2015 Prospect Mega Thread

[a700hitter]

I really don't know what the percentage is, but my impression is that the subjective calls are higher than 20%.

 

And the calls probably cut 50-50 -- questionable errors and questionable hits.

[Kimmi]

And the calls probably cut 50-50 -- questionable errors and questionable hits.

 

Perhaps, but that doesn't make it a better stat because it tends to "even out".

 

And it might not even out. It's been shown that umpires tend to give better more strike calls outside the zone to pitchers who dominant and who are known for their control, subconsciously, I'm sure. So, missed balls and strikes calls don't really even out. Perhaps official scorers have a similar type of bias depending on whether someone is known as a good or bad defender.

[a700hitter]

Perhaps, but that doesn't make it a better stat because it tends to "even out".

 

And it might not even out. It's been shown that umpires tend to give better more strike calls outside the zone to pitchers who dominant and who are known for their control, subconsciously, I'm sure. So, missed balls and strikes calls don't really even out. Perhaps official scorers have a similar type of bias depending on whether someone is known as a good or bad defender.

No one is saying that it is a great metric to judge a Golden Glove award, but 29 errors at this juncture is a big number, no matter how it is sliced. The true number may be more than 29. We just don't know. I hope that the organization is giving his fielding appropriate attention and not blaming the official scoring.

[Kimmi]

No one is saying that it is a great metric to judge a Golden Glove award, but 29 errors at this juncture is a big number, no matter how it is sliced. The true number may be more than 29. We just don't know. I hope that the organization is giving his fielding appropriate attention and not blaming the official scoring.

 

Once again, I am not arguing against the likelihood that Moncada needs to work on his defense. I am arguing against the use of the error as a good stat.

[a700hitter]

Once again, I am not arguing against the likelihood that Moncada needs to work on his defense. I am arguing against the use of the error as a good stat.

 

This came up in the context of discussion of whether Moncado's fielding needs work. Regardless of the shortcomings of errors as a stat, 29 is a number that clearly indicates that he has work to do.

[Bellhorn04]

Right on cue, there was a scorer's decision in the Jays-Yankees game that showed some of the vagaries of errors, earned runs and unearned runs.

 

With two outs in the third and nobody on, Tulowitzki hit a routine fly ball to Beltran, but Beltran lost it in the sun and didn't catch it. It was originally scored an error. Donaldson then singled and Bautista homered. The Jays' 3 runs were unearned. But later the scorer changed the call to a hit, and the 3 runs became earned.

 

Is that something that would be factored into the pitcher's FIP?

[sk7326]

Right on cue, there was a scorer's decision in the Jays-Yankees game that showed some of the vagaries of errors, earned runs and unearned runs.

 

With two outs in the third and nobody on, Tulowitzki hit a routine fly ball to Beltran, but Beltran lost it in the sun and didn't catch it. It was originally scored an error. Donaldson then singled and Bautista homered. The Jays' 3 runs were unearned. But later the scorer changed the call to a hit, and the 3 runs became earned.

 

Is that something that would be factored into the pitcher's FIP?

 

I don't think so - that it was a ball put in play was sufficient to affect FIP

[Kimmi]

Right on cue, there was a scorer's decision in the Jays-Yankees game that showed some of the vagaries of errors, earned runs and unearned runs.

 

With two outs in the third and nobody on, Tulowitzki hit a routine fly ball to Beltran, but Beltran lost it in the sun and didn't catch it. It was originally scored an error. Donaldson then singled and Bautista homered. The Jays' 3 runs were unearned. But later the scorer changed the call to a hit, and the 3 runs became earned.

 

Is that something that would be factored into the pitcher's FIP?

 

This is a great example. It's also a great example of the randomness of baseball events affecting the outcome of games, particularly the close ones.

 

As far as FIP goes, the only things that affect FIP are BBs, Ks, HBPs, and HRs. Bautista's HR would be factored in, but the other hits would not be.

[Bellhorn04]

As far as FIP goes, the only things that affect FIP are BBs, Ks, HBPs, and HRs. Bautista's HR would be factored in, but the other hits would not be.

 

Ah, so FIP only measures the 'three true outcomes', right?

[Kimmi]

Ah, so FIP only measures the 'three true outcomes', right?

 

Exactly. The point of FIP is to take the defense out of the equation as much as possible.

[mvp 78]

@MiLB: #RedSox first-rounder/No. 6 prospect Andrew Benintendi is reportedly being promoted to @GreenvilleDrive.

[sk7326]

Exactly. The point of FIP is to take the defense out of the equation as much as possible.

 

Right - and, fyi xFIP makes a leap about homerun luck which may or may not be true ... I tend to agree with Fangraphs that xFIP while useful might be a bridge too far right now.

[sk7326]

@MiLB: #RedSox first-rounder/No. 6 prospect Andrew Benintendi is reportedly being promoted to @GreenvilleDrive.

 

As well as he should ... SEC player of the year faced better competition in college than he saw at Lowell (and to a great extent will see at Greenville) ....

[cp176]

As well as he should ... SEC player of the year faced better competition in college than he saw at Lowell (and to a great extent will see at Greenville) ....

 

That statement about the quality of competition faced at Greenville makes me worry a little bit about some of our our more highly touted prospects. They are at Greenville.

[sk7326]

That statement about the quality of competition faced at Greenville makes me worry a little bit about some of our our more highly touted prospects. They are at Greenville.

 

Oh I wouldn't worry about it - the guys who are down there have not played tough competition beyond high school (or the equivalent). Big time college baseball is a step up from big time high school baseball - that does not seem controversial.

 

It's fine for guys out of high school for sure ... but the SEC is the best baseball league in the country. You hope the player of the year from that conference (especially a bat) is at a higher starting point. Orienting him at Greenville is fine of course.

[cp176]

Oh I wouldn't worry about it - the guys who are down there have not played tough competition beyond high school (or the equivalent). Big time college baseball is a step up from big time high school baseball - that does not seem controversial.

 

It's fine for guys out of high school for sure ... but the SEC is the best baseball league in the country. You hope the player of the year from that conference (especially a bat) is at a higher starting point. Orienting him at Greenville is fine of course.

 

Should we be at all concerned that Moncada and Guerra might not be as good as we are led to believe they are due to the inferior quality of the competition?

[sk7326]

Should we be at all concerned that Moncada and Guerra might not be as good as we are led to believe they are due to the inferior quality of the competition?

 

It is always a question with prospects, isn't it? But, I've always leaned on the adage that was true since high school. The future studs aren't guys who dominate JV, but the freshman who can play starting minutes (even as a role player) with the varsity. Moncada, Guerra are young for a full season league, Devers is younger than that. That they have had success in a full season league is very encouraging.

 

Remember, the three guys at Greenville are all nearly 2 years younger than Benintendi ... and already have a season or two of pro experience beyond. You draft a college guy you hope to start him higher on the ladder in order to make up for that gap.

 

Think of it another way. Sam Travis was a college 1B in a not-particularly good league (Big Ten) and started his first full season of pro ball at Salem and is now in Portland. You draft college guys for the high floor. The hope is there is less hand holding early on.

Edited August 19, 2015 by sk7326

[cp176]

It is always a question with prospects, isn't it? But, I've always leaned on the adage that was true since high school. The future studs aren't guys who dominate JV, but the freshman who can play starting minutes (even as a role player) with the varsity. Moncada, Guerra are young for a full season league, Devers is younger than that. That they have had success in a full season league is very encouraging.

 

Remember, the three guys at Greenville are all nearly 2 years younger than Benintendi ... and already have a season or two of pro experience beyond. You draft a college guy you hope to start him higher on the ladder in order to make up for that gap.

 

Think of it another way. Sam Travis was a college 1B in a not-particularly good league (Big Ten) and started his first full season of pro ball at Salem and is now in Portland. You draft college guys for the high floor. The hope is there is less hand holding early on.

 

That makes sense to me. The high school analogy works for me as well. Even though I do think you think you have to grab the good ones early, I still am partial to those that have either a PG year or some college experience.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier: Andrew Benintendi hit 2 HRs for Greenville, his first since promotion. He now has 9 HRs in 38 pro games.

[cp176]

Aaron Wilkerson really - great start for him!

[cp176]

Moncada got some great press today. Things are looking good for him and us!

[cp176]

Espinoza just got promoted. 17 years old and moving on up. Great arm for just a kid.

[sk7326]

Espinoza just got promoted. 17 years old and moving on up. Great arm for just a kid.

 

Makes sense. He is too young for the Arizona Fall League - Gulf Coast season is over. Sox want him to pitch more.

[sk7326]

Moncada got some great press today. Things are looking good for him and us!

 

Sox system is loaded. It is one of the weird things about the Cherington record. If you did not know the Red Sox finished last in 3 of his 4 seasons (say, all you knew is that they missed the playoffs) ... you'd see what he left and think he did a uniformly amazing job.

[a700hitter]

Sox system is loaded. It is one of the weird things about the Cherington record. If you did not know the Red Sox finished last in 3 of his 4 seasons (say, all you knew is that they missed the playoffs) ... you'd see what he left and think he did a uniformly amazing job.

 

With no pitching. Not amazing at all. Actually, pretty bad.

[sk7326]

With no pitching. Not amazing at all. Actually, pretty bad.

 

now that is entitlement

[a700hitter]

now that is entitlement

 

It is just a very accurate and truthful assessment of a record of 3 last place finishes in 4 years leaving behind little pitching talent for the future. It is not a good record.

 

Apparently, ownership didn't feel great about his record and that is why they hired Dombrowski.

[User Name]

Why is it so hard to respond to what is actually said, not what you arbitrarily think was said so it can fit your narrative. Cut that s*** out.

[sk7326]

It is just a very accurate and truthful assessment of a record of 3 last place finishes in 4 years leaving behind little pitching talent for the future. It is not a good record.

 

Apparently, ownership didn't feel great about his record and that is why they hired Dombrowski.

 

I wasn't defending him - but noting that if somebody had won one title in four years, and left the cupboard frankly sort of bursting - it would look like an amazing tenure. The last place finishes put a damper on it, and make his ouster reasonable. The same way that, say someone with a 3.41 ERA and an 8-13 record looks like he's been a meh starter when he's been one of the best in the league.

[Kimmi]

With no pitching. Not amazing at all. Actually, pretty bad.

 

LOL Please.

 

We have several kids playing in the bigs, and we still have the best farm system in baseball. I get that you don't like Ben, but give credit where credit is due.