2014 Roster Projections

[marklmw]

The Twins seem to be high on him right now. His market has increased quite a bit with the overpays of McCann and Ruiz.

 

Nothing could make me happier then to see Salty sign with Twinkies and for a lot of money. I hope that he does well there as he is family. IMO it is better for the Sox long term to let him go. If we are not going to over-pay Ellsbury why over-pay Salty. The catcher position is different than any other.

I came up with a guide to rating players against each other by position I might apply the following weighting ... of course there are always exceptions to the rule:

 

Catcher: 35% offense, 65% defense.

CF & SS: 50% offense, 50% defense.

RF, 3B, 2B: 65% offense, 35% defense.

1B & LF: 70% offense, 30% defense.

 

Essentially a club can get away with a light hitting C, SS and CF as more emphasis can be placed on defense. A catcher is directly responsible for 1/2 of the game and at the professional level defense usually wins championships. Jon Lester comes to mind. A club can get away with an average fielding LF or 1B as long as they compensate with the bat. As I say there are always exceptions to the rule but I cannot put Salty in the exception bucket. Feedback is welcome.

Edited November 25, 2013 by marklmw

[Palodios]

Nothing could make me happier then to see Salty sign with Twinkies and for a lot of money. I hope that he does well there as he is family. IMO it is better for the Sox long term to let him go. If we are not going to over-pay Ellsbury why over-pay Salty. The catcher position is different than any other.

I came up with a guide to rating players against each other by position I might apply the following weighting ... of course there are always exceptions to the rule:

 

Catcher: 35% offense, 65% defense.

CF & SS: 50% offense, 50% defense.

RF, 3B, 2B: 65% offense, 35% defense.

1B & LF: 70% offense, 30% defense.

 

Essentially a club can get away with a light hitting C, SS and CF as more emphasis can be placed on defense. A club can get away with an average fielding LF or 1B as long as they compensate with the bat. As I say there are always exceptions to the rule but I cannot put Salty in the exception bucket. Feedback is welcome.

 

I am starting to think that RF at Fenway Park requires more defense than 35%. Having someone with a good arm, and the range of a center fielder helped this team significantly last year.

[marklmw]

I am starting to think that RF at Fenway Park requires more defense than 35%. Having someone with a good arm, and the range of a center fielder helped this team significantly last year.

 

I agree ... and there you have an exception to the rule. RF for the most part however has a guy with a strong arm but also a good bat. Reggie Jackson, Jose Canseco, Dwight Evens, etc. You hardly ever see RF's with terrible offensive numbers.

[dupree]

I think that the SOX may keep Salty in the end. I think the Twins will establish his bench mark and then the Sox either matches it or comes in just a shade lower and resigns him at a home town rate. I think he likes it here and has said he wants to be back here. I could see a projected salary of a 3/33. I like the power he brings but i do understand that his defense needs to be worked on in the offseason and he has improved every season he has been here, whos to say that his defense wont get better for 2014 and into the future.

 

Also i see Napoli as a must. A 3 yr deal with a mutual option for a 4th would get it done. 3/42 would get that done. Or maybe he could come in at the 3/39 deal as he woulda signed last offseason.

 

Drew and Ells are out of here. By all accounts, but i could see the Sox going into the trade market to fill a outfield spot. I think they are seriously kicking the tires on Matt Kemp. He is a CF but prolly needs to move to a corner spot. Ok Vic can play center too so the Sox are in a very good spot with the flexibility they have now. Ok lets say they do deal for Kemp. And the Sox have the pay him 17million per with the Dodgers eating the rest. Kemp gives them the abilty to have a veteran option in CF with being JBJ along and gain experience. And they get the big bat from the right side to put infront of big Papi in the lineup. And then once JBJ is ready move him over to LF.

 

I see Carp as the odd man out in Boston with Nava and Gomes as other options. Nava's ability to play multiple postions gives him greater value.

 

And as far as payroll flexabilty goes I think Jake Peavy is the one trade piece that gets dealt. The Sox made that trade after Buch got hurt and needed that arm for the postseason run. Im glad they made that deal and it paid off big time. Dempster is another piece that i like everyone wants out of here but i dont see anyone making an offer to get him out of here. Sorry to say he will be our 5th starter. Lester, Buch, Lackey, Doub, and Dempster. With Workman as the back up option at the start of the season to see who is pitching well on the farm and at the time Workman can move to the bullpen and spot start.

 

I think that the Sox are slow playing a lot of these deals and letting their FAs go out and establish their value and then come back to work out a deal. Napoli and Salty want to be here let them be here. Also i could see the Sox making a play for Micheal Young as the veteran backup. He is soo flexible and Cherries has already made clear he likes guys who can play multiple positions.

 

2014 is gonna be interesting and Im glad to see soo many deals gotten done already before the Winter Meetings and I cant wait to see what the rest of the Hot Stove season brings.

[Palodios]

I think that the SOX may keep Salty in the end. I think the Twins will establish his bench mark and then the Sox either matches it or comes in just a shade lower and resigns him at a home town rate. I think he likes it here and has said he wants to be back here. I could see a projected salary of a 3/33.

 

If the Red Sox saw Salty as a 11 million dollar player, they would have offered him a QO. I think they see him as a 7 million dollar player.

[SoxFanForsyth]

They will have to trade for Hanigan as he is not a free agent. I am guessing you know that, but your wording is a bit confusing.

 

Yeah I worded that oddly. I should have said "or another acquisition via trade".

 

I just mean I think they stay out of the FA market in terms of C.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Nothing could make me happier then to see Salty sign with Twinkies and for a lot of money. I hope that he does well there as he is family. IMO it is better for the Sox long term to let him go. If we are not going to over-pay Ellsbury why over-pay Salty. The catcher position is different than any other.

I came up with a guide to rating players against each other by position I might apply the following weighting ... of course there are always exceptions to the rule:

 

Catcher: 35% offense, 65% defense.

CF & SS: 50% offense, 50% defense.

RF, 3B, 2B: 65% offense, 35% defense.

1B & LF: 70% offense, 30% defense.

 

Essentially a club can get away with a light hitting C, SS and CF as more emphasis can be placed on defense. A catcher is directly responsible for 1/2 of the game and at the professional level defense usually wins championships. Jon Lester comes to mind. A club can get away with an average fielding LF or 1B as long as they compensate with the bat. As I say there are always exceptions to the rule but I cannot put Salty in the exception bucket. Feedback is welcome.

 

C I agree with. SS, 2B, and CF should all be 55% defense.

 

The fact that you get gold glove caliber D from Pedroia along with strong offensive numbers is why he's so good and gives the Sox such a competitive advantage at the position. It's also why Bogaerts is such a highly rated prospect. That kind of offense doesn't come from those positions very often.

 

Another reason why Mookie Betts is a valuable prospect.

[marklmw]

C I agree with. SS, 2B, and CF should all be 55% defense.

 

The fact that you get gold glove caliber D from Pedroia along with strong offensive numbers is why he's so good and gives the Sox such a competitive advantage at the position. It's also why Bogaerts is such a highly rated prospect. That kind of offense doesn't come from those positions very often.

 

Another reason why Mookie Betts is a valuable prospect.

 

Teams will tolerate a lot with players who can hit. How many players make the HOF based mostly on fielding as the players greatest asset? ... Name me a few ... there are not many. If you move the weighting up to 55% defense for a SS you are actually subtracting from Bogaerts offensive value, same for Pedroia or Cano. On the other hand you would be helping make Drews case based on his stellar play in the field throughout the post season. Of course this was just an exercise for me and it is the Catcher position that I am most focused on right now.

[marklmw]

If the Red Sox saw Salty as a 11 million dollar player, they would have offered him a QO. I think they see him as a 7 million dollar player.

 

Palodios ... I see Salty in the same light ... 6-7M per. 18M/3 or 14M/2

[marklmw]

One more thing ... Napoli was a pleasant surprise at 1B in 2013. That being said it is still his offensive numbers that the FO is concerned about when rounding out the lineup. So with the weighting his defense certainly does not work against him and is a plus but he could be error-less and make one spectacular fielding play after another but if he only produced 10HR's and 65 RBI's he would not be in our discussions for 2014.

[SoxSport]

No question defense is more important up the middle. Now that Salty has been exposed defensively at catching, they are left with loyalty and hitting as the only reasons for signing him. Plus he might get better defensively? They offered him 2 years, which was a surprise to me. Their preference should be a defensive improvement, and that might be Hanigan, who also has hit some before his injuries last year. They will need to make a deal with the Reds, and probably have some competition. I hope they don't get "stuck" with Salty, because they have prospects a year or two away, not to mention Lav, who hasn't played enough to assess.

[Palodios]

One more thing ... Napoli was a pleasant surprise at 1B in 2013. That being said it is still his offensive numbers that the FO is concerned about when rounding out the lineup. So with the weighting his defense certainly does not work against him and is a plus but he could be error-less and make one spectacular fielding play after another but if he only produced 10HR's and 65 RBI's he would not be in our discussions for 2014.

 

UZR may have been a bit kind to Napoli last year, but he seems to be a very passable first baseman. If you look at his career offensive numbers, his 2013 numbers were no outlier -- they were right where they were supposed to be.

 

2013 .259/.360/.482/.842

Career .259/.357/.502/.859

31.5 HRs per 150 games, 160K per 150 games.

 

I see absolutely no reason not to re-sign him -- especially if they can get him for 2 years with an option year that vests if he doesn't lose time due to AVN.

[Bellhorn04]

Palodios ... I see Salty in the same light ... 6-7M per. 18M/3 or 14M/2

 

Salty had a 3.6 WAR per FanGraphs and 2.9 per B-R, which puts his dollar value higher than that.

[User Name]

Salty had a 3.6 WAR per FanGraphs and 2.9 per B-R, which puts his dollar value higher than that.

 

His WAR might have been quite a bit lower had his BABIP not been through the stratosphere.

[BornToRun]

C I agree with. SS, 2B, and CF should all be 55% defense.

 

The fact that you get gold glove caliber D from Pedroia along with strong offensive numbers is why he's so good and gives the Sox such a competitive advantage at the position. It's also why Bogaerts is such a highly rated prospect. That kind of offense doesn't come from those positions very often.

 

Another reason why Mookie Betts is a valuable prospect.

 

What do you think ends up happening with Betts? He's blocked at 2B and a I don't foresee much of an opening at SS/3B either.

Edited November 25, 2013 by BornToRun

[SoxFanForsyth]

What do you think ends up happening with Betts? He's blocked at 2B and a I don't foresee much of an opening at SS/3B either.

 

1 more year of development. Sox hope his breakout continues, he becomes a top 50 prospect and the Sox deal him for an area of need.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Teams will tolerate a lot with players who can hit. How many players make the HOF based mostly on fielding as the players greatest asset? ... Name me a few ... there are not many. If you move the weighting up to 55% defense for a SS you are actually subtracting from Bogaerts offensive value, same for Pedroia or Cano. On the other hand you would be helping make Drews case based on his stellar play in the field throughout the post season. Of course this was just an exercise for me and it is the Catcher position that I am most focused on right now.

 

How do you figure??

 

If teams say "I'll take a lighter hitting player at SS" then guys who can hit are valued even higher.

 

League average wRC+ for 1B: 110

 

League average wRC+ for SS: 85

 

So if you've got a player in Bogaerts who plays SS and posts a 130 wRC+ next year, is he more or less valuable at SS than 1B?

 

It's not taking away his value. It's very much adding to it because he represents a market inefficiency - a SS that is a very good hitter.

[Dojji]

What's the infatuation with Butler? He's not that good.

 

And Dojji, as jung posted above, this is another example of the flaws in your thought process. You've been whining all off-season about the idea of handing the CF job to JBJ then you turn around and present the idea of handing the most important position in the diamond to a rookie with either less experience or upside than JBJ. What?

 

The fundamental difference is that we have Ross to help cover for any adequacies his junior partner shows. In order to get the same advantage in center at the moment we'd need to shift Victorino out of a position that's nearly as tough to defend as center, at least at Fenway, and one which he won a Gold Glove while playing. In order to fix that, we need to jettison one pretty decent player (Carp/Gomes/Nava, all highly worthy) or espose the infield even further by carrying 6 outfielders.

 

I've also been loudly calling for bringing in a stout utility man to cover for any rookie issues at SS/3B while those players are developing in place. It's the same thought process, the only difference is we're approaching the two situations from different angles (in CF/SS we have the rookie but are in need of veteran help, in C we have a veteran, and a glut of rookies, none of which excite, but any of which could be adequate if they are worked with and patience is shown in their development).

Edited November 25, 2013 by Dojji

[SoxFanForsyth]

The fundamental difference is that we have Ross to help cover for any adequacies his junior partner shows. In order to get the same advantage in center at the moment we'd need to shift Victorino out of a position that's nearly as tough to defend as center, at least at Fenway, and one which he won a Gold Glove while playing. In order to fix that, we need to jettison one pretty decent player (Carp/Gomes/Nava, all highly worthy) or espose the infield even further by carrying 6 outfielders.

 

I've also been loudly calling for bringing in a stout utility man to cover for any rookie issues at SS/3B while those players are developing in place. It's the same thought process, the only difference is we're approaching the two situations from different angles (in CF/SS we have the rookie but are in need of veteran help, in C we have a veteran, and a glut of rookies, none of which excite, but any of which could be adequate if they are worked with and patience is shown in their development).

 

This doesn't make sense because this assumes that, if necessary, David Ross can be an everyday catcher. He has no chance at that, certainly not now with his concussion issues.

[Dojji]

What do you think ends up happening with Betts? He's blocked at 2B and a I don't foresee much of an opening at SS/3B either.

 

I see the Sox crossing that bridge when they come to it, to be honest. A move to the outfield isn't out of the question, a move to another infield position either, and to be quite frank about it, Dustin Pedroia will be defying his body type if he's effective much past age 34. he's already sliding gently downhill -- still very very solid, but nowhere near his MVP form in the last 2 years. His run of dominance might be shorter than we hope, and in that case I'd be glad to have a guy like Betts either in the wings, or playing another position on the team, able to slide over if needed.

[Dojji]

This doesn't make sense because this assumes that, if necessary, David Ross can be an everyday catcher. He has no chance at that, certainly not now with his concussion issues.

 

Then that's where you look to upgrade. What you don't do is saddle yourself with 2 over 30 catchers with their own built-in flaws perpetually just because you're terrified of rookie catchers making rookie mistakes. That is failthought personified in my honest opinion.

 

There has to be some point at which you swallow hard, take a deep breath, maybe even a stiff drink, and brace yourself to hand the reins to a young catcher for a few years. Otherwise, just exactly where the hell do you think all the veterans came from?

Edited November 25, 2013 by Dojji

[Palodios]

1 more year of development. Sox hope his breakout continues, he becomes a top 50 prospect and the Sox deal him for an area of need.

 

They may very well trade him this offseason. The only thing preventing them from selling high on him is that when you have a deep farm system it is hard for team to justify trading a star for another team's #10 prospect, even if he did have a .400+ OBP in the minors year with solid defense at a prime position.

[Dojji]

They may very well trade him this offseason. The only thing preventing them from selling high on him is that when you have a deep farm system it is hard for team to justify trading a star for another team's #10 prospect, even if he did have a .400+ OBP in the minors year with solid defense at a prime position.

 

They will have no problem finding a home for betts as things stand right now. You have a ton of guys right now in this league who really should be utility men, playing 2B because of the absolute dearth of talent at that position. I can think of at least 10 teams desperate for real talent at the 2B position. Makes what we have with Pedroia all the more satisfying.

 

That said, I am a little concerned about the fact that Pedroia's offense has dropped slowly but surely each of the last several years. Guys with his body type have to abuse themselves so hard to play at the top level, and Pedroia's no exception here by any means, that they wear out all the faster. Get Pedey into his early 30's and we might have a few unpleasant choices to make. I hope not, but that's the way things are trending right now.

 

Just saying, it doesn't have to be exactly Betts, but having a backup plan at second base wouldn't be the worst thing, not by a long shot. And you have to at least consider the possibiility of when the right time would be to move on from Pedroia altogether. It's not next year, but it's not "never" either

Edited November 25, 2013 by Dojji

[marklmw]

I see the Sox crossing that bridge when they come to it, to be honest. A move to the outfield isn't out of the question, a move to another infield position either, and to be quite frank about it, Dustin Pedroia will be defying his body type if he's effective much past age 34. he's already sliding gently downhill -- still very very solid, but nowhere near his MVP form in the last 2 years. His run of dominance might be shorter than we hope, and in that case I'd be glad to have a guy like Betts either in the wings, or playing another position on the team, able to slide over if needed.

 

Interesting that you say this Dojji ... I love Pedroia but I was attacked when I suggested that signing him to age 38 was not smart. I thought age 36 was just about right.

[Dojji]

I'm no stranger to getting attacked. It's a legitimate pragmatic concern with a player who's about to enter his age 30 season, especially given Pedroia's body type and there's no reason for anyone to rail against someone for bringing it up.

 

If age and off-peak performance is damning when we talk about extending Ellsbury, then it's at least a concern when it comes to Pedroia.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Then that's where you look to upgrade. What you don't do is saddle yourself with 2 over 30 catchers with their own built-in flaws perpetually just because you're terrified of rookie catchers making rookie mistakes. That is failthought personified in my honest opinion.

 

There has to be some point at which you swallow hard, take a deep breath, maybe even a stiff drink, and brace yourself to hand the reins to a young catcher for a few years. Otherwise, just exactly where the hell do you think all the veterans came from?

 

I agree that you need to hand the reins to a young catcher. 100% agree with that.

 

What I don't agree with is that it's Butler or Lavarnway.

 

If you're going to hand the reins to someone, it's going to be to Vazquez in 2015 or Swihart in 2016. Hanigan and Ross act as a stop gap. They're not long term solutions. This year is not the year for a long term solution at C.

 

The Sox LT solutions to C are starting the year in AAA (Vaz) and AA (Swihart). Just like the Sox signed JD Drew to be a bridge to Bogaerts, that's exactly what Hanigan is going to be for Vazquez and Swihart. Hanigan has caught 185 games over the past 2 seasons. That's a ton. He' K's at a rate of 10-12% and pushes an OBP north of .360, all while playing elite defense.

 

I don't know why you don't like the idea of him and Ross splitting duties 2/3 or 3/5 to 1/3 or 2/5.

 

Maybe we just disagree on who the future C is.

[seabeachfred]

I think Lavarnway has a shot to be a solid major leaguer if that bat can come around in a serious way, which I think it can. In limited ABs he quietly hit

 

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[TD=align: right].299[/TD]

[TD=align: right].329[/TD]

[TD=align: right].429[/TD]

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with a positive WAR last year.

 

 

I don't think he has a future here but I still like him. He is obviously below average defensively but I think it's a bit overblown. That game in Houston was a complete albatross and I think you have to throw it out.

 

I've been screaming for a long time to just give Lav a shot at catching for us but it has fallen mostly on deaf ears and it also looks like the front office agrees with most of the posters here that he is not the answer to our catching needs. The guy can hit and hit with power and while he is not a top notch defensive catcher he is better than he was two years ago just as Salty has improved during that time. The other problem with this is that Ryan is a RH hitter and I think it would be more effective for us to have a L and R platoon combo behind the plate. And that fiasco in Houston can also be laid at the feet of one Steven Wright and his God Damn knuckleball----which BTW always needs a special catcher to handle it. We've been through that with Wakefield who stayed three or fours years too long. I still believe Lavarnway could be a very pleasant surprise if given a chance.

[jung]

I don't care who he is, he is not likely catching more than 80 games his first year. As I posted earlier even Tek only caught 75 games his rookie season.

[marklmw]

How do you figure??

 

If teams say "I'll take a lighter hitting player at SS" then guys who can hit are valued even higher.

 

League average wRC+ for 1B: 110

 

League average wRC+ for SS: 85

 

So if you've got a player in Bogaerts who plays SS and posts a 130 wRC+ next year, is he more or less valuable at SS than 1B?

 

It's not taking away his value. It's very much adding to it because he represents a market inefficiency - a SS that is a very good hitter.

 

wRC is an offensive stat ... Bogaerts will still get credit for that stat ... I want to take the 130 and give it a 50% weighting and you want to give the 130 a 45% weighting. I want to give Bogaerts a 50% weighting on his Defensive stat and you wan to give him a 55% weighting on the same defensive stat whatever that might be.

[Dojji]

I agree that you need to hand the reins to a young catcher. 100% agree with that.

 

What I don't agree with is that it's Butler or Lavarnway.

 

If you're going to hand the reins to someone, it's going to be to Vazquez in 2015 or Swihart in 2016. Hanigan and Ross act as a stop gap. They're not long term solutions. This year is not the year for a long term solution at C.

 

The Sox LT solutions to C are starting the year in AAA (Vaz) and AA (Swihart). Just like the Sox signed JD Drew to be a bridge to Bogaerts, that's exactly what Hanigan is going to be for Vazquez and Swihart. Hanigan has caught 185 games over the past 2 seasons. That's a ton. He' K's at a rate of 10-12% and pushes an OBP north of .360, all while playing elite defense.

 

I don't know why you don't like the idea of him and Ross splitting duties 2/3 or 3/5 to 1/3 or 2/5.

 

Maybe we just disagree on who the future C is.

 

I just don't see why bridging the year with Butler or Lavarnway, and Ross or another veteran, is such a scary proposition.