Keith Law's Prospect Stuff on Sawx

[Fisk]

I also care about our future love our young core following them is what makes it fun. I believe it's just time in the teams development to cash in some chips. The key is to have success in the draft and internationally. We also need to start exploring extensions next off season when going over the tax is a given.

[moonslav59]

I also care about our future love our young core following them is what makes it fun. I believe it's just time in the teams development to cash in some chips. The key is to have success in the draft and internationally. We also need to start exploring extensions next off season when going over the tax is a given.

 

I didn't mean to imply you didn't care about the future.

 

I do think that if DD knew he was getting Sale, he'd have not done the Pom deal. I could be wrong.

 

I love our team right now, and I'm not down on DD.

 

I just wish we had Espi.

[Fisk]

I didn't mean to imply you didn't care about the future.

 

I do think that if DD knew he was getting Sale, he'd have not done the Pom deal. I could be wrong.

 

I love our team right now, and I'm not down on DD.

 

I just wish we had Espi.

 

No offense. What I do wonder is why DD didn't reverse the trade when he had a chance. Does he know something we don't.

[Spudboy]

No offense. What I do wonder is why DD didn't reverse the trade when he had a chance. Does he know something we don't.

 

Yes. He knew that this team needed MLB pitching ready to take the mound now. The fact that Pom was cheap did not hurt either.

[Fisk]

When he was allowed to reverse the trade I'm pretty sure he knew pomerantz was going to be pitching out of the bullpen the rest of the year, if even that.

[moonslav59]

No offense. What I do wonder is why DD didn't reverse the trade when he had a chance. Does he know something we don't.

 

I think he felt the injury wasn't severe, and by the time he had the chance to reverse the trade, the deadline was past and we had little options.

 

I thought MLB should have allowed us to reverse the trade after the season as punishment to the Padres.

[harmony]

#98 Sam Travis (2016 unranked)

ESPN columnist Scott Lauber offered his take on Sam Travis:

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/51654/sam-travis-aka-mr-intensity-is-hell-bent-on-the-bigs

 

Lauber writes of Travis' relationship with Chicago Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber, his teammate at Indiana University. On this forum I've compared Travis with Seattle first base prospect Dan Vogelbach, who coincidentally was a teammate of Schwarber's on the 2015 Tennessee Smokies.

 

Compare their lines on the 2014 Indiana Hoosiers and the 2015 Tennessee Smokies:

 

IU14 KS 232 AB, .358/.464/.659/1.123

IU14 ST 245 AB, .347/.415/.576/.991

 

TS15 KS 243 PA, .320/.438/.579/1.017

TS15 DV 313 PA, .272/.403/.425/.828

 

http://iuhoosiers.com/documents/2015/9/19//14_indiv.pdf?id=19925

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=db646cfb

 

I have not seen Vogelbach on any Top 100 prospect lists but Steamer600, which assume 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects 2017 WAR of 0.7 for Travis and 1.1 for Vogelbach.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=11&lg=all&players=

Edited January 30, 2017 by harmony

[sk7326]

The Red Sox org writeup

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6345

 

Top 10 Prospects

 

1. Andrew Benintendi, OF (#1 overall)

2. Rafael Devers, 3B (#11)

3. Jason Groome, LHP (#20)

4. Sam Travis, 1B (#98)

5. Travis Lakins, RHP

6. Ronny Raudes, RHP

7. Bobby Dalbec, 3B

8. CJ Chatham, SS

9. Nick Longhi, 1B

10. Brian Johnson, LHP

 

Non-Top 100 Guys

 

Travis Lakins was my sleeper pick for the Red Sox last year, but was pitching hurt for at least part of the season and was finally shut down at the end of July with an olecranon injury; he’s expected to be fine for camp. He touches 96 mph but pitches more comfortably at 92-93 with a potentially plus curveball and an athletic delivery.

 

Ronny Raudes was just 18 but spent the year in Low-A Greenville’s rotation. The Nicaraguan teenager has good command of average stuff: an 88-93 mph fastball, an average curveball that might be his best pitch if he gets more power to it, and a solid changeup. He’s a little projectable but not likely to end up with plus stuff, so it’s command and control that will carry him to the majors, with fourth starter upside.

 

Bobby Dalbec was a two-way player at the University of Arizona who struck out way too much as a hitter, so the Red Sox tried to get him to commit to a single stance and swing in every at-bat, after which he hit .386/.427/.674 in the short-season New York-Penn League with a 23 percent whiff rate, down from over 31 percent in the spring. He’s very strong with plus raw power, but he used the whole field more once he quieted his approach at the plate.

 

C.J. Chatham was Boston’s second pick in the 2016 draft. He’s an above-average defender at short with pop but struggled after signing due to a hamate injury. Nick Longhi finished second in the Carolina League with 40 doubles as a 20-year-old; he’s disciplined for his age, with a line-drive swing in games and bigger power in BP, but he puts the ball on the ground too much for a guy with his size and strength.

 

Brian Johnson missed much of 2016 dealing with anxiety disorder, took time off to seek treatment and returned in July to have more success in Triple-A than he had earlier. Anxiety is manageable with some combination of medication, therapy and other remedies, so Johnson’s outlook should be what it was before -- a guy with three or four pitches, nothing plus, with No. 4 or 5 starter potential because of his ability to locate and to change speeds.

 

First baseman Josh Ockimey (11) was hitting .291/.423/.517 on the morning of July 1 but ran out of gas, hitting .141/.293/.305 the rest of the way, possibly the result of being maxed out physically when he came to camp. He’s first base-only, but there’s enough here that I still give him a chance to become a legitimate everyday player, even if the odds are becoming low due to his age.

 

Right-hander Mike Shawaryn (12) was Boston’s fifth-round pick but was paid third-round money despite a bad spring at Maryland; he has starter stuff but a rough arm action that points to a bullpen role and possible command issues. Shaun Anderson (13) was the closer on the University of Florida’s powerhouse staff, throwing 91-94 mph plus a mid-80s cutter he uses heavily; he could have three pitches along with his hard curveball, but his short arm action probably limits him to the bullpen.

 

Michael Chavis (14) struggled while repeating Low-A, and may simply not hit enough to be a big leaguer. Kyri Washington (15) has huge power and is one of the organization's toolsiest prospects, but there’s a lot of swing-and-miss here, which is how he ended up a 23rd-rounder. While he held his strikeout rate constant from his last year in the Big South (with metal bats) and his first full year in pro ball (with wood), it’s still too early to rank him in line with his raw ability.

 

Danny Mars (16) has fourth outfielder potential with some feel for hitting, above-average speed and a plus arm, lacking only the power to be an everyday guy. Ben Taylor (17) was a senior sign in the seventh round in 2015 out of the University of South Alabama, and reached Double-A in his first full pro season. He has deception in his delivery, missing bats with a 91-93 mph four-seamer with good carry; he could be a middle reliever depending on his breaking ball’s development.

 

Right-hander Stephen Nogosek (18) throws up to 97 mph with some funk in his delivery that makes it hard for hitters to pick the ball up; he could move to the high minors this year. Lefty Trey Ball (19) throws 90-92 mph out of the pen; among his four pitches the changeup is best, and he’s trying to develop a cutter to compensate for his lack of a true breaking ball.

 

Some relievers of note: Chandler Shepherd went from the 13th round in 2014 to Triple-A in 2016, mostly on the basis of his control, but he lacks a swing-and-miss pitch to be more than a middle-innings guy. Jamie Callahan touches 96 mph but really lives with a cutter at 88-90, although none of this will matter until he stops walking so many guys (37 in 65⅔ IP last year). The Red Sox converted catcher Jordan Weems, their 2011 third-round pick, to the mound. Weems threw 93-96 right away and is working on a curveball and changeup; we’ll see where his repertoire stands after he has a full year on the mound behind him.

 

2017 impact: Benintendi already has an everyday job at Fenway and is the favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award. Barring injuries, there’s no room in the lineup or rotation for anyone else to break in. Someone like Shepherd could get middle-relief innings during the summer.

 

The fallen: Chavis has gone from first-rounder to someone who’s probably 30/70 to make the majors at all given his lack of hitting ability or defensive value. Ty Buttrey was a 2012 fourth-rounder who got first-round money ($1.3 million); he moved to the bullpen in Double-A this year but didn’t have much success there either.

[moonslav59]

ESPN columnist Scott Lauber offered his take on Sam Travis:

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-...nt-on-the-bigs

 

Nice article.

[Eddy Ballgame]

ESPN columnist Scott Lauber offered his take on Sam Travis:

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-...nt-on-the-bigs

 

Nice article.

 

I've always liked Travis because of his reputation of being the "anti-Middlebrooks." He's just wants to get better and better all the time. The guy should thrive in a place like Boston. Jon Heyman tweeted that one Boston scout said he is "the next Paul Goldschmidt," (see link),

 

https://www.google.com/amp/nesn.com/2016/03/scout-calls-red-sox-prospect-sam-travis-the-next-paul-goldschmidt/amp/?client=safari

 

While that's obviously a stretch, the organization definitely has high hopes for him and he is probably the biggest reason why they didn't pursue any 1st base options for longer than a year. Either way, he's an easy guy to root for.

[moonslav59]

I've always liked Travis because of his reputation of being the "anti-Middlebrooks." He's just wants to get better and better all the time. The guy should thrive in a place like Boston. Jon Heyman tweeted that one Boston scout said he is "the next Paul Goldschmidt," (see link),

 

https://www.google.com/amp/nesn.com/2016/03/scout-calls-red-sox-prospect-sam-travis-the-next-paul-goldschmidt/amp/?client=safari

 

While that's obviously a stretch, the organization definitely has high hopes for him and he is probably the biggest reason why they didn't pursue any 1st base options for longer than a year. Either way, he's an easy guy to root for.

 

I'm hopeful, but I think it's a big stretch comparing him to PG.

 

It's not like he broke into pro ball at age 18 or has just 600 minor league PAs. He's gotten over 1000 PAs and has a very respectable .816 OPS, but the guy is going to have to start putting up monster numbers on the farm to make me start thinking he's PG's second coming.

 

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'm hopeful, but I think it's a big stretch comparing him to PG.

 

It's not like he broke into pro ball at age 18 or has just 600 minor league PAs. He's gotten over 1000 PAs and has a very respectable .816 OPS, but the guy is going to have to start putting up monster numbers on the farm to make me start thinking he's PG's second coming.

 

 

I agree. The scout who said that was very likely the same scout who begged the Sox to draft the kid. At least we'll know if he does fail, it won't be for lack of effort.

[moonslav59]

I agree. The scout who said that was very likely the same scout who begged the Sox to draft the kid. At least we'll know if he does fail, it won't be for lack of effort.

 

That's what you got to love about ST. He's a hard worker.

 

What a great relief it would be, if Travis and Devers could replace Pablo and HanRam with improved productivity at a super low cost. It would probably allow us to keep just about all or our top talent beyond their current years of control.

[Fisk]

I believe Travis can eventually be a 280 hitter, with 15-20 homers, and a lot of doubles. I'm high on him, a pure gritty player.

[Bellhorn04]

Plus you almost have to be really good with the name Sam Travis.

[sk7326]

I'm hopeful, but I think it's a big stretch comparing him to PG.

 

It's not like he broke into pro ball at age 18 or has just 600 minor league PAs. He's gotten over 1000 PAs and has a very respectable .816 OPS, but the guy is going to have to start putting up monster numbers on the farm to make me start thinking he's PG's second coming.

 

 

Travis' upside is probably more like Mark Grace or (if you squint really hard) John Olerud. Which ain't shabby at all.

[Fisk]

Travis' upside is probably more like Mark Grace or (if you squint really hard) John Olerud. Which ain't shabby at all.

 

I like the Grace comp think they will be very similar hitters, not as good in the field.

[moonslav59]

Travis' upside is probably more like Mark Grace or (if you squint really hard) John Olerud. Which ain't shabby at all.

 

No, not at all.

[harmony]

Travis' upside is probably more like Mark Grace or (if you squint really hard) John Olerud. Which ain't shabby at all.

John Olerud posted 58.0 bWAR (57.3 fWAR) in 17 seasons while Mark Grace posted 46.1 bWAR (45.5 fWAR) in 16 seasons. As a point of reference, David Ortiz posted 55.4 bWAR (50.5 fWAR) in 20 seasons.

 

The average prospect of Travis' age and prospect ranking accumulates less than four WAR in the seven years following the ranking:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-to-expect-from-baseball-americas-top-100-prospects/

[moonslav59]

John Olerud posted 58.0 bWAR (57.3 fWAR) in 17 seasons while Mark Grace posted 46.1 bWAR (45.5 fWAR) in 16 seasons. As a point of reference, David Ortiz posted 55.4 bWAR (50.5 fWAR) in 20 seasons.

 

The average prospect of Travis' age and prospect ranking accumulates less than four WAR in the seven years following the ranking:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-to-expect-from-baseball-americas-top-100-prospects/

 

Comparing a 1Bman's WAR with a DH's WAR is highly unfair. WAR deducts positional value for being a DH.

[sk7326]

John Olerud posted 58.0 bWAR (57.3 fWAR) in 17 seasons while Mark Grace posted 46.1 bWAR (45.5 fWAR) in 16 seasons. As a point of reference, David Ortiz posted 55.4 bWAR (50.5 fWAR) in 20 seasons.

 

The average prospect of Travis' age and prospect ranking accumulates less than four WAR in the seven years following the ranking:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-to-expect-from-baseball-americas-top-100-prospects/

 

All projections are bearish to some degree - I commented on upside not probability. Although Travis has moved quickly since he was drafted.

[moonslav59]

If we can replace HanRam's $22M with Travis and Pablo's $19M with Devers, we'll be in great shape to keep more of our stars before or when they reach free agency. If we get really lucky, and all three of our top prospects come through at a high level, then Groome can fill first Pom's role and then Porcello's or Sale, if we can't afford both.

 

Imagine if they all do great AND we can keep everybody but Pom:

 

Sale, Price, Porcello, Groome, Erod-Wright

Kimbrel, Thronburg, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Hembree, Ross

 

1) Beni LF

2) Travis 1B

3) Betts RF

4) Bogey SS

5) JBJ CF

6) Devers 3B

7) Pedey 2B

8) Dalbec DH

9) Swi-Vaz C

[Nick]

If we can replace HanRam's $22M with Travis and Pablo's $19M with Devers, we'll be in great shape to keep more of our stars before or when they reach free agency. If we get really lucky, and all three of our top prospects come through at a high level, then Groome can fill first Pom's role and then Porcello's or Sale, if we can't afford both.

 

Imagine if they all do great AND we can keep everybody but Pom:

 

Sale, Price, Porcello, Groome, Erod-Wright

Kimbrel, Thronburg, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Hembree, Ross

 

1) Beni LF

2) Travis 1B

3) Betts RF

4) Bogey SS

5) JBJ CF

6) Devers 3B

7) Pedey 2B

8) Dalbec DH

9) Swi-Vaz C

 

My priority is

 

1) Keeping starting pitching in tact

2) Lock up Betts

3) Keep our OF together

 

That will get us close to the tax limit.

 

I would love to recycle Pablo out of here but highly unlikely. Has to be Ben's worst signing.

[Hugh2]

My priority is

 

1) Keeping starting pitching in tact

2) Lock up Betts

3) Keep our OF together

 

That will get us close to the tax limit.

 

I would love to recycle Pablo out of here but highly unlikely. Has to be Ben's worst signing.

 

I'd much rather Pablo performs because who plays 3rd if he leaves? And more importantly who would back that guy up? A year ago I'd prefer to ship Pablo out but at this point I'm hoping he can rebound his career. Devers is apx. two years away.

[Hugh2]

I think he felt the injury wasn't severe, and by the time he had the chance to reverse the trade, the deadline was past and we had little options.

 

I thought MLB should have allowed us to reverse the trade after the season as punishment to the Padres.

 

I ponder if DD may have in hindsight if he knew how the rest of the season would transpire for Pomeranz. You could make an argument for taking a Pomeranz out of the rotation at this point. Who wouldn't trade a 6th starter swing man for one of the top pitching prospects in the game.

[rkarp1]

Law also listed his top 10 by position, with Benni #1, Groome #1 lefty, Koepech #1 righty, Devers #1 3B (over Moncada)...Travis #4 1B

[Fisk]

I'd much rather Pablo performs because who plays 3rd if he leaves? And more importantly who would back that guy up? A year ago I'd prefer to ship Pablo out but at this point I'm hoping he can rebound his career. Devers is apx. two years away.

 

Devers is starting the year at Portland, once you get to double A its not to long until your ready, think there is a good chance he's ready in 18 and is a September call up. We need Pablo to play well, if not we are looking at Rutledge and over exposing Holt.

[Fisk]

Law also listed his top 10 by position, with Benni #1, Groome #1 lefty, Koepech #1 righty, Devers #1 3B (over Moncada)...Travis #4 1B

 

Imagine our system if we didn't trade Moncada, Kopech and Espinoza. Would be one of the best all time. Still happy to have Sale.

[moonslav59]

Imagine our system if we didn't trade Moncada, Kopech and Espinoza. Would be one of the best all time.

 

Then, when you see the list of recent prospect graduates and young players added to the prospect list, it looks even more amazing.

 

By age:

 

18: Kopech, Groome, Espinoza,

 

19: L Basabe, L Allen

 

20: Devers

 

22: Benintendi, Moncada, Dubon, V Diaz, Margot

 

23: F Montas, Travis

 

24: Betts, Bogey, ERod

 

25: Swihart, C Asuaje

 

 

 

[Fisk]

Like your list but I believe Kopech is 20 or 21