Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[a700hitter]

I think you underestimate just how bad Detroit's infield defense has been. Over the past 2 seasons, the infield defense has cost the Tigers 52 runs. Spreading those runs out over the starting rotation, Porcello's Defense-Adjusted ERA over the past 2 seasons would be 3.92 in 2013 and 3.03 in 2014.

 

In addition to better defenders, Porcello should also be helped out by the Red Sox' defensive shifting. Detroit is a team that has lagged behind in that regard.

 

Better pitch framing should also help Porcello. Avila was not very good at framing. Hanigan will not be as good as Vazquez, but he is still very strong in that area. Each extra strike is worth approximately .14 runs.

 

Playing at Fenway is not going to offset all that defensive advantage, especially since Porcello is a ground ball pitcher. He gives up more HRs to left handers, and will probably be helped out by playing in Fenway with its deep right field. Fenway has the 4th lowest HR index for left handed hitters, while Comerica is neutral. Porcello's high home run rate so far is more or less due to random variation, or flukiness.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/three-things-the-red-sox-will-do-for-rick-porcello/

 

Some good information Kimmi. I do have a couple of comments about some of this data. I think Porcello gave up more of his HRs to left-handed hitters because Comerica is shorter to RF and the park gives up more to HRs RF. Yes Fenway is longer to RF and this will help him against lefties, but Fenway is shorter to LF and gives up a ton of doubles. This will hurt him against right handed hitters, and there are more right handed hitters.

 

I am having a hard time recollecting a sinkerballer with a k rate as low as Porcello being successful at Fenway for an extended period.

 

IMO, Porcello will have to step up his k rate and keep the ball in the park to be successful at Fenway. He is not going to be able to continue hitting bats at the same rate as he has in his career and be a #2 for us. He has stepped up the k rate thus far, but he has had mixed results keeping the ball in the park.

[Bellhorn04]

I am having a hard time recollecting a sinkerballer with a k rate as low as Porcello being successful at Fenway for an extended period.

 

D-Lowe.

[mvp 78]

D-Lowe.

 

What did that drunkard ever do for us?!? A whole lotta nuthin'!!!

[a700hitter]

D-Lowe.

 

I always like D-Lowe and his k rate was very similar to Porcello. He had one great season as a starter that he followed up with seasons of ERAs of 4.5 and 5.4 - not very good. He did not have sustained success at Fenway as a starter. Other than that one season, he was never better than a #3.

[Spudboy]

So?

[Bellhorn04]

I always like D-Lowe and his k rate was very similar to Porcello. He had one great season as a starter that he followed up with seasons of ERAs of 4.5 and 5.4 - not very good. He did not have sustained success at Fenway as a starter. Other than that one season, he was never better than a #3.

 

If he didn't drink his way out of town in 2004 that might be different.

 

One of the all-time funniest splits: in 2004 D-Lowe had a 4.50 ERA in night games and an 8.26 ERA in 10 day games.

[a700hitter]

If he didn't drink his way out of town in 2004 that might be different.

 

One of the all-time funniest splits: in 2004 D-Lowe had a 4.50 ERA in night games and an 8.26 ERA in 10 day games.

He pitched a long time for a drunk, and he never had arm trouble. Porcello should hope to have as good a career as D-Lowe.

[Kimmi]

Some good information Kimmi. I do have a couple of comments about some of this data. I think Porcello gave up more of his HRs to left-handed hitters because Comerica is shorter to RF and the park gives up more to HRs RF. Yes Fenway is longer to RF and this will help him against lefties, but Fenway is shorter to LF and gives up a ton of doubles. This will hurt him against right handed hitters, and there are more right handed hitters.

 

I am having a hard time recollecting a sinkerballer with a k rate as low as Porcello being successful at Fenway for an extended period.

 

IMO, Porcello will have to step up his k rate and keep the ball in the park to be successful at Fenway. He is not going to be able to continue hitting bats at the same rate as he has in his career and be a #2 for us. He has stepped up the k rate thus far, but he has had mixed results keeping the ball in the park.

 

I'm not sure if Porcello's HR splits have much to do with Comerica's dimensions or just the fact that Porcello, being a RHP, has better numbers against RHB. His HRs are pretty evenly split between home and away parks (60 and 57, respectively), though that doesn't really prove anything.

 

At any rate, if Porcello can keep the ball on the ground, then he won't be hurt by Fenway's short LF. Pitchers' HR rates are unstable, with no obvious rhyme or reason. Here is a good read on why Porcello will likely overcome his early HR problem.

 

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/04/24/rick-porcellos-home-run-problem-an-illustrated-guide/

[iortiz]

These posts prove that you don't understand baseball economics, WAR, or pitcher value, and I say that without a hint of malice. You just don't know what you're talking about.

 

What you do not understand is how engineering economics, time value of money, cash flows, and discount rates work.

 

The discount rate used by FG to project salaries is 4%. This rate is not even comparable to some discount rates used in other industries which are at times above 2 digits. If we were talking about, say a discount rate used in some verticals of the chemical industry which are around 20%, I could understand and justify this 4 Y-contract looking forward, since the NPV would look pretty decent.

 

Said that, the only way this contract works, is that this guy improves his track record, which is to be seen.

Edited May 2, 2015 by iortiz

[mvp 78]

There's a reason different industries have different discount rates. Why bring up a rate that has nothing to do with MLB?

[iortiz]

To understand the cash flow and NPV we are talking about.

[User Name]

There's a reason different industries have different discount rates. Why bring up a rate that has nothing to do with MLB?

 

Because he doesn't really understand what he's talking about here, as I stated before.

[Spudboy]

lol

[iortiz]

Because he doesn't really understand what he's talking about here, as I stated before.

 

Nice try, but the fact you don't understand how the time value of money works is not my fault. Paying high AVV with discount rates at 4% is stupid.

[Spudboy]

Nice try, but the fact you don't understand how the time value of money works is not my fault. Paying high AVV with discount rates at 4% is stupid.

 

Even if the player values inflate at absurd and in a non-linear fashion?

 

That is the MAIN POINT of this discussion. That and the fact that you just don't like the deal.

[iortiz]

I

Even if the player values inflate at absurd and in a non-linear fashion?

 

That is the MAIN POINT of this discussion. That and the fact that you just don't like the deal.

 

That's the thing. I do not think he is going to improve. Some here disagree which is fine. IMO, At very best He'll post what his track record says and given the NPV of the contract, there's no way he worth 20 M in the next 4 Y, If he doesn't improve those numbers. Probably everyone here disagrees with my opinion, reason why I offered a bet which on paper was very friendly for those who think the opposite. It's going to be interesting.

[sk7326]

What you do not understand is how engineering economics, time value of money, cash flows, and discount rates work.

 

The discount rate used by FG to project salaries is 4%. This rate is not even comparable to some discount rates used in other industries which are at times above 2 digits. If we were talking about, say a discount rate used in some verticals of the chemical industry which are around 20%, I could understand and justify this 4 Y-contract looking forward, since the NPV would look pretty decent.

 

Said that, the only way this contract works, is that this guy improves his track record, which is to be seen.

 

He's 26 - betting improvement is extremely defensible. $20M is not the going rate for a #1 pitcher, it's the going rate for a #2/3, and in two years it will be the going rate for a #3/#4. The odds of the Porcello deal being a loser are actually quite low.

[User Name]

iortiz, you are trying to apply a bunch of out-of-subject ideas to this topic. That's why I say you don't know what you're talking about and you keep proving me correct.

[User Name]

Even if the player values inflate at absurd and in a non-linear fashion?

 

That is the MAIN POINT of this discussion. That and the fact that you just don't like the deal.

 

That's why he's trying to apply a bunch of nonsense to this idea. "Time and value of money?" What the hell is he talking about? The only constant in current baseball economics is salary inflation. Dude just doesn't know what he's talking about.

[mvp 78]

Because he doesn't really understand what he's talking about here, as I stated before.

 

It's like how my old boss went to a conference once and came back saying "SOP" fifty times a day. Use terminology to try to make a point seem more valid.

[iortiz]

He's 26 - betting improvement is extremely defensible. $20M is not the going rate for a #1 pitcher, it's the going rate for a #2/3, and in two years it will be the going rate for a #3/#4. The odds of the Porcello deal being a loser are actually quite low.

 

The discount rate to project salaries is at 4%, so 20 M in three/four years for a #3 is still too much.

 

My approach to grab a 4 ERA pitcher in a year basis would have been different without commit 80 M and likely cheaper.

Edited May 2, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

That's why he's trying to apply a bunch of nonsense to this idea. "Time and value of money?" What the hell is he talking about? The only constant in current baseball economics is salary inflation. Dude just doesn't know what he's talking about.

The salary inflation that FG uses to project salaries, does not justify high AVV unless he improves. As I said you do not understand how engineering economics work

[sk7326]

The salary inflation that FG uses to project salaries, does not justify high AVV unless he improves. As I said you do not understand how engineering economics work

 

But I think you hit on the disagreement. Using a basic discounted return on investment idea, you do have to project a growth rate in the inflows. That's what the Red Sox were doing - because of where he is as a 26 year old. Now if you think that is not likely, that certainly is a reasonable POV. I happen to disagree because 26 year olds improve all the time.

[User Name]

But I think you hit on the disagreement. Using a basic discounted return on investment idea, you do have to project a growth rate in the inflows. That's what the Red Sox were doing - because of where he is as a 26 year old. Now if you think that is not likely, that certainly is a reasonable POV. I happen to disagree because 26 year olds improve all the time.

 

The Red Sox projections are, considering market and player advancement arc trends, correct. There's just no other way to slice it. You can argue against it until you're blue in the face, but the logic itself is sound. We're not reinventing the wheel here.

[seabeachfred]

Anyone who would say they would take Porcine Porcello or Smiley Miley over Jon Lester this year, next year or the year after that is out of their f***ing minds. Lester is a proven two time WS winner, our best pitcher the last half-dozen years and a qualified ace. Porcy and Smiley are neither, never have been and never will be. Stop trying to hand the god damn front office a life line. They screwed up big time not resigning Lester and I said if before, say it now and will say in again when I return in a month, that neither of those two mediocrities can tough Lester as a pitcher.

[seabeachfred]

I

 

That's the thing. I do not think he is going to improve. Some here disagree which is fine. IMO, At very best He'll post what his track record says and given the NPV of the contract, there's no way he worth 20 M in the next 4 Y, If he doesn't improve those numbers. Probably everyone here disagrees with my opinion, reason why I offered a bet which on paper was very friendly for those who think the opposite. It's going to be interesting.

 

Israel my friend, as you know by now I'm signing off for a month as I did in 2012 and last season. When I got back both years the team was even worse than when I left but what really pisses me off is that we have posters on this board who claimed they would raise hell if the front office didn't go out and get us that ace and admonished me for being pre-mature about it. That was unadulterated ******** because I knew when it didn't come to pass they would worm their way into an acceptance of what the FO did. You didn't, 700 didn't, I didn't and some others didn't either if you read some of the game threads. Right now our rotation is solid s***, our offense is either way overrated or we have a pile of chokers who can't come through when we need a hit or two the most.. And this stuff of comparing those turds we got to Lester is sickening to the core. None of our rotation save Pukehholz has ever been a WS winner and Clay only because he won on the team. His contribution the second half of '13 and in the WS was s*** on rye. Lester was a two time WS winner and he is now better than anyone we have, he will be better next year and the year after that. What f***ing good is it to say, oh well, we have them until they turn 30-31 if in that interim we have a pack of near last place finishes?

 

There is an excellent chance we will be in last place again on June 2, and you can bet that some of us here will be declaring open season on the Red Sox front office, ownership, manager and team. We stink right now.

[mvp 78]

Lester hasn't been about the same as Porcello so far this year.

[mvp 78]

It's funny that Fred went after UN for disappearing last year, but he does the same most every season.

[User Name]

It's funny that Fred went after UN for disappearing last year, but he does the same most every season.

 

The best part: I was working, he simply bitched out, and you know this for a fact.

[mvp 78]

The best part: I was working, he simply bitched out, and you know this for a fact.

 

When the going gets rough, Fred bitches out. Fact!

 

Pink hats get bored when the Sox aren't winning all the time. Fact!

 

Fred took almost six decades to choose a team. Fact!

 

I'm not saying Fred IS a pink hat, but.....