2014 Roster Projections

[win red sox]

I would not make that deal. Santana is not much of a defensive upgrade from Salty. Doubront is on the edge of a break-out.

 

Actually you can make the argument that Salty is the better defensive catcher, but the Sox are losing a ton of offense this offseason with the losses of Ellsbury, Napoli, Salty, and Drew(7th in the major leagues for ss with a 109 wRC+). A full year of XB, a bounce back year for WMB, and a healthy Pedroia will help but I expect regression from Nava, Victorino, and Ortiz(eventually he has to slow down). Santana had a better wRC+ than Napoli and he gives the Sox a bridge year at Catcher and is potentially your 1B of the future. While I'm a huge supporter of Doubront, I don't think the FO is a big fan of his.

 

edit: just saw the Guardians have Santana working at 3B in Dominican winter ball.

[User Name]

I would not make that deal. Santana is not much of a defensive upgrade from Salty. Doubront is on the edge of a break-out.

 

Ho ho ho yes he is.

[User Name]

Actually you can make the argument that Salty is the better defensive catcher, but the Sox are losing a ton of offense this offseason with the losses of Ellsbury, Napoli, Salty, and Drew(7th in the major leagues for ss with a 109 wRC+). A full year of XB, a bounce back year for WMB, and a healthy Pedroia will help but I expect regression from Nava, Victorino, and Ortiz(eventually he has to slow down). Santana had a better wRC+ than Napoli and he gives the Sox a bridge year at Catcher and is potentially your 1B of the future. While I'm a huge supporter of Doubront, I don't think the FO is a big fan of his.

 

edit: just saw the Guardians have Santana working at 3B in Dominican winter ball.

 

I doubt you can.

[Bellhorn04]

Defensive metrics for catchers are pretty damn confusing, to me anyway. FanGraphs shows Salty at +7.3 runs defensively, 13th best, and Santana at -9.2 runs. I have no clue what these numbers are worth. Plus nobody can measure game-calling ability. Edited November 26, 2013 by Bellhorn04

[Palodios]

Defensive metrics for catchers are pretty damn confusing, to me anyway. FanGraphs shows Salty at +7.3 runs defensively, 13th best, and Santana at -9.2 runs. I have no clue what these numbers are worth. Plus nobody can measure game-calling ability.

 

I'm sure one of the stat gurus can explain it better than I can, but from what I understand, the stats they use to evaluate defense don't apply to catchers, so the defense stats (and WAR in general) aren't all that accurate for catchers.

[User Name]

I'm sure one of the stat gurus can explain it better than I can, but from what I understand, the stats they use to evaluate defense don't apply to catchers, so the defense stats (and WAR in general) aren't all that accurate for catchers.

 

Bingo.

[marklmw]

Defensive metrics for catchers are pretty damn confusing, to me anyway. FanGraphs shows Salty at +7.3 runs defensively, 13th best, and Santana at -9.2 runs. I have no clue what these numbers are worth. Plus nobody can measure game-calling ability.

 

I will guess that -9.2 > +7.3 when you are discussing defense. You are correct that Santana can eventually transition to 1B in 4 years when Nap's is gone. I just cannot bear to watch Salty next season turn pitches that are strikes in the Amica strike zone into balls. It's bad enough that he never turns borderline pitches into strikes. I guess you know that I pitched a little in my younger days.

Edited November 26, 2013 by marklmw

[seabeachfred]

I would not make that deal. Santana is not much of a defensive upgrade from Salty. Doubront is on the edge of a break-out.

 

Glad someone finally mentioned that Santana is a miserable defensive catcher. That's the reason the Guardians moved him to DH; he is also a very poor first baseman. It we are thinking of that mediocrity we might as well stay with Salty. At least he knows our pitching staff and has proven he can play in Boston. I know I hit that "can he play in Boston" but we have seen over the years that many players who come to the Red Sox simply cannot handle the pressure and demands of playing in this baseball crazed city---and that is something I'm sure the front office is well aware of......or should be.

[Dojji]

No thanks to Salty.

 

He had a nice run here but his K's and, improved but still sub par defense can go sign somewhere else.

 

If Hanigan isn't available, explore some trades

 

 

How many options at catcher do you think actually exist? there's definitely more catching jobs than there are catchers worth half a damn.

[SeanJohn93]

Per mlb trade rumors.com

 

Here's the latest out of Beantown, with plenty of information straight from Red Sox GM Ben Cherington and club CEO and president Larry Lucchino:

 

Cherington touched on a range of issues in comments to the media today, as reported by Alex Speier of WEEI.com. Boston feels confident improved production from the left side of its infield with in-house options like Will Middlebrooks and Xander Bogaerts, says Cherington. But he said the club will look to add "at least somebody on the left side of the infield. Whether that's more in the form of an everyday player or depth, whatever that is, it just depends on how the rest of our offseason unfolds."

With an attractive set of starting pitchers under contract, Cherington acknowledged that the team has received interest. "We've had a number of conversations and I think it's no secret, one area we have a little bit of depth in is the rotation," he said, adding that it remains to be seen "what that means for [the Red Sox]" since the club is wary of leaving itself too thin in the event of an unexpected injury.

The club will be "a little choosy, a little selective" about addressing its catching need, said Cherington, given its "pretty strong position long-term with the young catching we have in the organization."

On the overall market, also via Speier, Lucchino sums things up succinctly: "everyone is expecting [the market] will go up because nothing ever goes down and because there's new television money available." While the club would like to keep down its long-term commitments, he says, and "still value the draft picks enormously," he acknowledged that a "diverse portfolio of contracts" will include some that are "longer than you want."

Ultimately, according to Lucchino, the Red Sox "are not going to be a stand-pat team." Explaining that he "learned a long time ago that you can't fall in love with your veterans," Lucchino said that each the club "will have a different personality, composition as well as personality."

One free agent that has obviously been tied to Boston is last year's first baseman, Mike Napoli. Opining that a reasonable projected value for Napoli (using various WAR projections and dollars-per-win figures) could reach as high as $80MM total over the next four years, SI.com's Jay Jaffe ultimately settles on predicting an eye-popping four-year, $68MM deal for the slugger.

[SeanJohn93]

I personally feel that 4 years 68 mill is too much for Napoli. I wouldn't mind 13 million a year but 4 years is 2 years too much for me. Maybe have a club option for the 3rd year but that's about it.

[User Name]

Glad someone finally mentioned that Santana is a miserable defensive catcher. That's the reason the Guardians moved him to DH; he is also a very poor first baseman. It we are thinking of that mediocrity we might as well stay with Salty. At least he knows our pitching staff and has proven he can play in Boston. I know I hit that "can he play in Boston" but we have seen over the years that many players who come to the Red Sox simply cannot handle the pressure and demands of playing in this baseball crazed city---and that is something I'm sure the front office is well aware of......or should be.

 

No, the Guardians moved Santana to DH because he was coming back from a knee injury, and the catcher they currently have is a great defender, while Santana grades out around average. He's also a hell of a better pitch-framer than Salty.

[Bellhorn04]

Here's one set of pitch framing numbers for 2013. It shows Salty as a little below average. It shows Santana as worse than Salty. Hanigan is one of the better ones.

 

http://statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

[User Name]

Get Hanigan plz

[marklmw]

Here's one set of pitch framing numbers for 2013. It shows Salty as a little below average. It shows Santana as worse than Salty. Hanigan is one of the better ones.

 

http://statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

 

Catchers are hard to analyze for sure. Lucroy is tops at receiving the ball but his caught stealing rate is dismal. Are there no more Molina's to be found

Edited November 26, 2013 by marklmw

[marklmw]

Get Hanigan plz

 

Amen UN ... Hanigan seems to be the best option.

[marklmw]

After looking at MLB catchers it does seem that the McCann deal to the Yankees was a pretty dam good move. Sure they may have overpaid a little but only marginally based on the needs of the team and how the Stadium is built for left handed hitters. Catchers who can hit and fields are very rare indeed. Boston can only hope that Vasquez continues to develop offensively as he is a very valuable commodity.

[jung]

NY literally set the market for this year's FA catchers though. We tend to almost think of this as play money but IMO GM's would consider $1-$2M per year over the market a big overpay. Heck these guys squabble over $250k in a contract.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If Napoli is going to get 4/68 or 3/52, then go get Corey Hart for ~QO money (1/14mm) and call it a day.

[win red sox]

If Napoli is going to get 4/68 or 3/52, then go get Corey Hart for ~QO money (1/14mm) and call it a day.

 

I wonder if he is holding out for a multi year contract? If the Sox could get him on a 1 year contract and get the draft pick, plus get Hanigan, I would deem this a successful offseason.

 

edit: plus the sox could possibly turn Hart into a draft pick the following year.

[Palodios]

If Napoli is going to get 4/68 or 3/52, then go get Corey Hart for ~QO money (1/14mm) and call it a day.

 

All the big spenders already have first basemen. Unless Seattle or Colorado decide to overpay big time, I don't see him getting 4 years from anyone else.

[SoxFanForsyth]

All the big spenders already have first basemen. Unless Seattle or Colorado decide to overpay big time, I don't see him getting 4 years from anyone else.

 

Rosenthal reporting today that the Mariners may go 3 years on Napoli, at which point the Red Sox would likely turn away and pursue other options.

 

Given the emergence of Carp and Nava, the Red Sox could stand pat at 1B if there is a bigger upgrade available in LF.

[Palodios]

Rosenthal reporting today that the Mariners may go 3 years on Napoli, at which point the Red Sox would likely turn away and pursue other options.

 

Given the emergence of Carp and Nava, the Red Sox could stand pat at 1B if there is a bigger upgrade available in LF.

 

Those bastards and their protected 6th overall pick.

[marklmw]

Those bastards and their protected 6th overall pick.

The Sox will still pick-up a compensation pick between the 1st and 2nd round.

[marklmw]

If Napoli is going to get 4/68 or 3/52, then go get Corey Hart for ~QO money (1/14mm) and call it a day.

 

Based on Corey Harts Medical Report maybe Boston will offer him a multi- year deal with x % guaranteed. Anyway it looks like Boston would have been smart to keep the original contract with Napoli in place to begin with. You just never know how things will turn out.

[Bellhorn04]

Anyway it looks like Boston would have been smart to keep the original contract with Napoli in place to begin with. You just never know how things will turn out.

 

Or put in a vesting option for a second year. It's quite possible they offered one and Napoli turned it down.

[marklmw]

Or put in a vesting option for a second year. It's quite possible they offered one and Napoli turned it down.

Anyway ... we got our Championship ... I think that Hart if healthy again will be a monster in Fenway. Also, the kid we draft with our Napoli compensation pick is going to be a future Hall Of Famer. How do you like those apples?

[jung]

I know I said this about the really long ten year deals last year and I am not contending that we will not see 10 year deals ever again. But, If we do see them I think they will be for very young players that are also so good that a team wants to tie themselves to the player for terms like ten years. Doesn't it feel like the whole discussion has been ratcheted back at least one notch now though? Seven years now seems like a really long contract, five seems long and even four and three seem like terms teams are dragged to as opposed to seeking. Now it seems like two years is the sweet spot, with some players deemed worthy of three and near deity status required to get teams talking about five or six years.

[Palodios]

The Sox will still pick-up a compensation pick between the 1st and 2nd round.

 

Sure, but it is a whole lot easier for a team like the Mariners to overbid on a player when you're only giving up a second rounder.

[marklmw]

Sure, but it is a whole lot easier for a team like the Mariners to overbid on a player when you're only giving up a second rounder.

 

I know that Fred is going to go nutts should the Sox loose Napoli but you just never know the outcome. Nap's could get injured 1/3 of the way into the 2014 season. Carp or Hart or Nava can come back and kill it. Not worth losing sleep over.