2014 Roster Projections

[redsoxfan3]

Why? Do you really think Drew is going to lie down and die between now and age 34? Most players tend to be able to be productive through their early 30's and Drew going into his age 31 season doesn't alarm me from a decline standpoint. The AAV is a little high but that should be something you can talk down at least a little.

 

A 4 year contract for a guy coming off his age 30 season who demonstrated that he is relatively healthy and back to his old playing form -- a form that makes him near-elite for his position -- shouldn't alarm anyone who knows what they're paying for.

 

I was referring to the AAV being too high at 4 years. I think a 3 to 4 year contract is what Drew will get. What I said was outlandish is the years for the 8 year contract. I never said 4 was too many.

[Spitball]

This isn't Theo Epstein's era ... it's Theo Epstein's lieutenants. Cherington won using the 4th highest payroll in baseball, the team leaders from the 2007 team and the former pitching coach and PawSox managers who he and his boss brought in. 2013 didn't repudiate the Theo Epstein era, it reinforced it.

 

It is a silly argument, but Cherington got rid of three big Epstein's expensive mistakes...which I believe trumps your three points.

 

Btw, Epstein recently admitted he made a mistake in signing Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52MM contract last winter. Jackson was 8-18 with a 4.98 ERA over 175 1/3 IP in 2013. It was one of the worst signings of the last off-season.

Edited November 9, 2013 by Spitball

[Palodios]

The Red Sox heavily favor talent, and draft position. Guys like Xander and Jackie will get every opportunity, but others (mostly Dojji-type prospects) like Nava need to do their best at every single opportunity, or else they get stuck in the system.

 

Compare Britton and Workman:

 

Workman, 2nd round draft choice, 6.97 ERA in the regular season as a reliever. Sneaks into the postseason, 8.2 IP, 0 ER.

 

Britton, 18th round pick, 3.82 ERA in the regular season as a reliever. Franklin "Big Game" Morales got the nod ahead of him. Morales was the only member on the postseason roster who simply added no value to the team.

[marklmw]

The Red Sox heavily favor talent, and draft position. Guys like Xander and Jackie will get every opportunity, but others (mostly Dojji-type prospects) like Nava need to do their best at every single opportunity, or else they get stuck in the system.

 

Compare Britton and Workman:

 

Workman, 2nd round draft choice, 6.97 ERA in the regular season as a reliever. Sneaks into the postseason, 8.2 IP, 0 ER.

 

Britton, 18th round pick, 3.82 ERA in the regular season as a reliever. Franklin "Big Game" Morales got the nod ahead of him. Morales was the only member on the postseason roster who simply added no value to the team.

It would not surprise me if teams have contacted Boston about Nava.

[marklmw]

While Dempster ('the money') was on mopup duty.

 

Sox would have been better off with JBJ over Dempster.

[User Name]

It is a silly argument, but Cherington got rid of three big Epstein's expensive mistakes...which I believe trumps your three points.

 

Btw, Epstein recently admitted he made a mistake in signing Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52MM contract last winter. Jackson was 8-18 with a 4.98 ERA over 175 1/3 IP in 2013. It was one of the worst signings of the last off-season.

 

Crawford and Lackey were Lucchino guys.

[Spitball]

Crawford and Lackey were Lucchino guys.

 

Well, Epstein's hands were not clean with Crawford. Epstein favored the deal and was the one who called Henry in Liverpool, England, and asked for the owner to sign off on the $142 million required to get the deal done.

[sk7326]

It is a silly argument, but Cherington got rid of three big Epstein's expensive mistakes...which I believe trumps your three points.

 

Btw, Epstein recently admitted he made a mistake in signing Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52MM contract last winter. Jackson was 8-18 with a 4.98 ERA over 175 1/3 IP in 2013. It was one of the worst signings of the last off-season.

 

It was not good - although $13M a year is a fair contract for proven innings soakers like Jackson. Dempster was a much better value obviously. His record was not perfect - but it would be disingenuous or stupid to mention the past without noting it's the best decade in modern Red Sox history. It was when they went away from it that it got muddled up. Indeed, in 2011 they were a 90 win team that got crushed by injuries in the pitching staff. That the media narrative became the folklore does not mean it actually was true.

[Palodios]

It was not good - although $13M a year is a fair contract for proven innings soakers like Jackson. Dempster was a much better value obviously. His record was not perfect - but it would be disingenuous or stupid to mention the past without noting it's the best decade in modern Red Sox history. It was when they went away from it that it got muddled up. Indeed, in 2011 they were a 90 win team that got crushed by injuries in the pitching staff. That the media narrative became the folklore does not mean it actually was true.

 

I kept talking about this when the Red Sox signed John Lackey. There are times when your organization simply needs the innings. Jackson had one of his usual meh years, but when you have your next wave of young pitchers coming up from the minors, you might want to rush them, but not THAT much. Soaking up the innings helps when bridging the gap.

[a700hitter]

Epstein is a non-entity as far as I am concerned. He's a suit from the past. Unlike a former player from glory days, he will not be invited back to take bows or trot out on the field with a jersey on to throw out a first pitch. In 2 seasons with the Cubs he finished next to last with 100 losses and followed that up with a last place finish. If he doesn't get the team above .500 in year 3, I think Cubs fans will become really disenchanted with his program. IMO he took the wrong guy with him when he took Hoyer. I am glad that he left us with Ben the Boob.

[Spitball]

Epstein has recently admitted that he made a mistake in signing Jackson when his team was still years away from contending. And Jackson didn't live up to his "innings eater" reputation as he averaged less than 6 innings per start.

[RedSoxNC84]

I just can't really think of any prospect that was blocked for a meaningful amount of time.

 

Considering Workman, Webster, Wilson, JBJ and a couple others got several looks, I'd agree with this.

[redsoxrules]

Choo seeking more than 126M.

Lol, good luck with that. I hope the f*** no one is signed close to what Boras wants for any of his client.

[Dojji]

It would not surprise me if teams have contacted Boston about Nava.

 

Me neither. you have to think that the Sox are investigating keeping ellsbury, and the best way to keep Ellsbury without abandoning the value they have in JBJ, is to use JBJ in left at Nava's expense.

 

there is simply nothing Nava does on this roster that another player can't theoretically do better, and that's the sad truth. He's had a good enough year that he ought to have established some value, especially since the one thing he does really well (OBP) is considered a good strength to have leaguewide. It wouldn't be the worst time to cash in that value, and if he keeps having good years in other uniforms, so much the better for him.

[Dojji]

Epstein has recently admitted that he made a mistake in signing Jackson when his team was still years away from contending. And Jackson didn't live up to his "innings eater" reputation as he averaged less than 6 innings per start.

 

Jackson pitched 175 innings in 2013. Even if he didn't go deep in any one game, which is highly debatable, taking all of your starts has a value all its own.

[redsoxrules]

Jackson pitched 175 innings in 2013. Even if he didn't go deep in any one game, which is highly debatable, taking all of your starts has a value all its own.

 

Theres no value if your sucking.

[Behindenemylines]

It would not surprise me if teams have contacted Boston about Nava.

 

Nava's versatility and low cost makes him very important to the Sox. Can play LF, RF and 1B and switch hits so I don't see the Sox moving him.

[Behindenemylines]

Me neither. you have to think that the Sox are investigating keeping ellsbury, and the best way to keep Ellsbury without abandoning the value they have in JBJ, is to use JBJ in left at Nava's expense.

 

there is simply nothing Nava does on this roster that another player can't theoretically do better, and that's the sad truth. He's had a good enough year that he ought to have established some value, especially since the one thing he does really well (OBP) is considered a good strength to have leaguewide. It wouldn't be the worst time to cash in that value, and if he keeps having good years in other uniforms, so much the better for him.

 

His low cost and versatility will keep him in Boston. If JBJ works out and Nap comes back then Nava again platoons in LF with Gomes . If Nap leaves Nava could play 1B and the Sox could get a corner OF bat. Beltron rumors have been out the pass few days. Could be the FO letting Nap know that they are looking elsewhere. Because if Beltron signs then Nap is done in Boston.

[marklmw]

His low cost and versatility will keep him in Boston. If JBJ works out and Nap comes back then Nava again platoons in LF with Gomes . If Nap leaves Nava could play 1B and the Sox could get a corner OF bat. Beltron rumors have been out the pass few days. Could be the FO letting Nap know that they are looking elsewhere. Because if Beltron signs then Nap is done in Boston.

Are you saying that Beltron will play the OF and Nava 1B? Or Nava OF and Beltran 1B?

My gut says the Sox will not land Beltran ... too old and too expensive. Great hitter though.

[Bellhorn04]

there is simply nothing Nava does on this roster that another player can't theoretically do better, and that's the sad truth. He's had a good enough year that he ought to have established some value, especially since the one thing he does really well (OBP) is considered a good strength to have leaguewide. It wouldn't be the worst time to cash in that value, and if he keeps having good years in other uniforms, so much the better for him.

 

Jeez Dojji, you're killing me with this dump Nava stuff. You were his biggest booster and he had a great season and you want to dump him. WTF?

 

His OPS of .831 was 3rd highest for Sox regulars after Ortiz and Napoli.

[seabeachfred]

Re: Pedroia. Who the f*** cares what people wanted? We're talking about the FO here. They gave him the chance, he stuck.

 

Re: Ellsbury: You are yet again incorrect. He was brought up in late 2007, yes, because he was not ready, not because he was blocked. He was in a "timeshare" in 2008 because, quite frankly, he wasn't very good.

 

To your point about the 2007 team, that doesn't even make any sense. If a young guy's on the roster being groomed for a full-time spot, saying he was "blocked" is an affront to logic.

 

The 2007 team had contributions from Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Pedroia, Manny Delcarmen, Papelbon, and Kason Gabbard. That's nine homegrown players right there, and that is the topic of discussion here.

 

The reason your assessment is incorrect is because you view bringing a kid up to get a taste of the Majors as "being benched", when in reality, it's common practice.

 

How much you know about the 2007 season doesn't matter in this context. What matters is that when a talented kid comes along, the Sox will find a way to give him a chance to play, even if that means sitting/trading a veteran, in complete contrast to what you and SoxSport are saying.

 

Your memory is a little mushy. That first month Alex Cora was getting a lot of play at second base, and Ellsbury WAS ready. He was hitting 352 down on the farm but both Epstein and Francona wanted to give Crisp more time to come around, which he didn't. And only when Ramirez got hurt with his oblique did they then bring Jacoby up. Timeshare in 2008? What kind of ******** are you dispensing User. He was coming off a terrific September and World Series and the problem was Epstein wouldn't trade Crisp because he thought he could get more for him than what was offered. You had better get off your ass and start researching 2008 a little more carefully before coming out with this timeshare crap. As it was, Crisp didn't do much in 2008 either. It was only when Jacoby faltered in the 2008 ALDS after a great first game that Crisp got back in the lineup---and by then Epstein was determined to get whatever he could from Coco, who went to Kansas City, sucked and lost his job to Mitch Maier.

 

As for that plethora of home grown players you keep harping on, it was your own words that said they came up in 2007 when only Buchholz and Ellsbury. The rest came up earlier, some as early as 2005. Get your facts straight and stop acting like a God damn know it all.

[User Name]

Your memory is a little mushy. That first month Alex Cora was getting a lot of play at second base, and Ellsbury WAS ready. He was hitting 352 down on the farm but both Epstein and Francona wanted to give Crisp more time to come around, which he didn't. And only when Ramirez got hurt with his oblique did they then bring Jacoby up. Timeshare in 2008? What kind of ******** are you dispensing User. He was coming off a terrific September and World Series and the problem was Epstein wouldn't trade Crisp because he thought he could get more for him than what was offered. You had better get off your ass and start researching 2008 a little more carefully before coming out with this timeshare crap. As it was, Crisp didn't do much in 2008 either. It was only when Jacoby faltered in the 2008 ALDS after a great first game that Crisp got back in the lineup---and by then Epstein was determined to get whatever he could from Coco, who went to Kansas City, sucked and lost his job to Mitch Maier.

 

As for that plethora of home grown players you keep harping on, it was your own words that said they came up in 2007 when only Buchholz and Ellsbury. The rest came up earlier, some as early as 2005. Get your facts straight and stop acting like a God damn know it all.

 

Pedroia was hitting under the Mendoza line. They gave Cora playing time while he worked out of his slump. It's a common practice.

 

You are not a talent evaluator. If the FO thought Ellsbury was ready, they would have called him up beforehand. His ETA per scouts was always 2008, they RUSHED him up because of need. Do you know better than scouts who do this for a living?

 

The plethora of homegrown talent was referring to roster construction in general. A farmhand is a farmhand. You took away what you wanted from the point and ran away with it.

 

Let's skip 2007, and make it simple: Delaying a prospect's arrival as a full-time player for a couple months, or giving him more seasoning while he gets ready for the show does not constitute "being blocked". That is a completely incorrect assessment. You and SS are dead wrong about the whole "FO blocks prospects" thing, and you're clearly grasping at straws to prove otherwise.

 

It's been proven time and time again the FO is more than willing to trade away or bench a veteran for a hot prospect pushing their hand. I don't understand how you can say otherwise based on either not deeming a prospect ready or easing him into a job. Please stop.

[jad]

Nothing that Nava does that someone else can't "theoretically" do better? Well yes. As long as that "theoretical" .306 hitter actually hits .307. But you could say that of anybody. JB could also 'theoretically' replace Ellsbury; all he needs to do is hit over .300 and steal over 50 bases. Stated that way, it sounds so simple.

[jung]

To be honest the only thing I can think of that would have Nava dealt away that is consistent with what we have seen lately from BC would be moving on a player at the peak of his value. I don't think Nava will ever be more highly valued than he is right now. Not saying they should move him but in that sense, moving him would be consistent with what we have seen recently from BC ala' Iggy.

[User Name]

That's a pretty damn good way to put it.

[seabeachfred]

Pedroia was hitting under the Mendoza line. They gave Cora playing time while he worked out of his slump. It's a common practice.

 

You are not a talent evaluator. If the FO thought Ellsbury was ready, they would have called him up beforehand. His ETA per scouts was always 2008, they RUSHED him up because of need. Do you know better than scouts who do this for a living?

 

The plethora of homegrown talent was referring to roster construction in general. A farmhand is a farmhand. You took away what you wanted from the point and ran away with it.

 

Let's skip 2007, and make it simple: Delaying a prospect's arrival as a full-time player for a couple months, or giving him more seasoning while he gets ready for the show does not constitute "being blocked". That is a completely incorrect assessment. You and SS are dead wrong about the whole "FO blocks prospects" thing, and you're clearly grasping at straws to prove otherwise.

 

It's been proven time and time again the FO is more than willing to trade away or bench a veteran for a hot prospect pushing their hand. I don't understand how you can say otherwise based on either not deeming a prospect ready or easing him into a job. Please stop.

 

Well until we won our first WS in eons we didn't exactly wow baseball with our deep farm system but I will give full credit to Epstein for building it up and giving us some good talent in the years going forward until for some reason things started to dry up around 2009. That 2004 team had only one home grown player in the lineup (Nixon) and the 2007 team had Pedroia and Youk but no one else and that included most of the pitchers. We can twist and turn these facts around to make either one of us look good, but that's no longer an interest to me. Suffice to say that looking at it from circa 2013 I want to see people like Bradley and Bogaerts get their chances next year and Cecchini, Brentz, Swihart, Renaudo, Owens and others get their when they're ready. s*** on those big free agent signings. I think we are going to make some changes this off season and we should but we must try to keep as many of the key players from this season in our livery. This year's team was not only good but they were a real team and that is what worries me a little....we may be hasty in kissing a lot of them off. Napoli, for instance, and maybe even Satalamacchia, though you may disagree with the latter. Let's now move on.

[redsoxfan3]

With trying to stay at that 32M range, I don't think I see Beltran, Ellsbury, Drew, or McCann on the team next year. I think we resign Salty for around 3/27M. I think resign Napoli for 3/42M. That adds 23M for next year and leaves us with around 9M to look at OF options, relief pitching options, and utility IF options.

 

Beltran is asking for too many years. Ellsbury is going to be asking for too much. McCann's AAV will be too high for additional flexibility with FA signings. I think Drew finds a better contract than we are willing to offer.

 

Here are my projections:

Salty- 3/27M

Napoli- 3/42M

Clint Barmes- 1/5M (utility IF)

Chris Young- 1/5M (to reestablish his value on a short-term deal; platoon in CF with Bradley)

Brian Wilson- 1/9M (set-up reliever)

Total Additions to 2014 payroll- 42M

 

Trade Ryan Dempster and Mike Carp for prospects, which will take somewhere around 14M or a little more off of the books for 2014. Which reduces the the additional payroll to 28M, if need be, we can eat 4M of Dempster's contract or a little less. I don't know what we could get in return.

 

This is just a hypothetical scenario, but something that I think might be interesting to think about if BC wants to stay under the luxury tax. If we sign McCann and Napoli, we probably go over the luxury tax threshold. It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

Edited November 10, 2013 by redsoxfan3

[dupree]

I could see that happening redsoxfan... well done

[sk7326]

Theres no value if your sucking.

 

Basically - this is the value we applied to Tim Wakefield's presence. That he took his starts and kept a staff organized. He struggled at times, but that was not the point. And the industry has priced that single value quite high now. Jackson had a bad season, but a #4 starter who doesn't miss turns has innate value. Even Dempster proved that. Every start you don't need to wheel out Kyle Weiland or 2011 Tim Wakefield is a win for your rotation.

[Thunder]

With trying to stay at that 32M range, I don't think I see Beltran, Ellsbury, Drew, or McCann on the team next year. I think we resign Salty for around 3/27M. I think resign Napoli for 3/42M. That adds 23M for next year and leaves us with around 9M to look at OF options, relief pitching options, and utility IF options.

 

Beltran is asking for too many years. Ellsbury is going to be asking for too much. McCann's AAV will be too high for additional flexibility with FA signings. I think Drew finds a better contract than we are willing to offer.

 

Here are my projections:

Salty- 3/27M

Napoli- 3/42M

Clint Barmes- 1/5M (utility IF)

Chris Young- 1/5M (to reestablish his value on a short-term deal; platoon in CF with Bradley)

Brian Wilson- 1/9M (set-up reliever)

Total Additions to 2014 payroll- 42M

 

Trade Ryan Dempster and Mike Carp for prospects, which will take somewhere around 14M or a little more off of the books for 2014. Which reduces the the additional payroll to 28M, if need be, we can eat 4M of Dempster's contract or a little less. I don't know what we could get in return.

 

This is just a hypothetical scenario, but something that I think might be interesting to think about if BC wants to stay under the luxury tax. If we sign McCann and Napoli, we probably go over the luxury tax threshold. It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

 

For the most part, I agree with you. Barmes is actually a perfect fit in the middle IF. I would love to see him sign, even if it is just for a year. As for Beltran and McCann, I think we are setting our sights too big. There's really no reasonable shot at those two signing. I wouldn't mind Young, but I have a bet with Pal that Ells will stay, so I'm sticking to that. Brian Wilson is high risk guy. He might be lights out, or he might be the next Eric Gagne. Taz is a perfectly good set up man, plus we will have Hanrahan back (correct me if wrong). Salty is the only FA I'm really unsure about. I can see a good team with him, and a good team without him.