2014 Offseason Thread

[BSN07]

David Price.. next off season.

[Bellhorn04]

You are Ben Cherington. You have been given the green light to sign one top of the line free agent starting pitcher.

 

Who do you sign?

 

There are only 2 to choose from. It has to be Shields. Scherzer's contract is guaranteed to be very stupid.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your rotation as constructed will have you solidly behind us in the AL East, and we are likely solidly behind Baltimore and Toronto (as it stands now). Without a true front line starter, you're still down in the dumps. That being said, I think the market for starters next yr is ridiculous and waiting one year after losing Lester isn't a terrible strategy. It just likely means you'll have another s*** season this yr

[User Name]

With all of those dinosaurs on offense? No one is solidly behind you.

[BSN07]

I would argue there is no true #1 in the whole division.

[pruneface]

I think Shields is going to get a crazy stupid contract possibly from the Giants, Jays or Dodgers.

 

 

Why the Red Sox won't trade Mookie Betts

 

By David Schoenfield | ESPN.com

 

 

Phillies fans seem to think they can get Mookie Betts in a potential trade with the Red Sox for Cole Hamels.

 

It's not going to happen. Dave Cameron has been beating this drum over at FanGraphs and I agree. First off, Betts is going to be a really good. The Steamer projection system has him hitting .291/.368/.444 in 2015, worth 2.5 WAR in just 89games. Prorate that 140 games and you get 3.9 WAR. The "Bill James Handbook" is even more optimistic, projecting Betts to hit .321/.405/.493. It's possible that Betts could be as valuable as Hamels in 2015, and that's before even factoring in the salaries.

 

But there's another more practical reason why the Red Sox can't trade him: While they have a lot of outfielders, they have a lot of outfielders with question marks. Consider:

 

--Hanley Ramirez. Who knows how the transition to left field will actually work; as I've written, it's almost unprecedented for a shortstop at Ramirez's age to transition into a full-time outfielder and have a second half of his career there (Robin Yount did it, but he's the exception). It's possible he'll be just as bad defensively in the outfield as he is at shortstop. Plus he's injury-prone. It's highly likely that in 2016, Ramirez or Pablo Sandoval will be playing first base or Ramirez eventually succeeds David Ortiz as the DH.

 

 

--Rusney Castillo. He could be good. He could be mediocre. He could be less than mediocre. There's no guarantee he's a long-term starter in center field.

 

--Jackie Bradley Jr. Gold Glove-quality center fielder but huge questions at this point about his bat.

 

--Shane Victorino. Old and broken. Only signed for one more year as is.

 

--Allen Craig. Not sure what happened to him. Even if the bat bounces back, he's best suited for first base anyway.

 

--Daniel Nava. Solid, underrated performer but turns 32 in February.

 

The Red Sox will keep Mookie Betts because he's going to be an All-Star but they also need to keep him because they'll need him in the outfield.

[MJantomaso]

I would argue there is no true #1 in the whole division.

 

Alex Cobb?

[Palodios]

Alex Cobb?

 

Lester spent years trying to get the #1 title, and somehow a guy who has a career 118 ERA+ and has never broken 160 innings gets the title from all of baseball. Cobb is a #2/3 at best.

[BSN07]

Once you stop and think about it, it is rather striking that there isn't a sure fire #1 in the ALE. And you don't see anyone mentioning anywhere in the media either. It's all "the Sox lack a #1" when really the same can be said about the all division teams.

[jacksonianmarch]

I would argue there is no true #1 in the whole division.

 

Pineda and Tanaka are 1's in production....assuming good health. But I see your point. A 1 is more than just production, it's dependability. And we definitely cannot lean on either guy as dependable due to injury concerns

[a700hitter]

“We’ve been able to acquire the three starters that we have this week while still maintaining really what we consider the top end of our young pitching,” says Cherington, adding that the Red Sox “still have what we think is really good young pitching depth besides the five guys that will likely open the season in the rotation.”

Ben is usually true to his word. That has been my observation. I am not expecting anything. Hopefully, he works a trade, because I think the rotation is very unimpressive. Maybe he trades Kelly and XB for Hamels. The Phillies need a SS.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the sox want to have a TB like run of excellence with the capability to add high payout players as well. Dealing Bogaerts goes away from that significantly. A franchise level SS who has light tower power should not be dealt at all. I think the sox have what it takes to get Hamels, I just question the financial commitment it would take to have him on your roster and what the sox were unwilling to do with Jon Lester. Think about it...

 

Lester got a $155 mil guarantee. Hamels would require his vesting option be picked up. That's a $114 mil guarantee. Are Bogaerts, Owens, and Betts worth $41 mil to the sox? I would assume so. Dealing one of those guys or multiple of those guys to get Hamels is penny wise and pound foolish.

[sk7326]

Your rotation as constructed will have you solidly behind us in the AL East, and we are likely solidly behind Baltimore and Toronto (as it stands now). Without a true front line starter, you're still down in the dumps. That being said, I think the market for starters next yr is ridiculous and waiting one year after losing Lester isn't a terrible strategy. It just likely means you'll have another s*** season this yr

 

The last two years, the preseason gap between 1st and 5th has been very small - that is still largely the case. Now I feel less confident about 2015 than 2013 because 2013 required FAR less uncertain stuff to go right. (I've highlighted how little their best players actually played in 2012) Now we are counting on Ramirez to be an effective LF, Masterson to rebuild himself into a solid starter and Porcello making a leap which scouting sorts saw in him. That's a lot of IFs, And that does not include stuff which I am confident in that is not set in stone (Bogaerts and Betts making jumps). That said, last year had a ton of "left side of the bell curve" outcomes for guys without any real obvious cause (like age). One thing about the Ramirez and Sandoval signings which critics overlook is that - THEY DON'T EVEN HAVE TO BE THAT GOOD. Now it'd be nice if they were awesome - that's a lot of money - but the Red Sox production at those two positions (3B in particular) were so woeful that Sandoval, by just being a living, breathing decent third baseman is probably 4 wins right there.

 

What I would observe is that the Yanks have much much less upside than the Celtics - negative run differentials the last two years without much actual youth besides Betances and Tanaka to address things.

[cp176]

Interesting article. I too would hope that Betts is untouchable. Trying to figure out the recent spate of infatuation with Rusney Castillo and Hanley Ramirez befuddles me. i don't get it but whatever right. On a more POSITIVE note though, I like a bounce back year out of Victorino. I hope that Ramirez adapts to left and shuts his mouth. I hope that Castillo becomes the player, that based on something, people think he can become. It could be exciting to see. Can't wait for it to start.

[jacksonianmarch]

The last two years, the preseason gap between 1st and 5th has been very small - that is still largely the case. Now I feel less confident about 2015 than 2013 because 2013 required FAR less uncertain stuff to go right. (I've highlighted how little their best players actually played in 2012) Now we are counting on Ramirez to be an effective LF, Masterson to rebuild himself into a solid starter and Porcello making a leap which scouting sorts saw in him. That's a lot of IFs, And that does not include stuff which I am confident in that is not set in stone (Bogaerts and Betts making jumps). That said, last year had a ton of "left side of the bell curve" outcomes for guys without any real obvious cause (like age). One thing about the Ramirez and Sandoval signings which critics overlook is that - THEY DON'T EVEN HAVE TO BE THAT GOOD. Now it'd be nice if they were awesome - that's a lot of money - but the Red Sox production at those two positions (3B in particular) were so woeful that Sandoval, by just being a living, breathing decent third baseman is probably 4 wins right there.

 

What I would observe is that the Yanks have much much less upside than the Celtics - negative run differentials the last two years without much actual youth besides Betances and Tanaka to address things.

 

The sox did have some left side of the bell curve production, but don't forget, you haven't gotten better since the beginning of 2013. Your rotation went from have a true 1-2-3 to having maybe a 2 and a bunch of s***. This isn't 2013 where the sox had a lot of underachieving talent. This is a team that underachieved a bit in its own right last yr, but just lacked the overall talent to compete then dealt away their best three starters and to this point haven't replaced them with much.

 

For NY, I think you might be a little revisionist. We have McCann, Ellsbury, and Gardner, all guys who are in their primes who had down seasons. Jeter is gone, and the 2014 Jeter was one of the worst players in baseball. We replace him with a top prospect who at the very least should have a solid glove. We do have some youth coming through the pipe and we dealt for Prado who is in his prime. We got nothing out of Teixeira and Beltran, two dinosaurs who might still give us nothing next yr or might rebound, but counting on them isn't prudent. Our rotation was decimated with injury, so if you are looking for "left of the bell curve" production, let's look there. Tanaka is said to be completely healthy, which is something I will believe when I see it, but if so, a healthy Tanaka for all 162 last yr gets us into the post season. Same can be said for Pineda. Let's also not forget that for as rough as the Yankee season was, we still finished 13 games ahead of you and were 8 games ahead when you imploded your team.

[sk7326]

Interesting article. I too would hope that Betts is untouchable. Trying to figure out the recent spate of infatuation with Rusney Castillo and Hanley Ramirez befuddles me. i don't get it but whatever right. On a more POSITIVE note though, I like a bounce back year out of Victorino. I hope that Ramirez adapts to left and shuts his mouth. I hope that Castillo becomes the player, that based on something, people think he can become. It could be exciting to see. Can't wait for it to start.

 

Castillo is largely an unknown set of tools - his AFL tour proved little (all it could have proved is that he is way over his head). Ramirez' reputation spawns from stuff many years old. He was terrific for the Dodgers. He asked to move off of SS this time around because he wants to preserve his body (when in the past others asked him to leave because he was bad at it), so I don't expect him to balk at the arrangement. He came back to the Sox due to previous relationships in part - so this should be ok. There are some ifs - the natural aging curve as well as whether playing LF indeed allows him to 1) improve his defensive value which is negative as a SS, and 2) the less demanding position helps him physically. I am positive on the ifs given that he is a good athlete who has a good approach at the plate.

[mvp 78]

He only played 8 games in the AFL. Tough to glean much from that.

[Bellhorn04]

We have McCann, Ellsbury, and Gardner, all guys who are in their primes who had down seasons.

 

Sorry to break this to you, but Ellsbury and Gardner did not have down seasons. Both of them had a 2014 OPS+ that was higher than their career OPS+.

[User Name]

The sox did have some left side of the bell curve production, but don't forget, you haven't gotten better since the beginning of 2013. Your rotation went from have a true 1-2-3 to having maybe a 2 and a bunch of s***. This isn't 2013 where the sox had a lot of underachieving talent. This is a team that underachieved a bit in its own right last yr, but just lacked the overall talent to compete then dealt away their best three starters and to this point haven't replaced them with much.

 

For NY, I think you might be a little revisionist. We have McCann, Ellsbury, and Gardner, all guys who are in their primes who had down seasons. Jeter is gone, and the 2014 Jeter was one of the worst players in baseball. We replace him with a top prospect who at the very least should have a solid glove. We do have some youth coming through the pipe and we dealt for Prado who is in his prime. We got nothing out of Teixeira and Beltran, two dinosaurs who might still give us nothing next yr or might rebound, but counting on them isn't prudent. Our rotation was decimated with injury, so if you are looking for "left of the bell curve" production, let's look there. Tanaka is said to be completely healthy, which is something I will believe when I see it, but if so, a healthy Tanaka for all 162 last yr gets us into the post season. Same can be said for Pineda. Let's also not forget that for as rough as the Yankee season was, we still finished 13 games ahead of you and were 8 games ahead when you imploded your team.

 

So your prime guys who had bad seasons are primed to rebound, but our new pitchers and guys who had down seasons are not primed to rebound. I think the chart needs to come back.

[sk7326]

The sox did have some left side of the bell curve production, but don't forget, you haven't gotten better since the beginning of 2013. Your rotation went from have a true 1-2-3 to having maybe a 2 and a bunch of s***. This isn't 2013 where the sox had a lot of underachieving talent. This is a team that underachieved a bit in its own right last yr, but just lacked the overall talent to compete then dealt away their best three starters and to this point haven't replaced them with much.

 

For NY, I think you might be a little revisionist. We have McCann, Ellsbury, and Gardner, all guys who are in their primes who had down seasons. Jeter is gone, and the 2014 Jeter was one of the worst players in baseball. We replace him with a top prospect who at the very least should have a solid glove. We do have some youth coming through the pipe and we dealt for Prado who is in his prime. We got nothing out of Teixeira and Beltran, two dinosaurs who might still give us nothing next yr or might rebound, but counting on them isn't prudent. Our rotation was decimated with injury, so if you are looking for "left of the bell curve" production, let's look there. Tanaka is said to be completely healthy, which is something I will believe when I see it, but if so, a healthy Tanaka for all 162 last yr gets us into the post season. Same can be said for Pineda. Let's also not forget that for as rough as the Yankee season was, we still finished 13 games ahead of you and were 8 games ahead when you imploded your team.

 

Not that much - the Yankees were a negative run differential team in 2013 too ... and made a bunch of moves which improved them on paper, but quite little for the money when the Cano stuff was factored in. I am not denying the Red Sox struggles - I am talking about relative upsides. The Red Sox have a wider range of outcomes, but a far higher ceiling.

[sk7326]

He only played 8 games in the AFL. Tough to glean much from that.

 

Agree - I would say a BAD performance in the AFL would say more than a good one. The former says you can't hack it.

[lospunchados]

The sox did have some left side of the bell curve production, but don't forget, you haven't gotten better since the beginning of 2013. Your rotation went from have a true 1-2-3 to having maybe a 2 and a bunch of s***. This isn't 2013 where the sox had a lot of underachieving talent. This is a team that underachieved a bit in its own right last yr, but just lacked the overall talent to compete then dealt away their best three starters and to this point haven't replaced them with much.

 

For NY, I think you might be a little revisionist. We have McCann, Ellsbury, and Gardner, all guys who are in their primes who had down seasons. Jeter is gone, and the 2014 Jeter was one of the worst players in baseball. We replace him with a top prospect who at the very least should have a solid glove. We do have some youth coming through the pipe and we dealt for Prado who is in his prime. We got nothing out of Teixeira and Beltran, two dinosaurs who might still give us nothing next yr or might rebound, but counting on them isn't prudent. Our rotation was decimated with injury, so if you are looking for "left of the bell curve" production, let's look there. Tanaka is said to be completely healthy, which is something I will believe when I see it, but if so, a healthy Tanaka for all 162 last yr gets us into the post season. Same can be said for Pineda. Let's also not forget that for as rough as the Yankee season was, we still finished 13 games ahead of you and were 8 games ahead when you imploded your team.

 

Are you saying at the beginning of 2013 we had a legitimate rotation 1-2-3?

[dupree]

Reports say that the Marlins and Brewers are talking about trading for Allen Craig.

 

I like the idea of holding onto him if Napoli isn't fully healthy after surgery and as back up if Hanley gets hurt we have a log jam of players but not a lot with power in the OF if Hanley goes down... JBJ no power, Nava he'll hit maybe 10 per year, Vic may hit 10, Castillo is a unknown he has to prove he can hit for power, Betts no power if he hits 5 hr this year I'd be suprised. Craig would be a nice younger version of Johnny Gomes for us I'm hoping.

[vjcsmoke]

I was just about to post about the same thing:

http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/12/8/7353377/red-sox-allen-craig-trade-rumors-brewers

 

There is a market for Craig if we are looking to unload an OF/1B. He does not make that much relatively speaking at 6m per season, so it doesn't really hurt us if we keep him. However if we can use him as part of a package to get something useful, it behooves us to explore those options. Maybe another BP arm could help us. We resigned Uehara but how are we bridging that 7th/8th inning gap to get to him in a closing situation?

 

Not to mention the bright pink elephant in the roam that is our lack of #1 pitcher. Who could we aquire on the trade market besides Cole Hamels. Is Cueto obtainable??

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/12/9/7364315/reds-trade-rumors-johnny-cueto-aroldis-chapman

 

Reports say that the Marlins and Brewers are talking about trading for Allen Craig.

 

I like the idea of holding onto him if Napoli isn't fully healthy after surgery and as back up if Hanley gets hurt we have a log jam of players but not a lot with power in the OF if Hanley goes down... JBJ no power, Nava he'll hit maybe 10 per year, Vic may hit 10, Castillo is a unknown he has to prove he can hit for power, Betts no power if he hits 5 hr this year I'd be suprised. Craig would be a nice younger version of Johnny Gomes for us I'm hoping.

[MJantomaso]

Lester spent years trying to get the #1 title, and somehow a guy who has a career 118 ERA+ and has never broken 160 innings gets the title from all of baseball. Cobb is a #2/3 at best.

 

He did take a line drive to the face. Im sure he would have surpassed 160 innings had that not happened. If Cobb is a 3, idk what that makes any of our starters.

[iortiz]

Reports say that the Marlins and Brewers are talking about trading for Allen Craig.

 

I like the idea of holding onto him if Napoli isn't fully healthy after surgery and as back up if Hanley gets hurt we have a log jam of players but not a lot with power in the OF if Hanley goes down... JBJ no power, Nava he'll hit maybe 10 per year, Vic may hit 10, Castillo is a unknown he has to prove he can hit for power, Betts no power if he hits 5 hr this year I'd be suprised. Craig would be a nice younger version of Johnny Gomes for us I'm hoping.

 

Would you trade Craig+ for Gallardo or Lohse?

[MJantomaso]

Reports say that the Marlins and Brewers are talking about trading for Allen Craig.

 

I like the idea of holding onto him if Napoli isn't fully healthy after surgery and as back up if Hanley gets hurt we have a log jam of players but not a lot with power in the OF if Hanley goes down... JBJ no power, Nava he'll hit maybe 10 per year, Vic may hit 10, Castillo is a unknown he has to prove he can hit for power, Betts no power if he hits 5 hr this year I'd be suprised. Craig would be a nice younger version of Johnny Gomes for us I'm hoping.

 

ummm. He hit 5 in 50 games this year...soo you shouldn't be too surprised.

[dupree]

Would you trade Craig+ for Gallardo or Lohse?

Id rather keep Craig IMO. Never been a Lohse fan.

 

I still see a starting pitcher being added before spring training to be the ace. If Shields price gets too high and Hamels asking price is too much I could see Ben making a trade for a top of the rotation guy that no one thought was available.

 

I also hope Sergio Romo can be added to bridge to Koji or if he sucks can become the closer or set up Mujica. I'm just not sure what Romo's asking price is. And I have seen that teams have inquired but I have seen a years and dollars ballpark guess. Anyone seen anything?

[iortiz]

Id rather keep Craig IMO. Never been a Lohse fan.

 

I still see a starting pitcher being added before spring training to be the ace. If Shields price gets too high and Hamels asking price is too much I could see Ben making a trade for a top of the rotation guy that no one thought was available.

 

I also hope Sergio Romo can be added to bridge to Koji or if he sucks can become the closer or set up Mujica. I'm just not sure what Romo's asking price is. And I have seen that teams have inquired but I have seen a years and dollars ballpark guess. Anyone seen anything?

 

I'd trade Craig + for Gallardo. Lohse? Probably. Thing is, I don't see MIL trading Gallardo, he is their #1.

[mvp 78]

@OverTheMonster: Red Sox, Nationals have talked Jordan Zimmermann trade

 

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