Marahiro Tanaka And Sox Starting Rotation.

[jung]

Maybe Demps has trouble with the mid-summer heat. If that is the case, then that would suggest at least the possibility of repeating a 2013. I really don't need to see him do more than repeat his totals from 2013 some way or another. If he could do that, he is an OK 5. An average SO/9 for him at a little over 7 is fine. Below 6 is hideous for him especially since his swing and miss stuff is all low in the zone or low out of the zone. If he is not hitting that spot it is bomb city. A SO/9 below 6 would suggest he is up in the zone too much and the rest of his numbers will suffer as well. Edited November 4, 2013 by jung

[marklmw]

I think that you can argue Workman, no doubt. And if they dealt Dempster to give Workman a job - more power to them. That said, Dempster essentially filled a Tim Wakefield role last season - a guy who doesn't suck that badly and always takes the ball. This is not a great Hallmark card, and you don't want him near any truly nervous spots - but he is absolutely valuable for negotiating the 6-month slog. Dempster's strikeout rate did not have that crazy April level, but it stayed pretty good all season. I am not stumping for Dempster to stay - but he is a depth guy and a sunk cost ... and for a team who needs an innings eater, he can provide it at a salary which is probably inflated but not that much so.

 

If you can replace Dempster with Workman, dump the higher salary and perhaps pick up a prospect ... sounds attractive to me.

[marklmw]

Now that the posting fee for Tanaka is capped at a reasonable 20M do you think that Boston is still interested? It is not inconceivable that the AVV for Tanaka will be around 15M per. This 15M is in the same neighborhood as Peavy (move for prospects) & Dempster (salary dump). If the Sox can sign Tanaka to a 6 year deal we will have him during his prime years.

 

1. Lester

2. Buchholz

3. Tanaka

4. Lackey

5. Doubront

6. Workman

7. Webster

8. Owens

[Palodios]

The Red Sox will bid 20 mill for Tanaka. With a talent like that, you need to stick your nose into negotiations. That being said, he won't be available for any less than 7/110 and that is way too much.

[User Name]

That's if he's even posted.

[marklmw]

The Red Sox will bid 20 mill for Tanaka. With a talent like that, you need to stick your nose into negotiations. That being said, he won't be available for any less than 7/110 and that is way too much.

 

15.7m per for 7 years would be a good deal ... but then again ... you are saying this is the minimum and you could be right. The Yankees will pay 20M per ... they are that desperate.

[Palodios]

15.7m per for 7 years would be a good deal ... but then again ... you are saying this is the minimum and you could be right. The Yankees will pay 20M per ... they are that desperate.

 

Adding a max bid of 20M will actually increase the total cost of Tanaka, because all the rich teams will bid to the max, and he'll essentially be treated like a MLB free agent, meaning crazy negotiations. Part of me wonders that it might hurt negotiations for Tanaka to only have a known set number of teams bidding for him... but part of me thinks it will be much easier to create mystery bidders when it is clear which teams are actually interested.

[marklmw]

Adding a max bid of 20M will actually increase the total cost of Tanaka, because all the rich teams will bid to the max, and he'll essentially be treated like a MLB free agent, meaning crazy negotiations. Part of me wonders that it might hurt negotiations for Tanaka to only have a known set number of teams bidding for him... but part of me thinks it will be much easier to create mystery bidders when it is clear which teams are actually interested.

There can be 15+ teams posting just to be part of it ... don't you think?

Edited December 9, 2013 by marklmw

[sk7326]

The Red Sox will bid 20 mill for Tanaka. With a talent like that, you need to stick your nose into negotiations. That being said, he won't be available for any less than 7/110 and that is way too much.

 

Well 7/110 for a legit #2 starter is probably a fair-ish price ... not saying I'd do it, but that's possibly less than what Lester will probably command on the market with 4 years age difference.

 

The revised posting system is good for a lot of parties, but will reduce the NPB incentive to post guys in their prime. Frankly a simple cut of contract value might have been a lot simpler.

[marklmw]

Well 7/110 for a legit #2 starter is probably a fair-ish price ... not saying I'd do it, but that's possibly less than what Lester will probably command on the market with 4 years age difference.

 

The revised posting system is good for a lot of parties, but will reduce the NPB incentive to post guys in their prime. Frankly a simple cut of contract value might have been a lot simpler.

 

There is no doubt that new posting system is more fair to the player who has yet to put in his 9 years. I believe that all the teams from NPB endorsed this change and I also believe that their is a sense of pride when one of their players performs well in MLB. This being said it must be a difficult decision for ownership to let a superstar in his prime years leave before his contract is up.

[Palodios]

Well 7/110 for a legit #2 starter is probably a fair-ish price ... not saying I'd do it, but that's possibly less than what Lester will probably command on the market with 4 years age difference.

 

The revised posting system is good for a lot of parties, but will reduce the NPB incentive to post guys in their prime. Frankly a simple cut of contract value might have been a lot simpler.

7/110 + 20 remember and that's the minimum for a guy who has never thrown a pitch in the majors.

[marklmw]

7/110 + 20 remember and that's the minimum for a guy who has never thrown a pitch in the majors.

The Yankees are not masking their interest in this guy.

[sk7326]

7/110 + 20 remember and that's the minimum for a guy who has never thrown a pitch in the majors.

 

Well you have to lean on your evaluators as to whether the commitment is worthwhile. At first sniff, I'd say probably not. But the financial commitment (even at 130) for a 25 year old with #2/#3 expectations immediately is not unreasonable at all.

 

My skepticism with him is the workload to date - he has major questions, as do all of the other starters on the market. But his questions combined with upside make a bit more palatable a combination.

[marklmw]

Well you have to lean on your evaluators as to whether the commitment is worthwhile. At first sniff, I'd say probably not. But the financial commitment (even at 130) for a 25 year old with #2/#3 expectations immediately is not unreasonable at all.

 

My skepticism with him is the workload to date - he has major questions, as do all of the other starters on the market. But his questions combined with upside make a bit more palatable a combination.

 

What makes this interesting is how it will affect the FA pitchers who have yet to sign. Seems like they will have to wait on Tanaka.

[reYoukilis]

Matt Albers is available. He did a good job here and kept on doing a good job after he left.

[vjcsmoke]

With a 20m posting fee, that doesn't count against the luxury tax, that is a no-brainer bid for the Red Sox. The only question is, with the Yankees swinging their fat wallet, do we even stand a chance of winning? I think you do due diligence. Bid, negotiate, and see what it takes. Tanaka sounds like he's going to be at least a #2 with upside to be a #1 if his cutter stays filthy at the MLB level with the different ball. The crazy thing about Tanaka? He went undefeated even though he had to throw a 'juiced ball' to NPB batters this past season.

 

I know a lot of people are saying what about the money... Well, how about the fact you don't need to pay any prospects? David Price is going to cost SOMEBODY the farm with Premium Prospects, AND he will want a big fat contract on top of that!

[marklmw]

With a 20m posting fee, that doesn't count against the luxury tax, that is a no-brainer bid for the Red Sox. The only question is, with the Yankees swinging their fat wallet, do we even stand a chance of winning? I think you do due diligence. Bid, negotiate, and see what it takes. Tanaka sounds like he's going to be at least a #2 with upside to be a #1 if his cutter stays filthy at the MLB level with the different ball. The crazy thing about Tanaka? He went undefeated even though he had to throw a 'juiced ball' to NPB batters this past season.

 

I know a lot of people are saying what about the money... Well, how about the fact you don't need to pay any prospects? David Price is going to cost SOMEBODY the farm with Premium Prospects, AND he will want a big fat contract on top of that!

Interesting point you make about the 'juiced ball' I was not aware of that. The nice thing about signing Tanaka is that he is young and greatly enhances our ceiling for post season play when the rotation is whittled down. If we sign Tanaka then it will allow us to put Lackey, Peavy and of course Dempster in play.

[Hitch]

Am I right in thinking we are quite close to the wage ceiling?

[marklmw]

Am I right in thinking we are quite close to the wage ceiling?

 

We call it the Luxury Tax limit ... you can exceed this limit but when you do you are penalized. We are close but we still have the opportunity to chop off some of our payroll via trades. We have some pitchers who are at the minimum pay scale who can replace a pitcher like Dempster who will earn 13M + in 2014.

[SoxSport]

I doubt the Sox are in the market for a starting pitcher. They have 6 or 7 right now, if you include Workman, plus 2 or 3 prospects close in the minors. They are probably looking to finding a taker for Dempster--to free up salary. Maybe even Peavey in the right deal.

[marklmw]

I doubt the Sox are in the market for a starting pitcher. They have 6 or 7 right now, if you include Workman, plus 2 or 3 prospects close in the minors. They are probably looking to finding a taker for Dempster--to free up salary. Maybe even Peavey in the right deal.

 

Have to look past 2014. We can deal Dempster and Peavy should we sign Tanaka.

[Hitch]

We call it the Luxury Tax limit ... you can exceed this limit but when you do you are penalized. We are close but we still have the opportunity to chop off some of our payroll via trades. We have some pitchers who are at the minimum pay scale who can replace a pitcher like Dempster who will earn 13M + in 2014.

 

Yeah sorry I went all British there.

 

Then my next question - how could the Sox possibly get near Tanaka?

 

I assume that the FO already need to move a starter, to bring back Drew/or another left sided player?

 

So how do the Sox get Tanaka as well?

 

And with the rest of the league knowing that the Sox need to trade off a starting pitcher, doesn't that put them at an automatic disadvantage? Never mind needing to trade two, to get in the hunt for Tanaka.

 

I just don't see how the Red Sox can even contemplate Tanaka for a moment, when they still need another left sided player on the roster.

 

I may be way off here, but I just can't see how Tanaka is a viable option at all?

 

Going by this Farrell interview they definitely want to trade one of the starters - http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/bos/title-in-the-past-boston-manager-john-farrell-focused-on-the-future?ymd=20131209&content_id=64494092

[Bellhorn04]

If Tanaka does get posted I won't be surprised if the Yankees offer him $20 million a year. The $20 million posting fee is a bargain for them - it'll be a lot less than the luxury tax they would pay if they signed a free agent pitcher for $20 million a year.

[Emmz]

Is he THAT good? Honestly, he's like 5'9, and how many successful pitchers are under 6 feet tall?

[User Name]

He isn't. He's clearly not nearly as good as Darvish. I don't see what all the fuss is about, and it's not about his size. He's bigger than Pedro. It's about stuff (of lack thereof)

[Emmz]

He isn't. He's clearly not nearly as good as Darvish. I don't see what all the fuss is about, and it's not about his size. He's bigger than Pedro. It's about stuff (of lack thereof)

 

It is about size though, most pitchers are 6'2 or higher, and it's because you're at an advantage.

 

Not that it isn't about his stuff, I just immediately pass on most short pitchers unless they have outstanding pitches and can throw them 100 times a game and be consistent. Haven't seen much of him, certainly not enough to assess his "stuff", but the first thing that crossed my mind was that he's short.

[User Name]

It is about size though, most pitchers are 6'2 or higher, and it's because you're at an advantage.

 

Not that it isn't about his stuff, I just immediately pass on most short pitchers unless they have outstanding pitches and can throw them 100 times a game and be consistent. Haven't seen much of him, certainly not enough to assess his "stuff", but the first thing that crossed my mind was that he's short.

 

If you have elite stuff, size isn't all that important, as Pedro Martinez, Tim Lincecum and Tim Hudson have shown. The problem is that Tanaka doesn't have elite stuff, per all accounts. What's really impacted by size in pitchers is durability, and that's just another point against Tanaka.

[Emmz]

It is about size though, most pitchers are 6'2 or higher, and it's because you're at an advantage.

 

Not that it isn't about his stuff, I just immediately pass on most short pitchers unless they have outstanding pitches and can throw them 100 times a game and be consistent. Haven't seen much of him, certainly not enough to assess his "stuff", but the first thing that crossed my mind was that he's short.

 

I guess he's 6'2, just googled it.

[User Name]

I thought he was 6'0.

[User Name]

You're right, he's 1.88 meters.