The rebuild thread.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Nava had his best career yr

Victorino revived his career and the best WAR of his career

Napoli had the second highest WAR of his career

Ortiz had a near identical WAR to 2011, which was the best since 2007.

Uehara had the best yr ever for a reliever

Salty had his best career season

Pedroia had a 5.4WAR season with a torn UCL

Buchholz had a career half season

Mike Carp had his best yr

Stephen Drew had his best season since his ankle shattered in 2011, and his second best season in his career

John Lackey returned from oblivion to have a great season

 

Let's not act like all of these are completely ridiculous or unexpected.

 

-Koji had a 2.36 ERA from 2010 - 2012, he was (somehow) completely underrated.

-Victorino had the exact same WAR in 2011. He was literally 1-year removed from that exact same WAR. It wasn't his career best. He played as well as he did, LITERALLY, 2 years prior to that.

-Napoli had the 2nd highest WAR of his career because he played 1B, not C, where he played more games. Believe it or not, Games Played are a major contributing factor in WAR.

-Ortiz had (nearly) the same WAR as 2011 (3.9 to 3.8). And guess what? His 2012 WAR was 2.9 over 90 games. Over the same 137 games he played in 2013, that would be a 4.4 WAR. So, this is again a garbage statement.

-Pedroia's UCL affected his SLG. His WAR is always impacted strongly by his defense, and he has always always been the best defensive 2B in the MLB, that didn't change, that's not playing above his head. That's not overachieving.

-Buchholz posted a 3.2 WAR. He pitched 108.1 IP. To say that he "overachieved" when he was hurt for literally 1/2 of a season is grasping at straws.

-Lackey had TJS, and he's a better year this year than he had last year, based on FIP and xFIP.

 

Drew and Nava played well above their heads. But the rest? That's you grasping at straws man. Thats you bitterly grasping at straws, trying to manipulate statistics (i.e. referencing WAR without referencing games played as the main deterrent), and laying out complete BS.

[win red sox]

Nava had his best career yr

Victorino revived his career and the best WAR of his career

Napoli had the second highest WAR of his career

Ortiz had a near identical WAR to 2011, which was the best since 2007.

Uehara had the best yr ever for a reliever

Salty had his best career season

Pedroia had a 5.4WAR season with a torn UCL

Buchholz had a career half season

Mike Carp had his best yr

Stephen Drew had his best season since his ankle shattered in 2011, and his second best season in his career

John Lackey returned from oblivion to have a great season

 

Outside of Carp and Nava nobody had a career year and Victorino matched his career high in fwar but it was mostly Defensive driven(if you trust defensive metrics). I tend to look at the 2013 World Series Champions in a different view, they played to there potential. I'm sure you can counter argue it somehow.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Outside of Carp and Nava nobody had a career year and Victorino matched his career high in fwar but it was mostly Defensive driven(if you trust defensive metrics). I tend to look at the 2013 World Series Champions in a different view, they played to there potential. I'm sure you can counter argue it somehow.

 

Good point. Victorino's fWAR was extremely defensive driven because he moved to a corner OF slot where your def rating skyrockets (See: Brett Gardner), and thus your fWAR skyrockets.

[jacksonianmarch]

Let's not act like all of these are completely ridiculous or unexpected.

 

-Koji had a 2.36 ERA from 2010 - 2012, he was (somehow) completely underrated.

Yes, he was underrated. He threw the most innings of his big league career and had a 1.09ERA with an 11.2K/BB ratio, both career bests. His 3.3WAR was the highest of his career, by far

 

-Victorino had the exact same WAR in 2011. He was literally 1-year removed from that exact same WAR. It wasn't his career best. He played as well as he did, LITERALLY, 2 years prior to that.

Victorino's highest WAR of his career was 5.6. He did it in 2013 and matched it in 2011. He had a career high BA and his second best SLG of his career. His OPS of .802 was just the third time in his career that he eclipsed .800. He also had the highest BABIP of his career

 

-Napoli had the 2nd highest WAR of his career because he played 1B, not C, where he played more games. Believe it or not, Games Played are a major contributing factor in WAR.

Napoli had the highest BABIP of his career at .367. While not a career yr, it shows a hell of a lot of luck

 

Ortiz had (nearly) the same WAR as 2011 (3.9 to 3.8). And guess what? His 2012 WAR was 2.9 over 90 games. Over the same 137 games he played in 2013, that would be a 4.4 WAR. So, this is again a garbage statement.

So saying that Ortiz, at 38, should see improved health and hit .300 with 30HR again is realistic? He overachieved massively last yr, as evidence by his slide into older age this yr

 

-Pedroia's UCL affected his SLG. His WAR is always impacted strongly by his defense, and he has always always been the best defensive 2B in the MLB, that didn't change, that's not playing above his head. That's not overachieving.

Just so I am aware, hitting .300 with a .370OBP without stability in your thumb is considered normal? What are you smoking?

 

Buchholz posted a 3.2 WAR. He pitched 108.1 IP. To say that he "overachieved" when he was hurt for literally 1/2 of a season is grasping at straws.

You know what grasping at straws is? Saying his first half of 2013 wasn't a career half season. His 3.2WAR was the second highest of his career...in a half season. Stop being a dolt

 

-Lackey had TJS, and he's a better year this year than he had last year, based on FIP and xFIP.

SO Lackey returning at age 34 (which is over the hill in the post steroid era) with his prime velocity and production was expected? Shall I go digging for your posts around March of 2013?

 

Drew and Nava played well above their heads. But the rest? That's you grasping at straws man. Thats you bitterly grasping at straws, trying to manipulate statistics (i.e. referencing WAR without referencing games played as the main deterrent), and laying out complete BS.

 

And I think you have some crow to eat...

http://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/PHOTO/LARGE/american_crow_8.jpg

 

GRAB A FORK!

[reYoukilis]

More than anything its been our lack of hitting w/RISP, thats it. That sounds like a psychological problem. Stats are all good and well but they dont explain team play and we had that in spades last year and thats why we look like we overachieved.

[BigPapi]

Yes, he was underrated. He threw the most innings of his big league career and had a 1.09ERA with an 11.2K/BB ratio, both career bests. His 3.3WAR was the highest of his career, by far

 

 

Victorino's highest WAR of his career was 5.6. He did it in 2013 and matched it in 2011. He had a career high BA and his second best SLG of his career. His OPS of .802 was just the third time in his career that he eclipsed .800. He also had the highest BABIP of his career

 

 

Napoli had the highest BABIP of his career at .367. While not a career yr, it shows a hell of a lot of luck

 

 

So saying that Ortiz, at 38, should see improved health and hit .300 with 30HR again is realistic? He overachieved massively last yr, as evidence by his slide into older age this yr

 

 

Just so I am aware, hitting .300 with a .370OBP without stability in your thumb is considered normal? What are you smoking?

 

 

You know what grasping at straws is? Saying his first half of 2013 wasn't a career half season. His 3.2WAR was the second highest of his career...in a half season. Stop being a dolt

 

 

SO Lackey returning at age 34 (which is over the hill in the post steroid era) with his prime velocity and production was expected? Shall I go digging for your posts around March of 2013?

 

 

 

And I think you have some crow to eat...

http://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/PHOTO/LARGE/american_crow_8.jpg

 

GRAB A FORK!

 

 

Ortiz did not over achieve last year. He was on pace for an even better season the year before. And if you watched the actual red sox season, you would know that napoli did not overachieve at all. He was benched for carp essentially in July for a period and was a 260 hitter. His babip was high because of his strikeouts last year and again he is proving this year a high babip doesn't necessarily translate to a high average for him as his babip is 362. Except i do agree with you that clays first half was an over achievement.

Edited July 10, 2014 by BigPapi

[Palodios]

Also, the problem with this is that there probably aren't buyers who have two top-50's. You'd be better served to get a top 10 guy and maybe a lower level (high A) guy who has a lot of potential but has a few years to get there, and maybe ranks in the 80-90 range.

 

The Blue Jays are probably the best trade partner here. They showed last year that they are in win-now mode. With Tanaka out for the year, Blue Jay ownership probably sees a prime opportunity to finally get out from underneath the Yankee and Red Sox shadows.

 

Sanchez was ranked at #32 and Stroman was #55 by Baseball America, so the talent to give up is there. Their offense is monstrous. Their starting rotation could use a front of the rotation guy, and their bullpen is pretty shallow.

[jd98]

Makes absolutely no sense to include Pedroia on a list of overachievers last season. Because he was very unlucky to suffer a season long injury on opening day, and proceeded to have the lowest OPS of his career other than his first partial season, this makes him an overachiever? Huh? Not in my book.

[Station 13]

BABIP is fluky to a hitter like Napoli, strikeouts and walks do not count towards BABIP, neither does HR. All three of which he does pretty well at.

 

BABIP is more of a stats for pitchers.

Edited July 10, 2014 by Station 13

[BigPapi]

Makes absolutely no sense to include Pedroia on a list of overachievers last season. Because he was very unlucky to suffer a season long injury on opening day, and proceeded to have the lowest OPS of his career other than his first partial season, this makes him an overachiever? Huh? Not in my book.

 

Ya you can't call him an over achiever in any aspect. He was 29 last season so you can't say he was on the decline age wise. As you pointed out, he had the lowest ops of his career for a full season. He hit 300, which is what he is fully capable of doing. And you can't use the injury to his thumb as a knock saying that it should have caused him to have a bad season. Thats stupid to say.

[BigPapi]

BABIP is fluky to a hitter like Napoli, strikeouts and walks do not count towards BABIP, neither does HR. All three of which he does pretty well at.

 

Exactly right. Anything that doesn't put the ball in the field of play. Napoli has a knack for getting hits when he puts the ball in play. But mainly the strikeouts. If he struck out 100 times instead of 187 times and put the ball in play on those other 87 times without getting a hit instead, his babip would have been .282, which suits his .259 average in 2013 better.

Edited July 10, 2014 by BigPapi

[seabeachfred]

I'm leaving for Chicago early tomorrow so I'll be out of site for a few days but here's what I think is of vast importance for the team. If they cannot sign Lester they have to trade him and not wait until he is a FA and we blow it again trying to resign one of our FA. To hell with a draft choice; we need some real almost ready talent for the guy. The Dodgers are now searching for a starting pitcher with Beckett on the DL and Haren being ineffective. We could at least get Lester out of the AL and out of the arms of the Yankees if we can trade him to the Bums. For him we demand Joc Peterson and Corey Seager, a CF and a SS. Walla!!!!!!!! Two positions filled with quality young players for a long time. If necessary we can throw in Bradley to even the trade. Now I would much rather keep Lester on the Red Sox but everything Cherington has tried this season has turned to crap so I'm not confident he can get his s*** together and get Jon signed to a long term contract. He had better be sure that if he does trade Lester he gets solid young talent for them, and if it is the Dodgers it is those two I just mentioned.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yes, he was underrated. He threw the most innings of his big league career and had a 1.09ERA with an 11.2K/BB ratio, both career bests. His 3.3WAR was the highest of his career, by far

 

 

Victorino's highest WAR of his career was 5.6. He did it in 2013 and matched it in 2011. He had a career high BA and his second best SLG of his career. His OPS of .802 was just the third time in his career that he eclipsed .800. He also had the highest BABIP of his career

 

 

Napoli had the highest BABIP of his career at .367. While not a career yr, it shows a hell of a lot of luck

 

 

So saying that Ortiz, at 38, should see improved health and hit .300 with 30HR again is realistic? He overachieved massively last yr, as evidence by his slide into older age this yr

 

 

Just so I am aware, hitting .300 with a .370OBP without stability in your thumb is considered normal? What are you smoking?

 

 

You know what grasping at straws is? Saying his first half of 2013 wasn't a career half season. His 3.2WAR was the second highest of his career...in a half season. Stop being a dolt

 

 

SO Lackey returning at age 34 (which is over the hill in the post steroid era) with his prime velocity and production was expected? Shall I go digging for your posts around March of 2013?

 

 

 

And I think you have some crow to eat...

http://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/PHOTO/LARGE/american_crow_8.jpg

 

GRAB A FORK!

 

Koji: He's repeating his performance from last year right now. That's not overachieving. That's just "achieving".

 

Victorino's WAR was primarily based on DEF rating when he moved to RF, bumping his DEF rating to 19.5 (CF moving to corner outfield positions usually see a big bump in DEF rating). That's where his value came from. His OFF rating (14.8) had been replicated in 3 of the prior 5 seasons. He also went to hitting RH only, which absolutely made a difference, particularly in his power. Again, there is a reason that his numbers went up. It's not a fluke when there is a reason.

 

Napoli's line last year? .259/.360/.482. Napoli's career line? .260/.360/.497. Please explain how that's "overachieving". This may have been your worst argument.

 

A lot of people expected Lackey to break out now that he didn't have a torn UCL in his elbow. Oh, and did you see how much better shape he was in? Yeah, when you lose that much weight and get your elbow fixed, generally you're not fighting yourself or your injury as much and you can see big improvements.

 

Buchholz overachieved for 1/2 of a season. That's it. He was also out for the 2nd half of the season. So regardless of how good he was in the first half, he only provided value for 1/2 of a season. The Sox won the WS last year despite Buchholz's injuries, not because of his strong first half.

 

And I'll leave the crow eating to you, since you don't seem to understand "overachievement" and continue to make yourself look foolish.

[Bellhorn04]

I'll agree that the Red Sox benefitted from some good fortune and some overachieving last year. The thing is, though, that this is not uncommon for World Series winners. You don't see too many 'superteams' that steamroll through the regular season and the playoffs. And we're not seeing any teams repeat.

[Palodios]

I'm leaving for Chicago early tomorrow

 

You too? It'll be my first time in Chicago, for a wedding. Heading to Wrigley on Sunday.

[sk7326]

I agree, with Uehara's age bring what it is. Not sure we have a closer to replace him though.

 

We "found" Uehara last year. Just means we'd find another one: Personally, I'd try out Allen Webster

[BigPapi]

Its going to be interesting to see what the sox due at the deadline. They got 16 games until then. If they can continue riding this 2 game winning streak, we could potentially be buyers. 8 and 8 won't cut it as they realistically would have to go somewhere in the area of 40 and 14 just to hope to make the playoffs. If they can get to around the .500 mark by winning at least 11 out of the 16 games, then maybe they could consider making a move for offense. Even though the schedule isn't incredibly hard, its still obviously not very realistic for the sox to do that.

[a700hitter]

We have done horribly bad in a homestand against the worst teams in baseball. I am not very hopeful of better results when we play good teams.

[Station 13]

This team beat itself, bad defense, bad offense, bad pitching at times when they have an offense night.

[Station 13]

We "found" Uehara last year. Just means we'd find another one: Personally, I'd try out Allen Webster

 

Tazawa? He has excellent stats. His ERA is like 1.00 when he is ask to preserve a lead or hold a tie game. His struggles seems to be at garbage times when the team is leading 5 or trailing 5.

[sk7326]

Tazawa? He has excellent stats. His ERA is like 1.00 when he is ask to preserve a lead or hold a tie game. His struggles seems to be at garbage times when the team is leading 5 or trailing 5.

 

Tazawa is a fine choice too. Frankly, my view on Webster is based on feelings he has knockout stuff, but I have serious reservations about whether he can turn a lineup over 2-3 times.

[sk7326]

We have done horribly bad in a homestand against the worst teams in baseball. I am not very hopeful of better results when we play good teams.

 

I wouldn't be either - but they have made the moves they should have made much earlier. They wasted a month or two of development time on some very low probability projects. This lineup is unlikely to win the division too, but it has a better chance. Certainly it can help the run prevention, which was good already.

[a700hitter]

Victorino has played in 3 of the PawSox's last 4 games. Hopefully, he will be back with the team on Friday.

[Spudboy]

Victorino has played in 3 of the PawSox's last 4 games. Hopefully, he will be back with the team on Friday.

 

But when he returns, what do you expect of him?

[Behindenemylines]

I still can't see trading Lester. The last season and a half he has proven he can be the ace. You need an anchor for all of the young arms. I also can't see them trading Ortiz or Pedroia. Other then that I would listen to offers for any other veteran Sox. 2013 proved that in today's baseball world you can turn things around quickly.

[Bellhorn04]

I still can't see trading Lester. The last season and a half he has proven he can be the ace. You need an anchor for all of the young arms. I also can't see them trading Ortiz or Pedroia. Other then that I would listen to offers for any other veteran Sox. 2013 proved that in today's baseball world you can turn things around quickly.

 

I only see them trading guys who aren't signed beyond this year.

[a700hitter]

But when he returns, what do you expect of him?

An offensive spark.

[SoxFanForsyth]

An offensive spark.

 

Who goes down when Victorino comes back?

[jd98]

Who goes down when Victorino comes back?

 

I bet it's Betts

[win red sox]

@nickcafardo 35m

The Red Sox were one of a few teams to watch Cole Hamels earlier this week. Hamels has four years remaining on his contract

 

 

makes sense, it would allow them to move Lester and/or Lackey for offense.