2014 Roster Projections

[Behindenemylines]

Here's an article which says they should sign Choo.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24374235/champion-red-sox-still-have-work-to-do

 

I don't know if they are willing to throw $20M for 7years at any player. They weren't with Ellsbury.

 

If they didn't give one of their own that type of $$$$$ they are not bringing a FA from another team for that kind of $$$$$.

[Behindenemylines]

Most baseball people feel that the Yankees overpaid for Ellsbury. Perhaps Choo would take 90 /5

 

Ellsbury is a very good player, but he is not a 20 million plus a year player. The $pankees did over pay him. This is a player that had one MVP type season, but has been hurt a lot over the last four years. People argue that they were freak injuries with him running into people. For him to be the effective player he is he has to play that style and that causes his chance to be injuried to grow. If he doesn't play all out then he becomes a less effective player. It was his all out effort for a ball that caused his collision with Beltre and his all out effort to break up a play against the Rays that causes the Ray's fielder to fall on him. Its his sppedd and all out style that makes him the player he is.

[Bellhorn04]

Ellsbury is a very good player, but he is not a 20 million plus a year player.

 

The Ellsbury contract joins the Crawford contract as the most ridiculous ever, in the sense that you're paying a guy who might not even hit 10 home runs 20 million.

[Palodios]

Ryan Kalish signs with the Cubs.

 

Theo really likes the Red Sox's rejects.

[Palodios]

Gavin Floyd is on the free agent market. He seems like the perfect guy to pickup use as depth to open up Dempster for a trade. The guy is as consistent as you can get ... 4.00 ERA 160+ innings every year.

[mvp 78]

They aren't signing Floyd to be a 6th starter. Peavy and Doubs are better.

[User Name]

The Ellsbury contract joins the Crawford contract as the most ridiculous ever, in the sense that you're paying a guy who might not even hit 10 home runs 20 million.

 

The fact that he doesn't hit homers isn't the main problem here.

[BornToRun]

The fact that he doesn't hit homers isn't the main problem here.

 

Yeah, I wouldn't have a problem paying 5/100 for Ells if that's what it would've taken. I would've been fine with 20 AAV for 5 years or something like 6/110-ish. But the Yankees gave him absurd superstar money when he isn't a super star. Ellsbury is not the kind of guy you pay over 20 million a year for potentially 8 years.

[sk7326]

The Ellsbury contract joins the Crawford contract as the most ridiculous ever, in the sense that you're paying a guy who might not even hit 10 home runs 20 million.

 

He'll hit homeruns in NY. Nothing insane - but he is shifting to the best lefty power ballpark in the bigs, on that basis alone he should be a low double figures sort of guy there at worst. It is a reason why I think the signing is a bit more defensible for the Yankees - but not as part of the offseason strategy they have in fact actually executed i.e. letting Cano walk for Ellsbury.

[marklmw]

Ellsbury is a very good player, but he is not a 20 million plus a year player. The $pankees did over pay him. This is a player that had one MVP type season, but has been hurt a lot over the last four years. People argue that they were freak injuries with him running into people. For him to be the effective player he is he has to play that style and that causes his chance to be injuried to grow. If he doesn't play all out then he becomes a less effective player. It was his all out effort for a ball that caused his collision with Beltre and his all out effort to break up a play against the Rays that causes the Ray's fielder to fall on him. Its his sppedd and all out style that makes him the player he is.

 

I was more upset with him for his 2nd injury when he was sliding into 2nd to break up a double play. I have issues with his judgement for the following reasons:

1. It was early in the season and a nothing game

2. The ball was hit sharply and the hitter was out by 3-4 steps.

3. Did I say that it happened early in the season and was a nothing game.

 

Playing alert and hard is one thing ... playing smart is another. Should a player run into an outfield wall to catch a ball early in the season ... I would rather the player play the ball off the wall and throw it into second or to the cut off man and play another day. In the post season all bet's are off but still you have to use good judgement ... if there are 2 outs and no runners on base and your team is ahead by 3 runs ... do not crash into the wall. If runners are on 2nd and 3rd in a tie ballgame with 2 outs go for the catch. does this make sense?

Edited December 14, 2013 by marklmw

[marklmw]

The fact that he doesn't hit homers isn't the main problem here.

UN ... do not forget our steak dinner bet that Ellsbury hits 20+ HR's next year.

[Bellhorn04]

OK, let's look at Ellsbury's career HR numbers at the Stadium. This is for the two Stadiums combined-mostly in the new Stadium:

 

206 PA

185 AB

4 HR

 

That projects to about 7 HR at the Stadium for a season of 350 PA's.

[sk7326]

OK, let's look at Ellsbury's career HR numbers at the Stadium. This is for the two Stadiums combined-mostly in the new Stadium:

 

206 PA

185 AB

4 HR

 

That projects to about 7 HR at the Stadium for a season of 350 PA's.

 

And 14 for about 700 which is in line with a full season ... which is a reasonable expectation. The homeruns will go-up with the switch to Yankee Stadium most likely - probably won't get you to 20 (although I wouldn't be surprised if it did) but should get a guy who is not a slap hitter into double figures.

[EXman369]

The Royals have a good SS and no 2B. Drew can play SS but has never played 2B professionally. How would Drew to the Royals have made sense?

 

As for the money value system in the draft:

 

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2013/6/26/4463258/MLB-draft-slotting-bonus-pools-penalties

 

It's clearly explained in the above link.

 

Hah it was just a wish, in no way was i saying that it made sense just would have been a sick draft pick!

Edited December 14, 2013 by EXman369

[SoxSport]

Re Yankee stadium, it was literally the park that Ruth built--to his specs. Hence the absurd asymmetry. One of the concessions along with $$ made to him to convince him to go to NY. He didn't want to initially--joining the Royal Rooters striking against the selloff in the LF grandstand the first two weeks. After all, the Red Sox were the dominant team of the WWI era, and he was their best hitter--and pitcher! Imagine what a player like that would be worth today.

 

Salary dumping (selling players) was pretty common in those days, and Frazee made a bundle selling off the core of the Red Sox championship team--much of it to the lowly Yankees. Ed Barrow of the FO also joined the Yankees, and he had been responsible for setting up the Red Sox farm system.

 

With the new stadium in NY for the Yankees, I've long suspected Ban Johnson, President of the AL, was behind the Yankee buildup, to establish NY as the AL centerpiece, to counter the Giants and the Dodgers. At Boston's expense. The Yankees later engineered the sale of the Philly As in the 1950s to Kansas City, backing KC owners over a group which wanted to keep the As in Philly. During that period, some people referred to the KC As as a Yankee farm team. They got Bob Cerv and others that way.

[Spitball]

And 14 for about 700 which is in line with a full season ... which is a reasonable expectation. The homeruns will go-up with the switch to Yankee Stadium most likely - probably won't get you to 20 (although I wouldn't be surprised if it did) but should get a guy who is not a slap hitter into double figures.

 

I think the 350 number represented his at bats at home. He would then in theory have about the same number of at bats on the road. His road homerun total would not go up at the same rate.

[User Name]

I think the 350 number represented his at bats at home. He would then in theory have about the same number of at bats on the road. His road homerun total would not go up at the same rate.

 

I wanted to post this, but didn't wanna pick nits.

[sk7326]

I think the 350 number represented his at bats at home. He would then in theory have about the same number of at bats on the road. His road homerun total would not go up at the same rate.

 

Which I should have noticed ... appreciate the catch

 

At the same time, if you take his 2013 as a reasonable estimator ... he hit 5 of the 9 homeruns on the road although his slugging in general was higher at Fenway (which is actually the typical park effect for Fenway).

 

The homeruns I expect to increase - how much is the more interesting. I think the 12-14 ballpark is fairly safe as an estimate. In 2013 he had his lowest fly ball rate in about 5 years - just getting back to the flyball tendencies he showed 2009-2012 will improve the homerun count. It's not germane to the question about whether the Yankees made a good decision (since you have to look at it in the context of their entire offseason so far) either way.

[Spitball]

Haha! I am definitely a pick nitter, UN. Sk, you make a good point, but the math does not necessarily significantly support Ellsbury increasing his homerun numbers on the road.

[SoxSport]

I agree about Ells. He isn't a dead pull hitter--more a straightaway hitter. You have to be dead pull to benefit from Yankee stadium--no advantage to right center. Maris was probably the best example of a dead pull guy who tucked a lot of HRs into the RF porch. Granderson also benefitted, with two 40 HR seasons. It's incredible to me why the Yankees didn't re-sign him. Their hitting strength lately has been HRs, and they might decline next year with the loss of Grandy and Cano. If they are banking on Ells repeating his 30 HR season, they are on shakey ground. He has become allergic to kryptonite.

[SoxSport]

With regards to SBs, I wonder if the Sox will miss those 50 SBs of Ells next year. For one, AJP and Ross figure to be better defensively against SBs than Salty--Ross missed a lot of games last year with that concussion. Their runs scored against on SBs figures to drop. Plus Bradley figures to steal about 20 bases, X maybe 10-20 if they play enough. That will counter some of the 50 lost in their runs scored on SBs. Net runs scored on SBs was a liability in Tito's day, when teams were stealing blindly on the Red Sox in part due to "fielder's indifference."

 

The key to team speed this year will be the presence of JBJ and X in the lineup, and a healthy Pedey and Vic.

[User Name]

Net runs scored on SBs is something you pretty much made up.

[a700hitter]

The key to team speed this year will be the presence of JBJ and X in the lineup, and a healthy Pedey and Vic.

None is the type of weapon that Ellsbury is. They are situational base stealers for the most part-- they take advantages of lapses by the pitchers. Ellsbury was a guy that the pitchers knew would be stealing and they still could not stop him -- not even with a pitchout. Yes, Victorino and Pedroia can steal bases, but they can't win showdowns with the oppositions pitchers and catchers like Ells could. As for JBJ, I don't know if he can steal bases effectively.

[Kill_Switch]

Net runs scored on SBs is something you pretty much made up.

 

Is there any stat that truly weighs the impact of bases stolen by a player? Seems like a complicated thing to calculate due to the indirect impact it has on the pitcher (changed signs, etc). Would be interesting to see on Ells though...

[Palodios]

Hey -- here's an idea.

 

Alex Gonzalez as the team's utility infielder. He's still floating around somewhere I think.

[Bellhorn04]

Is there any stat that truly weighs the impact of bases stolen by a player? Seems like a complicated thing to calculate due to the indirect impact it has on the pitcher (changed signs, etc). Would be interesting to see on Ells though...

 

As far as the indirect effect, I don't think there's any reliable way to measure that. If someone could dig up the data, which I doubt, you could try something like this:

 

OPS of Red Sox hitters hitting directly after Ellsbury when he's not on base vs.

OPS of Red Sox hitters hitting directly after Ellsbury when he's on first or second base

 

That wouldn't necessarily prove anything either but it might be interesting.

[vjcsmoke]

None is the type of weapon that Ellsbury is. They are situational base stealers for the most part-- they take advantages of lapses by the pitchers. Ellsbury was a guy that the pitchers knew would be stealing and they still could not stop him -- not even with a pitchout. Yes, Victorino and Pedroia can steal bases, but they can't win showdowns with the oppositions pitchers and catchers like Ells could. As for JBJ, I don't know if he can steal bases effectively.

 

The scouting report on JBJ is that he only has average to above average speed. He's not an elite speedster like Ellsbury. So we can expect about 20 SB from JBJ but I think he bats 9th until he proves he can hit major league pitching with decent OBP.

[seabeachfred]

With regards to SBs, I wonder if the Sox will miss those 50 SBs of Ells next year. For one, AJP and Ross figure to be better defensively against SBs than Salty--Ross missed a lot of games last year with that concussion. Their runs scored against on SBs figures to drop. Plus Bradley figures to steal about 20 bases, X maybe 10-20 if they play enough. That will counter some of the 50 lost in their runs scored on SBs. Net runs scored on SBs was a liability in Tito's day, when teams were stealing blindly on the Red Sox in part due to "fielder's indifference."

 

The key to team speed this year will be the presence of JBJ and X in the lineup, and a healthy Pedey and Vic.

 

Good recounting of the half-ass thinking of former manager Francona. The guy has his mindset ass backwards. Instead of his insisting on playing his dull and unimaginative and easy to defend game, he should have been more willing to move runners, to hit and run, to try and force the game on the opposition. Instead he did nothing of the sort and then compounded his petty crime into a felony by coming out and insisting that stolen bases by the opposition wasn't a concern of his.

 

Amazing, isn't it? It never occurred to him when we were losing one and two run games in bunches his last years with the Red Sox that the opposite mindset mind have netted us better results. That's what I liked about Farrell this past season---he moved runners, played a more wide open game, and though he didn't throw out as many potential base stealers as everyone would have liked, much of it had to do with Salty's inability to throw well. At least, though, things have improved markedly on those scores. I don't think too many people miss Francona much any more.

[Dojji]

Good recounting of the half-ass thinking of former manager Francona. The guy has his mindset ass backwards. Instead of his insisting on playing his dull and unimaginative and easy to defend game, he should have been more willing to move runners, to hit and run, to try and force the game on the opposition. Instead he did nothing of the sort and then compounded his petty crime into a felony by coming out and insisting that stolen bases by the opposition wasn't a concern of his.

 

Amazing, isn't it? It never occurred to him when we were losing one and two run games in bunches his last years with the Red Sox that the opposite mindset mind have netted us better results. That's what I liked about Farrell this past season---he moved runners, played a more wide open game, and though he didn't throw out as many potential base stealers as everyone would have liked, much of it had to do with Salty's inability to throw well. At least, though, things have improved markedly on those scores. I don't think too many people miss Francona much any more.

 

He won us two World Series and never gave us a losing season. you might give Tito a bit more credit. We saw the difference between Tito and an incompetent manager in 2012, and he did well with the Guardians last year. The man knows his job.

[seabeachfred]

He won us two World Series and never gave us a losing season. you might give Tito a bit more credit. We saw the difference between Tito and an incompetent manager in 2012, and he did well with the Guardians last year. The man knows his job.

 

Dojii, I have always maintained that as a clubhouse skipper keeping the press and pressure away from his players Francona was a terrific manager. He let his players play ball and didn't get in their faces and make stupid comments that alienated any of his people, and most importantly he showed terrific loyalty to his men. These are all very highly commendable traits and much of what managing should be. It is as a strategist and field skipper that I had some real doubts about him.....and if you kept up with things the last few years of his tenure in Boston owner John Henry had become very critical of his field managerial skills. Then he completely lost his team when they turned on him with that chicken and beer fest late in the 2011 season. Francona never bunted, said he didn't want to give up outs, yet in six or seven of his years in Boston we led the AL in hitting into double plays, many of them rally killing ones. He never used the hit and run much, and even when teams paid little attention to Boston runners he never moved them. It was station-to-station ball all the way with him, and if you remember the sudden death game the Guardians played against the Rays in October, once again with men on base he never once tried a steal, a hit and run or a bunt. The result was a number of strikeouts and I believe two double plays. I readily give credit to Terry in areas where he was strong but I don't hesitate to point out where I think he was deficient.