Tommy John Surgery for Christian Vasquez

[Spudboy]

The Sox have had week offensive batteries before.

 

I remember Duane Josephson and Bob Montgomery very fondly!

[a700hitter]

Everything I've read about Hanigan says he's a very good to excellent defensive catcher. Where do you get that he's declining defensively? Do you have any facts or quotes on that?

His stats from last season. He was way down in percentage of runners caught stealing. He dropped fro 45% to 21%. He's also catching a lot less games the last couple of seasons suggesting that he is aging quickly as most catchers do. That's enough for me. What do you have to counter?

[User Name]

Now that the Sox have lost the offensive juggernaut that is Christian Vasquez, I must update my prediction of the Sox' overall 2015 record:

 

It is now -5/162, because they suck so bad.

Edited March 30, 2015 by User Name?

[mvp 78]

Now that the Sox have lost the offensive juggernaut that is Christian Vasquez, I must update my prediction of the Sox' overall 2015 record:

 

It is now -5/162, because they suck so bad.

 

Be reasonable. They'll at least go 20/141 (rainout date not made up).

[Bellhorn04]

His stats from last season. He was way down in percentage of runners caught stealing. He dropped fro 45% to 21%. He's also catching a lot less games the last couple of seasons suggesting that he is aging quickly as most catchers do. That's enough for me. What do you have to counter?

 

Games played:

 

2009 90

2010 70

2011 91

2012 112

2013 75

2014 84

 

2012 looks like the outlier there, I'm guessing because of injury to the other catcher. Take that out and the decline is pretty marginal.

 

The caught stealing decline is a legit issue, I'll have to have a closer look at that.

[a700hitter]

Games played:

 

2009 90

2010 70

2011 91

2012 112

2013 75

2014 84

 

2012 looks like the outlier there, I'm guessing because of injury to the other catcher. Take that out and the decline is pretty marginal.

 

The caught stealing decline is a legit issue, I'll have to have a closer look at that.

They ran on him significantly more in 2015 than in pat seasons and he threw out a much lower percentage. The percentage was like those put up by Varitek at the end of his career. The stable games played number proves nothing other than he is at best a part time catcher, even in his prime. We will have to get around 80 games from the other guy that we picked up for cab fare.

[Palodios]

they ran on him significantly more in 2015 than in pat seasons....

 

Here are his inning numbers, and stolen base attempts over the last few years. His CS has definitely gone down, but teams aren't increasing their amounts of stolen base attempts.

 

2011 687.1 ip, 52 sba, 18 CS

2012 877.0 ip, 66 sba, 32 CS

2013 589.2 ip, 33 sba, 15 CS

2014 603.2 ip, 38 sba, 8 CS

[mvp 78]

Walk on home boy...

[a700hitter]

Here are his inning numbers, and stolen base attempts over the last few years. His CS has definitely gone down, but teams aren't increasing their amounts of stolen base attempts.

 

2011 687.1 ip, 52 sba, 18 CS

2012 877.0 ip, 66 sba, 32 CS

2013 589.2 ip, 33 sba, 15 CS

2014 603.2 ip, 38 sba, 8 CS

Varitek numbers last year. With that low of a percentage and the history of our pitchers not working on holding runners, they will run more.

[a700hitter]

There really was nothing special about Vasquez defensive abilities that can't be replaced by some minor league throw away from another organization. What was I thinking?

[Thunder]

Here are his inning numbers, and stolen base attempts over the last few years. His CS has definitely gone down, but teams aren't increasing their amounts of stolen base attempts.

 

2011 687.1 ip, 52 sba, 18 CS

2012 877.0 ip, 66 sba, 32 CS

2013 589.2 ip, 33 sba, 15 CS

2014 603.2 ip, 38 sba, 8 CS

 

I'll take those numbers. His CS has gone down, but it is worth noting the percentages here. From what I see, last year could be a sign of things to come. Doing the math in my head, his percentage in 2011 was just over 33%, in 2012 it was just under 50%, 2013 was the same, but with significantly less time played. Last year it was around 20%. Like you said, teams aren't increasing their SB attempts, and the teams that we are going to play the most aren't going to run much. The Rays never run, the Yankees only have Gardner, whose speed I think is overrated, and the O's will probably be right in the middle of the league if not below. The Blue Jays will definitely want to run, which is a concern, especially the way guys like Buchholz pitch with men on. But overall, I feel it is a manageable hole. Good defense with pitching at the level we want to see will easily overcome the tendency to allow guys to steal.

[Bellhorn04]

There really was nothing special about Vasquez defensive abilities that can't be replaced by some minor league throw away from another organization. What was I thinking?

 

Losing Vazquez does hurt. It may take a while to find out how much.

[Palodios]

Varitek numbers last year. With that low of a percentage and the history of our pitchers not working on holding runners, they will run more.

 

Lester was the one who had serious issues holding runners. No wonder he wanted David Ross catching him so well.

[Kimmi]

He's 34 yo. The last TWO years he hit .198 and .218. Last year his cs% was bad. Not sure about the rest but I seriously doubt if he was that good - he would have been slated for a backup. Which he would have been with Sox. I'm not grateful that we have a below average overall catcher slated to be our prime catcher. That's not good.

 

 

Hanigan's BABIPs during those last two years were a ridiculously low .216 and .240. He had line drive rates of 21.5% and 21.8%, respectively. We should see some regression from him. Not that he's going to be an offensive powerhouse, but he should hit better than what he has hit the past two seasons.

[Kimmi]

Mediocre staff and a journeymen and bush leaguer at catcher does not bode well for run prevention.

 

 

This might be the silliest statement that I have seen from you so far.

[Kimmi]

Morning, all! Long time visitor, decided to get posting.

 

A bit of foreshadowing here that we were all afraid of....

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/red-sox-to-acquire-sandy-leon-from-nationals.html

 

This likely confirms that Vasquez is at least out for a signficant period of time, but I like the move since Leon has always had a good track record of being a very good defensive catcher. A similar type of replacement, and will allow us to get Swihart some more seasoning in the minors and not rush him up. I am pretty sure Leon is out of options, so unless we try to sneak him through waivers to place in AAA, it's likely he breaks camp as the backup for Hannigan.

 

 

The Sandy Leon pick up is a good one. This almost insures that Swihart will not be rushed, and it gives us some added depth at the position. Defensively, Leon is pretty much a Vazquez clone. His offense is nonexistent, but his defense is excellent.

[Kimmi]

I think the projected optimism for them defensively is warranted. It won't cure all the flaws with the rotation, but it will help the run prevention operation.

 

 

I agree. I think this team will be very solid defensively.

[Kimmi]

Based on what do you think they will be good at it? One guy is a bush leaguer that we know little about and he knows less about our staff. The other guy is 34 and declining. What are you hanging you hat on?

 

 

The fact that Leon doesn't know our staff is a concern, but having a veteran defensive guy like Hanigan mentoring him should help Leon familiarize himself more quickly.

[Kimmi]

His stats from last season. He was way down in percentage of runners caught stealing. He dropped fro 45% to 21%. He's also catching a lot less games the last couple of seasons suggesting that he is aging quickly as most catchers do. That's enough for me. What do you have to counter?

 

 

Out of all of the defensive stats for catchers, CS% is the least important. Handling the staff, ie pitch calling and pitch framing are far more important. Hanigan has ranked among the top in pitch framing for the past several years. He will save the team many runs on that ability alone.

 

Hanigan is also known as a superb pitch blocker. He can save the team about a 1/2 win with that skill.

[Kimmi]

There really was nothing special about Vasquez defensive abilities that can't be replaced by some minor league throw away from another organization. What was I thinking?

 

 

The minor league throwaway is a virtual clone of Vazquez. Over the past 5 years, Leon has thrown out 49% of baserunners in the minors and majors.

 

I wonder who was the only catcher in the minors in 2013 who was a better pitch framer than Vazquez was?

 

Oh, that would be Sandy Leon! He saved his team 21.4 runs in pitch framing.

[Dojji]

Sandy Leon looks like a primo young backup catcher and I hope the Sox have plans to hold onto the guy after this year.

[bostopz]

For those of you downplaying the loss of Vasquez. His arm probably would have shut down every running game (and I don't mean that nobody would ever steal. Of course the opposing teams will have some degree of success but forget about "a running game.") )-- but for a poor pitching staff -- you either need more great offense or a defender that can limit the other team's offense. Vasquez had all the tools for not just a good defensive catcher but a super defensive catcher. Not understanding the pitching staff, being able to throw out over 50% of the runners like he did last year and basically being compared defensively to Pudge Rodriguez -- means/equates to less runs for the opposition. Losing a super defensive catcher means pitchers becomes more cautious throwing their full arsenal. That means less effectiveness. A less effective staff means more losses.

 

Vasquez's defense was projected to be a high impact defense. This team needs all the help it can get in preventing runs. One run here or there can be the difference between 2nd place and 4th.

 

We weren't winning the division as the team was constructed anyways. And doubtful we were going to come in 2nd without better picthing. Now with no Kelly and no Vasquez-- more pressure gets put on the hitting. The difference between 2nd place and 4th place in our division isn't thatmuch but more minor leaguers and journeymen and relying on a decling 34 yo catcher whose last two years he hit .218 and .198 while also needing a learning curve is not ideal for finishing in 2nd.

Edited March 30, 2015 by bostopz

[a700hitter]

This might be the silliest statement that I have seen from you so far.

What is silly is writing a string of posts like this addressing an issue that I had conceded before you signed on --- the ease of replacing Vasquez's defense. He is nothing special. Teams are discarding guys with his kind of glove left and right.

[Kimmi]

I am not downplaying the loss of Vazquez. Losing him for the season makes me sick. However, I am encouraged by the fact that our other catchers are also very good defensive catchers. It's not like they are Jorge Posada.

[Kimmi]

What is silly is writing a string of posts like this addressing an issue that I had conceded before you signed on --- the ease of replacing Vasquez's defense. He is nothing special. Teams are discarding guys with his kind of glove left and right.

 

 

You asked what we had to counter with in terms of Hanigan and Leon being a good defensive tandem, so I countered. Now you're going to change your argument?

[SoxnCycles]

You asked what we had to counter with in terms of Hanigan and Leon being a good defensive tandem, so I countered. Now you're going to change your argument?

 

Of course he is.

 

And who knew there was a post limit here?

[bostopz]

I am not downplaying the loss of Vazquez. Losing him for the season makes me sick. However, I am encouraged by the fact that our other catchers are also very good defensive catchers. It's not like they are Jorge Posada.

 

The problem with Leon is if it is 2 outs -- our 7th and 8th hitters are going to be pretty good. Why give them anything to hit? Leon's offense is worse than awful. For the good he does dfenively he is a nightmare offensively. Sure he is fine as a backup. But he isn't a starter. And I don't share other's opinions of a 34 yo Harrigan. He's a backup catcher.

 

Vasquez would have been a dynamite defender that could hit .230. Our current crop isn't close to what he was. Leon apparently is a terrifiic defender but horrific offense. We have two backup catchers. Vaquez wasn't a backup catcher.

[SoxnCycles]

The problem with Leon is if it is 2 outs -- our 7th and 8th hitters are going to be pretty good. Why give them anything to hit? Leon's offense is worse than awful. For the good he does dfenively he is a nightmare offensively. Sure he is fine as a backup. But he isn't a starter. And I don't share other's opinions of a 34 yo Harrigan. He's a backup catcher.

 

Vasquez would have been a dynamite defender that could hit .230. Our current crop isn't close to what he was. Leon apparently is a terrifiic defender but horrific offense. We have two backup catchers. Vaquez wasn't a backup catcher.

 

Do you really think pitchers will change their approach because the mighty Vazquez is on deck?

I don't see it.

[User Name]

The problem with Leon is if it is 2 outs -- our 7th and 8th hitters are going to be pretty good. Why give them anything to hit? Leon's offense is worse than awful. For the good he does dfenively he is a nightmare offensively. Sure he is fine as a backup. But he isn't a starter. And I don't share other's opinions of a 34 yo Harrigan. He's a backup catcher.

 

Vasquez would have been a dynamite defender that could hit .230. Our current crop isn't close to what he was. Leon apparently is a terrifiic defender but horrific offense. We have two backup catchers. Vaquez wasn't a backup catcher.

 

You're kinda overstating the overall impact Vasquez was going to have on this team in 2015. And let's face it, no matter how much anyone likes the guy, he was likely keeping the seat warm for Swihart either way.

[bostopz]

Do you really think pitchers will change their approach because the mighty Vazquez is on deck?

I don't see it.

 

No. But they'll change their approach to a .150 hitter. Tell me if you were batting against major league pitching at the 9 spot. Do you think they would pitch to the .280 hitters above you? WHy? Because you are an automatic out. If you hit .230 you aren't an automatic out.