The Jon Lester contract situation

[sk7326]

How many big pieces gets traded and sign huge extensions? Rarely. The Sox did it with Pedro a long time ago, giving him the biggest contracted ever for a pitcher. Today soon to be FA today won't do it. I also put Lester return to Boston at 50-50.

 

Not nearly that high. Basically when he said "let's move this to the offseason", Lester has committed to at least exploring the auction. Boston will have to put a competitive offer to get him. They might not have to offer the most, but it has to be close. There is very little evidence that they have been inclined to make that kind of offer. And frankly, I don't think has really been Cherington's call.

[a700hitter]

With all the talk being about Lester and Price and Lackey, I was surprised that the first big name to get traded is Masteson.

[Palodios]

It seems like the strongest interest (and likely one-dumb-owner-theory owner) is coming from Seattle.

 

I would be stoked to see Lester go to Seattle, re-sign there, and actually have him there next season after I move.

[sk7326]

With all the talk being about Lester and Price and Lackey, I was surprised that the first big name to get traded is Masteson.

 

He didn't cost an arm and a leg - and the durability and upside is there - if not the probability. For some contenders, they just need guys who can make a dozen reasonably competitive starts. It is interesting how the industry values innings - not necessarily stupendous quality, but the ability to deliver in bulk. (of course that is central as to why Lester is a good value in the market regardless of whether he replicates his 2014 form)

[Northern Star]

It seems like the strongest interest (and likely one-dumb-owner-theory owner) is coming from Seattle.

 

I would be stoked to see Lester go to Seattle, re-sign there, and actually have him there next season after I move.

 

You're moving to Seattle? I hate you.

[example1]

E1, good to see you. Stick around if you have some time. You make good points, and when I have some time tonight, I will put together a more thoughtful response. Keep in mind that young pitchers and prospects are just as likely to go down with an injury or underperform-- maybe even more likely. Of course the financila investment in them would be small compared to Lester. The one difference is that while Lester remains healthy, you know that you will be getting ace-like performance for a few more years. Prospects are just crap-shoots. I think the Sox have to start filling in the rotation with some young arms, but I also think they need one or two guys to build around. Lackey even with an extension should be fairly cost-controlled. Lester would be a big invesstment, but I think they could have raised the AAV and shortened the term to a reasonable 4 or 5 years. Reports are that they have made nothing beyond one nonserious offer. I think it is a mistake. TTYL.

 

I agree with the end of this statement--much of it actually. I think we have yet to see exactly what the Red Sox mean by having a disciplined approach where they don't pay market value for guys over 30. Clearly they think there's a strategic advantage to not having ANY risk around contracts like those. I wonder what that advantage yields... Does it mean that they will constantly be in a process of gathering prospects to make really good runs at the mid-20 proven stars? Does it mean that they will use the additional money to pay younger prospects for longer-term reasonable contracts? I don't think we really know. I think the end game here involves some relatively good star power coming to Boston at some point. As you've said in the past they can't just put out no-names and expect the fans to be excited. At the same time, watching home-grown players succeed on a good team is pretty exciting too.

 

As for points made by others that sometimes you just have to overpay and not get value at the end of the contract, or that the Red Sox aren't a small market team that needs to watch their spending I think that's true to a point. Right now they don't have to watch their spending that closely. However, the margin between watching spending and having lots of flexibility is actually pretty thin, even for the biggest market teams. The league is structured in a way to disincentivize such behavior. Some franchises do it, most don't. The ones who do haven't shown considerably more success than those like the Sox who try to stay within the bounds of spending.

 

I don't know where this is all going for the next 24 hours, but I do have faith that the FO isn't just throwing everything away for no reason.

[YAZMAN]

How many big pieces gets traded and sign huge extensions? Rarely. The Sox did it with Pedro a long time ago, giving him the biggest contracted ever for a pitcher. Today soon to be FA today won't do it. I also put Lester return to Boston at 50-50.

 

Yeah, well, that was Pedro.

[example1]

One more point--free agency is without a doubt the least efficient way to spend money. It's not really close. With the same amount of money that Lester is going to cost they could have signed Cespedes (36m for 4 years), Abreu (68 for 6 years), AND Puig (42m for 7 years). That's 146m for 17 seasons worth of production. OR they could pay the same amount for 6 years of production at 24 per. Just for a point of reference.

 

The best use of money is probably international FAs (not necessarily Cuban "pros") who will sign for a few hundred thousand. If they are going to be tight fisted on beloved and established guys like Lester I don't expect them to be as frugal with the next wave of Cuban/Dominican/Japanese guys who would have an impact at relatively low cost.

[sk7326]

One more point--free agency is without a doubt the least efficient way to spend money. It's not really close. With the same amount of money that Lester is going to cost they could have signed Cespedes (36m for 4 years), Abreu (68 for 6 years), AND Puig (42m for 7 years). That's 146m for 17 seasons worth of production. OR they could pay the same amount for 6 years of production at 24 per. Just for a point of reference.

 

The best use of money is probably international FAs (not necessarily Cuban "pros") who will sign for a few hundred thousand. If they are going to be tight fisted on beloved and established guys like Lester I don't expect them to be as frugal with the next wave of Cuban/Dominican/Japanese guys who would have an impact at relatively low cost.

 

There is a huge winners curse to free agency - without a doubt. The best use of free agency is to fill a targeted need which you can't source internally - maybe a key bat, something like that. The Cuban signees had considerable risk (and Cespedes is a bit behind the other two although spectacular). Now that being said, starting pitching is one of the areas which is very hard to source if you don't already have it - so there is a market premium on good guys.

 

The best use of money used to be for draft bonuses - but the league scuttled that. The latin FA pool is a source of efficiency but not the depth of the draft pool with a ton of performance variability. I think the worry that this franchise wants to go cheap is warranted - the owners have reps for begin fairly hawkish on the issue of compensating players - which does not fly when you charge the nation the prices or litter the broadcast with ads. Nobody is asking the Sox to spend stupidly - but the market has financial advantages, and the fans are asked more financially than any other set of fans. Those factors require that the team not run itself like the Pirates. Money has its perks - the ability to take on a Mike Lowell in a deal, the ability to resign homegrown guys and not have to make the sort of choices the Twins have to, and the ability to correct mistakes quickly.

[example1]

There is a huge winners curse to free agency - without a doubt. The best use of free agency is to fill a targeted need which you can't source internally - maybe a key bat, something like that. The Cuban signees had considerable risk (and Cespedes is a bit behind the other two although spectacular). Now that being said, starting pitching is one of the areas which is very hard to source if you don't already have it - so there is a market premium on good guys.

 

The best use of money used to be for draft bonuses - but the league scuttled that. The latin FA pool is a source of efficiency but not the depth of the draft pool with a ton of performance variability. I think the worry that this franchise wants to go cheap is warranted - the owners have reps for begin fairly hawkish on the issue of compensating players - which does not fly when you charge the nation the prices or litter the broadcast with ads. Nobody is asking the Sox to spend stupidly - but the market has financial advantages, and the fans are asked more financially than any other set of fans. Those factors require that the team not run itself like the Pirates. Money has its perks - the ability to take on a Mike Lowell in a deal, the ability to resign homegrown guys and not have to make the sort of choices the Twins have to, and the ability to correct mistakes quickly.

 

Has this ownership had a season where they weren't among the most 4-5 expensive teams in baseball? I don't think so. Yes, they should have one of the top payrolls in baseball. And they do. Every year. The issue doesn't seem to be whether they are going to invest like a big market team does. The issue is whether they are going to wrap up most of that investment in a single player or not.

 

Lester is a good pitcher, he's very good. But people are talking about paying him $24m like its nothing. That's so much money for a payroll of 150-180m. It isn't like they are just going to sit on the money and it isn't like Lester is Sandy Koufax or Pedro Martinez (or Clayton Kershaw). The ownership group has proven they will invest, they have proven they can win when they invest. There are more shiny objects to land with the Red Sox and it will probably be sooner than later.

[sk7326]

Has this ownership had a season where they weren't among the most 4-5 expensive teams in baseball? I don't think so. Yes, they should have one of the top payrolls in baseball. And they do. Every year. The issue doesn't seem to be whether they are going to invest like a big market team does. The issue is whether they are going to wrap up most of that investment in a single player or not.

 

Lester is a good pitcher, he's very good. But people are talking about paying him $24m like its nothing. That's so much money for a payroll of 150-180m. It isn't like they are just going to sit on the money and it isn't like Lester is Sandy Koufax or Pedro Martinez (or Clayton Kershaw). The ownership group has proven they will invest, they have proven they can win when they invest. There are more shiny objects to land with the Red Sox and it will probably be sooner than later.

 

I am not even thinking about the shiny baubles so much as the going rate for guys of Lester's ilk - in an industry drowning in cash ... in a market who gets a lot more bang for winning than others. A lot of teams are doing well, so the idea of replacing Lester easily (or Lackey for that manner - legit workhorses) is a bit of a dream. Especially with a lot of cheap controllable position help seemingly here or on the way, the money is there to allocate to the rotation. I do believe 30 year olds are risks on principle. But you have to evaluate individual investments, and Lester's durability changes the calculus significantly here. There was a solid industry comp to Lester to work with (Greinke) if they wanted it. But they've made their choice without an apparent plan B.

[example1]

I am not even thinking about the shiny baubles so much as the going rate for guys of Lester's ilk - in an industry drowning in cash ... in a market who gets a lot more bang for winning than others. A lot of teams are doing well, so the idea of replacing Lester easily (or Lackey for that manner - legit workhorses) is a bit of a dream. Especially with a lot of cheap controllable position help seemingly here or on the way, the money is there to allocate to the rotation. I do believe 30 year olds are risks on principle. But you have to evaluate individual investments, and Lester's durability changes the calculus significantly here. There was a solid industry comp to Lester to work with (Greinke) if they wanted it. But they've made their choice without an apparent plan B.

 

You're right that plan B isn't apparent. In a scenario where they don't have an obvious ace on the team and haven't even traded plan A yet, plan B usually isn't apparent. That doesn't mean it doesn't exist or won't materialize. They will need to pull off a slick combination of trades, FA signings and promotions to field a competitive team but I expect them to be aggressive in getting a few key pieces. They will have all the currency that is needed to make a good baseball team--high end MLB ready prospects (for trading), more high end MLB ready prospects (for key positions), a core of "good enough" prospects (for relief and utility depth), a good number of lottery tickets in the low minors, and payroll flexibility with a $170m budget. You don't invest this much time and money into scouting all ends of the earth for players and building baseball academies if you don't want to build a winning team.

[jad]

Plan? Efficiency? Yes, it's cheaper to field an outfield of Jonny Gomes's than to sign Lester. And you have something left over to field a few league-minimum players as well. That, I suppose, then leaves you the headroom to sign superstars like Steven Drew, Jake Peavy, and support them with those trusty veterans like AJP and Sizemore.

[Bellhorn04]

You're right that plan B isn't apparent. In a scenario where they don't have an obvious ace on the team and haven't even traded plan A yet, plan B usually isn't apparent. That doesn't mean it doesn't exist or won't materialize. They will need to pull off a slick combination of trades, FA signings and promotions to field a competitive team but I expect them to be aggressive in getting a few key pieces. They will have all the currency that is needed to make a good baseball team--high end MLB ready prospects (for trading), more high end MLB ready prospects (for key positions), a core of "good enough" prospects (for relief and utility depth), a good number of lottery tickets in the low minors, and payroll flexibility with a $170m budget. You don't invest this much time and money into scouting all ends of the earth for players and building baseball academies if you don't want to build a winning team.

 

But how do they replace a guy like Lester on the cheap? Can't be done.

 

I don't doubt that a lot of moves are coming. But they are taking a pretty big risk letting Lester go. Could haunt them for the next 3-4 years.

[reYoukilis]

Plan? Efficiency? Yes, it's cheaper to field an outfield of Jonny Gomes's than to sign Lester. And you have something left over to field a few league-minimum players as well. That, I suppose, then leaves you the headroom to sign superstars like Steven Drew, Jake Peavy, and support them with those trusty veterans like AJP and Sizemore.

Im sensing sarcasm here. Im pretty good at detecting it.

 

Seriously though, I agree with Cheringtons low balling things until its the right time but I believe in keeping what has worked in the past too and Lester definitely worked.

[Palodios]

You're moving to Seattle? I hate you.

 

Well, considering that I am two blocks from Fenway Park right now, it will be an adjustment.

[a700hitter]

A’s Acquire Lester, Gomes For Cespedes

By Steve Adams [July 31, 2014 at 8:49am CDT]

 

The Athletics have acquired Jon Lester from the Red Sox, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com (Twitter links). In what will be a blockbuster deal, Jonny Gomes and Yoenis Cespedes will head to Boston.

This is a surprise.

[Behindenemylines]

I can't see the Sox go past 5 years / 25 mil per when Lester goes the route of FA. That might even be to high. I don't think it looks good for him coming back. I hope I'm wrong because aces are hard to come by. An ace who has had success in Boston even harder to come by.

[d-money]

Aces dont grow like trees.Someone needs to tell management that.

[example1]

Aces dont grow like trees.Someone needs to tell management that.

 

The irony is that the ace you are talking about literally grew in their system. They didn't get him by signing him at $25m a year, they developed him from the draft. They do grow, you just need to know where to find them. The Sox believe they have a number of them potentially in their system.

[a700hitter]

The irony is that the ace you are talking about literally grew in their system. They didn't get him by signing him at $25m a year, they developed him from the draft. They do grow, you just need to know where to find them. The Sox believe they have a number of them potentially in their system.

And the last ace to grow in our system was Clemens, so they don't grow here very often.

[SimplyMarie]

At this point I doubt Lester returns. I am not sure what the FO was thinking with the original low ball offer. It's never good to start negotiations by insulting the other party. I'd like to say it's hard to believe they botched this one so badly...but then again....

[seabeachfred]

At this point I doubt Lester returns. I am not sure what the FO was thinking with the original low ball offer. It's never good to start negotiations by insulting the other party. I'd like to say it's hard to believe they botched this one so badly...but then again....

 

Go with it SM----they blew it to hell, the front office did. And we may feel the after effects of this blunder for a number of years unless our young pitchers really develop and step up----and we know we haven't had but two to do that since the 1980s-----Clemens and Lester.

[jacksonianmarch]

I know this is one of those friend of a friend things, but a friend of mine is close friends with a close friend of Lester's. He said he fully intends on returning to Boston and that they have a contract already worked out. They dealt him to maximize the return and allow him to go to the playoffs before returning to Boston. I cannot verify the validity of this story at all, but my buddy is pretty well connected, and I hope he's dead f***ing wrong.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I know this is one of those friend of a friend things, but a friend of mine is close friends with a close friend of Lester's. He said he fully intends on returning to Boston and that they have a contract already worked out. They dealt him to maximize the return and allow him to go to the playoffs before returning to Boston. I cannot verify the validity of this story at all, but my buddy is pretty well connected, and I hope he's dead f***ing wrong.

 

True or not, it certainly makes a lot of sense that they would do that. Trade Lackey, resign Lester, trade for Hamels, and have a pretty filthy 1-2 of Lester-Hamels for 4 years.

[a700hitter]

I know this is one of those friend of a friend things, but a friend of mine is close friends with a close friend of Lester's. He said he fully intends on returning to Boston and that they have a contract already worked out. They dealt him to maximize the return and allow him to go to the playoffs before returning to Boston. I cannot verify the validity of this story at all, but my buddy is pretty well connected, and I hope he's dead f***ing wrong.

First of all Jacko, you are a doctor in the early stages of your career and you have a young family, so basically, you have no buddies anymore. So, do not try to get the hopes up of the weak-minded who will be crushed when he signs elsewhere.

[InfernoOrangeSS]

I know this is one of those friend of a friend things, but a friend of mine is close friends with a close friend of Lester's.

 

I think we only take rumors that are "friend of a friend of someone on another message board". Wait, maybe it was "a friend on another message board who is friends of a friend."

[seabeachfred]

I think we only take rumors that are "friend of a friend of someone on another message board". Wait, maybe it was "a friend on another message board who is friends of a friend."

 

Seems to me I know of one such case where that friend of a friend on that other board told someone that John Lackey demanded a trade away from the Red Sox. Turns out now that is happened to be true. How about that????? Is that what you were talking about? No wonder you guys get the s*** kicked out of you in the Civil War, but then as an unreconstructed Yankee I carry a picture of Lincoln and General Sherman in my wallet. LOL. Hey, I don't think Jacko's missive is true but I sure wish it is.

[InfernoOrangeSS]

No wonder you guys get the s*** kicked out of you in the Civil War, but then as an unreconstructed Yankee I carry a picture of Lincoln and General Sherman in my wallet. LOL.

 

The Civil War was long ago. No need to refer to it like you fought in it.

 

Calm down it was a joke on your post. I've still not seen where Lackey "demanded" a trade.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Seems to me I know of one such case where that friend of a friend on that other board told someone that John Lackey demanded a trade away from the Red Sox. Turns out now that is happened to be true. How about that????? Is that what you were talking about? No wonder you guys get the s*** kicked out of you in the Civil War, but then as an unreconstructed Yankee I carry a picture of Lincoln and General Sherman in my wallet. LOL. Hey, I don't think Jacko's missive is true but I sure wish it is.

 

I had heard this as well, and finally found the tweet.

 

 

Supports what the friend of a friend told you, as well.

 

Lets hope this whole "friend of a friend" thing holds true with the Red Sox. Honestly, it makes entirely too much sense for it not to hold true, but you never know.