Sox Acquire Porcello, Miley, and Masterson

[a700hitter]

Shields is a horse. There is no doubt about that. He's the anti-Buchholz. Get Shields and package up Buch and Kelly and XB for Hamels and get Drew back to play SS until Marrero is ready.

[mvp 78]

I'd rather Marrero play on 4/1 than bring Drew back.

[User Name]

Wonder if the FO is really in the hunt for Shields as they apparently were for Lester. After watching the numbers and his durability would be a mistake not landing this guy at whatever price even if this means entering in a bidding war with NYY, LAD or eventually DET.

 

The "whatever price" mentality is probably the worst way to go about roster building. That is terrible terrible thinking.

 

As for Shields, those who don't think he's a number 1 should not only look at the already-presented stats, but should take a look at the fact that his fastball velocity has actually improved over the last couple of seasons.

 

 

It has improved from 91 MPH to 92.4 MPH from 11-14.

[User Name]

Shields is a horse. There is no doubt about that. He's the anti-Buchholz. Get Shields and package up Buch and Kelly and XB for Hamels and get Drew back to play SS until Marrero is ready.

 

This is a terrible, terrible idea. The continued desire to trade XB for an overly expensive #2 shows your lack of foresight. The funny thing is, if they do trade XB and he turns into a star in Philly. you'll be the first one whining about how they have "identified his potential and not trading him".

[BSN07]

No but it's built to contend for the division during the season. If a #1 doesn't emerge from the group they have assembled they will have to shop in June-July. I honestly feel there will be better options then. Shields, Scherzer, and Hamels all cost too much in one way or another. I don't see Cueto getting dealt until after the AS break and that is only if Cincy is out of it. There will be some more rentals but we will have to see which teams fall out before we know for sure.

[Palodios]

I am starting to wonder why I was against a Shields signing in the first place. If he was 3 years younger, he'd be a 200 million dollar bet, so why is 110 million so much ? Age is the only red flag here, he has been an healthy horse in the AL East his whole career.

 

Cueto has had so many health issues over the last few years and has only broken the 180 IP mark twice.

[User Name]

I am starting to wonder why I was against a Shields signing in the first place. If he was 3 years younger, he'd be a 200 million dollar bet, so why is 110 million so much ? Age is the only red flag here, he has been an healthy horse in the AL East his whole career.

 

Cueto has had so many health issues over the last few years and has only broken the 180 IP mark twice.

 

I'd give Shields 5/110 and if he takes it, essentially call it an offseason.

[BSN07]

Because in todays game at age 33 Shields is already out of his prime imo. Yes he could be productive for those years or he could fall off a cliff like Halladay. You're a horse until you aren't. And they tend to fall off quick. You sign Shields to his age 38-39 season and your are all but guaranteeing its going to happen at some point during the deal you have given him.

 

It was the same with CC, we all knew being a horse was gonna catch up to him eventually. It was just when it would bite the Yankees in the ass.

 

The Sox stretched their comfort level for Lester. I don't see them doing it for a P entering his mid 30's.

[User Name]

CC and Shields are clearly not comparable. Halladay might be a better comp, but Halladay's fall happened due to injury, a risk that increases as a pitcher ages, so the argument has merit.

[Palodios]

Because in todays game at age 33 Shields is already out of his prime imo. Yes he could be productive for those years or he could fall off a cliff like Halladay. You're a horse until you aren't. And they tend to fall off quick. You sign Shields to his age 38-39 season and your are all but guaranteeing its going to happen at some point during the deal you have given him.

 

It was the same with CC, we all knew being a horse was gonna catch up to him eventually. It was just when it would bite the Yankees in the ass.

 

The Sox stretched their comfort level for Lester. I don't see them doing it for a P entering his mid 30's.

 

There are plenty of pitchers who have productive careers through their late 30s. Kuroda, Hudson, Schilling, Pettite, Mussina come to mind. Chris Carpenter had some rough years in the middle, but he pitched well through 37. These are all anecdotes, but it seems to me that high end pitchers do last a bit longer in the MLB.

[Spudboy]

I'd give Shields 5/110 and if he takes it, essentially call it an offseason.

 

Right. Add more BP help and that's it.

 

Of course the Sox may be looking to put one of their AAA arms in the pen.

 

I suspect that anyone who sees Shields as anything less than a legit #1 has not watched him pitch over the years. His recent performance in the playoff is what they are forming their opinion on.

 

I have no problem with 5/120 for this guy. If anyone is a candidate to continue to pitch well into his mid and upper 30's it's him.

[sk7326]

Over the last 4 years, Shields has averaged 233 IP, a 3.17 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in the AL. That's 1st in IP, 5th for ERA, 6th in WAR, 5th in Wins, 8th in WHIP over that span.

 

Most of those numbers are better than Verlander's, Darvish's, Scherzer's and Lester's. Very similar to Price/Felix, except those guys had slightly better ERA/WHIP over fewer innings. He has been worlds better than real #2s like Anibel Sanchez, Josh Beckett, John Lackey.

 

Shields is a #1 pitcher. That shouldn't be questioned. The question is whether he will still be an ace into his mid and late 30s.

 

Sure it can. Shields has spent his entire career playing in ideal run prevention environments. He has played for teams whose homes were pitchers parks, and who were elite defensive lineups. His peripherals are not in the Darvish/Felix/Price realm by any stretch. Now he does compare favorably with 2011-2013 Lester - but that Lester does not compare with the guys I mentioned either. (2014 was the best Lester season since 2009) It's also why I have been comfortable calling Lester (pre 2014) as a fringy #1 starter and excellent #2 (which is not a dig at all, still very much worth the contract he got).

 

Can Shields remain durable for 5 more years - sure. Can he still have the sexy numbers moving into less pitching friendly environs for the first time? I doubt it - but for him to be valuable he probably doesn't have to.

[User Name]

James Shields ERA+ 2012-2014: 120

 

Yu Darvish ERA+ 2012-2014: 124

 

David Price ERA+ 2012-2014: 132

 

Shields actually does compare favorably to Darvish and Price in reference to ERA+, which controls for park factors.

[BSN07]

There are plenty of pitchers who have productive careers through their late 30s. Kuroda, Hudson, Schilling, Pettite, Mussina come to mind. Chris Carpenter had some rough years in the middle, but he pitched well through 37. These are all anecdotes, but it seems to me that high end pitchers do last a bit longer in the MLB.

 

Only 2 of those guys have pitched outside the steroid era. But yes I get there are exceptions to what I'm saying. But do we really want lay down a 5 year gamble and hope they get the exception to the rule? I think it's less of a gamble to wait it out. Maybe Shields market falls to a more comfortable level idk, if not maybe sign another mid rotation guy and see what front end guys are available come the TDL.

[GomesBeard]

I've never been a big Shields fan - maybe it's that stupid nickname that turns me off. But given the current rotation (which I like but agree that it is more of a regular-season rotation than playoffs, and depends on a lot of 'if's' coming to fruition), I'd rather see them get Shields than Hamels. Shields only costs them money, and I would rather keep the kids than trade them for someone who hasn't been tested - and succeeded - in 2 tough divisions like Shields has. I wouldn't worry about years 4 and 5 of a 5-year deal. That's 3 years away, and a lot can happen in that time. And it's only money.

[iortiz]

Shields is a horse. There is no doubt about that. He's the anti-Buchholz. Get Shields and package up Buch and Kelly and XB for Hamels and get Drew back to play SS until Marrero is ready.

 

Like the idea. Shields and Hamels would be terrific additions. I just wouldn't sign Drew again. In this scenario I'd rather Hanley or even Holt at SS. But I Iike this.

[sk7326]

James Shields ERA+ 2012-2014: 120

 

Yu Darvish ERA+ 2012-2014: 124

 

David Price ERA+ 2012-2014: 132

 

Shields actually does compare favorably to Darvish and Price in reference to ERA+, which controls for park factors.

 

Shields is definitely one of those guys for whom WAR flavor matters a lot - he has been near the equal of the guys mentioned in a lot of ways. Depending on how you look at things, you can argue he has gotten (from his park and from his teammates) the most help too. It is an interesting evaluation. I have zero issue with giving him 5/110. On a staff like this he gives them a lot of certainty. There won't be an ace in the "conquering hero" sense, but a rotation full of starters who can win the day.

[Palodios]

Sure it can. Shields has spent his entire career playing in ideal run prevention environments. He has played for teams whose homes were pitchers parks, and who were elite defensive lineups. His peripherals are not in the Darvish/Felix/Price realm by any stretch.

 

Price and Felix have both pitched in ideal environments as well. I am not going to argue that Shields is better than them, but that doesn't mean he isn't a top 5 pitcher in the AL. I would put him ahead of Darvish because he has pitched significantly more innings than Darvish -- We're talking an extra 52 IP a year.

[RedSoxNC84]

Like the idea. Shields and Hamels would be terrific additions. I just wouldn't sign Drew again. In this scenario I'd rather Hanley or even Holt at SS. But I Iike this.

 

Hanley doesn't want to play SS anymore as far as I remember. Holt would be a serviceable replacement, but he's not a starter. I honestly think he played a little over his head last season and could regress. He's definitely an off the bench utility guy.

 

I think we sign Shields and call it a day, if he can be had for a reasonable contract, that might be the best move really. As much as I'd like to see Hamels in a sox uni, I think trading for him will simply cost too much.

[RedSoxNC84]

Price and Felix have both pitched in ideal environments as well. I am not going to argue that Shields is better than them, but that doesn't mean he isn't a top 5 pitcher in the AL. I would put him ahead of Darvish because he has pitched significantly more innings than Darvish -- We're talking an extra 52 IP a year.

 

I can agree and disagree a little here. Shields is proven and effective, Darvish had a down year because of injury IIRC. His K/9 is outrageous for a starter though.

[sk7326]

Price and Felix have both pitched in ideal environments as well. I am not going to argue that Shields is better than them, but that doesn't mean he isn't a top 5 pitcher in the AL. I would put him ahead of Darvish because he has pitched significantly more innings than Darvish -- We're talking an extra 52 IP a year.

 

Felix to a degree, but he has also pitched demonstrably better than Shields (or Price or just about anybody else).

 

And a lot of the evaluation comes about how much the team behind him helps. It is one of the interesting areas of debate - I get conflicted too. Shields gives up more batted balls than the other guys, and can he still hold up without a great defense behind him. I think he's a good pitcher no doubt.

[iortiz]

Shields is definitely one of those guys for whom WAR flavor matters a lot - he has been near the equal of the guys mentioned in a lot of ways. Depending on how you look at things, you can argue he has gotten (from his park and from his teammates) the most help too. It is an interesting evaluation. I have zero issue with giving him 5/110. On a staff like this he gives them a lot of certainty. There won't be an ace in the "conquering hero" sense, but a rotation full of starters who can win the day.

 

Probably 110 M doesn't get the deal done, but I do not see he getting more than 130 M either... So something in between still would be ok for me.

Edited December 15, 2014 by iortiz

[GomesBeard]

Bogaerts is going to get the chance at SS, which is the right thing to do. The Sox need to see whether he can play a full season there, not moving him around. I think he will succeed and be a really good player for us for a long time.

[seabeachfred]

Shields is a horse. There is no doubt about that. He's the anti-Buchholz. Get Shields and package up Buch and Kelly and XB for Hamels and get Drew back to play SS until Marrero is ready.

 

Hot damn Ted----that is exactly what I would do and have talked about it in pieces for the past month. Hamels and Shields for our No. 1 and 2 men. Package XB who I think is expendable since we need a sound defensive man on short (which X isn't is and also because he can't hit with men on base for a damn) With those two I would go along with moving Kelly, and I said it the other day....this time I would sign Drew because he would now have a solid ST background entering the season and would not be holding out for the big bucks---which he certainly is not going to get. Now if Cherington would only get his head out.

[cp176]

Hot damn Ted----that is exactly what I would do and have talked about it in pieces for the past month. Hamels and Shields for our No. 1 and 2 men. Package XB who I think is expendable since we need a sound defensive man on short (which X isn't is and also because he can't hit with men on base for a damn) With those two I would go along with moving Kelly, and I said it the other day....this time I would sign Drew because he would now have a solid ST background entering the season and would not be holding out for the big bucks---which he certainly is not going to get. Now if Cherington would only get his head out.

 

The Red sox can do anything they want to do. They have as much money at at their disposal as a team could have. They have plenty of tradeable options to better themselves. Question is - do they do anything more than they already have? The game has changed and we all know it. It is just so nice when good players come through your farm system but most of us have it figured out that it is all about the money these days. I say why not win. Zimmerman or Hamels in a trade and sign Shields. I like our chances then. The only thing I liked about King George was that he said it like he believed it was. It is time to play a power game. Management needs to stop pretending that we exist in a different era. And while I am on a little rant no one will ever convince me that XB will be anything more than what we call a plus minus ss at this level. He may become adequate but I don't think he ever becomes a good big league ss. It is a pivotal position and it makes no difference who is playing beside him. He may although become a very good hitter. Would not trouble me at all to see him traded. To get - you might have to give. Hang on to Betts though!

[User Name]

Hot damn Ted----that is exactly what I would do and have talked about it in pieces for the past month. Hamels and Shields for our No. 1 and 2 men. Package XB who I think is expendable since we need a sound defensive man on short (which X isn't is and also because he can't hit with men on base for a damn) With those two I would go along with moving Kelly, and I said it the other day....this time I would sign Drew because he would now have a solid ST background entering the season and would not be holding out for the big bucks---which he certainly is not going to get. Now if Cherington would only get his head out.

 

This is a terrible idea. We get that you dislike Bogaerts, but trading him now would only give you license to whine about the fo when he becomes a star. Your idea is bad, and you should feel bad.

[User Name]

The Red sox can do anything they want to do. They have as much money at at their disposal as a team could have. They have plenty of tradeable options to better themselves. Question is - do they do anything more than they already have? The game has changed and we all know it. It is just so nice when good players come through your farm system but most of us have it figured out that it is all about the money these days. I say why not win. Zimmerman or Hamels in a trade and sign Shields. I like our chances then. The only thing I liked about King George was that he said it like he believed it was. It is time to play a power game. Management needs to stop pretending that we exist in a different era. And while I am on a little rant no one will ever convince me that XB will be anything more than what we call a plus minus ss at this level. He may become adequate but I don't think he ever becomes a good big league ss. It is a pivotal position and it makes no difference who is playing beside him. He may although become a very good hitter. Would not trouble me at all to see him traded. To get - you might have to give. Hang on to Betts though!

 

So all of the scouts and analysts who see potential for superstar offense and adequate defense in XB are wrong, but the pundits here at talksox have him all figured out because of rookie struggles? You know what happens when you make stupid panic moves like that? Lance Berkman happens.

[iortiz]

This is a terrible idea. We get that you dislike Bogaerts, but trading him now would only give you license to whine about the fo when he becomes a star. Your idea is bad, and you should feel bad.

 

Terrible for you, not for some of us.

 

we get that u do not like this but do u have to say this over and over again?, really?

[User Name]

Terrible for you, not for some of us.

 

we get that u do not like this but do u have to say this over and over again?, really?

 

Discussion is what forums are for. If you don't like people supporting their opinions about the Red Sox here, then you shouldn't be on a Red Sox forum.

[iortiz]

Not sure why you whine all the time about other people whining when they are not even whining at all. Don't you get tired of this?