Playoff Decisions

[SoxFanForsyth]

Agreed. Berry hasn't showed anything at the plate, which will be important in the playoffs. He can't just PR in the playoffs with a limited roster.

 

Really?

 

The Sox have brought pinch runners on their roster pretty regularly.

 

'The Red Sox always have carried a pinch-runner in the postseason. You remember Dave Roberts, of course. For that matter, the dual presence of Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp on the roster in 2008 gave the Sox obvious pinch-running options. But you might not recall as clearly the presence of Joey Gathright (2009), Alejandro Machado (2005) and Adrian Brown (2003) on the postseason roster. But there they were. And so, it seems fair to say: Welcome to October, Quintin Berry.'

 

From WEEI

[VA Sox Fan]

Really?

 

The Sox have brought pinch runners on their roster pretty regularly.

 

'The Red Sox always have carried a pinch-runner in the postseason. You remember Dave Roberts, of course. For that matter, the dual presence of Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp on the roster in 2008 gave the Sox obvious pinch-running options. But you might not recall as clearly the presence of Joey Gathright (2009), Alejandro Machado (2005) and Adrian Brown (2003) on the postseason roster. But there they were. And so, it seems fair to say: Welcome to October, Quintin Berry.'

 

From WEEI

 

Exactly. Dave Roberts. No need to say anymore!

[Thunder]

I guess it could work out, but it would mean that the Sox would have one less hitter or one less pitcher, which could be important, especially in a 7 game series.

[sk7326]

I guess it could work out, but it would mean that the Sox would have one less hitter or one less pitcher, which could be important, especially in a 7 game series.

 

The one less pitcher should be a non factor in the postseason - short series, not using all of your starters ... you don't need to stack the bullpen. The choice for the 11 man staff ties their hands more than needed, but whatchagonnado. Berry is a better pinch runner than Bradley - but Bradley runs well and can definitely get from 1st to 3rd. And he can be a defensive replacement if Ellsbury's foot or Victorino's hammy warrants one.

[mvp 78]

I guess it could work out, but it would mean that the Sox would have one less hitter or one less pitcher, which could be important, especially in a 7 game series.

 

^Was 5 when Dave Roberts stole 2nd.

 

Dude, learn your history!

[mvp 78]

JBJ: 7 SB and 7 CS at Pawtucket this year

 

Berry: 22 SB and 0 CS for Detroit and Boston the past two years.

[Thunder]

^Was 5 when Dave Roberts stole 2nd.

 

Dude, learn your history!

 

6 actually. Game 3 was on my 6th birthday. I vaguely recall that series though.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I guess it could work out, but it would mean that the Sox would have one less hitter or one less pitcher, which could be important, especially in a 7 game series.

 

The Sox are much more likely to benefit by getting a key stolen base late in a close game than by pinch hitting for Ellsbury. And if Ells hurts his foot, he won't just miss 1-2 days. It will be 3-4 weeks. Which means you call Bradley up and Ells misses the rest of the PS anyway.

[jung]

If somebody can assure me that Vic and Ells will be able to play every game, then JBJ might be extraneous. But unfortunately, Vic and Ells are dinged up and it is unclear what either will be for the post season. If it becomes clear that both can play and play the way they have played out the later stages of the season, then Berry might be worth having around. If that is not the case, I don't see how you could keep JBJ off. So today, looking at Vic and Ells, I would pick JBJ.

[Bellhorn04]

6 actually. Game 3 was on my 6th birthday. I vaguely recall that series though.

 

I guess I was lucky that way. I was born in 1956 and the Sox absolutely SUCKED until 1967 when I was 11 and just really getting into baseball.

[User Name]

Not that lucky since you had to wait until '04 for a championship.

[sk7326]

Honestly, if the team just said F it, we'll go with 10 pitchers ... that would be optimal. Yeah some lefty feelings will be hurt, but whatever.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If somebody can assure me that Vic and Ells will be able to play every game, then JBJ might be extraneous. But unfortunately, Vic and Ells are dinged up and it is unclear what either will be for the post season. If it becomes clear that both can play and play the way they have played out the later stages of the season, then Berry might be worth having around. If that is not the case, I don't see how you could keep JBJ off. So today, looking at Vic and Ells, I would pick JBJ.

 

No way in hell either Victorino or Ellsbury sit out just 1-2 games in the post season. If anyone misses any time, it's significant time. You don't just take a day here or there. No way.

 

Besides the Sox will have 4 complete days off from the end of the season to the start of the ALDS, that's plenty of time to rest up.

[jung]

No way in hell either Victorino or Ellsbury sit out just 1-2 games in the post season. If anyone misses any time, it's significant time. You don't just take a day here or there. No way.

 

Besides the Sox will have 4 complete days off from the end of the season to the start of the ALDS, that's plenty of time to rest up.

 

I don't think it is an issue of one or two games either. Still, I would wait to see where Vic and Ells were at the point when I absolutely had to make a decision and then decide on Barry vs JBJ if in fact it gets down to a decision between having one or the other. The Sox have no need of making this decision until they absolutely have to make it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't think it is an issue of one or two games either. Still, I would wait to see where Vic and Ells were at the point when I absolutely had to make a decision and then decide on Barry vs JBJ if in fact it gets down to a decision between having one or the other. The Sox have no need of making this decision until they absolutely have to make it.

 

Of course, you're not going to make a decision until you absolutely have to. And bringing Berry is under the assumption that Ellsbury returns and is fine. Obviously, if Ellsbury or Victorino sustain an injury that keeps them from the post season, then you bring Bradley.

[lospunchados]

If somebody can assure me that Vic and Ells will be able to play every game, then JBJ might be extraneous. But unfortunately, Vic and Ells are dinged up and it is unclear what either will be for the post season. If it becomes clear that both can play and play the way they have played out the later stages of the season, then Berry might be worth having around. If that is not the case, I don't see how you could keep JBJ off. So today, looking at Vic and Ells, I would pick JBJ.

 

No one can guarantee any players health but Victorino has been fine and has been playing banged up all year. They have been giving him a day or two off in September to deal with that stuff and his performance has been fine. Ellsbury obviously played half a game last night and will play on the weekend. They then have four days off where they will play a couple of inter squad games and they can monitor him and will have a good idea about his health going forward and that will help them deciding who to take.

[jung]

So I decided to look at post season Game 1 wins as they relate to post season series wins just for the heck of it. Without looking, I did think that winning Game 1 would translate more often than not to a series win and thought that it would be more significant in a 5 game series than a 7 game series. The former is true but not really the latter. Easy to find the data for a seven game series. Harder for a five game series.

 

Regardless of home field, in seven games league championship series, the Game 1 winner is the eventual series winner at a .611 clip. The Game 1 winner in the WS is the eventual series winner at a .635 clip. Yes the Game 1 winner with home field wins the WS at an even higher rate at .677.

 

In the Division Series, the Game 1 winner is the eventual series winner at a .623 clip.

 

Clearly winning Game 1 is a very big deal. The chances of winning either the next 4/6 (7g) or 3/4 (5g) don't look very good. Does sort of come back to the same thing. If winning Game 1 is important then the Game 1 pitching match ups are important.

 

Just for purposes of some perspective, if you laid those percentages out on the 162 regular season, you end up with 100+ win seasons in all cases but .611 which produces a 99 win season.

[a700hitter]

On the Red Sox broadcast yesterday, they said that Farrell would not hesitate to go to Koji for 2 innings in the playoffs. I like that, because the 8th inning situation is probably the team's weakest link

[seabeachfred]

On the Red Sox broadcast yesterday, they said that Farrell would not hesitate to go to Koji for 2 innings in the playoffs. I like that, because the 8th inning situation is probably the team's weakest link

 

I both like it and hate it Ted. Sure, Koji was the best closer in baseball this season but I hate to have to wear out the guy. If we keep advancing in the Playoffs he will be called on a lot more than he was during the regular season if he is expected to pitch two innings most every time out, and that is the dilemma we face because guys like Thornton, Morales, Delarosa, and the rest of the relief crew, save Breslow, have been inconsistent, and now we have Doubrant saying he doesn't want to pitch in relief. I would add Tazawa to that list but that poor guy has been worked to the bone this season. Perhaps with a few more days off he can regain some savvy and strength in his arm and become a dependable reliever again. If we can get solid pitching all down the line we have a chance to make some hay, but it will come down to the pitching and I sure as hell hope the bullpenners stand up and make a statement.

[a700hitter]

I both like it and hate it Ted. Sure, Koji was the best closer in baseball this season but I hate to have to wear out the guy. If we keep advancing in the Playoffs he will be called on a lot more than he was during the regular season if he is expected to pitch two innings most every time out, and that is the dilemma we face because guys like Thornton, Morales, Delarosa, and the rest of the relief crew, save Breslow, have been inconsistent, and now we have Doubrant saying he doesn't want to pitch in relief. I would add Tazawa to that list but that poor guy has been worked to the bone this season. Perhaps with a few more days off he can regain some savvy and strength in his arm and become a dependable reliever again. If we can get solid pitching all down the line we have a chance to make some hay, but it will come down to the pitching and I sure as hell hope the bullpenners stand up and make a statement.

I guess the thought is that he can go 2 innings in some game if the next day is a travel day. If the pitched him back to back days each for 2 innings that would probably not be good.

[sk7326]

I both like it and hate it Ted. Sure, Koji was the best closer in baseball this season but I hate to have to wear out the guy. If we keep advancing in the Playoffs he will be called on a lot more than he was during the regular season if he is expected to pitch two innings most every time out, and that is the dilemma we face because guys like Thornton, Morales, Delarosa, and the rest of the relief crew, save Breslow, have been inconsistent, and now we have Doubrant saying he doesn't want to pitch in relief. I would add Tazawa to that list but that poor guy has been worked to the bone this season. Perhaps with a few more days off he can regain some savvy and strength in his arm and become a dependable reliever again. If we can get solid pitching all down the line we have a chance to make some hay, but it will come down to the pitching and I sure as hell hope the bullpenners stand up and make a statement.

 

I don't think it will be every night. But if we know we are traveling the next day, by all means ... and Uehara pounds the strike zone enough to be able to not run up dangerous pitch counts (for durability). I think Farrell wants to do the usual Tazawa/Breslow thing in the 8th, but now more than ever, you do not want to lose a close game because you did not use your best bullet.

[redsoxrules]

Lester will be the game 1 starter followed by Lackey-Buchholz-Peavey

[Thunder]

Lester will be the game 1 starter followed by Lackey-Buchholz-Peavey

 

Is that it? If so, that means Lester would start games 1, 4, and 7 of the ALCS. Beautiful.

[User Name]

If the Sox pitch Lester three times during the ALCS, i'll buy you a Sox cap.

[SoxSport]

Keeping Thornton instead of Doubront or Bradley might blow up in their faces if Thornton costs them a game in a relief appearance. Doubront's selfish behavior undoubtedly will get him traded. It hurts to have your #5 starter left off the team because he's not a team player. Bradley may be their best outfielder--but we won't know until next spring, unless they add him the next playoff series (?) because of an injury. I don't know if Farrell is playing percentages here. Thornton has sucked consistently for them.

 

The next decision is whether to platoon Drew with Bogaerts against Price or Moore. Depends on how Drew has hit against those pitchers. Drew has played very well 2nd half, and they are partial to him anyways with his big contract. But Bogaerts deserves his shot in the right situation--the experience will make him better. Middlebrooks better produce, or he might wind up on the bench for Bogaerts.

[User Name]

Doubront cannot pitch in relief. It is not a matter of selfishness, but something he simply has been unable to do. Your constant ability to spin stuff around into sensationalist dribble is amazing. Please stop.

[Thunder]

If the Sox pitch Lester three times during the ALCS, i'll buy you a Sox cap.

 

Fine with me. Bring it on.

[redsoxrules]

Koji could easily pitch 2 innings a night in the playoffs. He's so efficient he would do it around 20 pitches so it wouldn't burn him out.

[mvp 78]

Koji could easily pitch 2 innings a night in the playoffs. He's so efficient he would do it around 20 pitches so it wouldn't burn him out.

 

With warm up tosses, that'd be at least 50 pitches a night. He's not doing that.

[redsoxrules]

Most closers throw 20 pitches an outing