2014 Offseason Thread

[mvp 78]

I don't buy it. Not one bit.

 

They offered less than $100M last year. He'll sign for $150+. A competitive offer of 6/120ish would have most likely got the deal done last year.

 

4/70 is a garbage offer.

Edited December 5, 2014 by mvp 78

[User Name]

They offered less than $100M last year. He'll sign for $150+. A competitive offer of 6/120ish would have most likely got the deal done last year.

 

4/70 is a garbage offer.

 

I'm not saying it wasn't a stupid offer. I'm saying i don't buy the fact Lester would have signed for 120 knowing full well he would've gotten way more in the open market. Why would he take a 20 million paycut just to stay with the Sox? Let's be realistic here.

[mvp 78]

I'm not saying it wasn't a stupid offer. I'm saying i don't buy the fact Lester would have signed for 120 knowing full well he would've gotten way more in the open market. Why would he take a 20 million paycut just to stay with the Sox? Let's be realistic here.

 

You wanted to bet money that he'd sign with the Sox at 6/120 a few weeks ago. Now you are saying he wouldn't have signed for that last year. Did he lose value over the last 12 months?

[BSN07]

Crazy question: is there any way for a Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee deal to work for the Sox? Would the Sox necessarily get screwed over? Is there some way they could benefit by being willing to take some of his salary?

 

Yes, Lee is coming off of an injury. And he's older and very expensive. However, as recently as 2013 he threw 222 IP with a 1.010 WHIP and 222 Ks. That was similar to his last few years. Would I rather have James Shields for 4 years or Cliff Lee for his final 2? If it made it easier to get Hamels or if he cost few prospects would anyone take a shot to get him?

 

Normally I would say yes but with Ruin Tomorrow jr ridiculous asking prices I can't see him giving a discount. He might pay one of their salaries for a year but he's still gonna want a ton of prospects. Until he proves me wrong I don't think he ends up trading anyone until maybe the TDL.

 

Lee is also a big risk imo. No one is gonna give anything good for him until they see him pitch next season.

 

My first non Lester choice is trying to get something done with Detroit(If the rumors are true they are shopping SP). Cespedes for Porcell or Cespedes+ for Price would be what I think would get it done. The + for Price really depends on what Detroit wants. They aren't getting Betts, Bogaerts or Swihart and probably not Owens. But it could be one maybe 2 of Ranaudo/Workman/Webster/Johnson/Bradley/Kopech/Escobar.

 

It's not a long term move but next season FA SP market looks a deeper then this year.

[iortiz]

They offered less than $100M last year. He'll sign for $150+. A competitive offer of 6/120ish would have most likely got the deal done last year.

 

4/70 is a garbage offer.

This is exactly what I was thinking. JH will regret either way if he signs somewhere else or ends up paying 150+ M.

 

Plus, they need another solid arm.

[User Name]

You wanted to bet money that he'd sign with the Sox at 6/120 a few weeks ago. Now you are saying he wouldn't have signed for that last year. Did he lose value over the last 12 months?

 

Yeah, because at the time the general consensus was that Lester was definitely willing to give the Red Sox a hometown discount, but it sure as hell doesn't seem like earning top dollar wasn't his intention all along. Or did he change his mind? I just don't buy it. He didn't make the Red Sox a "give me this amount and i'll sign" offer either. Occam's razor is the likely answer here: Top money.

 

Let me make the side-note here that this isn't a condemnation of Lester on my part. He has every right to look for top dollar, as does every other free agent, and shouldn't be criticized for it.

[Bellhorn04]

Big Papi has been making a lot of Lester-related comments recently, all hoping he comes back, of course, but one of the comments was that Lester was 'devastated' about being traded.

[Spudboy]

Big Papi has been making a lot of Lester-related comments recently, all hoping he comes back, of course, but one of the comments was that Lester was 'devastated' about being traded.

 

It sure looked as though he was lost when he was put on show at the A's presser. So I doubt that Ortiz is off here.

 

I would like to think that Lester is not one that would now thumb his nose at the Sox only because he did not want to be traded. Even the stupid 4/70 offer he should ignore.

 

It's hard not to let sentiment enter ones thoughts when discussing Lester. But business is business. The Sox had some plan when they dumped the pitching staff. We have only seen part of that plan to date. What they do this off season and next off season when there will be many more good arms available in FA will likely reveal what their intentions have been.

 

For the record, I do not see Lester being comfortable in Los Angeles. Just my hunch. Of course if the Dodgers offer blows the Sox out of the water he will probably sign there.

 

I still think this whole matter comes down to the Cubs, Sox, and Yankees.

[Station 13]

Anyone beside me found it odd Lester took out an ad in the paper after his trade? What players do that?

[Palodios]

Anyone beside me found it odd Lester took out an ad in the paper after his trade? What players do that?

 

Players frequently put ads in the paper after signing elsewhere. I can't remember of players to do it after trades, but the Red Sox haven't traded many franchise players lately, besides Beckett, Manny, and Nomar.

[mvp 78]

This is exactly what I was thinking. JH will regret either way if he signs somewhere else or ends up paying 150+ M.

 

Plus, they need another solid arm.

 

I think the Sox should pay whatever it takes to get the best pitchers available. It has worked for the Giants.

[Palodios]

I think the Sox should pay whatever it takes to get the best pitchers available. It has worked for the Giants.

 

The Giant strategy has been to resign all of their own guys for whatever those guys ask for. It has worked so far, but considering Matt Cain wasn't even pitching during their World Series run, I'd imagine most of their success has come from drafting elite pitching year after year.

[Station 13]

Players frequently put ads in the paper after signing elsewhere. I can't remember of players to do it after trades, but the Red Sox haven't traded many franchise players lately, besides Beckett, Manny, and Nomar.

 

Yeah, I have seen ads for guys who departs as free agents, but never for trades. He was heading off for a few months as a rental, so an ad seems very weird.

 

I hope we get him back.

[jad]

At the very bottom of baseballreference.com, they have a salary app with inflation adjustment. Just for kicks, this is what Babe Ruth would have earned in his highest salary year in 2014 (1933): $1,457,481

 

Contrast ARod: he would have made over 2 million in 1930 for his 2013 season. Babe Ruth made 80000 in 1933. So inflation can't account for this meteoric rise. Insanity can.

 

Well, not insanity at all, but greater sources of revenue. Plus the fact that players are no longer 'property' of their supposed owners.

[seabeachfred]

I'm normally one of cooler heads, but if Lester does sign somewhere else regardless of how we fill out the rotation, I will have a raging tirade that will make Fred look like he's the calmest person you've ever met.

 

RSNC84--please take my advice on this. If you are a cool person who doesn't go ballistic at Red Sox bunglings, keep your sanity and let the other madmen go on the tirades when this goes down......as I'm certain it will. I commend you for at least admitting you're not a ranter and a raver as I and some others are, and it is a refreshing change of pace from those who always say they will let the front office have it both barrels if they screw up and then when they do fall in line and try to meekly support what the FOU does like the gutless people they are. There are enough people here to carry on the fight, but I've decided to wait until the new year to see just what our team looks like before I get emotional. Who knows? The front office might actually come out of this smelling pretty good even if they blow it on Lester, which IMHO they have already done.

[seabeachfred]

Here is all we know about the Red Sox initial negotiations with Lester: they made him an offer of 4 years for $70 million.

 

On April 17, 2014, Red Sox COO Sam Kennedy said the following on the Dennis & Callahan show:

 

“You have to remember, we’re starting from a place where the Red Sox, from John Henry on down to Jon Lester, want to make a deal. That’s the starting place. I think everybody feels good about that,” Kennedy said. “The problem with negotiations and details from baseball negotiations getting into the public domain when you have a leak like we did this past week related to this deal is one data point gets into the media, gets out there, gets dissected. I can tell you there are lots of other data points related to this negotiation that are not in the public spotlight, in the media. All I’ll say is that Ben Cherington, Jon Lester, Larry Lucchino, our ownership group will continue to work on this. And it’s clearly best when baseball discussions are kept private, and then baseball decisions are made public. That’s been our philosophy.

“Do we want to see Jon Lester in a Red Sox uniform for a long, long time? Absolutely, yes. As a fan, I hope that he is with us for a long, long time. We’ll see where things go over the coming weeks and months. But I’m hopeful that we do end up getting something done there.”

 

I'm keeping my powder dry for the time being Bellhorn, but honestly, have you ever a bigger bunch of worthless BS that what was dispensed by Kennedy with that broadside?

[seabeachfred]

You wanted to bet money that he'd sign with the Sox at 6/120 a few weeks ago. Now you are saying he wouldn't have signed for that last year. Did he lose value over the last 12 months?

 

No mvp, he is just trying to get out from under the possibility that he would have to knock the front office.....so he is now backtracking like in a drunken stupor so he can carry the water and hew the wood for the powers-that-be. That's his reputation and he is just living up to it. You want more proof, just keep reading what he writes the next month or so.

[User Name]

Goddamn you're an annoying idiot.

[User Name]

I don't understand why it's such an impossibility to think the Sox may be able to assemble a good pitching staff without Lester? Even though selective-readingfred claims otherwise, i've known and made it clear that the initial 4/70 was a dumb move by the Sox FO (if they actually planned to retain him). The only difference in my argument is that after further consideration i don't think they had a slam-dunk shot at signing him below market value in ST. Market value (which would have been around Greinke money) probably gets it done, but they were nowhere even in the ballpark.

 

However, i'm taking the wait-and-see approach just because it's stupid (and i'm looking straight at you Fred) to whine like a litte bitch about an offseason that's pretty much just beginning. I hated the Panda signing. I made that clear, but i'm not giving out screams of anguish or claiming success until i see the finished product. Grow up Fred. Get off my nuts so we can coexist in peace.

[dupree]

It's nice to see the red sox offered Miller 4 years. But it pisses me off to no end when we get out bid by the f***ing Yankees.

[jacksonianmarch]

I can absolutely understand people who are worried about the sox rotation. Currently, your rotation looks awful. Buchholz was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball last season. Joe Kelly looked like a swing man and walks the park. And neither of the above two pitchers are exactly known as iron men. If Clay and Kelly were 4 and 5 of your rotation, you could live with it. They aren't. You need a 1, a 2, and a 3 in the same offseason. That is hard to find

[Bellhorn04]

I can absolutely understand people who are worried about the sox rotation. Currently, your rotation looks awful. Buchholz was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball last season. Joe Kelly looked like a swing man and walks the park. And neither of the above two pitchers are exactly known as iron men. If Clay and Kelly were 4 and 5 of your rotation, you could live with it. They aren't. You need a 1, a 2, and a 3 in the same offseason. That is hard to find

 

Regardless of what moves they make, we also need one or two of the starter prospects to develop. We've built up a big enough pile of them.

[example1]

I can absolutely understand people who are worried about the sox rotation. Currently, your rotation looks awful. Buchholz was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball last season. Joe Kelly looked like a swing man and walks the park. And neither of the above two pitchers are exactly known as iron men. If Clay and Kelly were 4 and 5 of your rotation, you could live with it. They aren't. You need a 1, a 2, and a 3 in the same offseason. That is hard to find

 

Anybody can understand why they'd be worried as the Sox don't currently have a rotation. People should only be worried if they think the Sox are unaware of this or have their hands tied for some reason. I don't think they do. They will get some pitchers, they will be competitive next year. Relax. You, of all people, know that invasive surgery shouldn't be evaluated while the body is still cut open.

[jacksonianmarch]

When Jon Lester was dealt, you were 12 games under .500 and 13 games back of the Orioles. Since that time...

 

You have gained:

Yoenis Cespedes

Hanley Ramirez

Pablo Sandoval

Allan Craig

Joe Kelly

 

You have lost:

Jake Peavy

Jon Lester

John Lackey

Andrew Miller

 

On a team that had given up the most runs in the AL East at last season's deadline and scored the least, you have added some serious offensive firepower and dropped some serious arms. It's not like you had a surplus that you dealt from to even things out. Your rotation is a disaster. You need to replace and improve upon Lester, Lackey and Peavy in the rotation and Miller in the pen. It cannot be done in one offseason. You need some kids to develop and some big fish to bite.

[Bellhorn04]

Anybody can understand why they'd be worried as the Sox don't currently have a rotation. People should only be worried if they think the Sox are unaware of this or have their hands tied for some reason. I don't think they do. They will get some pitchers, they will be competitive next year. Relax. You, of all people, know that invasive surgery shouldn't be evaluated while the body is still cut open.

 

My concern is that they get boxed into a position where they make moves they shouldn't make, like trading too much to get Hamels.

 

Once Lester and Scherzer are off the board (assuming they're not ours) Ben has to pull a few rabbits out of the hat.

[example1]

Regardless of what moves they make, we also need one or two of the starter prospects to develop. We've built up a big enough pile of them.

 

Yep. I bet the Sox FO is aware of a number of good pitchers who are available for the right hard-to-part-with pieces. Who couldn't they get for a package of some combination of Owens, Rodriguez, De La Rosa, Betts and Swihart? They'd never offer that much, but the point stands.

 

I think this fact is exactly why the Sox would feel comfortable setting a limit on their offer to Lester. Everyone has an actual value, which means that at some point not paying the money ends up being the better choice. If they have few options they will go higher.

[Bellhorn04]

The Phillies are obstinate f***s. They haven't even traded Cliff Lee yet.

[Spudboy]

When Jon Lester was dealt, you were 12 games under .500 and 13 games back of the Orioles. Since that time...

 

You have gained:

Yoenis Cespedes

Hanley Ramirez

Pablo Sandoval

Allan Craig

Joe Kelly

 

You have lost:

Jake Peavy

Jon Lester

John Lackey

Andrew Miller

 

On a team that had given up the most runs in the AL East at last season's deadline and scored the least, you have added some serious offensive firepower and dropped some serious arms. It's not like you had a surplus that you dealt from to even things out. Your rotation is a disaster. You need to replace and improve upon Lester, Lackey and Peavy in the rotation and Miller in the pen. It cannot be done in one offseason. You need some kids to develop and some big fish to bite.

 

You forgot Dubront. Lucky you.

[Spudboy]

I disagree with you Doc. I don't see why building a rotation about as good as the one they started 2013 is not possible. And Miller, as well as he pitched for one season, is replaceable.

Cherrington said that there are several ways to build a rotation ( other than signing Lester ).

 

I'm not convinced that the Sox will be "all in" in pursuit of a title in 2015. I'm thinking that they may still value the chips they hold and will chase arms in a more abundant 2016 FA class.

 

But to say that the Sox can not build a rotation and replace "a Miller" in one off season is disingenuous or wishful thinking.

[User Name]

I can absolutely understand people who are worried about the sox rotation. Currently, your rotation looks awful. Buchholz was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball last season. Joe Kelly looked like a swing man and walks the park. And neither of the above two pitchers are exactly known as iron men. If Clay and Kelly were 4 and 5 of your rotation, you could live with it. They aren't. You need a 1, a 2, and a 3 in the same offseason. That is hard to find

 

It's December. And of course you do, it's your schtick. And you're not very good at logic either ways.