Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[Kimmi]

That long streak of ERAs well over 4, maybe? Broken by one year and given $80mil before finding out if that's a fluke.

 

ERAs well over 4 due in large part to the crappy defense behind him. He has posted WARs of 2.7, 2.8, and 2.7 in the last 3 seasons. That puts him in the #2 category.

[iortiz]

I think you are overestimating the WAR value of pitchers. Last year, there were 10 pitchers who posted a WAR of 5 or above. In each of the 2 previous years, there were only 7. Are you saying there are that few #1 pitchers in baseball?

 

I would take a longer sample. At least 10 Y to normalise the chart.

 

This is what FG suggests as a good rule-of-thumb

 

 

Scrub 0-1 WAR

Role Player 1-2 WAR

Solid Starter 2-3 WAR

Good Player 3-4 WAR

All-Star 4-5 WAR

Superstar 5-6 WAR

MVP 6+ WAR

 

#1s in my book are in the last three categories.

[Kimmi]

Based on his career numbers he is a 4.3 ERA pitcher #3-#4 type on my book.

 

Using ERA alone is a faulty way of judging a pitcher.

 

I posted earlier how bad the Tigers' infield defense was, and how that affected Porcello's ERA.

 

He is a better pitcher than his ERA reflects.

[iortiz]

While looking at a proven track record is always wise, the Sox have chosen to give Porcello a contract based on what they project for the future, rather than give a contract to Lester based on what he has done in the past. Porcello is likely to improve, Lester is likely to decline. The Sox are paying in part for Porcello's age and upside based on their metrics. Obviously, they think he will be worth it, more so than Lester will be worth his contract.

 

This is not a knock on Lester. I am among those who really wanted him re-signed. But the Sox not re-signing Lester does not make Porcello's deal a bad one.

 

As you said, only if he improves, otherwise it will be a bad one.

[iortiz]

Using ERA alone is a faulty way of judging a pitcher.

 

I posted earlier how bad the Tigers' infield defense was, and how that affected Porcello's ERA.

 

He is a better pitcher than his ERA reflects.

 

 

You do not like ERA, fine. Around 2.5 WAR players are not #2s or #1s by any means.

[Kimmi]

As you said, only if he improves, otherwise it will be a bad one.

 

If he maintains a 2.7 WAR over the life of the contract, it won't be a bad one.

[Kimmi]

You do not like ERA, fine. Around 2.5 WAR players are not #2s or #1s by any means.

 

Last year, Porcello's 2.7 WAR puts him tied for 38th among starting pitchers. That is a #2.

[Kimmi]

Also, over the past 10 years, the average number of pitchers per year with a WAR of 5 or higher is 10.

[iortiz]

If he maintains a 2.7 WAR over the life of the contract, it won't be a bad one.

 

Name me 2.7 WAR pitchers who made/will make 20 M and are committed to do so for 4 Y like Porcello.

[iortiz]

Also, over the past 10 years, the average number of pitchers per year with a WAR of 5 or higher is 10.

 

Those are aces. No 1s are in the range of 4-5. No. 2? 3-4. As I said he needs to improve. It is what the Sox are expecting from him to justify the contract since the DR% is below 2 digits and the contract is not that long.

[a700hitter]

Porcello was at best the #3 in his own team's rotation. That aside, I don't think that 1 good season in 6 full seasons elevates him to a number 2. When he signed his contract, he had been at best a #3 by all measures for almost his entire 6 year career. Whether he will do better, is not the point in the context of what I am saying. I hope they had solid information that he will improve, but at the time he signed he had been a career #3. The contract set a new value level for #3s and surely inflated the cost of pitching.

[iortiz]

Porcello was at best the #3 in his own team's rotation. That aside, I don't think that 1 good season in 6 full seasons elevates him to a number 2. When he signed his contract, he had been at best a #3 by all measures for almost his entire 6 year career. Whether he will do better, is not the point in the context of what I am saying. I hope they had solid information that he will improve, but at the time he signed he had been a career #3. The contract set a new value level for #3s and surely inflated the cost of pitching.

...or probably other teams won't drink that kool aid and won't pay what the sox paid for a #3 LOL!.

 

I think almost all the board has agreed that he is a #3 with a potential to become #2 (which I doubt since the BABIP death will kill him sooner or later to survive in ERAs below 4)

Edited May 4, 2015 by iortiz

[Bellhorn04]

I honestly don't think anybody can say anything about Porcello they haven't already said. How about this-from now on you can only post about Porcello on the days he pitches?

[iortiz]

I honestly don't think anybody can say anything about Porcello they haven't already said. How about this-from now on you can only post about Porcello on the days he pitches?

Haha you are right Bell, we have said everything about him already.

 

Time to track his performance from now on, and not only from him but the whole staff as well since this thread is about the whole rotation, isn't it? So let's do it!

[Spudboy]

I have been watching the Sox since 1966.

 

I know that I must have seen worse rotations. I must have, right?

 

In any case, with the exception of Wade Miley this is the rotation that I suggested the Sox would build. I do not assume any blame for suspecting that the Sox would go after both Porcello and Masterson.

 

I still like the Porcello signing ( although I would have waited until about June to re-sign him regardless of his desire not to talk during the season ). I do like Masterson but would only have signed him if the Sox had legit #1 and #2 starters on the team. I can see the low risk - moderate potential reward. It just won't work out on this staff and team.

 

These are just my opinions and everyone is surely welcome to attack me if that is how you wish to prove your manhood.

 

This team is toast.

 

Expensive toast.

[a700hitter]

I have been watching the Sox since 1966.

 

I know that I must have seen worse rotations. I must have, right?

 

In any case, with the exception of Wade Miley this is the rotation that I suggested the Sox would build. I do not assume any blame for suspecting that the Sox would go after both Porcello and Masterson.

 

I still like the Porcello signing ( although I would have waited until about June to re-sign him regardless of his desire not to talk during the season ). I do like Masterson but would only have signed him if the Sox had legit #1 and #2 starters on the team. I can see the low risk - moderate potential reward. It just won't work out on this staff and team.

 

These are just my opinions and everyone is surely welcome to attack me if that is how you wish to prove your manhood.

 

This team is toast.

 

Expensive toast.

 

Don't jump yet Spud. Things are never as bad as they look when a team is playing like this. We will not have 3 starters hitting under .200. The starting pitching will not have a 5.63 ERA. Plus, the rest of the division is a pile of manure.

[Spudboy]

I'm not jumping.

 

I do think that the Sox may have some dead bats going forward. Maybe not sub-Mendoza but bats that will deliver less than expected.

 

I can see the Sox starting ERA being over 4.25 or 4.5.

 

They suck or at best only average when they don't suck.

 

This team is consistently out-pitched.

[User Name]

Lester proved he could do it in Boston and was absolutely money in the playoffs. Porcello is a nice player who has never been an ace. Lester had been an ace for 5 seasons or so

 

Shut the f*** up. You've spent the last five seasons providing arguments as to why Lester was never ace-caliber. Get out of here with this ********.

[User Name]

3.06 ERA vs NL teams. You have to take into account the fact that he plays in the AL East. It's no surprise that you almost never see a starter dip below 3.00 ERA in the AL East. It's still arguably the toughest division to pitch in. Put him in an NL pitchers park and he'll enjoy a sub 3.00 ERA easy.

 

 

 

RIGHT NOW, I'm taking Lester over all of them except Kershaw, Felix, and Sale. The rest either haven't had enough sustained excellence (one or two good years isn't enough in my book. Promising, but if I'm looking to sign a #1, I'm taking the proven guy every time, money being equal) or have inflated #s due to the NL/etc. Price I think is a wash due to the unbelievable playoff success Lester has had, same with Scherzer and Wainwright. Tanaka, who knows if he can put together 4+ years of great pitching, we have yet to see that from a Japanese import.

 

You can put Lester where ever you want in that List, but in my opinion, there's at least a very good argument to have Lester in the top 4-10.

 

The straws you grasp at provide no shelter.

[User Name]

Higher AAV for less years so you only pay for a player's prime years. It's just not rocket science.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

shut the f*** up. You've spent the last five seasons providing arguments as to why lester was never ace-caliber. Get out of here with this ********.

 

qft

[TedWilliams101]

The straws you grasp at provide no shelter.

 

What straws? Other than the obvious 3 best pitchers in baseball, where do any of those guys have a big edge over Lester?

[Palodios]

Shut the f*** up. You've spent the last five seasons providing arguments as to why Lester was never ace-caliber. Get out of here with this ********.

 

This.

[Palodios]

Also, does anyone else feel like it is time to DFA Buchholz?

 

Here are his ERAs from the last four years:

 

6.03 ERA, 30IP

5.34 ERA, 170 IP

1.74 ERA, 108 IP

4.56 ERA, 190 IP

 

2013 looks very clearly like the outlier here. He's getting older, his pitches are only getting worse, and he's killing this team. He's already had 4 games where he basically handed the other team a win. I still have hope for the other guys, but Buch looks done.

[a700hitter]

Also, does anyone else feel like it is time to DFA Buchholz?

 

Here are his ERAs from the last four years:

 

6.03 ERA, 30IP

5.34 ERA, 170 IP

1.74 ERA, 108 IP

4.56 ERA, 190 IP

 

2013 looks very clearly like the outlier here. He's getting older, his pitches are only getting worse, and he's killing this team. He's already had 4 games where he basically handed the other team a win. I still have hope for the other guys, but Buch looks done.

When he had the hot start in2013, I was hoping to get a full season of around 180 innings out of him to build his trade value and get a haul of prospects for the last 2 years of his contract, but he couldn't stay healthy. He has stunk since then. He's a drag on the rotation, and I am not sure that he can turn it around.

[mvp 78]

I don't know how anyone could have counted on Buch to be more than a #5 guy. He's always too inconsistent and bot a leader. Masterson, Porcello and Miley are good enough to be in the rotation. If Kelly can't straighten out his pitch location, he needs to be a swing man. If nothing changes by 5/31, my rotation would be:

Porcello

Masterson

Miley

Rodriguez

Johnson

 

Kelly would be in the pen. I'd sell low on Buch and wish him the best of luck in Chicago with Theo.

[gojohn99]

Only the Rockies have a higher team ERA than the Sox.

The Sox are also 22 out of 28 with the highest batting average against.

 

This does not bode well.

[User Name]

What straws? Other than the obvious 3 best pitchers in baseball, where do any of those guys have a big edge over Lester?

 

How about consistency? Because it's convenient for the sake of whining, it's like 2011 (imploded), 2012 (sucked), 2013 (right above league average, but good playoffs SSS) never happened. Thos straws.

[User Name]

Also, does anyone else feel like it is time to DFA Buchholz?

 

Here are his ERAs from the last four years:

 

6.03 ERA, 30IP

5.34 ERA, 170 IP

1.74 ERA, 108 IP

4.56 ERA, 190 IP

 

2013 looks very clearly like the outlier here. He's getting older, his pitches are only getting worse, and he's killing this team. He's already had 4 games where he basically handed the other team a win. I still have hope for the other guys, but Buch looks done.

 

Spot on. I have specially high hopes for Miley, who has good stuff. An adjustment period for all three of the new guys was to be expected.

[sk7326]

One of the weird quirks about Buchholz' season ...

 

his K-rate is UP (27.9%), his walks are down (6.9%) and his FIP is actually outstanding (2.97). and the batted ball statistics are basically identical to his norms. The .407 BABIP has been the real bugaboo. I am not going to say this is all luck or anything - but Buchholz has the ERA of a terrible pitcher with the fundamentals of a pretty good one.