2014 Roster Projections

[SoxFanForsyth]

Not sure who mentioned it earlier, but Carlos Santana is a really, really intriguing name.

 

He wouldn't be a LT catcher (likely will move to 1B when Vazquez/Swihart are ready), but he's a very good hitter with an elite OBP and 20+ HR pop. He would also be a really nice bat to have once Ortiz leaves.

[Palodios]

Not sure who mentioned it earlier, but Carlos Santana is a really, really intriguing name.

 

He wouldn't be a LT catcher (likely will move to 1B when Vazquez/Swihart are ready), but he's a very good hitter with an elite OBP and 20+ HR pop. He would also be a really nice bat to have once Ortiz leaves.

 

The OBP is nice, but would you trade a top 100 overall prospect to get a .800 OPS firstbaseman with a mediocre glove? Any less than a Mookie Betts, Swihart or Ball would not be enough for him.

[marklmw]

Corey Hart is a real family man ... he has 4 kids and he said in an interview that where the team has spring training will factor into his decision. He lives in Arizona ... this hurts Bostons chances should he be true to his word and the words reported are true.

[DirtDog]

The OBP is nice, but would you trade a top 100 overall prospect to get a .800 OPS firstbaseman with a mediocre glove? Any less than a Mookie Betts, Swihart or Ball would not be enough for him.

 

Two things:

 

1 Do you know how many top 100 prospects are flops? So many. Mookie Betts is pretty far from the major leagues right now.

2 Defense at first base is WAYYYY overrated. Having a sure handed SS or 2B is 5x more important.

 

The consensus in this thread seems to be "trade our crap for ryan hanigan, sign corey hart to a 1 year/6MM deal and pick up drew stubbs as 4th OF"

 

The Red Sox have MONEY to spend. Not all the prospects work out, eventually you need to pony up and overpay a proven veteran at a position or two (look at what the cardinals did with Peralta). There is much more risk in production in going to the younger, cheaper option EVERY TIME there is a need. While I'm not betting my house on a bigger name walking through that door this offseason, eventually the Red Sox have to make a real move somewhere.

Edited November 26, 2013 by DirtDog

[DirtDog]

Corey Hart is a real family man ... he has 4 kids and he said in an interview that where the team has spring training will factor into his decision. He lives in Arizona ... this hurts Bostons chances should he be true to his word and the words reported are true.

 

he's not in the position of making ridiculous demands after missing all of 2013... he'll go where the money is

[User Name]

Two things:

 

1 Do you know how many top 100 prospects are flops? So many. Mookie Betts is pretty far from the major leagues right now.

2 Defense at first base is WAYYYY overrated. Having a sure handed SS or 2B is 5x more important.

 

The consensus in this thread seems to be "trade our crap for ryan hanigan, sign corey hart to a 1 year/6MM deal and pick up drew stubbs as 4th OF"

 

The Red Sox have MONEY to spend. Not all the prospects work out, eventually you need to pony up and overpay a proven veteran at a position or two (look at what the cardinals did with Peralta). There is much more risk in production in going to the younger, cheaper option EVERY TIME there is a need. While I'm not betting my house on a bigger name walking through that door this offseason, eventually the Red Sox have to make a real move somewhere.

 

This makes little sense. The Sox don't have to tie themselves up by overpaying for anyone. Just because you have money doesn't mean you have to overpay in money or prospects who, even though they "don't always pan out" have an intrinsic value because of they possibility that they may.

 

And for the record, there's as much risk on going for the "proven veteran" as their is in going for the younger, cheaper alternative. The proven veteran route led to 2012, as Lucchino so eloquently stated when reminded of the Crawford, Gonzalez and Beckett flops in an interview the other day.

 

Now, this doesn't mean that if they find a good upgrade on a deal that makes sense they shouldn't do it, but they should avoid throwing money/prospects all over the place lest they screw up the good thing they have going on right now.

[Bellhorn04]

Two things:

 

1 Do you know how many top 100 prospects are flops? So many. Mookie Betts is pretty far from the major leagues right now.

2 Defense at first base is WAYYYY overrated. Having a sure handed SS or 2B is 5x more important.

 

The consensus in this thread seems to be "trade our crap for ryan hanigan, sign corey hart to a 1 year/6MM deal and pick up drew stubbs as 4th OF"

 

The Red Sox have MONEY to spend. Not all the prospects work out, eventually you need to pony up and overpay a proven veteran at a position or two (look at what the cardinals did with Peralta). There is much more risk in production in going to the younger, cheaper option EVERY TIME there is a need. While I'm not betting my house on a bigger name walking through that door this offseason, eventually the Red Sox have to make a real move somewhere.

 

My position is this: I fully expect the payroll to end up at least as high as 2013. And I fully expect Ben to do a good job figuring out how best to allocate the remaining dollars.

[SoxSport]

I hear money projections thrown out by the media, and it appears they are partly responsible for salary inflation. The agents read this stuff and get ideas. The cart before the horse. Cano strikes me as an example.

 

Nap wants 3 years, and the Red Sox are probably at 2. They will probably go to a 3rd option year based on some conditions. I don't know how his hip figures in all this, but some desperate team (Mariners?) is liable to offer 4 years unconditional. If Nap's agent persuades him to take the money and run, bye bye Nap.

[mvp 78]

I hear money projections thrown out by the media, and it appears they are partly responsible for salary inflation. The agents read this stuff and get ideas. The cart before the horse. Cano strikes me as an example.

 

Haha, no.

[iortiz]

Two things:

 

1 Do you know how many top 100 prospects are flops? So many. Mookie Betts is pretty far from the major leagues right now.

2 Defense at first base is WAYYYY overrated. Having a sure handed SS or 2B is 5x more important.

 

The consensus in this thread seems to be "trade our crap for ryan hanigan, sign corey hart to a 1 year/6MM deal and pick up drew stubbs as 4th OF"

 

The Red Sox have MONEY to spend. Not all the prospects work out, eventually you need to pony up and overpay a proven veteran at a position or two (look at what the cardinals did with Peralta). There is much more risk in production in going to the younger, cheaper option EVERY TIME there is a need. While I'm not betting my house on a bigger name walking through that door this offseason, eventually the Red Sox have to make a real move somewhere.

 

I do agree totally with this post.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The OBP is nice, but would you trade a top 100 overall prospect to get a .800 OPS firstbaseman with a mediocre glove? Any less than a Mookie Betts, Swihart or Ball would not be enough for him.

 

You can get him for Betts + Barnes. Ball isn't even tradable right now bc he hasn't been signed for a year.

 

You'd certainly have to pay for him but he's a very good stick with good versatility

[mvp 78]

I don't move Barnes unless a pitcher is coming back.

[Palodios]

You can get him for Betts + Barnes. Ball isn't even tradable right now bc he hasn't been signed for a year.

 

You'd certainly have to pay for him but he's a very good stick with good versatility

 

Can't you trade a prospect as a PTNL? Trading one top 150 prospects for a poor defensive 1B with a .800 OPS was bad enough, but adding a top 100 prospect on top of him? Yikes.

[seabeachfred]

No, the Guardians moved Santana to DH because he was coming back from a knee injury, and the catcher they currently have is a great defender, while Santana grades out around average. He's also a hell of a better pitch-framer than Salty.

 

No, he was also moved from catcher because he graded very poorly as a defensive backstop----that from his days as a Dodger farmhand. We heard all about him out here for a couple of years and the reason the Bums traded him away was that they believed they bad better catching prospects than him when a trade developed. That the Dodgers didn't spoke volumes just how defensively challenged he was. His forte was supposed to be his hitting. Apparently, the Guardians thought the same and now trying to move him around the diamond trying to get his bat in the lineup---a bat that, BTW, has underachieved the past few seasons. As for framing he might be better than Salty; who isn't? Yet Jarrod knows Boston, can play here, knows the pitchers and has improved on both ends of the diamond the past three seasons. He will not be replaced by someone all around better on the Red Sox if we don't resign him; he will be replaced by someone worse.

[seabeachfred]

Here's one set of pitch framing numbers for 2013. It shows Salty as a little below average. It shows Santana as worse than Salty. Hanigan is one of the better ones.

 

http://statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

 

Bellhorn, just keep this in mind. User just disagreed with me because he wanted to disagree with me. I'm onto his game. I knew Santana was a poor defender because he heard all about him out here in LA when he was in the Dodger farm system. User is just like that guy Boomer who I used to tangle with on Sawxheads. He argued with me just to argue even if he didn't know what the hell he was talking about. At least User knows baseball for the most part, but he sure as hell didn't know Santana.

[win red sox]

Can't you trade a prospect as a PTNL? Trading one top 150 prospects for a poor defensive 1B with a .800 OPS was bad enough, but adding a top 100 prospect on top of him? Yikes.

 

Santana's 135 wRC+ would be tied for 8th among all 1B(Napoli's was 129). Napoli's uzr rating in 2012 at 1B was in -14.4 in 207.2 innings, Santana's uzr in 2013 was -16.5 in 215 innings, so about the same. Im sure Napoli knowing that he would be a full time 1B prior to the season and working in Spring training, helped tremendously. I think that Santana has about 30million left on his contract through 2017, is he worth 2 top 100 prospects? If the sox could get him for Ranaudo and Betts I would pull the trigger on that.

[seabeachfred]

I know that Fred is going to go nutts should the Sox loose Napoli but you just never know the outcome. Nap's could get injured 1/3 of the way into the 2014 season. Carp or Hart or Nava can come back and kill it. Not worth losing sleep over.

 

I'm upset about it because too many of you are underestimating the value Napoli gives to the Red Sox. Neither Hart nor anyone else brings all the talent and intangibles that Nap does. Remember Hart has missed a whole season and his reputation is inconsistency. Carp is a journeyman and nothing more; he cannot handle a full time job and Nava belongs in the outfield. The Red Sox would be well advised to sign Mike as soon as possible. And for Mike, going to Seattle would be suicide if he wants to play on a winner and be a big run producer. The field is a graveyard for hitters (ask Beltre) and their team is a loser and will remain a loser. That is not for Napoli either.

[seabeachfred]

Corey Hart is a real family man ... he has 4 kids and he said in an interview that where the team has spring training will factor into his decision. He lives in Arizona ... this hurts Bostons chances should he be true to his word and the words reported are true.

 

Hart has also been described as a very nice person and I wonder how that would play on a team with the likes of Pedroia, Gomes, Victorino and others who are not very nice guys on the diamond. If he lives in Arizona let him stay in a warm weather place where the pressure isn't great and he can play totally relaxed. If he tried that tack in Boston and got off to a Crawford like start the fans would eat him alive.....and he might just go into a shell. We should know by now what types can play and succeed here and some of the names I've heard bantered about don't fit that profile---IMHO.

[a700hitter]

Corey Hart is a real family man ... he has 4 kids and he said in an interview that where the team has spring training will factor into his decision. He lives in Arizona ... this hurts Bostons chances should he be true to his word and the words reported are true.

I would be surprised that he did not change that opinion after a year at home with his wife and 4 kids.

[RedSoxNC84]

I would be surprised that he did not change that opinion after a year at home with his wife and 4 kids.

 

I'd be trying to get shipped to the team the farthest away after that!

[User Name]

Bellhorn, just keep this in mind. User just disagreed with me because he wanted to disagree with me. I'm onto his game. I knew Santana was a poor defender because he heard all about him out here in LA when he was in the Dodger farm system. User is just like that guy Boomer who I used to tangle with on Sawxheads. He argued with me just to argue even if he didn't know what the hell he was talking about. At least User knows baseball for the most part, but he sure as hell didn't know Santana.

 

No, this is a load of bull. I am disagreeing with you because prior to his knee injury scouts graded him as a much better defender than Salty. I have provided my rationale as to why Hanigan would be my ideal backstop, but in the event that someone else trades for him i would rather have Santana who is (depending on how much his knee injury affected him) superior to Salty in both aspects of the game. You're the one who doesn't very much know what he's talking about.

 

Honest question: Would you rather have Salty than Santana?

[User Name]

I do agree totally with this post.

 

I could literally not be less surprised.

[Palodios]

Santana's 135 wRC+ would be tied for 8th among all 1B(Napoli's was 129). Napoli's uzr rating in 2012 at 1B was in -14.4 in 207.2 innings, Santana's uzr in 2013 was -16.5 in 215 innings, so about the same. Im sure Napoli knowing that he would be a full time 1B prior to the season and working in Spring training, helped tremendously. I think that Santana has about 30million left on his contract through 2017, is he worth 2 top 100 prospects? If the sox could get him for Ranaudo and Betts I would pull the trigger on that.

 

You're cherrypicking numbers. Napoli's 2012 1B stats? He played 20-something games at first base in 2012. Why not use the stats from his 2013 season where he led the majors in 1B UZR over a full season?

 

And as far as wRC, their career numbers are similar, with Napoli's 129 narrowly beating out Santana's 128.

 

Santana isn't worth two top 150 prospects -- especially if he transitions to first base.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You're cherrypicking numbers. Napoli's 2012 1B stats? He played 20-something games at first base in 2012. Why not use the stats from his 2013 season where he led the majors in 1B UZR over a full season?

 

And as far as wRC, their career numbers are similar, with Napoli's 129 narrowly beating out Santana's 128.

 

Santana isn't worth two top 150 prospects -- especially if he transitions to first base.

 

He's not cherry picking stats. He's showing that Napoli and Santana were similar defensively prior to devoting all time to 1B.

 

And Santana is on a 4 year/30mm contract right now. Perhaps you go Betts and Ranaudo, not Barnes. Either way, you're getting a very good bat at C and likely 1B when Vazquez/Swihart get ready.

 

Napoli is projected to get 4/68, I've recently heard. That's way too much. Santana is a much better player than you're giving him credit for and is on a very team friendly deal.

[User Name]

If he's not going to catch long term, Santana is not worth it to the Red Sox, unless he could transition to 3rd, which i doubt.

[win red sox]

You're cherrypicking numbers. Napoli's 2012 1B stats? He played 20-something games at first base in 2012. Why not use the stats from his 2013 season where he led the majors in 1B UZR over a full season?

 

And as far as wRC, their career numbers are similar, with Napoli's 129 narrowly beating out Santana's 128.

 

Santana isn't worth two top 150 prospects -- especially if he transitions to first base.

 

The point was that the year prior to Napoli being a fulltime 1B his uzr numbers looked similar to Santana's and with a full spring training and knowing that he would be a 1b probably helped him. And referencing the wRC+ I would count on a major regression this year from Napoli as it was carried by his .367 babip, while Santana had a obp of .377 with a .301 babip. I would think that a top 10 1b entering his prime and under team control for 4 more years is worth 2 top 100 prospects.

[Palodios]

He's not cherry picking stats. He's showing that Napoli and Santana were similar defensively prior to devoting all time to 1B.

 

I understand that, but it is very faulty logic. He's saying that because Napoli was an awful first basemen and turned into a very respectable first baseman, that Santana can also make a huge turnaround. Trading two big chips for a .800 OPS bat -- especially one at 1B -- just seems like a bad idea to me.

 

I also don't think Napoli will come anywhere near 70 million. Last offseason, he was only one year removed from a 1.046 OPS season, and he still got 3/39.... I mean 1/5 guaranteed.

[Palodios]

The point was that the year prior to Napoli being a fulltime 1B his uzr numbers looked similar to Santana's and with a full spring training and knowing that he would be a 1b probably helped him. And referencing the wRC+ I would count on a major regression this year from Napoli as it was carried by his .367 babip, while Santana had a obp of .377 with a .301 babip. I would think that a top 10 1b entering his prime and under team control for 4 more years is worth 2 top 100 prospects.

 

The last time the Red Sox traded 2 top 100 prospects, they got back Adrian Gonzalez, coming off a .900 OPS/.400 OBP season, already with 2 gold gloves at the position and entering his prime. I wouldn't consider Santana in the same class as 2010 Agon, even with the nice contract.

[win red sox]

The last time the Red Sox traded 2 top 100 prospects, they got back Adrian Gonzalez, coming off a .900 OPS/.400 OBP season, already with 2 gold gloves at the position and entering his prime. I wouldn't consider Santana in the same class as 2010 Agon, even with the nice contract.

 

Just curious, but how are those prospects doing?

[mvp 78]

Bellhorn, just keep this in mind. User just disagreed with me because he wanted to disagree with me. I'm onto his game. I knew Santana was a poor defender because he heard all about him out here in LA when he was in the Dodger farm system. User is just like that guy Boomer who I used to tangle with on Sawxheads. He argued with me just to argue even if he didn't know what the hell he was talking about. At least User knows baseball for the most part, but he sure as hell didn't know Santana.

 

Fred, 2008 called, they want their scouting report back.