In the interim, what's happened is it's taken away from the consistent release point in the bottom of the strike zone. There's maybe a little bit more reliance on velocity that's caused him to rush toward home plate. He's losing the downhill plane and the leverage to his pitches. That's what we're trying to reestablish, particularly in those hot innings."

[Bellhorn04]

If they are convinced they're not going to compete this year and can get decent prospects in return I'd do it.

 

But, they had better be ready to spend on free agent pitching next year.

 

I think he has it in him to be one of the best pitchers in baseball for the next 5 years. I'd really hate to see him do it for another team after all they've invested in him.

[Kimmi]

I am not in the camp that wants to trade Buchholz.

 

I am not in the camp that wants to trade anyone with the intent of blowing the team up and looking toward next year.

[iortiz]

It is baffling - because 22-28 year olds tend to IMPROVE because that's what learning is. To look at the sample size here and just say "yep, he is what he is" makes as much sense as doing that about his high school numbers. The idea was because he was improving over his tour in Detroit, and that he is just 26, and that he was leaving a horrible defense, that he would be more productive.

 

Miley has been a little less baffling although given his 3.8 ERA in a launching pad in the NL, you'd have expected his numbers to go up in the AL but not to the degree. Kelly has been inconsistent and Buchholz has largely been solid.

 

 

Learning at 80 M?, no thanks. His lessons are very costly to me.

 

He is supposed to be here to make difference. It has not happened this far, just the opposite.

Edited June 22, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Porcello might not have had the best K rate in 2014, but he had a good BB rate, giving him an above average K/BB ratio, which WAR also loves. He also had an above average HR/9 rate. His xFIP last year was 3.68. Even this year with his atrocious ERA, his xFIP is 4.10.

 

Yes, Porcello will depend on his defense. There is nothing wrong with that if he has a good infield defense behind him, which should be the case this year. Detroit's infield defense has always been terrible. It's no coincidence that Porcello's ERA went down significantly when Detroit got rid of Fielder and moved Miggy to first base.

 

All signs pointed towards Porcello pitching more like 2014 than pitching towards his career numbers.

 

1 year doesn't give you signs of anything. Not in baseball, and his "youth" means nothing when you are untalented.

 

I think the results have spoken by itself.

[iortiz]

You are going to believe that because you want to believe that Porcello is a terrible pitcher. Your opinion is far more speculative than that of Gammons, who at least has some access to the team.

 

Here is some more on Porcello's struggles and his change in approach:

 

Oh, it is not a matter of what I want to believe LOL! He is a terrible pitcher. The numbers are there.

 

I was just trying to translate his performance in those splits.

 

Said that, no one will help him from BABIP death since everyone makes him contact. Everyone. Sometimes he will stay semi-alive thanks to his defense but sometimes he will be destroyed make him inconsistent and very difficult to stay in ERAs below 4. Do not believe me? We have unfortunately 4 more years to see my prediction. Time is giving me reason thus far.

[sk7326]

Learning at 80 M?, no thanks. His lessons are very costly to me.

 

He is supposed to be here to make difference. It has not happened this far, just the opposite.

 

No - Porcello had come off of three years with over 175 IP, and FIPs trending correctly. He was only 26, had shown legitimate improvement and real durability. You look at one comp - Homer Bailey got 6 years 105 million while being 2 years older and less of a track record of pitching innings. James Shields signed for a similar figure (slightly less but whatever) and he was going into his decline and had never pitched in a hitters environment.

 

I hear the "mm mmm mm 20 million mmm mmm" like the 20M is sacrosanct. 20M a year in the 2016 FA market WILL NOT BUY YOU A #2 starter. It will buy you a guy who looks a hell of a lot like Rick Porcello - and probably without any sort of upside projection.

[a700hitter]

It is baffling - because 22-28 year olds tend to IMPROVE because that's what learning is. To look at the sample size here and just say "yep, he is what he is" makes as much sense as doing that about his high school numbers. The idea was because he was improving over his tour in Detroit, and that he is just 26, and that he was leaving a horrible defense, that he would be more productive.

 

Miley has been a little less baffling although given his 3.8 ERA in a launching pad in the NL, you'd have expected his numbers to go up in the AL but not to the degree. Kelly has been inconsistent and Buchholz has largely been solid.

 

Pitchers with 1,100 innings under their belt don't usually improve from the bottom of the rotation to the top of the rotation. In the rare cases that it does happen, it is often a junk baller like Jamie Moyer or a knuckleballer like Dickey. The examples of sinker balling back of the rotation becoming top of the rotation power pitchers after accumulating 1,100 innings would be hard to find. Even if improvement over his career 4.40 ERA was to be expected, a 3.80 ERA would have been a huge improvement. Expecting anything beyond that was pure fan enthusiasm. A 3.80 from Porcello still would have had the group of 5 projecting at a combined ERA of 4, and that is not good. It isn't even mediocre. It is bad.

[iortiz]

No - Porcello had come off of three years with over 175 IP, and FIPs trending correctly. He was only 26, had shown legitimate improvement and real durability. You look at one comp - Homer Bailey got 6 years 105 million while being 2 years older and less of a track record of pitching innings. James Shields signed for a similar figure (slightly less but whatever) and he was going into his decline and had never pitched in a hitters environment.

 

I hear the "mm mmm mm 20 million mmm mmm" like the 20M is sacrosanct. 20M a year in the 2016 FA market WILL NOT BUY YOU A #2 starter. It will buy you a guy who looks a hell of a lot like Rick Porcello - and probably without any sort of upside projection.

 

With 20 M/Y you have an horizon of possibilities every year and cheaper for a 4.4/2.5 WAR pitcher via Trades/FA/Farm. Thing is to pull the trigger at the right candidate. This contract is absurd. Numbers are talking by itself.

[iortiz]

Sk, what are the numbers that you are expecting from him to call it deal?

[a700hitter]

Truer words were never spoken.

 

A fan that travels from Mexico to Fenway Park with his wife at his own expense to see his favorite team play on opening day is a great fan. You shouldn't be agreeing with him (UN) about iortiz as he is fairly biased against him. He did psychotically declare that he hates him with the intensity of 1000 burning suns. He's not quite objective about iortiz.

 

More appropriately, a fan that cannot admit that a starting pitcher with a 5.25 ERA at the end of June is at best a back of the rotation pitcher is in denial. The guy (Porcello) is costing me a case of beer. I knew that he wasn't a top of the rotation guy, but he fell way short if my expectations too.

Edited June 22, 2015 by a700hitter

[sk7326]

Sk, what are the numbers that you are expecting from him to call it deal?

 

honestly, if he were giving 180+ IP per year at a 3.7 or so ERA it would have been plenty fair. Not a wholesale price, but fair.

 

Porcello is not getting groundballs at the rate he was earlier in his career - that's it. Indeed the left side of the defense has been an unforeseen problem which has mangled much of the run prevention concept.

[iortiz]

A fan that travels from Mexico to Fenway Park with his wife at his own expense to see his favorite team play on opening day is a great fan. You shouldn't be agreeing with him about iortiz as he is fairly biased against him. He did psychotically declare that he hates him with the intensity of 1000 burning suns. He's not quite objective about iortiz.

 

More appropriately, a fan that cannot admit that a starting pitcher with a 5.25 ERA at the end of June is at best a back of the rotation pitcher is in denial. The guy is costing me a case of beer. I knew that he wasn't a top of the rotation guy, but he fell way short if my expectations too.

 

Well, as you know, I had been planning that trip for several years but my job and other things did not give me the chance to make it. Fortunately this year I had the opportunity to go and It was really a great experience. I will try to go every year, even if Porcello is on the mound LOL!

 

Regarding Porcello, It doesn't matter what I want or think. As I said, I would have wanted that Porcello proved me wrong. Unfourtunatly what Porcello has shown which is very bad, is actually what I projected, even worse. I think I was the only one around the board who was against this trade, and obviously that extension. That contract is going to be a nightmare.

 

Porcello is a rich man, I do not blame him or his agent at all. As I said, this is on Ben. He should have waited a dozen of games or so before giving him that stupid contract mostly if they were going to change his approach (still speculation)

 

Anyways, every fan doesn't like a specific palyer(s) for whatever reason and it doesn't make them "s*****" fans haha.

 

While I talk about Porcello, U? loves to insult and star s*** up. It's his modus operandi.

Edited June 22, 2015 by iortiz

[a700hitter]

Well, as you know, I had been planning that trip for several years but my job and other things did not given me the chance to make it. Fortunately this year I had the opportunity to go and It was really a great experience. I will try to go every year, even if Porcello is on the mound LOL!

 

Regarding Porcello, It doesn't matter what I want or think. As I said, I would have wanted that Porcello proved me wrong. Unfourtunatly what Porcello has showed which is very bad, is actually what I projected, even worse. I think I was the only one around the board who was against this trade, and obviously that extension. That contract is going to be a nightmare.

 

Porcello is a rich man, I do not blame him or his agent at all. As I said, this is on Ben. He should have waited a dozen of games or so before giving him that stupid contract mostly if they were going to change his approach (still speculation)

 

Anyways, every fan doesn't like a specific palyer(s) for whatever reason and it doesn't make them "s*****" fans haha.

 

While I talk about Porcello, U? loves to insult and star s*** up. It's his modus operandi.

 

We could have gotten a very similar pitcher off the waiver wire this week. Dillon Gee is the same type of pitcher. He is two years older, but has a lot fewer innings on his arm. These sinker balling pitch to contact guys are a dime a dozen. Paying one of them $80 million is astounding poor judgment. Chen Ming Wang was much better than Porcello before Wang got injured, and I don't think the Yankees gave him a large long term contract.

[iortiz]

honestly, if he were giving 180+ IP per year at a 3.7 or so ERA it would have been plenty fair. Not a wholesale price, but fair.

 

Porcello is not getting groundballs at the rate he was earlier in his career - that's it. Indeed the left side of the defense has been an unforeseen problem which has mangled much of the run prevention concept.

3.7 is a very nice number and I would call it deal as well.

 

On the other hand it sounds like a quantum leap for a guy like Porcello to me, mostly these days. I think that he will post what his career numbers suggests, probably bit worse and at best around 4.2.

[iortiz]

We could have gotten a very similar pitcher off the waiver wire this week. Dillon Gee is the same type of pitcher. He is two years older, but has a lot fewer innings on his arm. These sinker balling pitch to contact guys are a dime a dozen. Paying one of them $80 million is astounding poor judgment. Chen Ming Wang was much better than Porcello before Wang got injured, and I don't think the Yankees gave him a large long term contract.

As I said to SK, every year emerge several pitchers and way cheaper, thing is to pull the right trigger. If you want a 4.4 ERA pitcher, the possibilities are even more every year via trade/FA/farm.

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello is just the 3rd pitcher since 1900 to have 10 wins in each of his first 6 seasons, and the fastest to 80 career wins since Bert Blyleven.

[cp176]

Porcello is just the 3rd pitcher since 1900 to have 10 wins in each of his first 6 seasons, and the fastest to 80 career wins since Bert Blyleven.

 

Oh Come on now Bellhorn. We have been instructed this year that new wave thinking considers a pitcher's win loss record not very important. Only old no nothings like me still consider this a reasonable stat to consider.

[iortiz]

Since when wins are important? Haha

 

I think Bell is kidding.

[Elktonnick]

Well, as you know, I had been planning that trip for several years but my job and other things did not give me the chance to make it. Fortunately this year I had the opportunity to go and It was really a great experience. I will try to go every year, even if Porcello is on the mound LOL!

 

Regarding Porcello, It doesn't matter what I want or think. As I said, I would have wanted that Porcello proved me wrong. Unfourtunatly what Porcello has showed which is very bad, is actually what I projected, even worse. I think I was the only one around the board who was against this trade, and obviously that extension. That contract is going to be a nightmare.

 

Porcello is a rich man, I do not blame him or his agent at all. As I said, this is on Ben. He should have waited a dozen of games or so before giving him that stupid contract mostly if they were going to change his approach (still speculation)

 

Anyways, every fan doesn't like a specific palyer(s) for whatever reason and it doesn't make them "s*****" fans haha.

 

While I talk about Porcello, U? loves to insult and star s*** up. It's his modus operandi.

 

That's why I have had him on permanent ignore for more than a year. Based on past experience, nothing he posts is ever worth reading.

[Bellhorn04]

Oh Come on now Bellhorn. We have been instructed this year that new wave thinking considers a pitcher's win loss record not very important. Only old no nothings like me still consider this a reasonable stat to consider.

 

I just became aware of these nuggets and I had to put them up for fun.

[a700hitter]

Oh Come on now Bellhorn. We have been instructed this year that new wave thinking considers a pitcher's win loss record not very important. Only old no nothings like me still consider this a reasonable stat to consider.

 

Touché lol!

[mvp 78]

Comparing someone to Bert Blyleven is quite the backhanded compliment...

 

It's like saying, gee this new candy bar has the upside of Krackel.

[Bellhorn04]

Comparing someone to Bert Blyleven is quite the backhanded compliment...

 

It's like saying, gee this new candy bar has the upside of Krackel.

 

A career ERA of 3.31 (ERA+ of 118) in 4,970 innings isn't so bad.

[a700hitter]

A career ERA of 3.31 (ERA+ of 118) in 4,970 innings isn't so bad.

 

I saw Bert Blyleven pitch. Porcello is no Bert Blyleven.