Let's assume the opening day lineup

[DirtDog]

The Red Sox scored the most runs in the majors last year. But lets trade all our pitching prospects for Matt Kemp and Giancarlo Stanton!

[marklmw]

The Red Sox scored the most runs in the majors last year. But lets trade all our pitching prospects for Matt Kemp and Giancarlo Stanton!

Man's nature is to hoard and over-stock ... you should see my wife's closet. You make a good point but there is something called opportunity cost as well. A Kemp or Stanton can help the club long term if either one stays healthy.

I doubt we would ever trade all of our pitching prospects but we can trade some of them. It is a crap shot which ones will succeed at the MLB level but our FO may have an idea of which ones they want to hold onto. We can also include a Cecchini, Swihart in any deal for Stanton. (I would give up more for Stanton than Kemp and would only go after Stanton if their was an agreement that he would extend long term ... much like AGon) IMO ... if we just sit pat on what we have today ... pick up a quality utility guy for the infield ... we will be fine. The more pitching prospects that we have the more likely 2 or 3 can work out long term.

Edited December 9, 2013 by marklmw

[sk7326]

The Red Sox scored the most runs in the majors last year. But lets trade all our pitching prospects for Matt Kemp and Giancarlo Stanton!

 

LOL ... nothing wrong with being opportunistic. Here is the reality. Not all of: Cecchini, Webster, Barnes, Swihart, Ball, Betts, Owens are going to be future studs. Xander was the one uberprospect they had once they discovered he might not be ticketed for 3B after all ... everybody else has at least some sort of question mark between upside and probability. There are some future starters in the rest of this crew (and some better than that), but there is also some excellent currency if a really good opportunity shows up. You don't blow you wad, but the Sox have the prospects to put their ear to the ground and see if an interesting trade prospect appears.

[marklmw]

LOL ... nothing wrong with being opportunistic. Here is the reality. Not all of: Cecchini, Webster, Barnes, Swihart, Ball, Betts, Owens are going to be future studs. Xander was the one uberprospect they had once they discovered he might not be ticketed for 3B after all ... everybody else has at least some sort of question mark between upside and probability. There are some future starters in the rest of this crew (and some better than that), but there is also some excellent currency if a really good opportunity shows up. You don't blow you wad, but the Sox have the prospects to put their ear to the ground and see if an interesting trade prospect appears.

 

Exactly ... never hurts to explore opportunities to make your team better in the short and long term. Besides the fact that if we do not sign Drew we will have 4 top picks in the first 2 rounds.

[Palodios]

Depth pushes young starters too. Guarantee a guy a spot like Doubront and he gets fat.

[marklmw]

Depth pushes young starters too. Guarantee a guy a spot like Doubront and he gets fat.

Are you calling Doubront fat?

[mvp 78]

Are you calling Doubront fat?

 

He has been in recent memory. There are several articles written about him being out of shape in ST.

[sk7326]

Depth pushes young starters too. Guarantee a guy a spot like Doubront and he gets fat.

 

Well then don't guarantee a guy like him that spot. Depth is crucial - but the Red Sox have several months and a lot of prospect inventory to solve the issues.

[seabeachfred]

Man's nature is to hoard and over-stock ... you should see my wife's closet. You make a good point but there is something called opportunity cost as well. A Kemp or Stanton can help the club long term if either one stays healthy.

I doubt we would ever trade all of our pitching prospects but we can trade some of them. It is a crap shot which ones will succeed at the MLB level but our FO may have an idea of which ones they want to hold onto. We can also include a Cecchini, Swihart is any deal for Stanton. (I would give up more for Stanton than Kemp and would only go after Stanton if their was an agreement that he would extend long term ... much like AGon) IMO ... if we just sit pat on what we have today ... pick up a quality utility guy for the infield ... we will be fine. The more pitching prospects that we have the more likely 2 or 3 can work out long term.

 

Reading the Los Angeles Times this morning there was a story about Matt Kemp and is agent, former star pitcher Dave Stewart. In that article Kemp made it clear he did NOT want to leave LA and even encouragement by Stewart that such a change of venue might be in his best interest, the Dodger still seemed disinterested. When you take that attitude and combine it with a recent shoulder operation (reduces power---see Gonzalez), a even more recent ankle operation (reduces speed), and hamstrings that have given him trouble his whole career with tightness and pulled ones, what you have is a guy with tremendous talent but total injury prone in a number of critical areas. I know if he gets fully recovered he could be a machine but his last two years have been anything but that and so I wonder do we want another redux of Carl Crawford with a little more power? I think Ben has to tread very lightly on this and then trudge on down to the bar and have a stiff one before showing the courage necessary to move away from this.

[marklmw]

Reading the Los Angeles Times this morning there was a story about Matt Kemp and is agent, former star pitcher Dave Stewart. In that article Kemp made it clear he did NOT want to leave LA and even encouragement by Stewart that such a change of venue might be in his best interest, the Dodger still seemed disinterested. When you take that attitude and combine it with a recent shoulder operation (reduces power---see Gonzalez), a even more recent ankle operation (reduces speed), and hamstrings that have given him trouble his whole career with tightness and pulled ones, what you have is a guy with tremendous talent but total injury prone in a number of critical areas. I know if he gets fully recovered he could be a machine but his last two years have been anything but that and so I wonder do we want another redux of Carl Crawford with a little more power? I think Ben has to tread very lightly on this and then trudge on down to the bar and have a stiff one before showing the courage necessary to move away from this.

Well Fred ... who would you rather add to the Sox line-up: Kemp or Stanton? Stanton would be my choice and you can probably sign him to an extension at a discount.

[SoxSport]

Kemp's contract is very un-Red Sox these days. Plus his injuries make him an unnecessary risk.

 

Drew is still a possibility to fortify the left side of the IF, or somebody else. It's a wonder the Yankees aren't interested in Drew, but getting Jeter to move to 2B or 3B is a real predicament. He likely wishes to retire a SS. I would not, however, be surprised if they bid up Drew, considering his agent has been made rich by the Yankees over the years.

[dupree]

Fred, i was just wondering if you had thought about the possibility of the local paper doing just like any other local paper when one of their star players is being mentioned about being traded away and to show that the player wants to stay and wishes to be apart of that team to save face with the community of the town he has known for the last few years before being traded away? I see it as a good PR move on any players part to do that before an impending trade.

[seabeachfred]

Well Fred ... who would you rather add to the Sox line-up: Kemp or Stanton? Stanton would be my choice and you can probably sign him to an extension at a discount.

 

Your choice would be my choice. Younger and less injuries---but he would have to agree to an extension. No extension, no Stanton. He had some injuries last season but has been healthier by a long shot than Kemp has. I think he would also love to play for a winner. Kemp is already playing for a winning team and loves LA. We get more out of Stanton. Having said that, if worse comes to worse and we get Kemp, I hope it doesn't cost us three or four of our best products. And, yes, he would then be one of ours and I would root my ass off for him.

[seabeachfred]

Fred, i was just wondering if you had thought about the possibility of the local paper doing just like any other local paper when one of their star players is being mentioned about being traded away and to show that the player wants to stay and wishes to be apart of that team to save face with the community of the town he has known for the last few years before being traded away? I see it as a good PR move on any players part to do that before an impending trade.

 

Well put my friend, and, yes, the idea crossed my mind as soon as I finished reading that story. But baseball is a business too and I know how Kemp loves LA, and he has been treated very well by the fans through his injuries and times when he didn't go all out. In Boston he would be treated well until he started going half ass and loafing about. He would then become another Crawford and start saying to himself that he wished he never came here. He is no Pedroia, or a Papi, a Napoli or a Victorino. I doubt he is even a Bogaerts. However, I would suggest you read up on him and form your own opinion. I do not like the Dodgers any more than I like the Yankees, and there certainly is a bit of bias in my opinions, but in this case I think I have an ax to grind.

 

My friends on the other Red So boards argued for years which WS winner was their favorite----2004 or 2007. Because most were long suffering fans, the vast majority said 2004. I like the 2007 team like no other team I ever followed either here or when I was a kid. However, this year's team has supplanted 2007 as my favorite and by quite a bit. Last to first and then all the way to the top with a WS win. Our team this season was a united and together as any team could be and I want to keep that unity of purpose and chemistry together. I think if we get a couple of the wrong types it could shake that camaraderie. I think Kemp would be a bad mix for the reasons I've said all along. However, if we do get him, much to my chagrin, I will root like hell for him every time he comes to bat or takes the field. I'd have to....he would be one of us.

[dupree]

What if Boston stays in LA for a trade partner but instead of the Dodgers they make a trade with the Angels? Lets say that Ben and Company go after Mark Trumbo instead of Matt Kemp. Trumbo could play LF, be a power bat from the right side, younger, healthier, and after Napoli's deal is up move Trumbo to 1B that will be after the 2015 season they can make a run for Stanton. LAA save stated that they will move Trumbo. And they need and want young pitching prospects and deal could get done there if the market is right.

[SoxFanForsyth]

As of today, although I think the Sox pick up Drew. But until then...

 

Vs RHP

1. Victorino

2. Nava

3. Pedroia

4. Ortiz

5. Napoli

6. Bogaerts

7. Pierzynski

8. Middlebrooks

9. Bradley

 

Vs. LHP:

 

1. Victorino

2. Bogaerts

3. Pedroia

4. Ortiz

5. Napoli

6. Gomes

7. Middlebrooks

8. Ross

9. Bradley

 

These lineups will score a lot of runs

[User Name]

And prevent a lot of them too.

[marklmw]

As of today, although I think the Sox pick up Drew. But until then...

 

Vs RHP

1. Victorino

2. Nava

3. Pedroia

4. Ortiz

5. Napoli

6. Bogaerts

7. Pierzynski

8. Middlebrooks

9. Bradley

 

Vs. LHP:

 

1. Victorino

2. Bogaerts

3. Pedroia

4. Ortiz

5. Napoli

6. Gomes

7. Middlebrooks

8. Ross

9. Bradley

 

These lineups will score a lot of runs

 

I don't get it ... why would we spend the money on Drew it may limit our options to sign a real impact player.

[Spitball]

I don't get it ... why would we spend the money on Drew it may limit our options to sign a real impact player.

 

I think Drew may find it difficult to find a decent contract proposal since the Sox made him a qualifying offer. He may have to come crawling back with no other options.

[seabeachfred]

What if Boston stays in LA for a trade partner but instead of the Dodgers they make a trade with the Angels? Lets say that Ben and Company go after Mark Trumbo instead of Matt Kemp. Trumbo could play LF, be a power bat from the right side, younger, healthier, and after Napoli's deal is up move Trumbo to 1B that will be after the 2015 season they can make a run for Stanton. LAA save stated that they will move Trumbo. And they need and want young pitching prospects and deal could get done there if the market is right.

 

That might be better for us Dupree but keep in mind the Angels are fiddle faddling around and going from one extreme to another and what they're looking for is experienced pitching they can use NEXT season when they hope to do what the Red Sox did this year, and right now you hear one story from them one day and another the next. They even came out today in an article and said if they can't get the pitching they need they may just have to slug their way to a title, something I find to be totally ridiculous. No one slugs themselves to a WS Title. You better have the pitching or you're s*** on a roll. In addition to that, with Napoli back on first a trade for Trumbo would put both Gomes and Nava on the bench and those two were very productive players for us this season and perfect compliments on a team that was unified as any I can remember. Of course, they could bench Jackie and move Trumbo to right and Vic to center, but how that would work I don't know.

 

Frankly, I'm not sure what else to tell you my friend but that I like this team we had this season so much that I would like to keep most of them together because I think right now we are about good to go as is. I'm sure if Trumbo is offered to us we'd be interested but it would cost either Nava-Gomes or Bradley their jobs and I don't really want that. Boy, you really twisted me around on that one.

[seabeachfred]

As of today, although I think the Sox pick up Drew. But until then...

 

Vs RHP

1. Victorino

2. Nava

3. Pedroia

4. Ortiz

5. Napoli

6. Bogaerts

7. Pierzynski

8. Middlebrooks

9. Bradley

 

Vs. LHP:

 

1. Victorino

2. Bogaerts

3. Pedroia

4. Ortiz

5. Napoli

6. Gomes

7. Middlebrooks

8. Ross

9. Bradley

 

These lineups will score a lot of runs

 

I could live quite well with that. We have hitting, power, some speed and good defense with that group. Remember how I was howling last week about what we weren't doing? Well we got a solid reliever, we resigned Napoli to play first and I'm sure Ben will do what's needed to get an outfielder who could spell JBjr when he needs a breather or we face a tough left hander, but I think this team is good to go. Get another utility IF who bats lefty and that OF who bats righty and we're set. Now that is only my opinion but I like the team we have right now.

[SoxSport]

Agreed about Trumbo. Not strong defensively in the OF for their needs. RHd power for DH or 1B, where Nap resides. Not a great fit.

[BornToRun]

Agreed about Trumbo. Not strong defensively in the OF for their needs. RHd power for DH or 1B, where Nap resides. Not a great fit.

Not to mention a complete inability to comprehend the idea behind taking a base on balls.

[iortiz]

As of today, although I think the Sox pick up Drew. But until then...

 

Vs RHP

1. Victorino

2. Nava

3. Pedroia

4. Ortiz

5. Napoli

6. Bogaerts

7. Pierzynski

8. Middlebrooks

9. Bradley

 

Vs. LHP:

 

1. Victorino

2. Bogaerts

3. Pedroia

4. Ortiz

5. Napoli

6. Gomes

7. Middlebrooks

8. Ross

9. Bradley

 

These lineups will score a lot of runs

 

Asaide AJ, this is the Lup I was expecting this offseason. I don't expect other major move. They are going to use this year to value their young talent. Probably this Lup won't be the best O in baseball again, but we will be fine I guess. What we need is that our rotation at least post last year numbers. The BP will be the best part of the team if they stay healthy. I expect a 89-91 W team as assembled. We'll see.

[dupree]

Asaide AJ, this is the Lup I was expecting this offseason. I don't expect other major move. They are going to use this year to value their young talent. Probably this Lup won't be the best O in baseball again, but we will be fine I guess. What we need is that our rotation at least post last year numbers. The BP will be the best part of the team if they stay healthy. I expect a 89-91 W team as assembled. We'll see.

If thats all the wins we get next year then i dont see an 89-91 team making the playoffs.

[User Name]

Asaide AJ, this is the Lup I was expecting this offseason. I don't expect other major move. They are going to use this year to value their young talent. Probably this Lup won't be the best O in baseball again, but we will be fine I guess. What we need is that our rotation at least post last year numbers. The BP will be the best part of the team if they stay healthy. I expect a 89-91 W team as assembled. We'll see.

 

Unlikely. What they're losing on offense, they will make up with a full year of Peavy, and barring a catastrophe like the injuries to Bailey/Hanrahan, an improved bullpen. Try a little positivity for once.

[RedSoxNC84]

Unlikely. What they're losing on offense, they will make up with a full year of Peavy, and barring a catastrophe like the injuries to Bailey/Hanrahan, an improved bullpen. Try a little positivity for once.

 

I don't fully get the hate on Peavy. He's a solid pitcher and will be a really good 3rd or 4th starter. As far as I can tell the only thing the Sox lineup is losing on offense is a little OBP and speed. They've added more pop to it with AJ. Defense is an upgrade so far. Unless JBJ falls apart, I think this is going to be a solid team this year.

[User Name]

Even if he does fall apart, they'll probably put a decent enough platoon option right behind him. Edited December 11, 2013 by User Name?

[sk7326]

In 2012, this team, with B+ level injury luck ... was the best team in the game from wire to wire basically. If you evaluate the lineup changes in the offseason by position (my guess with some caveats):

 

LF: Same-maybe a shade lower (Nava is a regression candidate, Gomes a positive regression one, both should not be big deals)

CF: Lower (although Bradley's on-base skills could REALLY help here)

RF: Same-shade lower (age-related regression, though if the power spike coming from quitting hitting lefty is real it's a different player we are evaluating)

3B: Higher (Bogaerts or Middlebrooks for the full season will be fine)

SS: Higher (Bogaerts or Drew, former has more ceiling although latter is just fine)

2B: Higher (figure the injury healing will enable the power to return in earnest)

1B: Same (Napoli I expect a similar season, Carp is a regression candidate perhaps)

C: Slightly Lower (Pierzynski's age and on-base skills a dropoff, Ross is Ross)

DH: Same (Papi has to show me the regression first)

 

To the pitching staff:

 

Lackey, Peavy, Dempster have some age-based regression possible ... at the same time Peavy should be better than he was at the end of last season. Lester is one of the surest things in the game and Buchholz we can rattle off the wide range of outcomes. That said, overall this rotation is good and if they make 144 of 162 starts like they did last year - the rotation will be a strength.

 

Bullpen - Breslow is a prime regression candidate. To be fair Uehara is too only because that level of achievement is impossible to expect. That said, Workman, Britton, De La Rosa, Tazawa all have reasons to expect improvement or continued solid performance. The new guys are all solid adds, and Cherington will keep adding more bodies because that is the best approach to take to the bullpen.

 

I think looking at the breakdown, if a legitimately good LF option showed up, they'd really have to look at it. Otherwise, the positions are in decent shape. The bullpen is always worth adding arms - and the rotation while it lacks a true #1 (although Lester did a pretty good job as such in the playoffs) is rich in #2/#3 sort of guys, and you can (and have) win a title that way.

[Bellhorn04]

In 2012, this team, with B+ level injury luck ... was the best team in the game from wire to wire basically.

 

2012? The starting pitching was historically atrocious. Buchholz had the best ERA of the starters at 4.56.