2015 Red Sox In-Season Thread

[iortiz]

Well, if this keeps going this way, Offesen and pitching sucking, there will be one and only one responsible for this mess; the one who assembled the team and probably the strategy specially regarding pitching will change going forward. Edited May 8, 2015 by iortiz

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

That's not something you typically want to hear from a proctologist...

hahahaha

[cp176]

I won't boo him but they should bench him until his love-coma passes. The problem is that Craig is worse.

 

Maybe Craig and Napoli should switch women. Who were the two Yankee pitchers who pulled that one off?

[Kimmi]

Logic? In MY Talksox?

 

He's been doing that a lot lately.

 

He must be Dutchy.

[Kimmi]

I was reading an article about Buchholz' advanced stats and how he should turn it around and I don't buy it. I'm a big proponent of stats but there are things they can't explain. Buchholz' mental issues are some of the things stats can't explain.

 

There is no way Buchholz can continue underperformong his xFIP by 3 runs. That is unheard of. If you're talking about the Fangraphs article, did you see the graph with the red dot that represented Clay? His ERA-xFIP is waaaaayyyy out there.

[a700hitter]

There is no way Buchholz can continue underperformong his xFIP by 3 runs. That is unheard of. If you're talking about the Fangraphs article, did you see the graph with the red dot that represented Clay? His ERA-xFIP is waaaaayyyy out there.

 

How did those number look last year?

[jad]

Enough already. It's pointless to imagine Nava (whom I've always liked) or Craig is going to turn things around magically. I believe Nava can be sent down, correct? (actually, he wouldn't refuse, since it would essentially mean the end of his career); Craig can be released. Their value right now is at its lowest-- that is, unless they continue to play. Bradley needs a final shot. Even his anemic .200 average from last year looks formidable compared to what these guys are giving.

[a700hitter]

Enough already. It's pointless to imagine Nava (whom I've always liked) or Craig is going to turn things around magically. I believe Nava can be sent down, correct? (actually, he wouldn't refuse, since it would essentially mean the end of his career); Craig can be released. Their value right now is at its lowest-- that is, unless they continue to play. Bradley needs a final shot. Even his anemic .200 average from last year looks formidable compared to what these guys are giving.

This is bizarre but true.

[Northern Star]

Enough already. It's pointless to imagine Nava (whom I've always liked) or Craig is going to turn things around magically. I believe Nava can be sent down, correct? (actually, he wouldn't refuse, since it would essentially mean the end of his career); Craig can be released. Their value right now is at its lowest-- that is, unless they continue to play. Bradley needs a final shot. Even his anemic .200 average from last year looks formidable compared to what these guys are giving.

 

Craig is owed $20mil after this year, so no. I don't see them eating it.

[jad]

Well, they're eating it one way or another. It would be better to pay someone to hit .150 for another team than to pay them to hit for you.

[a700hitter]

There is no way Buchholz can continue underperformong his xFIP by 3 runs. That is unheard of. If you're talking about the Fangraphs article, did you see the graph with the red dot that represented Clay? His ERA-xFIP is waaaaayyyy out there.

 

His xfip to this date in 2015 is a full run lower than his career xfip. In 2014, his xfip came in at exactly his career mark and he put up a 5.34 ERA. Wouldn't his history suggest that his xfip is likely to normalize closer to his career mark? His current xfip is the lowest of his career by .40.

[Spudboy]

His xfip to this date in 2015 is a full run lower than his career xfip. In 2014, his xfip came in at exactly his career mark and he put up a 5.34 ERA. Wouldn't his history suggest that his xfip is likely to normalize closer to his career mark? His current xfip is the lowest of his career by .40.

 

So he sucks.

 

I really do not need advanced metrics to tell me that.

 

Why is this even being discussed? Is everyone here f***ing blind?

[a700hitter]

So he sucks.

 

I really do not need advanced metrics to tell me that.

 

Why is this even being discussed? Is everyone here f***ing blind?

Lol! I agree. Kimmi presented Buchholz's xfip as evidence that his poor performance is enigmatic. After looking at the stat in the context of his career xfip numbers, I don't think his poor performance is enigmatic and it doesn't give me any hope for a big improvement in his performance unless we think a 4.75 to 5.50 ERA is a big improvement.

[TedWilliams101]

Craig is owed $20mil after this year, so no. I don't see them eating it.

 

And this is the difference between a winning and losing organization. Just because you made the mistake of paying him doesn't mean you make the mistake to continue playing him. Cut the losses. I spend $50 on a bad beer that ends up being terrible, does that mean I suck it down? No, I say a few choice words, dump it down the drain, and move on. The only thing worse than ending up with a bad contract is not getting production from a spot because you are playing your bad contract.

[User Name]

If there's something that everyone on this site is in agreement with, it's that Craig needs to go.

[User Name]

Enough already. It's pointless to imagine Nava (whom I've always liked) or Craig is going to turn things around magically. I believe Nava can be sent down, correct? (actually, he wouldn't refuse, since it would essentially mean the end of his career); Craig can be released. Their value right now is at its lowest-- that is, unless they continue to play. Bradley needs a final shot. Even his anemic .200 average from last year looks formidable compared to what these guys are giving.

 

And he can actually play D.

[mvp 78]

If there's something that everyone on this site is in agreement with, it's that Craig needs to go.

 

It's not Memorial Day yet. He and Nava can go after then.

[Kimmi]

His xfip to this date in 2015 is a full run lower than his career xfip. In 2014, his xfip came in at exactly his career mark and he put up a 5.34 ERA. Wouldn't his history suggest that his xfip is likely to normalize closer to his career mark? His current xfip is the lowest of his career by .40.

 

His xFIP this year is lower because his K rate is way up. I don't know what the reason for that is, but in the early going, an improved K rate is a good sign.

 

Regardless, it is rare that pitchers underperform their xFIP by more than one run. It happens only about 4% of the time. In other words, 96% of pitchers are within one run of their xFIP one way or the other. Only about 10% of pitchers have an ERA off of their xFIP by more than .69.

 

A difference between ERA and xFIP of 3 runs is unheard of. The biggest difference over a season in the last 10 years has been 1.83. So, even if you want to use Clay's career xFIP of 4.04, that is still 2 runs better than his ERA.

 

Clay's ERA will get better. It should get better by a fairly significant amount. It is a well established FACT that xFIP and SIERA are better predictors of ERA than current ERA is.

[Spudboy]

Nava will hit once again.

 

He is very cheap outfield depth.

 

Even as only a decent platoon hitter, he still has value to the Sox.

 

I don't understand why Graig does not hit. He looks healthy.

 

But I won't miss him. He is an expensive stiff if he does not hit.

[Kimmi]

So he sucks.

 

I really do not need advanced metrics to tell me that.

 

Why is this even being discussed? Is everyone here f***ing blind?

 

No one is saying that Clay has not stunk.

 

Just saying that there is good reason to believe that he will improve, as will the rest of the staff.

 

You are going all Fred on me again.

[Kimmi]

If there's something that everyone on this site is in agreement with, it's that Craig needs to go.

 

Not in agreement with that at this time.

[Kimmi]

And he can actually play D.

 

Who ever thought there'd come a day when people were begging for JBJ to be in our line up?

[Spudboy]

His xFIP this year is lower because his K rate is way up. I don't know what the reason for that is, but in the early going, an improved K rate is a good sign.

 

Regardless, it is rare that pitchers underperform their xFIP by more than one run. It happens only about 4% of the time. In other words, 96% of pitchers are within one run of their xFIP one way or the other. Only about 10% of pitchers have an ERA off of their xFIP by more than .69.

 

A difference between ERA and xFIP of 3 runs is unheard of. The biggest difference over a season in the last 10 years has been 1.83. So, even if you want to use Clay's career xFIP of 4.04, that is still 2 runs better than his ERA.

 

Clay's ERA will get better. It should get better by a fairly significant amount. It is a well established FACT that xFIP and SIERA are better predictors of ERA than current ERA is.

 

While your statement of statistical facts are very interesting and useful Clay Bucholtz just does not have the stuff to be a starter in this market. Not a good one, anyway.

 

Will he have periods this year when he pitches decently or even pretty well. Sure. Of course. He does that most every year and then the clock strikes twelve and he sucks big green donkey dicks again.

 

Anyone who believe that Clay Bucholtz will somehow become something that he has never been is dreaming.

 

He should be selling edibles in Texas.

[Kimmi]

It's not Memorial Day yet. He and Nava can go after then.

 

Somebody with some common sense.

[Kimmi]

While your statement of statistical facts are very interesting and useful Clay Bucholtz just does not have the stuff to be a starter in this market. Not a good one, anyway.

 

Will he have periods this year when he pitches decently or even pretty well. Sure. Of course. He does that most every year and then the clock strikes twelve and he sucks big green donkey dicks again.

 

Anyone who believe that Clay Bucholtz will somehow become something that he has never been is dreaming.

 

He should be selling edibles in Texas.

 

Nobody is saying that Clay will magically turn into Kershaw (though we have seen stretches of brilliance from him). No one expected our rotation to be our strength. I'm not saying that. I'm saying that they will not be as bad as they have been over the first 25 games of the season.

 

If their ERAs normalize towards their xFIPs, then they will be more like the staff that the FO expected. They should be able to keep the team in most games. The problem as I see it now is that the offense is not doing its job.

[a700hitter]

His xFIP this year is lower because his K rate is way up. I don't know what the reason for that is, but in the early going, an improved K rate is a good sign.

 

Regardless, it is rare that pitchers underperform their xFIP by more than one run. It happens only about 4% of the time. In other words, 96% of pitchers are within one run of their xFIP one way or the other. Only about 10% of pitchers have an ERA off of their xFIP by more than .69.

 

A difference between ERA and xFIP of 3 runs is unheard of. The biggest difference over a season in the last 10 years has been 1.83. So, even if you want to use Clay's career xFIP of 4.04, that is still 2 runs better than his ERA.

 

Clay's ERA will get better. It should get better by a fairly significant amount. It is a well established FACT that xFIP and SIERA are better predictors of ERA than current ERA is.

 

And you are ignoring that his xfip is a full run below his career average. Isn't it likely that this will regress towards his norm of 4? I would assign some hope to his current xfip if it was his career norm, but it isn't. He will improve but he will probably end up with a 4.5 ERA which is just not good enough to be a top of the rotation pitcher.

[Spudboy]

And you are ignoring that his xfip is a full run below his career average. Isn't it likely that this will regress towards his norm of 4? I would assign some hope to his current xfip if it was his career norm, but it isn't. He will improve but he will probably end up with a 4.5 ERA which is just not good enough to be a top of the rotation pitcher.

 

And that makes him a 4 or a 5.

 

And we can see that he is not even a good one.

[a700hitter]

The staff is not enigmatic. They are a pile of hot steaming garbage.

[sk7326]

And you are ignoring that his xfip is a full run below his career average. Isn't it likely that this will regress towards his norm of 4? I would assign some hope to his current xfip if it was his career norm, but it isn't. He will improve but he will probably end up with a 4.5 ERA which is just not good enough to be a top of the rotation pitcher.

 

I have my doubts his FIP is as good as it looks - but a .407 BABIP just ain't gonna keep coming either. That a guy has been worse than last year while walking fewer guys and striking out more of them (without a spike in home runs) is plain goofy.

[a700hitter]

I have my doubts his FIP is as good as it looks - but a .407 BABIP just ain't gonna keep coming either. That a guy has been worse than last year while walking fewer guys and striking out more of them (without a spike in home runs) is plain goofy.

 

Expecting him to be something that he has never been -- a staff leader -- is goofy too.