Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[a700hitter]

Or not tick?

Buchholz's career has tick ticked and gone boom.

[Behindenemylines]

Every single one of these guys has had a very strong season within the last 3 years.

 

Buchholz 2013 12-1 1.74 BR-WAR 4.3

Porcello 2014 15-13 3.43 BR-WAR 4.0

Miley 2012 16-11 3.33 BR-WAR 3.5

Masterson 2013 14-10 3.45 BR-WAR 3.4

Kelly 2013 10-5 2.69 BR-WAR 2.6

 

I realize you'd have to be the ultimate cherry-picking Pollyanna to expect them to duplicate the above in 2015. Nonetheless, these guys have all at least proven that they can be successful pitchers. And they're all relatively young. So there is at least some rationale for optimism there.

 

If Sox don't hit like everyone believes they will this could be a long season. The hope for the Sox would be some of the teams with #1 in their walk years get off to poor starts and look to trade these guys. Until then I hope the Sox get enough from these guys to stay in contention. I think the only one that is 100% up to the task is Porcello. I think he will get 15 to 17 wins. Unfortunely, the talk of him being one and done with the Sox are already starting.

[Bellhorn04]

The Game 1 matchup of Buchholz vs. Hamels is a perfect setup for massive overreaction by RSN.

 

If Hamels pitches well and Clay doesn't, we will hear that the Sox FO were out of their minds thinking this staff was good enough, and that they blew it irrevocably not trading for Hamels.

 

If Clay pitches well and Hamels doesn't, we will hear that the Sox FO sure knew what they were doing on both counts!

 

[Kimmi]

I agree with everything you said here except that maybe there is someone who might know what makes him tick. If they know, they have been doing a good job of keeping it a secret. I hope it works out. We are going to need him to stay healthy and consistently decent.

 

 

That is true. No one has been able to figure out what makes him tick so far. I think he overthinks and 2nd guesses himself. I would not allow him to do any thinking for himself. The less he thinks, the better he'll be, IMO.

[Kimmi]

Or not tick?

 

 

I wonder how much time he has spent with a sports psychologist. IIRC, he has spoken to one in the past, but I don't know the extent of those meetings. If a sports psychologist can't help him get his head on straight, nothing will.

 

Except hopefully being given the Opening Day starter honor.

[Kimmi]

The Game 1 matchup of Buchholz vs. Hamels is a perfect setup for massive overreaction by RSN.

 

If Hamels pitches well and Clay doesn't, we will hear that the Sox FO were out of their minds thinking this staff was good enough, and that they blew it irrevocably not trading for Hamels.

 

If Clay pitches well and Hamels doesn't, we will hear that the Sox FO sure knew what they were doing on both counts!

 

 

 

LOL You hit the nail on the head Bellhorn. Either way, there's likely to be some massive overreaction after one game.

 

The good news for Sox fans is that the Phillies lineup really stinks. Of course, it won't be such good news if they end up scoring a bunch of runs off of Buchholz.

 

I read an article this morning that stated the Sox have a great chance of going 6-0 in their first 6 games.

[seabeachfred]

LOL You hit the nail on the head Bellhorn. Either way, there's likely to be some massive overreaction after one game.

 

The good news for Sox fans is that the Phillies lineup really stinks. Of course, it won't be such good news if they end up scoring a bunch of runs off of Buchholz.

 

I read an article this morning that stated the Sox have a great chance of going 6-0 in their first 6 games.

 

That article is full of more holes than Swiss cheese. We are NOT going 6-0 those first six games so please Kimmi get that out of your head. If we could go 4-2 it would be a good start. Besides, we have strange Clay Buchholz on the hill and he has been nothing short of crappy the past few years save one half of 2013. Cherington fashioned this pitching staff and his mouthpiece John Farrell has seconded the motion. If this unravels both are going to get it from the press, media and fans. This staff has to produce and on that score it would be very good for Buchholz and the rest of our crew to prevail on Monday and open the season with a win. For Clay that is very important for his psyche as well. A mentally deranged Buchholz is a travesty waiting to happen. Pitch us a win Clay and Xander, start off by clearing the bases once or twice to get us off to a flying start.

[sk7326]

That article is full of more holes than Swiss cheese. We are NOT going 6-0 those first six games so please Kimmi get that out of your head. If we could go 4-2 it would be a good start. Besides, we have strange Clay Buchholz on the hill and he has been nothing short of crappy the past few years save one half of 2013. Cherington fashioned this pitching staff and his mouthpiece John Farrell has seconded the motion. If this unravels both are going to get it from the press, media and fans. This staff has to produce and on that score it would be very good for Buchholz and the rest of our crew to prevail on Monday and open the season with a win. For Clay that is very important for his psyche as well. A mentally deranged Buchholz is a travesty waiting to happen. Pitch us a win Clay and Xander, start off by clearing the bases once or twice to get us off to a flying start.

 

Breathe.

 

Here is the basic bet they made. A durable rotation with some measure of youth + a good offense + a good defense + a good bullpen = a team good enough to stay near the top of the table while the starting pitching market reveals itself. Considering that the Red Sox in such a pitiful 2014 season did not actually truly fall out of the race until the all-star break, this seems like a safe bet (health caveat noted)

 

What is unfortunate for the Sox is how good the baseball economics are. The days of a Montreal team needing to deal an incumbent Cy Young award winner after the first of his "Koufax years" for monetary reasons is more or less dead. You take that and add the second wildcard spot - and most teams have to (because of fan expectations) start the season as if there is a Kansas City Royals run in them. If the team gives management the chance to add another guy - they will. Everything they have done to this point is set up to do so.

[Spudboy]

Breathe.

 

Here is the basic bet they made. A durable rotation with some measure of youth + a good offense + a good defense + a good bullpen = a team good enough to stay near the top of the table while the starting pitching market reveals itself. Considering that the Red Sox in such a pitiful 2014 season did not actually truly fall out of the race until the all-star break, this seems like a safe bet (health caveat noted)

 

 

What is unfortunate for the Sox is how good the baseball economics are. The days of a Montreal team needing to deal an incumbent Cy Young award winner after the first of his "Koufax years" for monetary reasons is more or less dead. You take that and add the second wildcard spot - and most teams have to (because of fan expectations) start the season as if there is a Kansas City Royals run in them. If the team gives management the chance to add another guy - they will. Everything they have done to this point is set up to do so.

 

I don't see this rotation as durable. Three guys have had numerous maladies last year. One is on the DL before the season starts and two have never pitched 200 innings.

 

The bullpen is a question mark as well. Our 6th starter was almost out of baseball three years ago and while he has improved, his ability to pitch effectively on the big stage has not yet been demonstrated.

 

I'm breathing. But I'm not excited about this team's pitching quite yet.

[Ogden]

That article is full of more holes than Swiss cheese. We are NOT going 6-0 those first six games so please Kimmi get that out of your head. If we could go 4-2 it would be a good start. Besides, we have strange Clay Buchholz on the hill and he has been nothing short of crappy the past few years save one half of 2013. Cherington fashioned this pitching staff and his mouthpiece John Farrell has seconded the motion. If this unravels both are going to get it from the press, media and fans. This staff has to produce and on that score it would be very good for Buchholz and the rest of our crew to prevail on Monday and open the season with a win. For Clay that is very important for his psyche as well. A mentally deranged Buchholz is a travesty waiting to happen. Pitch us a win Clay and Xander, start off by clearing the bases once or twice to get us off to a flying start.

 

 

 

They are facing Hamels, not Galen Cisco or some other stiff. Fragile Clay could pitch lights out and Hamels could still win the game. Or the bullpen could implode and give up 5 runs to those punch and judy hitters. Unfortunately there is 2 sides to the ball ... even though the ball is round.

[Kimmi]

That article is full of more holes than Swiss cheese. We are NOT going 6-0 those first six games so please Kimmi get that out of your head. If we could go 4-2 it would be a good start. Besides, we have strange Clay Buchholz on the hill and he has been nothing short of crappy the past few years save one half of 2013. Cherington fashioned this pitching staff and his mouthpiece John Farrell has seconded the motion. If this unravels both are going to get it from the press, media and fans. This staff has to produce and on that score it would be very good for Buchholz and the rest of our crew to prevail on Monday and open the season with a win. For Clay that is very important for his psyche as well. A mentally deranged Buchholz is a travesty waiting to happen. Pitch us a win Clay and Xander, start off by clearing the bases once or twice to get us off to a flying start.

 

 

Believe me Fred, I am not expecting us to start 6-0. I was merely stating something that I read. I would love it if we win both series and start off 4-2 like you said, but I would actually be okay if we could go 3-3 and come home with a .500 record on the road.

 

Here's to hoping that Clay gets the team off on the right track.

[Kimmi]

Breathe.

 

Here is the basic bet they made. A durable rotation with some measure of youth + a good offense + a good defense + a good bullpen = a team good enough to stay near the top of the table while the starting pitching market reveals itself. Considering that the Red Sox in such a pitiful 2014 season did not actually truly fall out of the race until the all-star break, this seems like a safe bet (health caveat noted)

 

What is unfortunate for the Sox is how good the baseball economics are. The days of a Montreal team needing to deal an incumbent Cy Young award winner after the first of his "Koufax years" for monetary reasons is more or less dead. You take that and add the second wildcard spot - and most teams have to (because of fan expectations) start the season as if there is a Kansas City Royals run in them. If the team gives management the chance to add another guy - they will. Everything they have done to this point is set up to do so.

 

 

Solid post SK. Keep 'em coming.

[iortiz]

Porcello got an extension. Seems like 82/4. They really like the guy. I do not like Porcello at all and much less at that price but let's see how it works out.

[a700hitter]

Porcello got an extension. Seems like 82/4. They really like the guy. I do not like Porcello at all and much less at that price but let's see how it works out.

The gave Porcello $12 million more than they offered Lester last Spring without Porcello having thrown a pitch for the Sox. I am not sure that I get that. What was the rush?

[User Name]

Porcello got an extension. Seems like 82/4. They really like the guy. I do not like Porcello at all and much less at that price but let's see how it works out.

 

Whether you like him or not is unimportant when confronted with the facts:

 

He's young, durable, and has been trending upwards statistically for several years. That being said, the overpay part seems correct. Too much money.

[alphilip77]

The gave Porcello $12 million more than they offered Lester last Spring without Porcello having thrown a pitch for the Sox. I am not sure that I get that. What was the rush?

 

My guess is they wanted to hedge their bets and pay for potential. Porcello is a unique case among next year's crop of FA pitchers. He's a groundball pitcher whose pitched well leading up to a career year in 2014. His peripherals suggest that he was the victim of poor defense during his tenure in Detroit, something that should be remedied with a better infield defense (though I'm rather tentative on including Bogaerts). Throw in that he's 26 going on 27, is a quality #3 (potentially #2), not to mention durable and you'd could see some team (i.e. NY) throwing bookoo money at him next winter. If last year is any indication of where Porcello is trending, this will end up as a solid deal.

[Palodios]

The gave Porcello $12 million more than they offered Lester last Spring without Porcello having thrown a pitch for the Sox. I am not sure that I get that. What was the rush?

 

How about this for perspective: If they had 80 million to spare, why didn't they even look at Shields?

 

The Red Sox have been very clear that they don't like pitchers over 30. With this deal, they get Porcello for ages 26-30. There are plenty of numbers to support the strategy -- pitchers are at their best for those years. I am fairly certain that Cueto/Price/Zimmerman aren't coming to the Sox unless the prices drop. They're probably going to go hard after Kenta Maeda or the a Cuban phenom.

[iortiz]

The gave Porcello $12 million more than they offered Lester last Spring without Porcello having thrown a pitch for the Sox. I am not sure that I get that. What was the rush?

 

He has a terrible track record aside his 2013 season. His SO/9 is horrible even in his last unique good year. Porcello is not even close in my radar when I try to find some potencial 20 M/Y pitchers to throw at. I do not understand the rush either. This guy hasn't proved anything to deserve this kind of money, and one year is not a justification by any means. You passed on Shields and Lester but signed this nobody for 80? I don't not get it, really; he is young and all but again, do not understand the rush. Hopefully I'm wrong and he becomes for us at least a solid #2.

Edited April 7, 2015 by iortiz

[mvp 78]

Terrible?

 

[cp176]

Bottom line for me is that if the Sox see what they want they get it. Right or wrong - they appear to not be limited by budgetary restrictions at all. i like Porcello and I hope that this signing works out for them. I'm not worried about it though. If it doesn't somebody else will be coming in. If they had wanted Lester badly enough' he would have been pitching for the Sox yesterday.

[cp176]

Bottom line for me is that if the Sox see what they want they get it. Right or wrong - they appear to not be limited by budgetary restrictions at all. i like Porcello and I hope that this signing works out for them. I'm not worried about it though. If it doesn't somebody else will be coming in. If they had wanted Lester badly enough' he would have been pitching for the Sox yesterday.

 

For you folks that think they have some type of budget that they are running this franchise by, well I wish I had their budget.

Good for Rick Porcello. If nothing else he has proven to me that he is a bright young man.

[cp176]

How about this for perspective: If they had 80 million to spare, why didn't they even look at Shields?

 

The Red Sox have been very clear that they don't like pitchers over 30. With this deal, they get Porcello for ages 26-30. There are plenty of numbers to support the strategy -- pitchers are at their best for those years. I am fairly certain that Cueto/Price/Zimmerman aren't coming to the Sox unless the prices drop. They're probably going to go hard after Kenta Maeda or the a Cuban phenom.

 

 

Given the $ that they have been throwing around, i don't see how you can say that they won't be in play for the top free agent pitchers on the market next year. If the youngsters don't come along quickly, I think that they absolutely will. Buccholtz pitched a beauty yesterday but i wonder whether he would have been willing to trade places with Porcello. Let's see - pitch opening day or sign a 4 year extension for 20 huge ones per year. He got a feel good start and did a super job with it.

[User Name]

He has a terrible track record aside his 2013 season. His SO/9 is horrible even in his last unique good year. Porcello is not even close in my radar when I try to find some potencial 20 M/Y pitchers to throw at. I do not understand the rush either. This guy hasn't proved anything to deserve this kind of money, and one year is not a justification by any means. You passed on Shields and Lester but signed this nobody for 80? I don't not get it, really; he is young and all but again, do not understand the rush. Hopefully I'm wrong and he becomes for us at least a solid #2.

 

Bro, do you even know what terrible means?

[a700hitter]

Bottom line for me is that if the Sox see what they want they get it. Right or wrong - they appear to not be limited by budgetary restrictions at all. i like Porcello and I hope that this signing works out for them. I'm not worried about it though. If it doesn't somebody else will be coming in. If they had wanted Lester badly enough' he would have been pitching for the Sox yesterday.

I'm just not sure why they did this so soon. We keep how he was a victim of poor defense in Detroit, but isn't a pretty pitcher friendly ballpark? Why not wait a half a dozen starts to see how his stuff plays at Fenway. Also, this contract provides a context for how unrealistic the Red Sox first offer to Lester was. The Red Sox lock down Miley without him throwing a pitch for us and then they do the same for Porcello, but they let the big fish off the hook? I am not quite sure that I get that strategy. Locking down Buchholz early was not exactly the best strategy. That contract has not returned a lot of value.

Edited April 7, 2015 by a700hitter

[Bellhorn04]

I'm just not sure why they did this so soon. We keep how he was a victim of poor defense in Detroit, but isn't a pretty pitcher friendly ballpark? Why not wait a half a dozen starts to see how his stuff plays at Fenway. Also, this contract provides a context for how unrealistic the Red Sox first offer to Lester was. The Red Sox lock down Miley without him throwing a pitch for us and then they do the same for Porcello, but they let the big fish off the hook? I am not quite sure that I get that strategy. Locking down Buchholz early was not exactly the best strategy. That contract has not returned a lot of value.

 

OTOH, the lockdown they did with Lester returned big value.

 

Pitchers are risky plain and simple.

[cp176]

I'm just not sure why they did this so soon. We keep how he was a victim of poor defense in Detroit, but isn't a pretty pitcher friendly ballpark? Why not wait a half a dozen starts to see how his stuff plays at Fenway. Also, this contract provides a context for how unrealistic the Red Sox first offer to Lester was. The Red Sox lock down Miley without him throwing a pitch for us and then they do the same for Porcello, but they let the big fish off the hook? I am not quite sure that I get that strategy. Locking down Buchholz early was not exactly the best strategy. That contract has not returned a lot of value.

 

I agree with you. They have the money to throw around and they are doing it I guess. I've tried to figure out what they are doing and for sure I can't. I think that their plan is to win, and money spent I don't think is a big factor. I like their deals over all but I don't think that they are outsmarting anyone. I think they see something they want and they are willing to spend for it. i did like Porcello's comments about the red Sox work ethic. I am a big Brian Butterfield fan. Personally, I think that it is a good time to be a Sox fan. Looks like they are operating on the "if you can't beat them join them theory." There might be some who think that they are done spending. I think that if they feel a need they will spend.

[Kimmi]

The gave Porcello $12 million more than they offered Lester last Spring without Porcello having thrown a pitch for the Sox. I am not sure that I get that. What was the rush?

 

 

I had read yesterday morning, before this deal was announced, that the Sox and Porcello had agreed to hold off on extension talks until the end of the season. I am guessing that the rush was that Porcello stated that he would not discuss contracts during the season. So, if the deal was not done now, it would not be discussed again until the end of the season.

 

At that time, Porcello's stock might be a lot higher than it is now. If Porcello pitches well, you can almost bet he would be getting more than 4 years. This is something that the FO wants to avoid, if possible.

 

Yes, it's a risk, but IMO, a good risk to take. I'm guessing that Porcello will pitch well enough to be worth the contract. This is also one less thing Ben has to worry about next offseason.

[Kimmi]

That being said, the overpay part seems correct. Too much money.

 

 

Yes, probably too much money. However, this is sticking with the FO's philosophy of higher AAV for fewer years. Porcello is young, and if he pitches well this season, you can almost bet that he would have received a contract for longer than 4 years if he hit FA.

[Kimmi]

For you folks that think they have some type of budget that they are running this franchise by, well I wish I had their budget.

Good for Rick Porcello. If nothing else he has proven to me that he is a bright young man.

 

 

Of course they have a budget CP. They have always been willing to spend, despite some people calling them tight, but they do operate within a budget.

[Palodios]

Here's an interesting article from last month: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rick-porcellos-upcoming-enormous-payday/

 

 

The other comparison I keep thinking about is Mark Buerhle. The Marlins paid 56 million (plus a 19 million dollar option) for a 32 year old with low strikeouts and an ERA around 4.00.

 

iOrtiz, I distinctly remember you and I agreeing that he was probably going to be worth it, despite that he was only a #2/3 at best. Surprise surprise, Buerhle is 36 and is chasing his 200th win in the majors.