Marahiro Tanaka And Sox Starting Rotation.

[User Name]

Decidedly inferior? Maybe he doesn't throw as hard, but he isn't decidedly inferior. Tanaka did go undefeated with a miniscule ERA through a full season. Their numbers are very similar. Tanaka has a deeper arsenal whereas Darvish has the harder FB and strikeout capability. I think both end up as front line starters

 

He doesn't throw as hard, and scouts think his stuff is simply a tier below, especially his fastball. So yes, that would constitute decidedly inferior, and yes, i will take scout's opinions over yours.

 

By the way, here's an excerpt from Gabe Kapler (yes, that Gabe Kapler) from foxsports regarding Tanaka immediately counteracting part of your point:

 

Many will point to Tanaka’s spotless 24-0 record last season in Japan. We understand, however, that the win statistic is an undependable indicator of future success as it’s largely dependent on factors outside a pitcher’s control and shouldn’t be factored into the fantasy of contract prediction.

 

Winning a game against the Hanshin Tigers has nothing to do with striking out Robinson Cano with the game hanging in the balance in late September. Still, 24-0 is a shiny Rolex, it’s simply not indicative of wealth.

 

And here, he quickly counteracts the second:

 

If you’re looking for a MLB example of a guy who was dominant as a youngster and regressed as an additional cautionary tale, Atlanta Brave Steve Avery fits the bill. Avery averaged nearly 3 fWAR through his age 23 season, his fWAR regressed along with his peripherals from age 24 on. He may have been overused as a young kid piling up 667 innings in his age 21-23 seasons.

 

Tanaka, who has 1,313 innings logged in Japan to date, has been identified as having “less-than-perfect” mechanics; Avery surely falls into the same bucket. Attempting to predict shoulder and elbow issues due to extensive innings early in a pitchers career is an inexact science.

 

Basically, Tanaka is far from a sure thing.

 

Scouts that I’ve consulted with don’t all love Tanaka the same way they did Darvish. Tanaka doesn't profile physically as a top of the rotation starter like Darvish and lacks the strikeout numbers unique to Yu.

 

Tanaka's fastball on video looks somewhat flat, which would need to be overcome by extraordinary command to play at the MLB level.

 

Basically no, Tanaka is not in the same level as Darvish. That's not necessarily a knock on Tanaka, since Darvish is a freak, but it's ridiculous that he'll probably be commanding more money overall.

 

Btw, here's the linky to the Kapler article: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/kapler-expect-tanaka-to-land-big-bucks-in-unprecedented-bidding-war-122613

[User Name]

Also, Gabe Kapler is a serious stathead. That blows my mind.

[Spitball]

Decidedly inferior? Maybe he doesn't throw as hard, but he isn't decidedly inferior. Tanaka did go undefeated with a miniscule ERA through a full season. Their numbers are very similar. Tanaka has a deeper arsenal whereas Darvish has the harder FB and strikeout capability. I think both end up as front line starters

 

Matsuzaka pitched a comparable amount of innings in his teens to Tanaka, but how does Tanaka compare more favorably to Darvish? Please elaborate on your claim...

Edited December 27, 2013 by Spitball

[vjcsmoke]

I have heard similar stories. I know his last two outings saw him throw 160 pitches in game six of the Japanese Series, and then come back the very next day to close out game seven with 15 more pitches. Can you imagine an American team doing either?

 

He also threw 359 innings and had 9 complete games before he turned 20. As a 24 year-old, he has already thrown 1315 innings with 53 complete games.

 

I hope someone else gambles $100 million (with signing fee) on this guy's uncertain future.

 

I think you guys are too hung up on the innings pitched number. Hall of Fame AMERICAN Major Leaguers back in the day used to throw 400-500 innings in a season easily.

 

Remember a guy named Cy Young? He pitched around 400 innings per season from age 24-29. Then pitched over 300 innings per season from age 30 to 42. Didn't retire until age 44. Over 7,300 IP over his career!

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngcy01.shtml

 

Getting a little silly and exaggerated with the 'walking timebomb' descriptions. The dude just turned 26.

Japanese pitchers don't seem to have career longevity issues. Just check out Hiroki Kuroda, pitching past his year 38 season already.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kurodhi01.shtml

 

And our own Koji Uehara at the top of his game at age 39.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ueharko01.shtml

 

So chill with the exaggerations.

 

From what I've heard, I expect Tanaka to be not the same pitcher as Darvish obviously. But if he's an upgraded, younger version of Kuroda who gives you 200+ ip a year with 3.xx era and 1.1ish whip would he be worth the money? Absolutely.

[User Name]

But who says he'll be that? Therein lies the problem.

[reYoukilis]

If the Sox were to pay alot of money to one player, Id like him to be a pitcher. Having said that, alot of Japanese pitchers, even Darvish, have these bad habits of being too fancy, or always trying to pitch the perfect pitch and end up getting in trouble. Matsuzaka was certainly like that.

[User Name]

Darvish is the complete opposite. He's a power pitcher through and through. You're wrong comparing him to Matsuzaka etc.

[Dojji]

Also, Gabe Kapler is a serious stathead. That blows my mind.

 

Well, it was his inability to compile stats despite his obvious talent, that killed his big league career in the end.

[Spitball]

I think you guys are too hung up on the innings pitched number. Hall of Fame AMERICAN Major Leaguers back in the day used to throw 400-500 innings in a season easily.

 

Remember a guy named Cy Young? He pitched around 400 innings per season from age 24-29. Then pitched over 300 innings per season from age 30 to 42. Didn't retire until age 44. Over 7,300 IP over his career!

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngcy01.shtml

 

I don't see this as a valid argument. You are talking about a long ago era that is much different from today's game.

 

Getting a little silly and exaggerated with the 'walking timebomb' descriptions. The dude just turned 26.

Japanese pitchers don't seem to have career longevity issues. Just check out Hiroki Kuroda, pitching past his year 38 season already.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kurodhi01.shtml

 

And our own Koji Uehara at the top of his game at age 39.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ueharko01.shtml

 

So chill with the exaggerations.

 

From what I've heard, I expect Tanaka to be not the same pitcher as Darvish obviously. But if he's an upgraded, younger version of Kuroda who gives you 200+ ip a year with 3.xx era and 1.1ish whip would he be worth the money? Absolutely.

 

I believe he just turned 25.

 

I don't think Hiroki Kuroda is a valid comparison. By the time he was Tanaka's age, he had pitched a mere 267 innings. Tanaka had 92 more than that in his teenage years. I don't know if Kuroda had high pitch counts in his teens and early twenties, but I know Tanaka has.

 

I am happy the Red Sox are not being seriously linked to the guy.

[rjortiz]

I think you guys are too hung up on the innings pitched number. Hall of Fame AMERICAN Major Leaguers back in the day used to throw 400-500 innings in a season easily.

 

Remember a guy named Cy Young? He pitched around 400 innings per season from age 24-29. Then pitched over 300 innings per season from age 30 to 42. Didn't retire until age 44. Over 7,300 IP over his career!

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngcy01.shtml

 

Getting a little silly and exaggerated with the 'walking timebomb' descriptions. The dude just turned 26.

Japanese pitchers don't seem to have career longevity issues. Just check out Hiroki Kuroda, pitching past his year 38 season already.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kurodhi01.shtml

 

And our own Koji Uehara at the top of his game at age 39.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ueharko01.shtml

 

So chill with the exaggerations.

 

From what I've heard, I expect Tanaka to be not the same pitcher as Darvish obviously. But if he's an upgraded, younger version of Kuroda who gives you 200+ ip a year with 3.xx era and 1.1ish whip would he be worth the money? Absolutely.

 

Three pitchers doesn't refute the fact that more mileage on an arm makes it more susceptible to damage. Keith Olbermann had a good video on this topic.

 

http://sportsnetny.tumblr.com/post/60404112274/keith-olbermann-on-matt-harvey-tom-seaver-and

[wyo-sox]

Rather than throw big money at an over the ocean prospect..... wouldn't the Sox be wiser to work out an extension with Lester?

[wyo-sox]

I think you guys are too hung up on the innings pitched number. Hall of Fame AMERICAN Major Leaguers back in the day used to throw 400-500 innings in a season easily.

 

Remember a guy named Cy Young? He pitched around 400 innings per season from age 24-29. Then pitched over 300 innings per season from age 30 to 42. Didn't retire until age 44. Over 7,300 IP over his career!

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngcy01.shtml

 

Getting a little silly and exaggerated with the 'walking timebomb' descriptions. The dude just turned 26.

Japanese pitchers don't seem to have career longevity issues. Just check out Hiroki Kuroda, pitching past his year 38 season already.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kurodhi01.shtml

 

And our own Koji Uehara at the top of his game at age 39.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ueharko01.shtml

 

So chill with the exaggerations.

 

From what I've heard, I expect Tanaka to be not the same pitcher as Darvish obviously. But if he's an upgraded, younger version of Kuroda who gives you 200+ ip a year with 3.xx era and 1.1ish whip would he be worth the money? Absolutely.

 

 

I wonder if today's players don't pitch career innings like Cy Young because they throw so many more pitches as kids- with year long little league, private coaches, off season camps etc.....?

[User Name]

I wonder if today's players don't pitch career innings like Cy Young because they throw so many more pitches as kids- with year long little league, private coaches, off season camps etc.....?

 

And they start throwing breaking pitches in their teens, without fully developed elbow/shoulder muscles. This is a theory I've always subscribed to.

[seabeachfred]

Rather than throw big money at an over the ocean prospect..... wouldn't the Sox be wiser to work out an extension with Lester?

 

That's what I would suggest too wyo. I personally believe the Sox are playing with fire if they drag the Lester question deep into next season and if they wait until the 2014 season is over they will be up against what some other pitchers like Scherzer and Kershaw are getting. They might pay a hell of a lot more money for that privilege and just might come up empty and lose Jon. Instead of worrying about Drew, who as most of you know I don't want back, money towards him (and a lot more) should be going towards re-upping Lester to a long term contract. Besides, many talk about WMB being tradable if we sign Drew, but it also will block Cecchini like an anvil and stop his chance of breaking into the lineup and giving us that solid young left hand hitter we're going to need so badly down the road.

[User Name]

No it won't. If Cecchini keeps developing, they will find a spot for him on the lineup. He projects as a below-average 3B so they'll likely move him off the position anyway. Where do you come up with this stuff?

[reYoukilis]

I agree about Lester and am sure the front office feels the same way. He's proven himself time and again and he's only 29. Its a no brainer. Having said that I still think we need one more above and beyond our prospects because chances are one of our starters won't be what he was.

 

Im not saying we should get Tanaka nor am I saying we shouldn't, just that I feel we need another talented but young-ish arm

[redsoxrules]

I'd be shocked if they don't extend Lester. Especially when he said he'd take a home town discount.

[seabeachfred]

I'd be shocked if they don't extend Lester. Especially when he said he'd take a home town discount.

 

The facts are there. LESTER WANTS TO STAY IN BOSTON AND HAS SAID ON A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS THAT HE WOULD TAKE A HOME TOWN DISCOUNT. I think that should speak volumes to the front office to try and get something done as soon as possible. The price will only go up if he gets off to a good start and rumors start flying around how much Scherzer and Kershaw might be getting. As we know, Lester developed or reverted back to an ace this past season in the second and in the Playoffs.

[rjortiz]

I'd wait on Lester. He had a great postseason, which makes it easy to forget his horrible stretch during the 2013 season, and his awful 2012.

[BornToRun]

I get wanting to wait and see what Lester we have in 2014 but I also think that he's actually a pretty safe bet moving forward.

 

He's a lock to give you around 30 starts a year and 200+ innings and he's never had any serious ailments and most reports are that he has really good mechanics so I don't see anything that is suggesting serious issues in the future.

 

On top of that, aside from 2012, he's been reliable for an ERA in the 3's with the one outlier, 2012, coming in season where the whole team was in turmoil and we had a coaching staff that couldn't be bothered to give a s*** about the players.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lester is going to be an interesting case. He had 2 yrs of sheer dominance with 225K's and 200+IP. His K rate started dropping in 2011 and reached its current state in 2012. The funny thing is, his xFIP in 2012 was lower than it was in 2013, even though his ERA dropped a full run. The biggest assistance Lester received in 2013 was his HR rate dropped to his 2010 and earlier level and his BABIP came down to .300 after hitting a career high of .312. But his playoff performance, especially in 2013, will make him a legend and likely get him paid a la Sabathia. Lester has said many times that he wants to stay in Boston. But I also think there may be a disconnect between what Boston considers his worth and what his FA value may be. During 09-10, he was an ace. Since then, he's been a good pitcher with a flair for the playoff dramatic. On the open market, he likely gets a $20+ mil per year deal. But his last 2 yrs point towards a guy who might only be worth Anibal Sanchez money (5yrs $85 mil). And if Lester has a great contract year, he could get even more than that. He turns 30 next week, so he will hit the market at a good time. If I were the sox, I might want to wait this one out.

[seabeachfred]

Lester is going to be an interesting case. He had 2 yrs of sheer dominance with 225K's and 200+IP. His K rate started dropping in 2011 and reached its current state in 2012. The funny thing is, his xFIP in 2012 was lower than it was in 2013, even though his ERA dropped a full run. The biggest assistance Lester received in 2013 was his HR rate dropped to his 2010 and earlier level and his BABIP came down to .300 after hitting a career high of .312. But his playoff performance, especially in 2013, will make him a legend and likely get him paid a la Sabathia. Lester has said many times that he wants to stay in Boston. But I also think there may be a disconnect between what Boston considers his worth and what his FA value may be. During 09-10, he was an ace. Since then, he's been a good pitcher with a flair for the playoff dramatic. On the open market, he likely gets a $20+ mil per year deal. But his last 2 yrs point towards a guy who might only be worth Anibal Sanchez money (5yrs $85 mil). And if Lester has a great contract year, he could get even more than that. He turns 30 next week, so he will hit the market at a good time. If I were the sox, I might want to wait this one out.

 

Of course you would Jacko---then when the price goes up your shithole team claims they're not interested and then swoop in and steal another player from us, a pitcher who knows how to beat the Yankees. No thanks!!!!! I hope the Red Sox are smart about this because with your horse dung farm system you can only succeed if you raid other teams and try to buy your way to a title. The Red Sox had better be smart about this and not wait until the season is well under way because the price will only go up if Jon is having a solid season....and barring unforeseen circumstances he will be having a very solid season. He is just about all the way back and he wants to stay in Boston. Cherington is no dope; I think he sees what's ahead of him and will act accordingly......I HOPE!!!!!!!

[Spitball]

I think you guys are too hung up on the innings pitched number. Hall of Fame AMERICAN Major Leaguers back in the day used to throw 400-500 innings in a season easily.

 

Remember a guy named Cy Young? He pitched around 400 innings per season from age 24-29. Then pitched over 300 innings per season from age 30 to 42. Didn't retire until age 44. Over 7,300 IP over his career!

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngcy01.shtml

 

Getting a little silly and exaggerated with the 'walking timebomb' descriptions. The dude just turned 26.

Japanese pitchers don't seem to have career longevity issues. Just check out Hiroki Kuroda, pitching past his year 38 season already.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kurodhi01.shtml

 

And our own Koji Uehara at the top of his game at age 39.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ueharko01.shtml

 

So chill with the exaggerations.

 

From what I've heard, I expect Tanaka to be not the same pitcher as Darvish obviously. But if he's an upgraded, younger version of Kuroda who gives you 200+ ip a year with 3.xx era and 1.1ish whip would he be worth the money? Absolutely.

 

Tom Verducci has an interesting article on this topic:

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20131227/masahiro-tanaka-major-league-baseball-value/

[reYoukilis]

I'd wait on Lester. He had a great postseason, which makes it easy to forget his horrible stretch during the 2013 season, and his awful 2012.

For one thing, the postseason performance trumps it because he rose to the occasion when it mattered, something stats cant measure. But more than that, its not just this postseason performance, he was great before the Valentine adventure. Look at the age, look at the clutch, look at his love for Boston. Sign, sign, sign. We'd be mad not to IMO.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's hitting the market at a good time for him. He'll be 31 in the first year of a new deal. How many years would you want to give to a guy with a lot of innings on his arm? I think in a perfect world, the sox would want 3 yrs. in reality, on the open market, he'll get 7 with those final 4 years likely seeing him have to reinvent himself as his fastball starts to slow down. It's an interesting dilemma. I can tell you right now that if he hit the open market, NY would be all over him, but Cherington seems to crave value and flexibility. And signing a 31 yr old pitcher for 6-7 yrs doesn't lend to flexibility. Also, one shoulder injury and his career could be over (see Roy Halladay).

[User Name]

The Sox and Lester will find middle ground on a contract that's less than six years long, and for market value, unless he stinks up the joint in 2014. You can continue this exercise in mental masturbation regarding the possibility of the Sox losing him if you want. The truth is that if they want to keep him, they will, unless he wants to leave, and for all intents and purposes, he does not.

[User Name]

For one thing, the postseason performance trumps it because he rose to the occasion when it mattered, something stats cant measure. But more than that, its not just this postseason performance, he was great before the Valentine adventure. Look at the age, look at the clutch, look at his love for Boston. Sign, sign, sign. We'd be mad not to IMO.

 

Actually the stats measure it perfectly. The numbers are there for all to see.

[Bellhorn04]

For one thing, the postseason performance trumps it because he rose to the occasion when it mattered, something stats cant measure. But more than that, its not just this postseason performance, he was great before the Valentine adventure. Look at the age, look at the clutch, look at his love for Boston. Sign, sign, sign. We'd be mad not to IMO.

 

I think we'll hear about it shortly after the season starts.

[BSN07]

I'd offer Lester 5/85M(Weaver deal). Anything more than that and I'm not feeling so good about it. Love Lester but I'm not into to signing any player long term into his mid 30's these days. If he wants more than 5/85 let him walk.

[User Name]

I would have no problem with the Sox going right around 100 million for Lester as long as they keep the contract to five years or less. If you have to overpay to keep the guy on a shorter contract, then do it.