The rebuild thread.

[jacksonianmarch]

So here we are, 90 games in and the sox are on pace for a repeat of 2012. Right now, they are on pace for 70 wins. That being said, they have a lot of kids who could benefit from auditions and the sox could benefit by moving some over the hill vets to desperate teams at the deadline.

 

My recommendations...

 

DEAL NOW

I'd deal Lester right now. Lester isn't signing with the sox, the sox tried to negotiate a low ball deal, Lester decided to see how things worked out, and he is having an ace like season. This is the first yr he's averaged a K/IP since 2010. He's on pace for another 200IP season, which will be 6 out of 7. ERA and WHIP would be career lows. With Samardzija off the market, Lester would be the gigantic get and probably a bigger name to go than Price. We know you aren't moving him to NY. But where could he go? One possibility is Seattle. You've got a team dying to get back to the playoffs who is stocked with young pitching talent. Currently, they have a rotation of Felix, Iwakuma, Elias, Young, and ???. Elias is unpredictable, Young cannot be counted on. You add Lester into that 2 hole and you have a team with a very dangerous rotation. It works for Lester too, as he gets to go home. Any deal would presumably have to start with Taijuan Walker, but DJ Peterson is an intriguing player as well. 22 yr old 3B who is up to AA right now and has hit 21HR on the yr with a .967OPS. Either way, the possibility of grabbing a potential front line starter like Walker or a middle of the order CIF has to be better than the 30-something pick in the draft.

 

I'd also deal Uehara. The guy is 40 and he is healthy and dominating. He isn't part of any rebuild. That being said, he is probably the best closer in baseball right now. The Halos need relievers more than ever, but don't have the MiLB goods. The other LA team is your target. If you could package Uehara with someone and get Joc Pederson, you might find a corner OFer with power you've been craving for awhile now.

 

I'd deal Peavy to anyone willing to take anything for him, even willing to eat money if you can get a piece you can live with. You aren't offering him a QO

 

DEAL AFTER THE SEASON

Mike Napoli- There is no point to dealing a slugging 1b mid season since you typically overpay for pitching at the deadline and underpay for offense. Also, he'd probably be the most sought after CIF this offseason with nobody else really out there (Sorry Kendrys and Headley). It also gives you an extra yr to determine your direction. The above 2 guys are gone at years end, anyway. If you decide to make a run at 2015, maybe you keep Nap. If not, maybe you deal him.

 

Shane Victorino- He just hasn't been healthy. Dealing him now is not a good idea. Dealing him after the season, assuming he finishes the yr well would maximize his value without pulling away PT from your kids.

 

DEAL ONLY IF IN A FULL REBUILD

Ortiz- He is finally showing his age and another yr on top of that isn't going to be kind to him as he reaches 40. Someone will be desperate, and if he wants to win and the sox are obviously going into a rebuild, you gotta let him out and get something back for him.

 

Pedroia- I was tempted to put him in the "after the season" list, but I wont. Yes, he is the heart and soul of your team. But he is a little guy on the wrong side of thirty signed for a long time. You deal him this offseason, and you can play 2014 off as an adjustment yr back from surgery. He comes out in 2015 as a .280 hitter with no power and he's a has been. That being said, he is still far above average for his position and if the team sees improvements on the trade or FA market, he's a keeper no question.

 

Buchholz- I don't deal this guy until he is cruising again. We all know it wont last, but if you deal him now, you're eating money and getting nothing back. If he gives you another 15 game stretch where he's sub 2ERA, then you maximize your profits and move him. That being said, a full out rebuild means you wont have a rotation spot for him and holding onto him is worse than dealing him.

[Station 13]

Trading Lester/Uehara will bring back blue chippers. Both of them are FAs to be. The Red Sox should listen on all of them and get the best return. Lester reportedly ask the Sox to match Detroit offer to Scherzer . Either grant his request or deal him. We'll build around De La Rosa and Owens on the pitching side if that's the case.

[Palodios]

Trade and try to resign: Lester, Koji

Trade and say goodbye: Peavy, Doubront

Consider offers: Buchholz, Lackey, Holt, Nava

Dump : Drew, AJ, Gomes

 

Keep: Ortiz, Napoli, Pedroia, Tazawa, Victorino, all the rookies.

[Palodios]

Lester + Koji is a big get for a contending team -- adding last year's ALCS MVP, and a guy who should have been a World Series MVP in any other year would be huge. If they pulled in two blue chips for the pair, they will have far too many top notch prospects.

 

With such a pile of trade chips, Stanton may be attainable. It also soothes the pain of an otherwise awful season.

 

There is the argument that with Fernandez, the Marlins may compete next year, but they just seem so far away in a very tough division.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lester + Koji is a big get for a contending team -- adding last year's ALCS MVP, and a guy who should have been a World Series MVP in any other year would be huge. If they pulled in two blue chips for the pair, they will have far too many top notch prospects.

 

With such a pile of trade chips, Stanton may be attainable. It also soothes the pain of an otherwise awful season.

 

There is the argument that with Fernandez, the Marlins may compete next year, but they just seem so far away in a very tough division.

 

Miami is 5 games out with their ace on the shelf. They have Stanton under contract for 2015 and 2016. They can see how they look next yr and still deal him for a massive haul. You are going to have to give such a massive haul that it hurts your team in the long term

[Palodios]

Miami is 5 games out with their ace on the shelf. They have Stanton under contract for 2015 and 2016. They can see how they look next yr and still deal him for a massive haul. You are going to have to give such a massive haul that it hurts your team in the long term

 

Without Fernandez, they are a go-nowhere team. What if he doesn't come back healthy, or takes him a while to regain his form? You can't bet your organization on two players.

 

3 bluechip prospects + Doubront + WMB is a huge haul for any player, assuming they still value Middlebrooks highly. With two bluechips coming externally in a Lester/Koji trade, it doesn't really hurt the team that much.

[sk7326]

AJ is dumped - good.

Trade: Peavy, Buchholz any reliever not nailed to the ground.

Keep: Lester, Ortiz, Napoli, Pedroia, kiddos

[Thunder]

I still think everyone is overreacting. We have a bad 1st half as reigning champs and all of a sudden you guys want to get rid of everybody and start over. Want to sit in last for the next five years like the Astros? Offensively, we have lost a lot from last year. Some people like Ells we can't replace. Some people like Victorino are just on the DL. Other factors, such as Nava, Gomes, Napoli, and Ortiz are having subpar years offensively. Injuries have killed this team this year. If WMB was healthy, there is no way Xander would be playing everyday right now, and maybe he would even be optioned back to Pawtucket to get that swing back. I see this thread more as a purpose to blow off steam because we miss what we had last year. Everybody slow down and look at the facts here.

[sk7326]

I still think everyone is overreacting. We have a bad 1st half as reigning champs and all of a sudden you guys want to get rid of everybody and start over. Want to sit in last for the next five years like the Astros? Offensively, we have lost a lot from last year. Some people like Ells we can't replace. Some people like Victorino are just on the DL. Other factors, such as Nava, Gomes, Napoli, and Ortiz are having subpar years offensively. Injuries have killed this team this year. If WMB was healthy, there is no way Xander would be playing everyday right now, and maybe he would even be optioned back to Pawtucket to get that swing back. I see this thread more as a purpose to blow off steam because we miss what we had last year. Everybody slow down and look at the facts here.

 

Agree with all of this - but nothing wrong with trading opportunistically. The younger guys have a better chance of giving this team a chance to contend THIS year than what they let go.

[Palodios]

Injuries have killed this team this year.

 

This really isn't true. The entire starting staff has been healthy, besides a phantom DL trip for Buchholz. The bullpen has been completely intact.

 

Victorino has been a big loss for the team, and I get the feeling WMB was phantom DLed as well. If you look around baseball, everyone else has had life much worse -- including the Jays and O's who both have significant injury issues.

[Thunder]

Agree with all of this - but nothing wrong with trading opportunistically. The younger guys have a better chance of giving this team a chance to contend THIS year than what they let go.

 

If we trade Lester and Uehara and try to resign them in the offseason, there's no guarantee we will get them back. Lester will probably be pissed.

[sk7326]

If we trade Lester and Uehara and try to resign them in the offseason, there's no guarantee we will get them back. Lester will probably be pissed.

 

I am against a Lester trade. I am pro any good deal for any reliever - Uehara included. They are wholly fungible. I'd like to keep Uehara, but if he can get a Top 50 prospect - that is worth a 60 inning pitcher, period.

[Thunder]

I am against a Lester trade. I am pro any good deal for any reliever - Uehara included. They are wholly fungible. I'd like to keep Uehara, but if he can get a Top 50 prospect - that is worth a 60 inning pitcher, period.

 

I agree, with Uehara's age bring what it is. Not sure we have a closer to replace him though.

[Northern Star]

I still think everyone is overreacting. We have a bad 1st half as reigning champs and all of a sudden you guys want to get rid of everybody and start over. Want to sit in last for the next five years like the Astros? Offensively, we have lost a lot from last year. Some people like Ells we can't replace. Some people like Victorino are just on the DL. Other factors, such as Nava, Gomes, Napoli, and Ortiz are having subpar years offensively. Injuries have killed this team this year. If WMB was healthy, there is no way Xander would be playing everyday right now, and maybe he would even be optioned back to Pawtucket to get that swing back. I see this thread more as a purpose to blow off steam because we miss what we had last year. Everybody slow down and look at the facts here.

 

Just amazing to talk about rebuilding the defending champions.

[reYoukilis]

I still think everyone is overreacting. We have a bad 1st half as reigning champs and all of a sudden you guys want to get rid of everybody and start over. Want to sit in last for the next five years like the Astros? Offensively, we have lost a lot from last year. Some people like Ells we can't replace. Some people like Victorino are just on the DL. Other factors, such as Nava, Gomes, Napoli, and Ortiz are having subpar years offensively. Injuries have killed this team this year. If WMB was healthy, there is no way Xander would be playing everyday right now, and maybe he would even be optioned back to Pawtucket to get that swing back. I see this thread more as a purpose to blow off steam because we miss what we had last year. Everybody slow down and look at the facts here.

If the Astros experiment turns out to be successful in the next couple of years, would we have wished we wouldve stayed on course with the same plan? Look at the A's. Its a youth movement, all we're doing is committing to it sooner rather than later. Resign Lester though, hes still young enough to come out the other end of the movement and still be effective.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I still think everyone is overreacting. We have a bad 1st half as reigning champs and all of a sudden you guys want to get rid of everybody and start over. Want to sit in last for the next five years like the Astros? Offensively, we have lost a lot from last year. Some people like Ells we can't replace. Some people like Victorino are just on the DL. Other factors, such as Nava, Gomes, Napoli, and Ortiz are having subpar years offensively. Injuries have killed this team this year. If WMB was healthy, there is no way Xander would be playing everyday right now, and maybe he would even be optioned back to Pawtucket to get that swing back. I see this thread more as a purpose to blow off steam because we miss what we had last year. Everybody slow down and look at the facts here.

 

The facts are this.

 

1. This team is 12 games under .500 after 90 games.

2. This team still has not gotten a deal done with Lester. If they can't work something out by the ASB, they need to strongly consider moving him because you can get a blue chip prospect from a desperate team (see: Taijuan Walker from SEA) and that's a hell of a lot better than the 35th pick int he draft.

3. This team isn't going to be sitting in last place for 5 years. I can absolutely see them going out and trading Swihart, Owens, and Ranaudo for a guy like Tulo either this offseason or this deadline. It's going to be a hybrid of young talent and acquiring some very strong veteran talent. I can also see them getting Lee, trading Lester for a blue chip, and thus giving them another year of a top of the rotation guy to let the other arms develop, but not having to commit 5-6 years to Lester. Lee would only require a 1-2 year commitment.

4. Trading a lot of these veterans and getting the young kids up here right now to let them iron out some of those development wrinkles is a very good idea. The more lumps you swallow now, the less you have to swallow later. Not to mention, you will have a better idea of holes you need to fill.

 

Sometimes you just have to call a spade a spade. This year is a throw away, development year. Now don't half ass the development part.

[jacksonianmarch]

The facts are that the sox overachieved massively last yr. And then you downgraded in CF and C. You toyed with Drew and by the time you got him back, his timing was off. The glass slippers fell off a few players and the kids who you needed to step up, fell back. This was a bad team defending their title. That's a fact

[jacksonianmarch]

And injuries killed your team? Cry me a f***ing river. Our 1,3,4, and 5 starters entering the yr are on the DL. Our RFer can't play the field anymore because of his arm which led to Sori taking a bench role and getting DFAd. Your injury history this yr is minor

[Thunder]

The facts are that the sox overachieved massively last yr. And then you downgraded in CF and C. You toyed with Drew and by the time you got him back, his timing was off. The glass slippers fell off a few players and the kids who you needed to step up, fell back. This was a bad team defending their title. That's a fact

 

This I agree with. I could have stated the point in a better way. I hate to say it, but last season was almost a fluke, boosted by the bombings. Pro sports usually find a way to be rigged like that, where a team facing adversity goes far. Before you bring up the 2001 Yankees, and how they should have won the WS, that team was part of a dynasty. Last year's Sox team was not. 2010 was marred by injuries, 2011 was stupid, 2012 was just a complete failure. They just flat out over performed last year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The facts are that the sox overachieved massively last yr. And then you downgraded in CF and C. You toyed with Drew and by the time you got him back, his timing was off. The glass slippers fell off a few players and the kids who you needed to step up, fell back. This was a bad team defending their title. That's a fact

 

I agree with a lot of this. They overachieved, sure, but they also lost a 6 win player in Victorino to the DL, the FO overreacted by signing Drew and then expecting him to be game ready after 10 days in AAA, and they didn't try to supplement the massive amount of loss in offense from Ellsbury by acquiring some kind of power bat.

 

It's actually a little difficult to pinpoint exactly what's going on. Nava had a slow start but came on strong. Gomes is still hitting lefties well enough. Bogaerts is struggling now but he was playing well and the Sox were still losing. Pedroia's numbers are right on track. Ortiz has power, but his average is down a lot.

 

The Sox have an above average team OBP (.320, 11th in MLB), but are 27th in SLG (which, oddly enough, is more strongly correlated with runs scored than OBP), which is a big surprise and couldn't possibly be anticipated, particularly given they led the league with a .446 team SLG last year and they lost Ellsbury (.426 SLG) and Salty (.466), who together averaged out to right around the Sox .446 SLG, so you would think they could at least provide .420-.430 SLG even with some regression.

 

I don't know, this whole season went to crap. Last year they overachieved in a few areas, but I wouldn't call the WS a fluke. A lot of things have to go right for any team to win the WS. And rarely does the best team preseason win the WS.

Edited July 10, 2014 by SoxFanForsyth

[reYoukilis]

The facts are that the sox overachieved massively last yr. And then you downgraded in CF and C. You toyed with Drew and by the time you got him back, his timing was off. The glass slippers fell off a few players and the kids who you needed to step up, fell back. This was a bad team defending their title. That's a fact

The only fact is that we're WS Champs. Look up the word "fact". As a Yankee fan of course youd like to say that last year was a fluke and this year is more like reality. I think alot of this is in our heads and we're severely underachieving. How can we beat the Yanks two out of three in Yankee Stadium and then get swept by the Cubs at home?

 

However I do agree about the timing of getting Drew was off.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Jon Lester, Andrew Miller, and Koji Uehara for Taijuan Walker, who hangs up first?

 

Henry Owens, Blake Swihart, and Allen Webster for Tulo, who hangs up first?

[jad]

Trade Uehara?? And then what? Do the names Bailey, Hanrahan, etc. ring a bell? He's probably dollar for dollar the most valuable asset the Sox have. For the kind of money he makes, the Sox will pick up what? Another Jonny Gomes?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Trade Uehara?? And then what? Do the names Bailey, Hanrahan, etc. ring a bell? He's probably dollar for dollar the most valuable asset the Sox have. For the kind of money he makes, the Sox will pick up what? Another Jonny Gomes?

 

huh?? Uehara is a free agent after this season. If you can use him to turn Lester into Walker, you do.

[Palodios]

huh?? Uehara is a free agent after this season. If you can use him to turn Lester into Walker, you do.

 

Lester and Koji are worth more than Walker. I wouldn't trade the pair for any less than two top 50 prospects, and I can cite a dozen examples with comparable prospect returns for top tier pitching.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Lester and Koji are worth more than Walker. I wouldn't trade the pair for any less than two top 50 prospects, and I can cite a dozen examples with comparable prospect returns for top tier pitching.

 

You know Taijuan Walker was the #11 prospect (BA), #6 prospect (MLB) and #8 prospect (Baseball Prospectus) coming into this season, correct?

 

But, I did forget about his previous injury history.

 

I highly doubt the Cardinals would trade Tavares, but you have to ask. Also inquire on Joc Pederson & Corey Seager from the Dodgers.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Actually, if you can get Joc Pederson (.319/.437/.568 in AAA, although it's the PCL where numbers are inflated), you have your OF for the future with Betts - Bradley - Pederson going LF - CF - RF.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Lester and Koji are worth more than Walker. I wouldn't trade the pair for any less than two top 50 prospects, and I can cite a dozen examples with comparable prospect returns for top tier pitching.

 

Also, the problem with this is that there probably aren't buyers who have two top-50's. You'd be better served to get a top 10 guy and maybe a lower level (high A) guy who has a lot of potential but has a few years to get there, and maybe ranks in the 80-90 range.

[win red sox]

The facts are that the sox overachieved massively last yr. And then you downgraded in CF and C. You toyed with Drew and by the time you got him back, his timing was off. The glass slippers fell off a few players and the kids who you needed to step up, fell back. This was a bad team defending their title. That's a fact

 

I've seen this before and maybe I don't understand, but who overachieved?

[jacksonianmarch]

I've seen this before and maybe I don't understand, but who overachieved?

 

Nava had his best career yr

Victorino revived his career and the best WAR of his career

Napoli had the second highest WAR of his career

Ortiz had a near identical WAR to 2011, which was the best since 2007.

Uehara had the best yr ever for a reliever

Salty had his best career season

Pedroia had a 5.4WAR season with a torn UCL

Buchholz had a career half season

Mike Carp had his best yr

Stephen Drew had his best season since his ankle shattered in 2011, and his second best season in his career

John Lackey returned from oblivion to have a great season