Marahiro Tanaka And Sox Starting Rotation.

[sk7326]

Basically what I'd note is - just because you get the odd Lars Anderson or Andy Marte does not mean that ALL prospects (or even most) with those crackerjack traits - conquering levels at a young age - does not mean that the process or the evaluation is not sound. The odds are still with you ... I mean my reaction to missing on Anderson is *shrug* it happens.

[Dojji]

Of course it doesn't mean they'll all expoode into a broken heap of flaming gibs, but in an ideal world you give yourself enough redundancy to weather the storm in case yours does. Having a sufficient backup plan for what happened to Middlebrooks would have made us a better team this year. We got really lucky with Iglesias, and we still felt the pain at times.

[marklmw]

They're going to do their due diligence. They're not going to sign him. Because they don't need him.

 

They've got entirely too much talent between their starting 5, Dempster, plus 4 guys in Pawtucket (Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, Workman), and a guy in Portland who could very well be up by midseason 2015, a la Workman, in Owens.

 

I'm sorry that this hurts your feelings, but you're wrong. If they're going to spend 100mm+ on a player, why would they spend it on an area of strength??

 

It makes no sense. They don't need him. At all.

Maybe you are right ... so why are they scouting him? If they fall in love with the guy you just never know. And about the 100M investment ... only half goes against the Cap. Ownership has all kinds of money.

[SoxSport]

This is exactly my point. You go with Bradley in CF, give him 2 months playing every single day to see how he adjusts, and then make your assessment. If he doesn't work out right now, you send him back to AAA and you have Carp/Gomes - Victorino - Nava until he does.

 

They have to decide whether to overpay for Ells (and they will have to overpay, with Boras), or to go with Bradley.

That's why it's important to get Bradley some PT--to get his confidence established. And to see what he can do. He is getting some CF time right now. Near term, Bradley and Vic can be used interchangeably in CF and RF, so Ells is not unexpendable. I'd like to see a guy leading off with speed who can get more walks. And less injury prone. Salaries should be measured in games played, not season length.

[sk7326]

Maybe you are right ... so why are they scouting him? If they fall in love with the guy you just never know. And about the 100M investment ... only half goes against the Cap. Ownership has all kinds of money.

 

The "they are scouting him" stories I think tend to be leverage plays by some source. Teams are getting dimes on everybody. And there is no information advantage in the Nippon league, everybody knows the talent industrywide. I think if they see the stuff and the approach, he'd interest them. With the Japanese guys, the latter is often the problem.

[Dojji]

Maybe you are right ... so why are they scouting him?

 

They're scouting him because he's an option. that's what due dilligence means. you look at all your options, even the ones you aren't seriously considering, just in case there's a chance you overlooked something important.

[Youk Of The Nation]

The last time the Sox paid an exorbitant sum to secure a Japanese pitcher with zero MLB experience whom they expected to anchor their rotation for years to come, it went...poorly. I would advise caution on repeating the endeavor.

[Dojji]

The last time the Sox paid an exorbitant sum to secure a Japanese pitcher with zero MLB experience whom they expected to anchor their rotation for years to come, it went...poorly. I would advise caution on repeating the endeavor.

 

It led to a World Series and a Cy Young candidacy before it went poorly, at least concede that much. Matsuzaka was not nearly as advertized, but he definitely came through for us a few times in the clutch before it fell completely apart.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Yeah, but was it enough to justify what the Sox spent on him? And as much as he helped in his first season, how much did he hinder after that?

[mvp 78]

He was actually better in 08 than 07.

[marklmw]

Yeah, but was it enough to justify what the Sox spent on him? And as much as he helped in his first season, how much did he hinder after that?

 

Some deals eventually come back to bit you but other deals workout ... it is the nature of the game. Did the Sox make revenue in other ways from Dice K? ... I do not know. If you take out the posting fee how over paid was he? Should fans care a dam about what the owners pay for the posting fee or what the payroll is?

Crawford was a much worse signing than Dice K.

[sk7326]

The last time the Sox paid an exorbitant sum to secure a Japanese pitcher with zero MLB experience whom they expected to anchor their rotation for years to come, it went...poorly. I would advise caution on repeating the endeavor.

 

Sox paid a lot of money for Dice K, got some decent value ... was it a success? No, although it was not a failure of scouting or anything. One always got the sense that it was Matsuzaka himself. His amazing ability to limit BABIP (and it is a skill he seemed to legitimately have) allowed him to be decent at times despite being truly horrid to watch for almost all of his career. His 2008 season was probably one of the most overrated seasons in history. His 2007 was at least as good without the shiny sub 3.00 ERA to show for it.

[sk7326]

Some deals eventually come back to bit you but other deals workout ... it is the nature of the game. Did the Sox make revenue in other ways from Dice K? ... I do not know. If you take out the posting fee how over paid was he? Should fans care a dam about what the owners pay for the posting fee or what the payroll is?

Crawford was a much worse signing than Dice K.

 

Crawford was a great athlete coming off of a fringe MVP level season - he was the top free agent position player on the market (or near the top I don't have the list in front of me). The odds he would forget how to play baseball entering his age 30 season more or less completely were extremely low. Really, the big shock was that he fell off a cliff as a defensive player ... for which there was no reasonable explanation.

[Palodios]

Crawford was a great athlete coming off of a fringe MVP level season - he was the top free agent position player on the market (or near the top I don't have the list in front of me). The odds he would forget how to play baseball entering his age 30 season more or less completely were extremely low. Really, the big shock was that he fell off a cliff as a defensive player ... for which there was no reasonable explanation.

 

All the reports seem to claim that the Red Sox did not make much, if any extra revenue because of Dice-k. However, it seems to me that the Red Sox started and stopped displaying Japanese advertisements behind home plate along with Dice-k's starts.

[sk7326]

All the reports seem to claim that the Red Sox did not make much, if any extra revenue because of Dice-k. However, it seems to me that the Red Sox started and stopped displaying Japanese advertisements behind home plate along with Dice-k's starts.

 

The talent evaluation on DiceK was sound - the stuff is still terrific. But his own approach was horrid and never got fixed.

[Dojji]

Yeah, but was it enough to justify what the Sox spent on him? And as much as he helped in his first season, how much did he hinder after that?

 

None of what you say here is wrong, but I'm a big believer in taking the good with the bad and the bad with the good. Daisuke did play a big role in making the playoffs, winning the division, and sweeping the Rockies in the World Series, before he collapsed in subsequent years.

[marklmw]

The talent evaluation on DiceK was sound - the stuff is still terrific. But his own approach was horrid and never got fixed.

 

Dice K tried to be perfect ... it didn't work well. Too many walks ... full counts ... etc. He put his teammates in the field to sleep.

[marklmw]

Here is next seasons starting rotation.

 

Buchholz

Tanaka

Lester

Lackey

Doubront

 

Sox deal off Dempster and Peavy and eat 50% of their salaries.

Edited September 27, 2013 by marklmw

[User Name]

Is this serious? Tanaka hasn't thrown a single MLB pitch. The chances of him being better than Peavy right off the bat are slim at best. Also, you have no clue (and neither do any of us) about how his stuff will translate to MLB. That being said, why take a big gamble on a ?.

 

And your point about us as fans not "having to care about what the owners do with money" is moronic. Of course we should care, because there is a limit to their resources, and when they reach their limit because they're making stupid signings, then years like 2012 happen.

 

Now i'm not saying they shouldn't look into Tanaka, but come on.

[marklmw]

Is this serious? Tanaka hasn't thrown a single MLB pitch. The chances of him being better than Peavy right off the bat are slim at best. Also, you have no clue (and neither do any of us) about how his stuff will translate to MLB. That being said, why take a big gamble on a ?.

 

And your point about us as fans not "having to care about what the owners do with money" is moronic. Of course we should care, because there is a limit to their resources, and when they reach their limit because they're making stupid signings, then years like 2012 happen.

 

Now i'm not saying they shouldn't look into Tanaka, but come on.

 

You make a good point ... Buchholz, Lester, Tanaka, Lackey, Doubront ... and deal off Peavy and Dempster while eating half their salaries and picking up a couple of prospects. I want a stronger 1,2,3 come post season. Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, Dempster ... take your pick on who to let go ... I say Peavy and Dempster ... could be Lackey and Dempster ... but Dempster has to go.

[mvp 78]

So many ellipses.

[Beaneater]

... take your pick on who to let go ... I say Peavy and Dempster ... could be Lackey and Dempster ... but Dempster has to go.

 

There's no point in letting Lackey go because he's making $11.75 next year and leading the team (among qualifiers) in ERA. So he will be back.

[Palodios]

There's no point in letting Lackey go because he's making $11.75 next year and leading the team (among qualifiers) in ERA. So he will be back.

 

Lackey is making 16 million next year, and league minimum the following year. If they try to trade him, he would arguably be worth more than any other free agent starting pitcher, and more than any other possible trade candidates besides Price. If someone was willing to give up an elite prospect like the Will Myer for Shields deal, it might be good to sell high. Otherwise, he has pitched way to well to get kicked off the team.

 

Felix Doubront may be the guy they trade. His work ethnic doesn't seem to be as high as the rest of the group, and with 4 more years of control, he may pull in a quality piece as well.

[Orange Juiced]

Lackey is making 16 million next year, and league minimum the following year. If they try to trade him, he would arguably be worth more than any other free agent starting pitcher, and more than any other possible trade candidates besides Price. If someone was willing to give up an elite prospect like the Will Myer for Shields deal, it might be good to sell high. Otherwise, he has pitched way to well to get kicked off the team.

 

Felix Doubront may be the guy they trade. His work ethnic doesn't seem to be as high as the rest of the group, and with 4 more years of control, he may pull in a quality piece as well.

 

Right. But why trade a promising young lefty who has improved considerably from last year? He's exactly the kind of guy you want to keep.

 

Hey, it's a nice problem to have - too many quality starting pitchers...

[Palodios]

Right. But why trade a promising young lefty who has improved considerably from last year? He's exactly the kind of guy you want to keep.

 

It all depends on what they receive in return.

[User Name]

Or if Doubront improves his overall conditioning. They may tire of his lack of work ethic and do away with him.

[Dojji]

Doubront improved his peripherals pretty much across the board this year. I imagine the team thinks there's further room for improvement, but it's hard to argue that he didn't successfully make progress. he does need to up his durability and get deeper into games, I'd say that's the last frontier for him right now.

[marklmw]

Or if Doubront improves his overall conditioning. They may tire of his lack of work ethic and do away with him.

 

I would imagine that if he improves his overall conditioning he would be improving his work ethic at the same time. Just saying. I think the Sox keep him as he had some good moments this season.

[Palodios]

Doubront improved his peripherals pretty much across the board this year. I imagine the team thinks there's further room for improvement, but it's hard to argue that he didn't successfully make progress. he does need to up his durability and get deeper into games, I'd say that's the last frontier for him right now.

 

Maybe this is just anecdotal, but I remember Doubront being much more dominant last year, but only in stretches. This year he has been much more consistent, but he has lost the dominance. I know we were just arguing about the unimportance of strikeouts in the other thread, but he dropped from 9.34 K/9 to 7.66 K/9.

[User Name]

I would imagine that if he improves his overall conditioning he would be improving his work ethic at the same time. Just saying. I think the Sox keep him as he had some good moments this season.

 

That's what i meant, but i worded it weirdly.