2014 Roster Projections

[jung]

In my opinion the Sox would bring back Salty before they would leave the pitching staff in the hands of a Butler with Ross unable to play that many games behind the plate. Both Butler and Larvarnway probably end up trade bait if Vasquez and Swihart continue to come along...at least Lavarnway. If I had my choice I would keep Butler with Lavarnway turning into part of some trade package at some point in time.

[marklmw]

He has never gone through the grind of a 162 game MLB season. He has never had the MLB pitchers have consistent looks at him and figured out holes in his swing. He has never gone through a stretch where he had to dig himself out, and all the while that he isn't, he's facing either a demotion or he's letting down 35k fans a night.

 

Excelling in a few games in the post season certainly helps. But let's not overvalue those. I'm 100% sure Bogaerts should be your 2014 starting SS, but to suggest that he won't have some rookie lumps to swallow, especially defensively, is silly. And that goes for all 4 of those guys in various ways.

 

I agree with you. There will be some rookie lumps but hardly ever the game costing variety ... I have no issues with going after Hanigan ... Cincy doesn't really need Hanigan ... not sure what the cost will be. I would not give up Brentz ... he has a great arm and legit power. I am not sure that we need Ross any longer if we get a healthy Hanigan. Let Butler have a shot at it.

[Dojji]

Maybe Hanigan is the "something" the Sox will do to get some experience out there every day between him and Ross. Catcher would be a perfect spot for the Sox to do that. Makes sense as I really think they would like to go with XB and JBJ at SS and CF at least for a goodly number of 2014 games. XB at SS, JBJ in CF and Lavarnway behind the plate does nothing for me. Lavarnway still does not know what he is doing back there.

 

I just don't see the need to saddle ourselves with Hanigan. We already have Ross to provide what Hanigan provides. We need to run with a rookie alongside Ross in order to develop that rookie while employing a proper safety net. To do otherwise is to focus too much on the immediate best interest at the expense of long term priorities.

 

As for our youth up the middle, I propose bringing in a soild veteran backup infielder to alleviate the problem -- which problem isn't nearly as drastic as people are letting on.

[jung]

I just don't see the need to saddle ourselves with Hanigan. We already have Ross to provide what Hanigan provides. We need to run with a rookie alongside Ross in order to develop that rookie while employing a proper safety net. To do otherwise is to focus too much on the immediate best interest at the expense of long term priorities.

 

As for our youth up the middle, I propose bringing in a soild veteran backup infielder to alleviate the problem -- which problem isn't nearly as drastic as people are letting on.

 

I don't see the Sox turning over the pitching staff to one of these young catchers with Ross's playing time considerably curtailed by his age. I think the chances of that are slim and none which is why I would not be surprised to see the Sox go after Hanigan and try to kill two birds with one stone. As I said earlier I think the Sox would bite the bullet and bring Salty back on some sort of two year deal before they would turn over the entire pitching staff to some young kid that has either played a very limited number of ML games or that has played none at all.

 

If Ross were just a tad younger they could probably pull that one off. Ross could be the teacher to whatever young catcher is the pupil but Ross would probably have to catch something like 80 regular season games or so to make that work. He is probably about two years past being able to do something like that. Two years ago Ross caught 62 and a little more than half that last year. That is just not enough playing time to turn the staff over to one of these younger guys. Lavs is the closest and he is a waste of time IMO.

 

I suspect Lavs ends up trade bait at some point.

[marklmw]

I just don't see the need to saddle ourselves with Hanigan. We already have Ross to provide what Hanigan provides. We need to run with a rookie alongside Ross in order to develop that rookie while employing a proper safety net. To do otherwise is to focus too much on the immediate best interest at the expense of long term priorities.

 

As for our youth up the middle, I propose bringing in a soild veteran backup infielder to alleviate the problem -- which problem isn't nearly as drastic as people are letting on.

 

Dojji ... Is Ross signed for 2014? I really know little about Hanigan but he might be an upgrade over Ross and perhaps a worthy 2 year signing where Ross is at the very end of his career. IMO a Ross / Hanigan duo does not make much sense. Butler should be given an opportunity one way or another. Vasquez needs more time at AAA level but he could make a push by mid year. I have said many times that our club is poised for 2015 to 2020 and not so much for 2014. But hell you never know we could be in for another surprise next year as well.

Edited November 25, 2013 by marklmw

[Dojji]

Dojji ... Is Ross signed for 2014?

yes

 

I don't see the Sox turning over the pitching staff to one of these young catchers with Ross's playing time considerably curtailed by his age.

 

You are going to have to trust one of those young catchers eventually. Varitek was a rookie once. We've just won a freaking World Series, that's as good a time as any to let the youth play out a bit before overreacting to an experience deficit.

[jung]

You are going to have to trust one of those young catchers eventually. Varitek was a rookie once. We've just won a freaking World Series, that's as good a time as any to let the youth play out a bit before overreacting to an experience deficit.

Which is why I think you trust JBJ and XB. Put them out there and don't look back. But you start treating catching like that and now you are monkeying around with a whole nuther' aspect of the game, the pitching staff. I still would not mind it if Ross were a legit safety net but he is not...just too old to catch that many games.

 

The only other thing that makes any sense...just barely, would be to toss Lavs out there and hope he shows something over the course of the year that adds to his trade value. Then try to turn that into something meaningful in trade for 2015. Lavs might be able to struggle through 2014 and you might just have something to trade at the end of it. Other than that there is no formula that really works for 2014 at this point at least within the organization as it is today.

 

By the way, Jason Varitek caught 75 games in his rookie season....just about right for a young catcher trying to learn the ropes. If Ross could catch the other end of a guy catching 75 games, we would be in business.

Edited November 25, 2013 by jung

[User Name]

What's the infatuation with Butler? He's not that good.

 

And Dojji, as jung posted above, this is another example of the flaws in your thought process. You've been whining all off-season about the idea of handing the CF job to JBJ then you turn around and present the idea of handing the most important position in the diamond to a rookie with either less experience or upside than JBJ. What?

[User Name]

For the record, Ryan Hanigan is better than Salty in every aspect of the game except power (even has a higher WAR since 2009, although he has less games played), is an elite defender per both SABR and scouts, and is cheap.

 

Since the Sox' main catching prospects aren't ready for 2014 and Butler and Lavarnway aren't good enough to start, the move only makes sense, since he could move on to a mentor role to Vasquez come 2015. This isn't groupthink or whatever else you can come up with to justify your thought process, it's common sense.

[SoxFanForsyth]

What's the infatuation with Butler? He's not that good.

 

And Dojji, as jung posted above, this is another example of the flaws in your thought process. You've been whining all off-season about the idea of handing the CF job to JBJ then you turn around and present the idea of handing the most important position in the diamond to a rookie with either less experience or upside than JBJ. What?

 

+ 1

[marklmw]

How about we begin the season with Ross and Hanigan? Maybe keep Lavarway up as a bat and occasional start. Could the Sox afford to have all 3 up at the same time. Or if the Sox do acquire Hanigan do they try to deal Lavarnway?

[SoxFanForsyth]

How about we begin the season with Ross and Hanigan? Maybe keep Lavarway up as a bat and occasional start. Could the Sox afford to have all 3 up at the same time. Or if the Sox do acquire Hanigan do they try to deal Lavarnway?

 

This is what everyone has been trying to say. Go with Ross and Hanigan.

 

They're not redundant because Ross cannot play more than 55-65 games. Hanigan can play the other 95-105 games. Both are excellent defensive catchers.

 

Plain and simple, there's a difference between having a rookie SS and CF, and then having a rookie C who impacts the pitching staff. When you call up a rookie catcher, you don't play him 105 games. You play him in about 55 games so he can get used to the pitching staff. It's not like other positions. He needs to build a relationship with the pitchers. It's more than just throwing fingers down. There's a rhythm that pitchers get into during a game that is very dependent on the relationship they have with their catcher.

[marklmw]

This is what everyone has been trying to say. Go with Ross and Hanigan.

 

They're not redundant because Ross cannot play more than 55-65 games. Hanigan can play the other 95-105 games. Both are excellent defensive catchers.

 

Plain and simple, there's a difference between having a rookie SS and CF, and then having a rookie C who impacts the pitching staff. When you call up a rookie catcher, you don't play him 105 games. You play him in about 55 games so he can get used to the pitching staff. It's not like other positions. He needs to build a relationship with the pitchers. It's more than just throwing fingers down. There's a rhythm that pitchers get into during a game that is very dependent on the relationship they have with their catcher.

 

Right ... Then the Sox will more than likely deal Lavarway or Butler ... IMO doing either one a favor and opportunity some place else. So I guess we are on the Hanigan watch now ... I really know very little about him and have never seen him catch.

[a700hitter]

Did LL say that we were in on Hannigan who would be paired with Ross? Maybe they let Ross walk and pair Hannigan with Lavarnway. I agree with Doji that Hannigan and Roiss would be redundant. I'd prefer to have on or ther other paired with Lavarnway to see what he has at the MLB level.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Did LL say that we were in on Hannigan who would be paired with Ross? Maybe they let Ross walk and pair Hannigan with Lavarnway. I agree with Doji that Hannigan and Roiss would be redundant. I'd prefer to have on or ther other paired with Lavarnway to see what he has at the MLB level.

 

Didn't specify, but why would we DFA Ross? Not sure I see the logic in that. Lavarnway/Butler aren't going anywhere unless the Sox trade one of them, so if Ross or Hanigan gets hurt, you've got depth.

 

Ross is signed for 2014 already, so I'm not sure I understand DFA'ing him.

[jung]

I would bet anything that the Sox will be looking to deal Lavarnway at some point pretty near term, either this year or next. I don't think he is progressing fast enough and the guys behind him are starting to catch up pretty quickly.

 

If in fact the stories of his believing his own press clippings about being a HR hitter are true then that is a real shame. It surely did set him back offensively at a time when the Sox appeared willing to allow him to continue to grow into the catching roll as long as he could hit. He is a nice enough guy and all but I just think the Sox are going to see him as the guy left without a chair when the music stops given the number of catchers they have in the organization.

[User Name]

Hanigan has a .359 career OBP. How is that redundant with Ross, who can't hit?

[a700hitter]

Didn't specify, but why would we DFA Ross? Not sure I see the logic in that. Lavarnway/Butler aren't going anywhere unless the Sox trade one of them, so if Ross or Hanigan gets hurt, you've got depth.

 

Ross is signed for 2014 already, so I'm not sure I understand DFA'ing him.

 

I had forgotten that we had signed Ross for 2 years.

[DirtDog]

I say you go with what you know and what works. Salty was solid here and made strides every year here on both offense and defense and won a world series here. Even an above average catcher like that is hard to find. He's also really settled in working with this pitching staff. I'd pay him even 3/40 if that's what it takes to get it done. The Red Sox CAN afford that. In 2015 or 2016 you can AFFORD to eat that final year and/or trade him. Vazquez and Swihart look like solid prospects but neither really projects to a higher ceiling than Salty (although I would say Vasquez does look like a far better defensive player than Salty will ever be. There is always the chance that both of them can flop. Neither has yet to prove they can hit MLB pitching yet. Remember at the end of 2011 we were all ready to anoint Lavarnway to basically replace Varitek and eventually ORTIZ... lol? Injuries happen and I wouldn't be surprised to see some games at catcher open up this year for any of the prospects. I mean, how long was Ross out with a concussion last year?

[Palodios]

Anyone else think we are overvaluing the farm system right now? I'll give it to Xander, who could very well be the top prospect in the majors right now. Bradley might be a solid centerfielder to replace Ellsbury too, but that will be one of the early challenges of next year's team.

 

Sure Lavarnway has a .379 OBP in AAA, but does he really have a good enough glove to catch full time?

[Bellhorn04]

Sure Lavarnway has a .379 OBP in AAA, but does he really have a good enough glove to catch full time?

 

There's no reason to think so.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Anyone else think we are overvaluing the farm system right now? I'll give it to Xander, who could very well be the top prospect in the majors right now. Bradley might be a solid centerfielder to replace Ellsbury too, but that will be one of the early challenges of next year's team.

 

Sure Lavarnway has a .379 OBP in AAA, but does he really have a good enough glove to catch full time?

 

I think Lavarnway and Butler are being overvalued.

 

I think Vazquez and Swihart are legit prospects with a ton of upside.

 

The Sox farm system has a good chance to have 9 or 10 guys in the top 100 listings, with Bogaerts, Bradley, Cecchini, Barnes, Ranaudo, Owens, Ball, Swihart, Betts, & Webster. This is as strong of a farm system as I can remember the Sox having in a very, very long time.

 

All of these guys, outside of Ball, will be starting 2014 in AA or AAA, too.

[DirtDog]

I think Lavarnway has a shot to be a solid major leaguer if that bat can come around in a serious way, which I think it can. In limited ABs he quietly hit

 

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable]

[TR=class: full hl, bgcolor: #FFFFAA !important]

[TD=align: right].299[/TD]

[TD=align: right].329[/TD]

[TD=align: right].429[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

with a positive WAR last year.

 

 

I don't think he has a future here but I still like him. He is obviously below average defensively but I think it's a bit overblown. That game in Houston was a complete albatross and I think you have to throw it out.

[DirtDog]

Speaking of that Houston game, is it safe to say moving forward that the Steven Wright era in Boston is over?

[marklmw]

I think Lavarnway has a shot to be a solid major leaguer if that bat can come around in a serious way, which I think it can. In limited ABs he quietly hit

 

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable]

[TR=class: full hl, bgcolor: #FFFFAA !important]

[TD=align: right].299[/TD]

[TD=align: right].329[/TD]

[TD=align: right].429[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

with a positive WAR last year.

 

 

I don't think he has a future here but I still like him. He is obviously below average defensively but I think it's a bit overblown. That game in Houston was a complete albatross and I think you have to throw it out.

 

Nice presentation with the boxes DD.

[DirtDog]

Nice presentation with the boxes DD.

Wasn't that hard, directly copied from baseball reference... hahah

[marklmw]

People ... I really do not see Salty signing with us. For the catcher position his offensive numbers are pretty good ... so why are not other teams knocking down the door for him. The very same reason why Boston is not knocking down the door for him. Hell, last season Salty set a record for Doubles by a Boston catcher ... more than Tech or Fisk ever accomplished.

[Palodios]

People ... I really do not see Salty signing with us. For the catcher position his offensive numbers are pretty good ... so why are not other teams knocking down the door for him. The very same reason why Boston is not knocking down the door for him. Hell, last season Salty set a record for Doubles by a Boston catcher ... more than Tech or Fisk ever accomplished.

 

The Twins seem to be high on him right now. His market has increased quite a bit with the overpays of McCann and Ruiz.

[SoxFanForsyth]

IMO, the Sox will end up with either Hanigan or an acquisition via trade.

 

I really think they land Hanigan, though.

[Spitball]

IMO, the Sox will end up with either Hanigan or an acquisition via trade.

 

I really think they land Hanigan, though.

 

They will have to trade for Hanigan as he is not a free agent. I am guessing you know that, but your wording is a bit confusing.