Let's assume the opening day lineup

[SoxSport]

Lineup probably accurate, but Farrell says Pedey will bat 2nd, Papi 3rd. I figure Nap cleanup.

If Bradley hits, he will move up the chain. He and X could improve lineup vs last year if they hit.

Plus a healthy Pedey should show some power again.

[sk7326]

2012? The starting pitching was historically atrocious. Buchholz had the best ERA of the starters at 4.56.

 

I suppose my finger slipping on the keyboard earned that.

[win red sox]

In 2012, this team, with B+ level injury luck ... was the best team in the game from wire to wire basically. If you evaluate the lineup changes in the offseason by position (my guess with some caveats):

 

LF: Same-maybe a shade lower (Nava is a regression candidate, Gomes a positive regression one, both should not be big deals)

CF: Lower (although Bradley's on-base skills could REALLY help here)

RF: Same-shade lower (age-related regression, though if the power spike coming from quitting hitting lefty is real it's a different player we are evaluating)

3B: Higher (Bogaerts or Middlebrooks for the full season will be fine)

SS: Higher (Bogaerts or Drew, former has more ceiling although latter is just fine)

2B: Higher (figure the injury healing will enable the power to return in earnest)

1B: Same (Napoli I expect a similar season, Carp is a regression candidate perhaps)

C: Slightly Lower (Pierzynski's age and on-base skills a dropoff, Ross is Ross)

DH: Same (Papi has to show me the regression first)

 

To the pitching staff:

 

Lackey, Peavy, Dempster have some age-based regression possible ... at the same time Peavy should be better than he was at the end of last season. Lester is one of the surest things in the game and Buchholz we can rattle off the wide range of outcomes. That said, overall this rotation is good and if they make 144 of 162 starts like they did last year - the rotation will be a strength.

 

Bullpen - Breslow is a prime regression candidate. To be fair Uehara is too only because that level of achievement is impossible to expect. That said, Workman, Britton, De La Rosa, Tazawa all have reasons to expect improvement or continued solid performance. The new guys are all solid adds, and Cherington will keep adding more bodies because that is the best approach to take to the bullpen.

 

I think looking at the breakdown, if a legitimately good LF option showed up, they'd really have to look at it. Otherwise, the positions are in decent shape. The bullpen is always worth adding arms - and the rotation while it lacks a true #1 (although Lester did a pretty good job as such in the playoffs) is rich in #2/#3 sort of guys, and you can (and have) win a title that way.

 

pretty accurate, except I think by the All Star break Napoli is a straight platoon player. Once the BABIP regresses it going to get ugly.

[Bellhorn04]

I suppose my finger slipping on the keyboard earned that.

 

Sorry, I wasn't sure.

[User Name]

Not necessarily. As i've posted before, three true outcome players tend to have massive BABIP swings because of how little contact they make but their core skills (OBP, SLG%) tend to remain in very similar range, and only BA really fluctuating. @ win red sox

[win red sox]

Not necessarily. As i've posted before, three true outcome players tend to have massive BABIP swings because of how little contact they make but their core skills (OBP, SLG%) tend to remain in very similar range, and only BA really fluctuating. @ win red sox

 

I can understand that. But he has a career 310 babip and His 367 this year was a career high. I can see a situation where His k rate hovers aroung 35%, babip hovers around 310 and his iso dips below 200. Which now the Six have a sub .800 ops 1B, but don't worry he's a clubhouse guy that can handle playing in Boston.(That dig wasn't met for you)

[sk7326]

Napoli at 2/32 was a legitimately good outcome for both sides - fair price for Napoli.

 

As noted, Napoli as a TTO sort of guy is not going to put a lot of balls in play, but the walks and such will help. Interestingly, if Drew comes back that is 3 of their projected Top 8 guys as relatively low contact sorts (Bradley, Napoli). BTW, I am very bullish on Bradley - but his minor league body of work has has a lot of walks and strikeouts sprinkled in. As is the case with hitters like these guys, you go deep into counts, you increase your odds of striking out. It's life when you see a lot of pitches

[User Name]

I can understand that. But he has a career 310 babip and His 367 this year was a career high. I can see a situation where His k rate hovers aroung 35%, babip hovers around 310 and his iso dips below 200. Which now the Six have a sub .800 ops 1B, but don't worry he's a clubhouse guy that can handle playing in Boston.(That dig wasn't met for you)

 

I think he keeps the OBP around .350, and with his power, a .450 SLG% is not out of the question. Look at Adam Dunn's career arc. He has several seasons of very much below average BABIP, but plus .850 OPS's. Now that doesn't mean Napoli equals an in-his prime Dunn, but they are similar hitters, and Napoli actually makes more consistent contact.

[BornToRun]

Lineup probably accurate, but Farrell says Pedey will bat 2nd, Papi 3rd. I figure Nap cleanup.

If Bradley hits, he will move up the chain. He and X could improve lineup vs last year if they hit.

Plus a healthy Pedey should show some power again.

 

If JBJ can hit like his plate discipline suggests, I think he might find himself hitting leadoff before year's end. My money is on Shane in the 1 spot until then.

 

With Pedey 2nd and Papi 3rd my bet is something like:

 

1. Vic

2. Pedey

3. Papi

4. Napoli

5. Nava/Gomes

6. Xander

7. WMB

8. AJ

9. JBJ

 

This is obviously, of course, if Drew doesn't return. If Stephen comes back, I'd hit him 7th with Xander shifting to 3B.

 

I'd be fine with AJ and JBJ getting flipped in the lineup but I think Jackie, if he can hit decently in his rookie year, would provide an opportunity to get a good OBP guy in the 9 hole so that there can be someone on base for the top of the order when the lineup turns over.

Edited December 11, 2013 by BornToRun

[SoxSport]

If JBJ can hit like his plate discipline suggests, I think he might find himself hitting leadoff before year's end. My money is on Shane in the 1 spot until then.

 

With Pedey 2nd and Papi 3rd my bet is something like:

 

1. Vic

2. Pedey

3. Papi

4. Napoli

5. Nava/Gomes

6. Xander

7. WMB

8. AJ

9. JBJ

 

 

Lot of power in that lineup if X,MBrooks and JBJ work out. More than last year.

[seabeachfred]

I can understand that. But he has a career 310 babip and His 367 this year was a career high. I can see a situation where His k rate hovers aroung 35%, babip hovers around 310 and his iso dips below 200. Which now the Six have a sub .800 ops 1B, but don't worry he's a clubhouse guy that can handle playing in Boston.(That dig wasn't met for you)

 

Let me assume that dig was for me Win. The fact is Napoli is a good run producer, drove in 92 runs this past season, hit 23 homers, played solid defense at first base and hit the s*** out of the ball against the Yankees. I would ask who you would have wanted to play first base if we hadn't resigned him? Also, don't minimize the part of being able to play in Boston. If you think back only a couple of years we had incontrovertible proof that some highly recommended players we got couldn't handle and didn't like dealing with the pressure that comes from Boston. Also, I think it is possible that Nap could cut down on his strikeouts next season and hit a few more dingers and drive in 100 runs.

[marklmw]

If JBJ can hit like his plate discipline suggests, I think he might find himself hitting leadoff before year's end. My money is on Shane in the 1 spot until then.

 

With Pedey 2nd and Papi 3rd my bet is something like:

 

1. Vic

2. Pedey

3. Papi

4. Napoli

5. Nava/Gomes

6. Xander

7. WMB

8. AJ

9. JBJ

 

This is obviously, of course, if Drew doesn't return. If Stephen comes back, I'd hit him 7th with Xander shifting to 3B.

 

I'd be fine with AJ and JBJ getting flipped in the lineup but I think Jackie, if he can hit decently in his rookie year, would provide an opportunity to get a good OBP guy in the 9 hole so that there can be someone on base for the top of the order when the lineup turns over.

 

It's a very good line-up. Imagine replacing Nava / Gomes with Kemp. Our 1-2 guys would have 15-20HR potential, while our 3-4-5-6-7 would have 25-30 HR potential. Can you say scary!

Edited December 11, 2013 by marklmw

[win red sox]

Let me assume that dig was for me Win. The fact is Napoli is a good run producer, drove in 92 runs this past season, hit 23 homers, played solid defense at first base and hit the s*** out of the ball against the Yankees. I would ask who you would have wanted to play first base if we hadn't resigned him? Also, don't minimize the part of being able to play in Boston. If you think back only a couple of years we had incontrovertible proof that some highly recommended players we got couldn't handle and didn't like dealing with the pressure that comes from Boston. Also, I think it is possible that Nap could cut down on his strikeouts next season and hit a few more dingers and drive in 100 runs.

 

1) The dig wasn't meant for you, it's just that i've seen it said in couple of forums. The fact is if you don't produce the fans and the media are going to get on you.

 

2) Napoli did have 92 rbi's this year, but the 3 batters in front of him had over .350 obp. It's almost embarrassing he didn't have considerable more.

 

3) Yes, Napoli had some good games against the Yankees. What did he do against the Rays?

 

4) In reference to who I would wanted to play 1b? I would have been fine with Carp getting the majority AB's, maybe try to pry Adams or Belt away. There were tons of options.

 

When it comes down to it, i'll be pulling for Napoli and hope he has an excellent season. In Ben I trust.

[Bellhorn04]

Napoli did have 92 rbi's this year, but the 3 batters in front of him had over .350 obp. It's almost embarrassing he didn't have considerable more.

 

Napoli had an .838 OPS with men on base and .875 with RISP. Maybe he didn't have as many opportunities as those OBP numbers would suggest.

[win red sox]

Napoli had an .838 OPS with men on base and .875 with RISP. Maybe he didn't have as many opportunities as those OBP numbers would suggest.

 

That's considerabley higher than I thought, good call. The number that sticks out to me is the 59 k's with risp.

[User Name]

A strikeout is just another out.

[win red sox]

A strikeout is just another out.

 

tell me that when there is a man on 3rd with less than 2 outs.

[marklmw]

tell me that when there is a man on 3rd with less than 2 outs.

+1!

[seabeachfred]

1) The dig wasn't meant for you, it's just that i've seen it said in couple of forums. The fact is if you don't produce the fans and the media are going to get on you.

 

2) Napoli did have 92 rbi's this year, but the 3 batters in front of him had over .350 obp. It's almost embarrassing he didn't have considerable more.

 

3) Yes, Napoli had some good games against the Yankees. What did he do against the Rays?

 

4) In reference to who I would wanted to play 1b? I would have been fine with Carp getting the majority AB's, maybe try to pry Adams or Belt away. There were tons of options.

 

When it comes down to it, i'll be pulling for Napoli and hope he has an excellent season. In Ben I trust.

 

Well you can guess I have a blind spot where Napoli is concerned. To me a perfect type of Red Sox player, but I'll give you this spades Win. I sure as hell hope he can cut down the strikeouts next season because a K does nothing for the team offensively. It is a useless out. As for the fans, I live on the West Coast and I can tell you from experience that those fans are much more tolerant and forgiving than fans in Boston and New York and Philadelphia. You only have to look at Carl Crawford to get Exhibit "A" on that. He loves LA and the LA fans because he said they were so fair and tolerant. He said the opposite of Boston rooters. If you screw up constantly in Boston the fans are going to let you have it hot and heavy over and over. You either produce or you better have thick skin. Then again, IMO there are no fans like ours anyway.

[sk7326]

tell me that when there is a man on 3rd with less than 2 outs.

 

And a strikeout is better than some contact outs when there is a runner at 1B and less than 2 outs. Strikeouts are painful to look at, but largely a non-issue. You see a lot of pitches you are opening yourself up to K's. In most situations, playing for the 3-run homer is the percentage play.

[User Name]

tell me that when there is a man on 3rd with less than 2 outs.

 

Would it be better if he grounded out to the pitcher then?

[marklmw]

Would it be better if he grounded out to the pitcher then?

 

This discussion is bordering lunacy.

[BornToRun]

It's a very good line-up. Imagine replacing Nava / Gomes with Kemp. Our 1-2 guys would have 15-20HR potential, while our 3-4-5-6-7 would have 25-30 HR potential. Can you say scary!

 

We're out on Kemp. 30 y/o, expensive, possibly crippled.

[BornToRun]

Would it be better if he grounded out to the pitcher then?

 

I'll agree that limiting strikeouts as much as you can is a good thing, I myself was frustrated when Nap would K with a guy on third but if the dude is going to OPS .840 with good defense in the field, it's just something you're gonna have to live with. It's an acceptable trade off.

 

And I'm agreeing with your point, I know it might not have initially read like it.

[dupree]

We're out on Kemp. 30 y/o, expensive, possibly crippled.

After listening to Ned today, id say Kemp is still in play but he wont be moved until Spring Training so teams can get a look at how his health is. But if he isnt moved in ST id say he is good as gone by the trade deadline. The Dodgers want a healthy return and their asking price now is probably too high and too much of a salary to bet that much $ on, so id say teams will get a look at him in ST and he will be moved. Atleast i hope if he is 80% by ST and the dodgers put him back out there i hope the Sox jump on him. Matt Kemp at just 80% is better than a platoon of Nava and Gomes. Imagine still buying a little low on him and then letting him get healthy by mid season. I like the thought of 3,4,5,6,and 7 hitters having 30+ hr potential in this day of the pitcher. That lineup would be insane.

[marklmw]

After listening to Ned today, id say Kemp is still in play but he wont be moved until Spring Training so teams can get a look at how his health is. But if he isnt moved in ST id say he is good as gone by the trade deadline. The Dodgers want a healthy return and their asking price now is probably too high and too much of a salary to bet that much $ on, so id say teams will get a look at him in ST and he will be moved. Atleast i hope if he is 80% by ST and the dodgers put him back out there i hope the Sox jump on him. Matt Kemp at just 80% is better than a platoon of Nava and Gomes. Imagine still buying a little low on him and then letting him get healthy by mid season. I like the thought of 3,4,5,6,and 7 hitters having 30+ hr potential in this day of the pitcher. That lineup would be insane.

I like the way you think Dupree ... Let me buy you a steak dinner!

[Jaddy]

I like the way he thinks too!! 30 dingers from our 3,4,5,6 and 7 guys! Who is in your lineup and what are you trading for Kemp???

[dupree]

I like the way you think Dupree ... Let me buy you a steak dinner!

Thank you... but you have to buy the beers too.

[marklmw]

Thank you... but you have to buy the beers too.

Sounds fine ... but you are responsible for the tip!

[marklmw]

I like the way he thinks too!! 30 dingers from our 3,4,5,6 and 7 guys! Who is in your lineup and what are you trading for Kemp???

Dupree needs to bring it back a little ... 20 - 30 is more like it. No Davis or Cabrerra in our line-up. But Bogaerts, WMB, Papi the Big, Napoli, Kemp,