Let's assume the opening day lineup

[SoxSport]

You'll have to hold that lineup, because the FO is still having wet dreams about Drew. This is a Boras guy with "overpay" marked on his forehead. Plus a potential block for X or Middlebrooks in a season where there is zero pressure for them to win a championship again. The situation has to break just right for a team to win it all, and it almost never happens again for at least a few years--no matter what the team does.

 

Drew on this team is infield insurance--at one position. In case X has problems at SS (doubt it--great athlete), or Middlebrooks doesn't hit (patience--sophomore slumps are common). One thing he should not be is a starter who blocks either of the two other guys. Both are RHd power hitters critical to the lineup. I say better to sign a good field, no hit guy cheap who can play SS and other positions. Drew was largely a no hit guy the first half last year--fortunately he came alive the 2nd half, but didn't hit much in the playoffs while playing good defense.

 

Media rumors at this time should be taken with a grain of salt--but I hope they haven't offered this guy a multi-year deal. It might screw up the left side of the IF more than strengthen it. You sign him for one year at reduced money if nobody else wants him on Boras terms. As insurance.

[Palodios]

Drew on this team is infield insurance--at one position. In case X has problems at SS (doubt it--great athlete), or Middlebrooks doesn't hit (patience--sophomore slumps are common)..

 

There is enough versatility there that his value is well beyond SS. If Drew gets hurt, XB sticks at SS, Middlebrooks at 3B. If Pedroia gets hurt, Drew or X moves over to 2B. If Middlebrooks gets hurt, XB to 3B, Drew at SS. If Napoli gets hurt, move WMB to 1B, XB to 3B. Some guys will have to play slightly out of position, but there will be plenty of options.

[marklmw]

There is enough versatility there that his value is well beyond SS. If Drew gets hurt, XB sticks at SS, Middlebrooks at 3B. If Pedroia gets hurt, Drew or X moves over to 2B. If Middlebrooks gets hurt, XB to 3B, Drew at SS. If Napoli gets hurt, move WMB to 1B, XB to 3B. Some guys will have to play slightly out of position, but there will be plenty of options.

 

No doubt ... agree completely ... nice to have an extra infielder but does it need to be Drew. Signing Drew means that WMB starts the season on the bench does it not. Will Drew sign as a bench player? ... I don't think so ... Again, love to have Drew as a back-up but not a starter over WMB. Furthermore, I would rather do a deal for Kemp assuming a cost of 15-16M per over 6 years than sign Drew at a cost of 10M. Kemp minus Gomes = 10M in 2014.

Edited December 12, 2013 by marklmw

[dupree]

Dupree needs to bring it back a little ... 20 - 30 is more like it. No Davis or Cabrerra in our line-up. But Bogaerts, WMB, Papi the Big, Napoli, Kemp,

Agreed 20 - 30 hr power for 6 players and 15 - 20 hr power for the other 3 bats is ridiculous. That would be the scariest lineup in baseball. Pitchers would be asking for a day off or skipped in the rotation so they would miss the Sox series.

[marklmw]

Agreed 20 - 30 hr power for 6 players and 15 - 20 hr power for the other 3 bats is ridiculous. That would be the scariest lineup in baseball. Pitchers would be asking for a day off or skipped in the rotation so they would miss the Sox series.

Dupree ... I think that only you and I would welcome Kemp. For me I am not limited to Kemp. If I had a choice between Kemp and Tanaka I would take Tanaka. I would like the Sox to add one impact player this off season to compensate for the loss of Ellsbury. The LT is 189M in 2014 ... I am curious where we are right now. If the goal is to stay under and we do acquire Kemp we can hopefully shed 5M on Gomes and 10-13M on Dempster. Approximately the amount equal to Kemp.

[dupree]

Dupree ... I think that only you and I would welcome Kemp. For me I am not limited to Kemp. If I had a choice between Kemp and Tanaka I would take Tanaka. I would like the Sox to add one impact player this off season to compensate for the loss of Ellsbury. The LT is 189M in 2014 ... I am curious where we are right now. If the goal is to stay under and we do acquire Kemp we can hopefully shed 5M on Gomes and 10-13M on Dempster. Approximately the amount equal to Kemp.

Mark i agree with you on a lot of things and enjoy reading your post. But I think most posters on this site would love to have Kemp in this lineup. But most are scared about his health and losing high ranking prospects. I think it is a good move to wait to see how healthy he is. But then more teams will be in on him when he is moved. Thats why I said to get him now and not wait until ST to save maybe on a prospect only being 4 players instead of 5 going to LA.

 

As far as Tanaka goes i have to disagree with you. Im not a fan of signing him. He has proved nothing in MLB and he is gonna cost a ton so may teams want him he is gonna be too pricey. We have kids in the minors that we have put time and effort in to develop and i would rather have them on the mound than have Tanaka but thats just me.

 

As far as making a splash after losing Ellsbury for an impact player. I agree we need an impact player to play LF and if he is a high cost guy we need a person that can move to 1B in the future. But just to make a splash because Ells left is not the right thinking. Only way Ells was gonna stay is if the Red Sox matched an offer from another team. I think its hilarious that the NYY signed him and they havent addressed any of the needs that win championships. The pitching staff is their biggest hole. And as always in NY they rely on the long ball. The sox will have a lot of guys who can hit the long ball too but be good at defense and have a deep pitching staff. I see them finishing 4th in the AL east as it stands now in front of the Jays.

 

Also i hope Dempster is moved but he will probably be here as much as i hate it. And i say no on letting Gomes go. He is $ in the playoffs, keeps the guys loose all year and is worth everybit of the 5mil they are paying him this year.

[Bellhorn04]

The thing about Kemp-and I'm certainly not the first to point this out-is that the types of injuries he has had are the types that have an increased likelihood of being recurring problems. Edited December 12, 2013 by Bellhorn04

[sk7326]

The thing about Kemp is-and I'm certainly not the first to point this out-is that the types of injuries he has had are the types that have an increased likelihood of being recurring problems.

 

This is the kicker for me. This is not Jacoby Ellsbury having freak accidents running into things (and people). Kemp has suffered from 2 years of "old guy" sort of injuries which have a high likelihood of being chronic things. He already has to be downgraded a little because he has to play a corner to preserve his legs. I think the Dodgers are dreaming if they think they can get a premium haul for him, even if they eat half of the contract.

[User Name]

They really aren't dreaming. They are subscribing to the "one dumb owner" theory, and that's usually a good gamble to take.

[Spudboy]

tell me that when there is a man on 3rd with less than 2 outs.

 

Tell me how many times Napoli was confronted with this situation. A K is just another out. It just seems to be more dramatic and disappointing. This is why people key on it and remember them so much better.

[sk7326]

They really aren't dreaming. They are subscribing to the "one dumb owner" theory, and that's usually a good gamble to take.

 

I am sure there is one - although whether that one will part with a Bogaerts, or Oscar Tavares level guy is dicier. Maybe Seattle given its moves is that one team - which I wouldn't discount. Texas in theory lines up - but Daniels has generally been a lot smarter than that.

 

Right now, I don't think they could trade Kemp for anything other than salary relief. Yes, there is a level of salary they can pick up where the return would officially be "something" other than just savings. But to me that threshhold is pretty high.

[marklmw]

I am sure there is one - although whether that one will part with a Bogaerts, or Oscar Tavares level guy is dicier. Maybe Seattle given its moves is that one team - which I wouldn't discount. Texas in theory lines up - but Daniels has generally been a lot smarter than that.

 

Right now, I don't think they could trade Kemp for anything other than salary relief. Yes, there is a level of salary they can pick up where the return would officially be "something" other than just savings. But to me that threshhold is pretty high.

 

Dupree is clearly wrong about members of this forum wanting Kemp ... the desire for Kemp here is non existent and I can understand why. To clarify my position I will say that I never would agree to sending a top prospect to LA for Kemp. Also, that it would cost the Sox no more than 15M per over the 6 remaining years. These are two fairly firm qualifiers. We will need to eventually replace the power bats of Nap's and Papi but it just might not happen this off season. I have read nothing but good things about Cecchini and if they are true he might just become our next long term 3B. We will have the flexibility to move WMB to LF in 2015 should Cecchini progress well in 2014. Nap's is here for 2 years but WMB is good enough an athlete that we can keep him at LF or move him to 1B to make way for a LF. At the end of the day whoever the FA is that player comes with one thing or another than makes him less than perfect. Maybe I am being unrealistic that Kemp can stay healthy going forward. Another thing is that Kemp wants to stay in LA ... if there were questions about his attitude at a place he loves playing it may not be such a good idea to bring him to a place that he would prefer not to be.

[sk7326]

Dupree is clearly wrong about members of this forum wanting Kemp ... the desire for Kemp here is non existent and I can understand why. To clarify my position I will say that I never would agree to sending a top prospect to LA for Kemp. Also, that it would cost the Sox no more than 15M per over the 6 remaining years. These are two fairly firm qualifiers. We will need to eventually replace the power bats of Nap's and Papi but it just might not happen this off season. I have read nothing but good things about Cecchini and if they are true he might just become our next long term 3B. We will have the flexibility to move WMB to LF in 2015 should Cecchini progress well in 2014. Nap's is here for 2 years but WMB is good enough an athlete that we can keep him at LF or move him to 1B to make way for a LF. At the end of the day whoever the FA is that player comes with one thing or another than makes him less than perfect. Maybe I am being unrealistic that Kemp can stay healthy going forward. Another thing is that Kemp wants to stay in LA ... if there were questions about his attitude at a place he loves playing it may not be such a good idea to bring him to a place that he would prefer not to be.

 

What is odd is that I don't see the issue with interpretation. Kemp is a Top 5 player - when healthy, as a CF. Both of those things are in peril. As such, you have to downgrade him. If you had any sort of solid probability that the Top 5 Kemp is likely for the next 2 or 3 years even, I'd back the truck up with the Cecchini's etc. But I am very pessimistic about that.

 

I'd love to have Kemp roaming LF for us. His bat and a decreased outfield responsibility with reasonable health means we'd have the best outfield in the league possibly. But the probability of him achieving that is not at all a slam dunk, and it would be way too expensive for us to find out.

[marklmw]

What is odd is that I don't see the issue with interpretation. Kemp is a Top 5 player - when healthy, as a CF. Both of those things are in peril. As such, you have to downgrade him. If you had any sort of solid probability that the Top 5 Kemp is likely for the next 2 or 3 years even, I'd back the truck up with the Cecchini's etc. But I am very pessimistic about that.

 

I'd love to have Kemp roaming LF for us. His bat and a decreased outfield responsibility with reasonable health means we'd have the best outfield in the league possibly. But the probability of him achieving that is not at all a slam dunk, and it would be way too expensive for us to find out.

 

There is no certainty in baseball and players with history of injuries cannot be counted on. What makes Kemp so darn attractive is that we have seen him at his best and his best is pretty darn good. I would not part with Cecchini however, I think that I made myself clear about that. Cecchini is the type of player that should his power increase he can become a Trout lite. I remember the days when Cabrera was referred to as a Pujols lite.

[win red sox]

There is no certainty in baseball and players with history of injuries cannot be counted on. What makes Kemp so darn attractive is that we have seen him at his best and his best is pretty darn good. I would not part with Cecchini however, I think that I made myself clear about that. Cecchini is the type of player that should his power increase he can become a Trout lite. I remember the days when Cabrera was referred to as a Pujols lite.

 

not that this is relevant, but I could see Cecchini in LF come opening day 2015.

[marklmw]

not that this is relevant, but I could see Cecchini in LF come opening day 2015.

Me too!

[Jaddy]

I would love kemp if we got him for what dupree seems to expect, which is far as I can tell his dempster, a dumpster, and maybe gomes or some long shot prospect. Fact is theyre gonna want one of our big league ready kids (JBJr, or WMB) or else a high level prospect (Cecchini, or Owens or another top starter type). I don't think its worth swapping out one of the guys in our lineup for him or losing young MLB quality pitching depth. JBJr and WMB have question marks but so doesn't Kemp. If we could get him for little to no cost and just plug him into left field and let Nava be the 4th OF I think some team would have already pulled the trigger....

[marklmw]

I would love kemp if we got him for what dupree seems to expect, which is far as I can tell his dempster, a dumpster, and maybe gomes or some long shot prospect. Fact is theyre gonna want one of our big league ready kids (JBJr, or WMB) or else a high level prospect (Cecchini, or Owens or another top starter type). I don't think its worth swapping out one of the guys in our lineup for him or losing young MLB quality pitching depth. JBJr and WMB have question marks but so doesn't Kemp. If we could get him for little to no cost and just plug him into left field and let Nava be the 4th OF I think some team would have already pulled the trigger....

There are needs and there are luxury ... Kemp to the Sox is a luxury, Kemp to another club very well meet a need. Why trade a 30 HR guy in WMB at 500K per year for a 30 HR guy in Kemp at 15M per year?

[seabeachfred]

You'll have to hold that lineup, because the FO is still having wet dreams about Drew. This is a Boras guy with "overpay" marked on his forehead. Plus a potential block for X or Middlebrooks in a season where there is zero pressure for them to win a championship again. The situation has to break just right for a team to win it all, and it almost never happens again for at least a few years--no matter what the team does.

 

Drew on this team is infield insurance--at one position. In case X has problems at SS (doubt it--great athlete), or Middlebrooks doesn't hit (patience--sophomore slumps are common). One thing he should not be is a starter who blocks either of the two other guys. Both are RHd power hitters critical to the lineup. I say better to sign a good field, no hit guy cheap who can play SS and other positions. Drew was largely a no hit guy the first half last year--fortunately he came alive the 2nd half, but didn't hit much in the playoffs while playing good defense.

 

Media rumors at this time should be taken with a grain of salt--but I hope they haven't offered this guy a multi-year deal. It might screw up the left side of the IF more than strengthen it. You sign him for one year at reduced money if nobody else wants him on Boras terms. As insurance.

 

Well said my friend, and I couldn't agree with you more. Farrell seems to have as big a wet dream for Drew as Francona had for Varitek even when Jason was falling apart at the seems after May or June of his last four years with the team. Waiting on Drew is totally ridiculous because it is a block job for either Bogey or WMB, and woe if either should go into a slump and be replaced. You'd have a revolving door on the left side of the infield all season and everyone would suffer and most likely have ruffled feathers. Let Drew and his Yankee fan agent get whatever they can get elsewhere. All this talk about WMB's deficiencies. Well we saw some of Drew's deficiencies in the Playoffs---sensational fielder but a vacant bat, and we all know he has miserable splits against LH pitchers and he's no threat to hit 25-30 homers as X and WMB are. Let Drew go and stop dreaming about Matt Kemp. We need to get ready for 2014 and not have a bunch of loose ends crippling us. We are ready to go as soon as we get a UTILITY infielder who will not block X and WMB and a RH outfielder to can serve as a backup to JBJ.

[Jaddy]

lol that's what I'm saying! And I wouldn't call either of them 30 HR guys at this point.

[win red sox]

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats 2h

Speculation but it seems to be shaping up along the lines of: Dempster traded for salary relief, Sox re-sign Drew, WMB to MIA for Nicolino.

 

Take it as whats its worth.

[marklmw]

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats 2h

Speculation but it seems to be shaping up along the lines of: Dempster traded for salary relief, Sox re-sign Drew, WMB to MIA for Nicolino.

 

Take it as whats its worth.

I looked up Nicolino ... not a chance in hell do the Sox trade WMB for this guy. We have 5 pitchers in the minors who are better prospects.

[reYoukilis]

I'm for Drew at SS (pending a reasonable price of course), Bogaerts at 3rd, and trading Middlebrooks for pitching. And no Kemp

[Jaddy]

Rather we keep WMB but if Ben thinks another big lefty in the pipeline is the better option then who am I to question that? We would certainly be alright with Drew and X on the left side and it would likely speak more to Cecchini than the Brooks.

[seabeachfred]

Sorry to hear that guys. It does seem that Cherington does not want to leave well enough alone. I would much rather have WMB than Drew and I would bet other teams would too. Because it would cost a team a first round draft choice if they signed Drew teams are running to the hills from him. A first rounder is no guarantee that person is going to make it to the Bigs and yet there is no market for Drew. In other words no other team wants him for that price so he comes crawling back to the Red Sox for what, a one year parachute offer, or do they seriously intend to sign him up long term? I have no choice in the matter and will have to root for Stephen if he is signed but I think this trade stinks. Nicolino, from what I've heard, is a combination of Morales of the present and Delcarmen of the past and for possibly trading Will I think we should be able to do a helluva lot better than the likes of him.

[Bellhorn04]

Speculation also had us tendering Bailey, remember? That Middlebrooks trade doesn't sound right. The rest is stuff that we've all been discussing.

[sk7326]

I looked up Nicolino ... not a chance in hell do the Sox trade WMB for this guy. We have 5 pitchers in the minors who are better prospects.

 

#62 on Keith Law's 2013 Top 100 http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8878129/mlb-top-100-prospects-2013-nos-51-75

 

If you don't like Nicolino, you see a lefty with an average fastball and breaking ball, better changeup and no projection, making him a back-end finesse guy. If you like him, you see shades of Cole Hamels with a potential out pitch in the change and feel for pitching well beyond his age.

 

The Hamels comparison comes up a lot because of the changeup and the lack of a big fastball, with Nicolino sitting at 88-92 and unlikely to move up more than a mile or two an hour from that. He has an average breaking ball, but the changeup is the separator. It's really a silly pitch, with great deception so that it looks just like the fastball coming out of that slot just under three-quarter, with a little late fade to finish off hitters who weren't fooled by the release. He pounds the zone with all three pitches, walking just 21 of 494 batters faced in the Midwest League while still missing bats.

 

I don't think Nicolino becomes an ace like Hamels -- if I did, I'd have him rated higher -- but I do think he becomes an above-average starter because he has so many positives, including a legitimate out pitch, in his favor.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, that sounds a little more positive than what the Talksox scouts have said.

[SoxSport]

Trading Middlebrooks at this point would be stupid. They aren't stupid. Patience. The 2nd year is frequently a downer for good players.

They talk about wanting RHd power--heck they got two in X and MBrooks. And protected. Hold onto those guys for dear life.

[marklmw]

Speculation also had us tendering Bailey, remember? That Middlebrooks trade doesn't sound right. The rest is stuff that we've all been discussing.

 

Yeah, WMB isn't going anywhere and certainly not for a #62 prospect. I would deal Gomes and put WBM in left before I would trade him. The problem with signing Drew even for 2 years is that it undermines Bogaerts. It is standard operating procedure to move a SS to 3B as the player ages but moving Xander back to SS after playing 3B for 1-3 years is a different story. Drew imo would be a negative signing.