2014 Offseason Thread

[sk7326]

So i still haven't seen a reputable source rank Rodriguez higher than Owens.

 

True - although in this list it's 20 vs 29, which is a small gap. It really is a stuff vs feel/IQ thing. I think the industry consensus that I've seen is Rodriguez has better stuff but is also farther away.

[Palodios]

It still seems incredible that the Red Sox got Rodriguez from the Andrew Miller trade. It is also pretty crazy that he was only the Orioles third best pitching prospect.

[sk7326]

It still seems incredible that the Red Sox got Rodriguez from the Andrew Miller trade. It is also pretty crazy that he was only the Orioles third best pitching prospect.

 

Seems like change of scenery helped. But also it speaks to the "stuff guy who seems far away" thing. I think the O's saw his rawness and decided it was worth the calculated gamble.

[iortiz]

20?,27?... Whatever.

 

Let's wait how they perform at MLB level. Look what happened with WM and JBJ.

[sk7326]

20?,27?... Whatever.

 

Let's wait how they perform at MLB level. Look what happened with WM and JBJ.

 

True - both were overpromoted, and it seemed true at the time too.

[mvp 78]

I've gotten the impression that their evaluations are not exactly spot on but hey, who's is?

 

I rarely go to that site but when I do I like that I can get a snapshot of the entire system all the way down to the Florida leagues. It's kind of cool to see who is on a role in high A and such. It's a good place to start when curious about any young Sox player.

 

The message board over there is too dry for my tastes. It lacks color and personality. Two traits that Talksox has in spades.

 

Overall, in my opinion, the site is not totally without merit.

 

Again, just my opinion.

It has merit. I just take their rankings with a truckload of salt.

[seabeachfred]

To be a fair moderstor, you have to play to both sides of the fence.

 

Here I'm trying to curb my temper and at least be willing to meet people both ways, but to co-moderate the board with you???? Eee ghads!!!!! Let's not go that far. Now if you and 700 Hitter want to undertake it, I give you my whole hearted support. My problem would come when the Red Sox go into a dive and I start having anger attacks. But I will endorse you and 700 if you're up to it----and I love that Friday suggestion. That would be a perfect out for those of us who want to rant and attack---as long as it meant nothing and no one took it personal when Friday ended and we returned to normal on Saturday.

[a700hitter]

Here I'm trying to curb my temper and at least be willing to meet people both ways, but to co-moderate the board with you???? Eee ghads!!!!! Let's not go that far. Now if you and 700 Hitter want to undertake it, I give you my whole hearted support. My problem would come when the Red Sox go into a dive and I start having anger attacks. But I will endorse you and 700 if you're up to it----and I love that Friday suggestion. That would be a perfect out for those of us who want to rant and attack---as long as it meant nothing and no one took it personal when Friday ended and we returned to normal on Saturday.

I was just joking, but the free for all Friday forum is a good idea.

[Spudboy]

Seems like change of scenery helped. But also it speaks to the "stuff guy who seems far away" thing. I think the O's saw his rawness and decided it was worth the calculated gamble.

 

As of now it looks as though the Sox "Won" that trade because they still have their acquired piece and he is very valuable being a projected mid-top of the rotation starter.

 

But when the trade was made it was exactly what Baltimore should have done. Secure an asset that would increase the chances of post season success.

[iortiz]

True - both were overpromoted, and it seemed true at the time too.

Bard was another.

 

I like prospects and all but how many of them even high rated end up in bush leagues/minors or at very best playing at mediocre MLB level?

 

I think that coaches have to be cautious and take young kids' careers carefully. Hopefully Betts and XB are for real as well.

[Spudboy]

Bard was over promoted?

 

He was lights out as a set up guy. Then he talked his way into a starting gig. That is where the Sox screwed up.

 

Should have left him in the pen.

 

And yes, I remember that he tailed off at the end of the season.

[iortiz]

Bard was over promoted?

 

He was lights out as a set up guy. Then he talked his way into a starting gig. That is where the Sox screwed up.

 

Should have left him in the pen.

 

And yes, I remember that he tailed off at the end of the season.

Another prospect that did not work out.

 

Probably for each consolidated prospect, out there are 20 high rated prospects, reason why FAs are usually better bets.

Edited January 29, 2015 by iortiz

[sk7326]

Bard was another.

 

I like prospects and all but how many of them even high rated end up in bush leagues/minors or at very best playing at mediocre MLB level?

 

I think that coaches have to be cautious and take young kids' careers carefully. Hopefully Betts and XB are for real as well.

 

Disagree on Bard - he was excellent for most of the season as a setup guy. Yes, it makes sense to try every pitcher as a starter before ruling it out, that was something that had to be (and was) done on the way up.

 

And of course how you handle prospects has to do with the kid too. Betts demolished every level before coming up - you couldn't keep him down. Bogaerts too sailed through levels legitimately. Last year was rough, but everything about Bogaerts' past says he will figure all of this out.

 

Bradley basically got a look in 2013 on the back of a handful of spring training ABs. (and Drew's injury granted) That is silly. He LOST his CF gig on the back of Grady Sizemore's handful of spring training ABs. That was sillier. With Middlebrooks, they reacted to a hot few weeks while Youk was hurt. If anything, the org's recent issues with prospects has been dithering with them when they don't deliver orgasmic levels of joyous performance at once.

 

I hate saying "back when Tito and Epstein were around" but there you go - Pedroia's first couple of months in a big league gig were simply awful. But the team stood by its evaluation of the player and the manager kept putting him out there. You can't have it both ways - play the kids and then penalize them for being kids.

[iortiz]

Disagree on Bard - he was excellent for most of the season as a setup guy. Yes, it makes sense to try every pitcher as a starter before ruling it out, that was something that had to be (and was) done on the way up.

 

And of course how you handle prospects has to do with the kid too. Betts demolished every level before coming up - you couldn't keep him down. Bogaerts too sailed through levels legitimately. Last year was rough, but everything about Bogaerts' past says he will figure all of this out.

 

Bradley basically got a look in 2013 on the back of a handful of spring training ABs. (and Drew's injury granted) That is silly. He LOST his CF gig on the back of Grady Sizemore's handful of spring training ABs. That was sillier. With Middlebrooks, they reacted to a hot few weeks while Youk was hurt. If anything, the org's recent issues with prospects has been dithering with them when they don't deliver orgasmic levels of joyous performance at once.

 

I hate saying "back when Tito and Epstein were around" but there you go - Pedroia's first couple of months in a big league gig were simply awful. But the team stood by its evaluation of the player and the manager kept putting him out there. You can't have it both ways - play the kids and then penalize them for being kids.

I meant another prospect that didn't work out for whatever reason. Kalish another one, and the list is probably endless.

 

Make the MLB at decent level for at least say 5 years is tough.

Edited January 29, 2015 by iortiz

[User Name]

Another prospect that did not work out.

 

Probably for each 1 consolidated prospect out there are 20 high rated prospects, reason why FAs are usually better bets.

 

Except that they aren't, because the results of a bad FA contract are usually disastrous, unlike a prospect that can just be cut or traded. There's an argument to be made for both sides.

[User Name]

Disagree on Bard - he was excellent for most of the season as a setup guy. Yes, it makes sense to try every pitcher as a starter before ruling it out, that was something that had to be (and was) done on the way up.

 

And of course how you handle prospects has to do with the kid too. Betts demolished every level before coming up - you couldn't keep him down. Bogaerts too sailed through levels legitimately. Last year was rough, but everything about Bogaerts' past says he will figure all of this out.

 

Bradley basically got a look in 2013 on the back of a handful of spring training ABs. (and Drew's injury granted) That is silly. He LOST his CF gig on the back of Grady Sizemore's handful of spring training ABs. That was sillier. With Middlebrooks, they reacted to a hot few weeks while Youk was hurt. If anything, the org's recent issues with prospects has been dithering with them when they don't deliver orgasmic levels of joyous performance at once.

 

I hate saying "back when Tito and Epstein were around" but there you go - Pedroia's first couple of months in a big league gig were simply awful. But the team stood by its evaluation of the player and the manager kept putting him out there. You can't have it both ways - play the kids and then penalize them for being kids.

 

Now this is a good analysis. Well put.

[iortiz]

Except that they aren't, because the results of a bad FA contract are usually disastrous, unlike a prospect that can just be cut or traded. There's an argument to be made for both sides.

 

Not all FAs are attached to high/long contracts. Actually only a few command high/long contracts.

[Palodios]

The Red Sox have had impressively bad luck with prospects over the last 5 years. I am looking at Baseball America's top 100 from 2008-2012 for the Red Sox, and the list is pretty awful. I'm looking at ten duds, and only one or two successful players.

 

It is a complete crapshoot, unless you trade a prospect -- that basically guarantees that they will be a superstar.

[iortiz]

The Red Sox have had impressively bad luck with prospects over the last 5 years. I am looking at Baseball America's top 100 from 2008-2012 for the Red Sox, and the list is pretty awful. I'm looking at ten duds, and only one or two successful players.

 

It is a complete crapshoot, unless you trade a prospect -- that basically guarantees that they will be a superstar.

... And probably is not that different in the majority of the teams. I think that even play only 1 game in the majors is a loooooooong shot.

[Spudboy]

Not all FAs are attached to high/long contracts. Actually only a few command high/long contracts.

 

Ugh!!!!!

[User Name]

Not all FAs are attached to high/long contracts. Actually only a few command high/long contracts.

 

The ones who don't aren't even worth mentioning, save some notable exceptions like Koji and Cruz last year.

[iortiz]

The ones who don't aren't even worth mentioning, save some notable exceptions like Koji and Cruz last year.

 

Thing is that you just can not have a 9 all-star lineup and 5 cy young rotation,

and those "nobodys" sometimes round very well a team while you give some AB/innings to your prospects.

 

The mix is the prudent way to go.

[sk7326]

Free Agent contracts are almost always net negatives. This is because most ballplayers don't get to FA until most of their expected peak is done. There is also the winner's curse - the game theory phemonenon - where the winning team will overpay in order to win the auction. You are (especially with premium guys) paying for non-peak years.

 

But that's ok - doesn't mean you don't do it. But homegrown guys are the lifeblood and your best source for getting superstars while they are being superstars. Free agency is good to address very specific needs.

 

The prospect hit rate recently has looked worse than it is - only because the expectations are always through the roof, and there flat out not the number of job openings as there are in Tampa for instance.

[Kimmi]

As of now it looks as though the Sox "Won" that trade because they still have their acquired piece and he is very valuable being a projected mid-top of the rotation starter.

 

But when the trade was made it was exactly what Baltimore should have done. Secure an asset that would increase the chances of post season success.

 

 

Absolutely. Baltimore had a good shot, and they went for it. You can't fault them for that.

[Kimmi]

Thing is that you just can not have a 9 all-star lineup and 5 cy young rotation,

and those "nobodys" sometimes round very well a team while you give some AB/innings to your prospects.

 

The mix is the prudent way to go.

 

 

The mix is the prudent way to go, but with the foundation being the farm system, filling in the holes through free agency and trade. Not the other way around. Having a strong farm is what opens the door to being able to do the other things well.

[Kimmi]

Free Agent contracts are almost always net negatives. This is because most ballplayers don't get to FA until most of their expected peak is done. There is also the winner's curse - the game theory phemonenon - where the winning team will overpay in order to win the auction. You are (especially with premium guys) paying for non-peak years.

 

But that's ok - doesn't mean you don't do it. But homegrown guys are the lifeblood and your best source for getting superstars while they are being superstars. Free agency is good to address very specific needs.

 

The prospect hit rate recently has looked worse than it is - only because the expectations are always through the roof, and there flat out not the number of job openings as there are in Tampa for instance.

 

 

SK, I haven't had the opportunity to read much of your stuff, but I have very much enjoyed your posts from today.

[iortiz]

The mix is the prudent way to go, but with the foundation being the farm system, filling in the holes through free agency and trade. Not the other way around. Having a strong farm is what opens the door to being able to do the other things well.

Sure but even with strong farm systems rich teams always will command the league in the long run.

Also as Pal said, our farm system has not been good in recent years. Hopefully and at least Betts and XB become realities for us.

[Palodios]

Chad Billingsley to Philly for 1.5 million. Man, that one feels like a miss -- he seemed like excellent depth.

[Ogden]

Not all FAs are attached to high/long contracts. Actually only a few command high/long contracts.

 

 

Just be glad the Sox GM isn't Cashman who will add an extra year or two to the bidding just for the heck of it.

[Bellhorn04]

Just be glad the Sox GM isn't Cashman who will add an extra year or two to the bidding just for the heck of it.

 

Welcome aboard, Ogden. I like your avatar. Freddie was one of my favorites. There were not many guys who made baseball look easier than he did when he was in top form.