Hot Stove 2013-2014

[Bellhorn04]

Patience with the kids now.

[seabeachfred]

Patience with the kids now.

 

Patience is absolutely right Bellhorn, especially with Bogaerts but this is the crap that can happen when panic sets in and the team decides to bring in a veteran to "push" a youngster. We now see it in CF where Bradley might be close to losing his job to Gray Sizemore and being sent down to Pawtucket for "further seasoning" which seems for our players who go that way is a one way ticket to regression and trade bait a la Anderson, Kalish and now Lavarnway. What I had better not hear is that we need Drew now to "push" Bogaerts. X will be fine, just let him play and leave him the f*** alone.

[redsoxrules]

For all we know XB could be a bust.

Or could be great. You don't bank on him succeeding without a back up plan.

Look at JB, he's about to lose CF to Sizemore. If you can add a guy like Drew for a good price you f***ing do it.

[seabeachfred]

For all we know XB could be a bust.

Or could be great. You don't bank on him succeeding without a back up plan.

Look at JB, he's about to lose CF to Sizemore. If you can add a guy like Drew for a good price you f***ing do it.

 

Bogaerts is not going to be a bust of any kind. The guy is rated as the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball and while he is having some trouble this Spring it stands to reason that he will very soon start paying big dividends to us. Why would be want Drew when no one else wants him. You think he would settle for being a backup and sign for peanuts? Sorry RSR, that isn't going to happen. IMHO, he would be a potential roadblock if either X or WMB got off to a slow start and Farrell panicked. We have these fine young prospects and we need to start playing them and take our chances. What the hell is the good of talking how good our farm system is if we are going to s*** the bed and be scared to play them. We may already have lost one with Bradley who stands a good chance now of being replaced by Grady Sizemore. We should be fine with either Herrera or Holt for emergency duty. It worked last season. Well that's my opinion but I appreciate you take on things.

[redsoxrules]

Top prospects have flopped before. Nothing is a slam dunk.

[seabeachfred]

Top prospects have flopped before. Nothing is a slam dunk.

 

True, nothing is a slam dunk but do you really expect Bogey to fail? We saw him last season in the ALCS and World Series under tremendous pressure to perform and he did a terrific job. Slam dunk? No, but pretty close to it IMHO. You had to be impressed by what you saw last fall too, right? The kid can play.

[jacksonianmarch]

Jesus Montero hit .328 with a .996OPS in 61 at bats for NYY in 2011 and went 2 for 2 in his only postseason game. How has he done the last two seasons? Now, the kid is hitting the piss out of the ball in ST this yr, but the point is, even top talent can flop and even top talent can take time to mature into being MLB ready.

[Bellhorn04]

Jesus Montero hit .328 with a .996OPS in 61 at bats for NYY in 2011 and went 2 for 2 in his only postseason game. How has he done the last two seasons? Now, the kid is hitting the piss out of the ball in ST this yr, but the point is, even top talent can flop and even top talent can take time to mature into being MLB ready.

 

Maybe Montero and Pineda will both have good years, who knows? That's the beauty of baseball. There's so much s*** you just can't predict, even if you're the world's greatest Sabrmetrics guy.

[redsoxrules]

Chapman got hit by liner. Thats a big loss. Looked brutal and he'll be out for a while.

Might never be the same.

[Palodios]

Chapman got hit by liner. Thats a big loss. Looked brutal and he'll be out for a while.

Might never be the same.

 

I just read an article that said Chapman came away in as good a shape as possible. Apparently the concussion is only mild-- his nose protected him from harm.

[mvp 78]

"Aroldis Chapman has bone fractures and a concussion, and will have a metal plate permanently installed in his head, but is otherwise well. He is expected to miss six to eight weeks."

[a700hitter]

Josh Johnson has been shut down already, more arm problems. They are hoping that it will be 2-4 weeks. Arm ailments have wrecked his career.

[Palodios]

Max Scherzer turned down a 6/144 extension offer from the Tigers. I understand he had a great 2013, but the rest of his career has been pretty mediocre, against a very weak division.

 

Meanwhile, the Rangers lose Profar, after losing countless pitchers.

 

The AL's best has struggled this offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

Max Scherzer turned down a 6/144 extension offer from the Tigers. I understand he had a great 2013, but the rest of his career has been pretty mediocre, against a very weak division.

 

That is a crazy amount of money to turn down alright.

[User Name]

This is a market that's yielding 100+ million contracts to slightly above average pitchers left and right. Scherzer is coming off a good season then a great one at 28 years old, with A++ stuff and a clean bill of health. A similar year to 2013 sends him above the 200 million threshold, while one similar to 2012 still has him hovering above 120 mill. It makes all the sense in the world to wait the market out.

[Bellhorn04]

This is a market that's yielding 100+ million contracts to slightly above average pitchers left and right. Scherzer is coming off a good season then a great one at 28 years old, with A++ stuff and a clean bill of health. A similar year to 2013 sends him above the 200 million threshold, while one similar to 2012 still has him hovering above 120 mill. It makes all the sense in the world to wait the market out.

 

Oh, I can see that point of view as well. It's just that he's also a guy who has only made $14 million in his career including this year. If he gets some serious out-of-nowhere injury this year, he'll have said goodbye to 10 times that amount. It's a risky play from that perspective.

[TeddyBallGame9]

How will Tito and the Tribe do this year?

[Palodios]

This is a market that's yielding 100+ million contracts to slightly above average pitchers left and right. Scherzer is coming off a good season then a great one at 28 years old, with A++ stuff and a clean bill of health. A similar year to 2013 sends him above the 200 million threshold, while one similar to 2012 still has him hovering above 120 mill. It makes all the sense in the world to wait the market out.

 

Scherzer has had one ace season with a .250 BABIP and a career low HR/FB% -- it also was the first time in his career he eclipsed 200+ innings. He also pitched 16 games against a combination of Houston, KC, CHW, Min, Philly, NYM. He also has to compete with Shields, Masterson, and an impending David Price trade. He might be able to hit that 144 million number if without another CY Young type season, there are no guarantees -- especially with contending teams.

[Palodios]

How will Tito and the Tribe do this year?

 

Teddy... Can you do me a huge favor and switch the avatar? We've had a bug problem here lately, and it really is creeping me out.

[User Name]

Scherzer has had one ace season with a .250 BABIP and a career low HR/FB% -- it also was the first time in his career he eclipsed 200+ innings. He also pitched 16 games against a combination of Houston, KC, CHW, Min, Philly, NYM. He also has to compete with Shields, Masterson, and an impending David Price trade. He might be able to hit that 144 million number if without another CY Young type season, there are no guarantees -- especially with contending teams.

 

As i said above, he doesn't need to replicate 2013 to match/eclipse the figure offered by the Tigers. A 2012 redux (3.79 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 231 K) assure him of a monster payday.

[TeddyBallGame9]

There ya go. Sorry.

[User Name]

Oh, I can see that point of view as well. It's just that he's also a guy who has only made $14 million in his career including this year. If he gets some serious out-of-nowhere injury this year, he'll have said goodbye to 10 times that amount. It's a risky play from that perspective.

 

Risky, but understandable. Remember who his agent is.

[Palodios]

As i said above, he doesn't need to replicate 2013 to match/eclipse the figure offered by the Tigers. A 2012 redux (3.79 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 231 K) assure him of a monster payday.

 

The guys who have received huge paydays have been far more consistent. Wainright, Felix, Kershaw have proven a great deal more than Scherzer.

 

Scherzer is in that next tier -- the Homer Bailey/Lester/Matt Cain/Jared Weaver group.

[User Name]

Not if he has a good year and he's the clear-cut best pitcher on the market for next year with Scott Boras as his agent. You're arguing against both market trends with the exploding salaries and the stupidity/desperation of some GMs. It's an argument you will lose. If he's healthy and the Tigers don't extend him, he'll get his money.

[Palodios]

Not if he has a good year and he's the clear-cut best pitcher on the market for next year with Scott Boras as his agent. You're arguing against both market trends with the exploding salaries and the stupidity/desperation of some GMs. It's an argument you will lose. If he's healthy and the Tigers don't extend him, he'll get his money.

 

All of the massive contracts have gone to #1 pitchers or #2 pitchers with many prime years still available.

 

The best comparison here is Zack Greinke. Two guys coming from the AL Central, Cy Young Winners, high strikeout numbers, both with career 3.60 ERAs, WHIPs in the 1.20's. Greinke received 147 million going into free agency a year and a half younger, and with higher inning numbers.

 

Scherzer might get around that, but if Scherzer repeats his 3.74 ERA 2012, no one is going to want to pay 200 million for his age 31-38 seasons.

[rjortiz]

Scherzer might get around that, but if Scherzer repeats his 3.74 ERA 2012, no one is going to want to pay 200 million for his age 31-38 seasons.

 

7/180, or even 8/200 would not surprise me at all. Even with the 3.74 ERA, his 2012 was still worth 4.6 wins, which is worth more than $25 million in this market.

[User Name]

All of the massive contracts have gone to #1 pitchers or #2 pitchers with many prime years still available.

 

The best comparison here is Zack Greinke. Two guys coming from the AL Central, Cy Young Winners, high strikeout numbers, both with career 3.60 ERAs, WHIPs in the 1.20's. Greinke received 147 million going into free agency a year and a half younger, and with higher inning numbers.

 

Scherzer might get around that, but if Scherzer repeats his 3.74 ERA 2012, no one is going to want to pay 200 million for his age 31-38 seasons.

 

30-37, and considering what the rest of the market looks like, the salary explosion, the Boras factor and the stupidity of GMs, not only will he get 200 mill (or close to it) but several teams will line up to bid for his services, including the typical Boras mystery team.

Edited March 24, 2014 by User Name?

[Bellhorn04]

Risky, but understandable. Remember who his agent is.

 

Exactly. I'm an accountant. From an agent's perspective, Scherzer is doing the right thing, he's going for broke. From an accountant's perspective, he's nuts.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm looking at it strictly as a risk/reward thing. If Scherzer has a great season he can turn 144 million into maybe 200 million. That's a marginal increase of 56 million less taxes etc. Arguably, it's also money he'll never need.

 

If a disaster befalls him, such as getting hit in the head like Chapman and being less fortunate, he could lose it all. Going from massive wealth of 144 million, less taxes etc. to zero.

 

So I think he's taking a huge risk for little real reward, except in the ego department.

[a700hitter]

Dombrowki is going to lock down Scherzer. He will not let him get away. Having the dual aces in the rotation prevents losing streaks, and if you can avoid losing streaks you usually put up a winning record. Dual aces are even more important if you make the post season. He will throw enough money at Scherzer to make him happy without the stress of having to go under the microscope in a new town.