Playoff Decisions

[a700hitter]

What did you think I was saying?

I just said that I understood what you meant. Again, the comment I made about the phrase is a pet peeve of mine. It's my issue. So, let me be clear so that we can put this to sleep. It's not you. It's me.

[Orange Juiced]

I just said that I understood what you meant.

 

Again, the comment I made about the phrase is a pet peeve of mine. It's my issue. So, let me be clear so that we can put this to sleep. It's not you. It's me.

 

Yep, we are in agreement on that.

[VA Sox Fan]

Yep, we are in agreement on that.

 

It's a miracle!

[Behindenemylines]

As far as position players Ellsbury's injury could effect things. It not only changes who plays center, but it effects who leads off for you. Hopefully, he returns and that issue goes away. As long as Buchholtz continues to progress it will be him Lester, Lackey and Peavy as the four starters the Sox will go with. With Lester's strong performance today it is looking like he could be your game one starter. I think both Dempster and Doubrount move to the pen to join Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow and Workman. If you go with eleven pitchers that leaves one spot to fill. I think he would be between Thornton and Morales. It seems like Farrell is starting to gain some trust in Morales so he may be that guy. The bench past Ross, Carp and Gomes will be determined based on whether Ellsbury is a go.

[SoxSport]

Looks like Ells might be back next week. Bone fracture apparently is not load bearing.

[wyo-sox]

I hope Vic can get a few extra days off prior to the post season.

[jung]

If we have Vic and especially if we have Vic and Ells there is nothing scary about those big Western Division ballparks. Heck we can gobble up turf better than they can.

[Youk Of The Nation]

My favorite part about Ellsbury and Victorino is how the big outfields work so well for them both defensively and offensively. Run down a liner in the bottom of the inning, triple in the top. It's awesome having both of these guys on one roster.

[Behindenemylines]

I hope Vic can get a few extra days off prior to the post season.

 

Rays lost today so a Sox win and the magic number is 4. Clinching early will allow Sox to set their rotation and give some guys some rest. I think 96 or 97 wins will give them the best record in the AL.

[sk7326]

OK - Buchholz clearly needs to figure out the downward plane on his stuff ... command is shaky but clearly he is healthy and his stuff has not dipped in quality. So the rotation looks to be in good shape, and the "Back 4" in the bullpen is clear (Workman, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow). Figuring out the rest of the staff is another issue - including whether to go with an 11 man unit or a 10 man one.

 

But team is peaking here - oh what a few healthy pitchers can do!

[a700hitter]

OK - Buchholz clearly needs to figure out the downward plane on his stuff ... command is shaky but clearly he is healthy and his stuff has not dipped in quality. So the rotation looks to be in good shape, and the "Back 4" in the bullpen is clear (Workman, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow). Figuring out the rest of the staff is another issue - including whether to go with an 11 man unit or a 10 man one.

 

But team is peaking here - oh what a few healthy pitchers can do!

Dempster has had prior success as a reliever and closer. I would not be surprised if he stepped into Workman's role in the play offs.

[seabeachfred]

Like 'low risk high reward'.

 

Please Bell, stuff that one in your ditty bag. I heard that phrase ad nauseam when Epstein and Francona were patrolling the premises, and I can't recall one of those LRHR ever working out for us under those two save for Dave Roberts and Doug Meinkiewitz (sic) back in 04.

[seabeachfred]

I do think it's a big deal. Taz has generally been a good reliever. Breslow is pretty solid. But man, on the whole, the 7th-8th innings scare me.

 

 

Boy Orange Juiced, I may be going out on a shaky limb here but what about Morales? I wasn't that high on him last season but since he's come back from his injury he has pitched very well for us and seems to have a presence on the mound. Confidence!!!!! He seems to have it when he's out there. He might be the guy you're looking for.

[User Name]

Kevin Millar, Mark Bellhorn, Bronson Arroyo, Bill Mueller, Big Papi. All guys dubbed with the LRHR title that worked out beautifully.

[seabeachfred]

Kevin Millar, Mark Bellhorn, Bronson Arroyo, Bill Mueller, Big Papi. All guys dubbed with the LRHR title that worked out beautifully.

 

OK mastermind, now pick one of those LRHR types that we got who succeeded after 2004.

[User Name]

OK mastermind, now pick one of those LRHR types that we got who succeeded after 2004.

 

Hideki Okajima.

[Youk Of The Nation]

What is the definition of LRHR? Would Koji fit that description?

[User Name]

Probably not, since he was an established reliever coming off a good season (albeit somewhat low on IP) before signing him.

 

A low-risk, high reward guy (which is technically an incorrect term, since the possibility of flopping makes it mid-risk at least) is a guy coming off injury, a guy who's an inconsistent asset, or who's coming from another league who you sign on the cheap expecting above-average production. The "low risk" part comes from the modest economic investment. If they don't pan out, you can just cut 'em without incurring massive losses.

[sk7326]

Whole point of low risk, high reward is to throw a lot of bodies at an answer - Big Papi is obviously your wildest dream. That will almost never happen. But Hideki Okajima for one particularly important season before he turned into a pumpkin? Flags fly forever, and so thus you go fishing again.

 

The question about "how many low risk high reward guys worked out" is really funny - that is the whole point, that not many will work out. But with something like relief pitching, where guys are wildly inconsistent across the board, throwing stuff at the wall is the percentage play.

[Bellhorn04]

Please Bell, stuff that one in your ditty bag. I heard that phrase ad nauseam when Epstein and Francona were patrolling the premises, and I can't recall one of those LRHR ever working out for us under those two save for Dave Roberts and Doug Meinkiewitz (sic) back in 04.

 

That was a joke for 700hitter. I know that expression really pisses him off.

[User Name]

And it works too. Koji was not a "LRHR" guy, but Tampa and Oakland have constructed elite bullpens year after year by patching together almost entire units with LRHR guys, and the rest with internal options and failed starters.

 

This being the core of the argument against paying big money for relief pitching.

 

@sk7326

[Orange Juiced]

Boy Orange Juiced, I may be going out on a shaky limb here but what about Morales? I wasn't that high on him last season but since he's come back from his injury he has pitched very well for us and seems to have a presence on the mound. Confidence!!!!! He seems to have it when he's out there. He might be the guy you're looking for.

 

He's been pretty good, and I hope you're right. Here's his velocity chart from fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=5088&position=P&pitch=FA). Look at the difference in velocity from early in the year til now. Huge difference of about 3-4 mph. He's got great stuff, now that his velocity is back, but his control is what scares me in big spots. But yeah, if he keeps this up, he'll be a huge asset.

 

This is the thing: we can complain about Farrell's bullpen usage the past few weeks, but really, I'm sure at this point he's just trying to find out what he really has that can be used in the playoffs. He had to see if Thornton was up to the task. He has to see if Morales is. He has to find these things out, and that may mean costing us a game or two in the process.

 

But if Morales can answer the bell for this bullpen, that's HUGE.

[sk7326]

And it works too. Koji was not a "LRHR" guy, but Tampa and Oakland have constructed elite bullpens year after year by patching together almost entire units with LRHR guys, and the rest with internal options and failed starters.

 

This being the core of the argument against paying big money for relief pitching.

 

@sk7326

 

I'd even be willing to say Koji was a value play too ... he had a strong track record, but serious durability questions prevented him from getting, oh let's say "Proven Closer" sort of money. The Red Sox did not have to extend a large commitment to him - certainly nothing they'd regret if he flamed out. Koji of course has worked out beyond anyone's wildest expectations - in terms of working back to back days, and being able to negotiate the occasional >3 out save. In fact, he has been so good this year - that even if he sucks next year with his money guaranteed or whatever, his contribution would STILL be a net win for the Red Sox.

[sk7326]

He's been pretty good, and I hope you're right. Here's his velocity chart from fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=5088&position=P&pitch=FA). Look at the difference in velocity from early in the year til now. Huge difference of about 3-4 mph. He's got great stuff, now that his velocity is back, but his control is what scares me in big spots. But yeah, if he keeps this up, he'll be a huge asset.

 

This is the thing: we can complain about Farrell's bullpen usage the past few weeks, but really, I'm sure at this point he's just trying to find out what he really has that can be used in the playoffs. He had to see if Thornton was up to the task. He has to see if Morales is. He has to find these things out, and that may mean costing us a game or two in the process.

 

But if Morales can answer the bell for this bullpen, that's HUGE.

 

Yeah - a lot of it was that. Clearly Wednesday, Farrell was trying to steal that game in Tampa after he had none of the good relievers available. By my count - if we assume an 11 man staff (which I would given Farrell's preferences all season), you have: Lester/Buch/Peavy/Lackey in the rotation, Dempster as a swing man, Uehara/Tazawa/Breslow/Workman as relievers. That leaves 2 spots - I think Morales will get one of them ... he is clearly the best "high leverage" choice among him, De La Rosa and Thornton. The last spot I think depends a lot on their analysis of Doubront. If they just evaluate that his struggles of late are a result of him hitting an innings wall, he might just be a candidate for the DL and another reliever shows up.

 

Farrell could also just stick with 10 pitches - which is my preference but would be counter to how Farrell has deployed his staff all season. That said, the postseason bullpen will have at least two legit 6-out options in Dempster and Workman. (you could add Morales there if you wanted) With more options for multi inning relief, I'd pounce on the chance to try to sneak Berry onto the active playoff roster for instance.

[User Name]

I'd even be willing to say Koji was a value play too ... he had a strong track record, but serious durability questions prevented him from getting, oh let's say "Proven Closer" sort of money. The Red Sox did not have to extend a large commitment to him - certainly nothing they'd regret if he flamed out. Koji of course has worked out beyond anyone's wildest expectations - in terms of working back to back days, and being able to negotiate the occasional >3 out save. In fact, he has been so good this year - that even if he sucks next year with his money guaranteed or whatever, his contribution would STILL be a net win for the Red Sox.

 

Yeah but he got two guaranteed years at good money instead of a pillow contract.

[sk7326]

Yeah but he got two guaranteed years at good money instead of a pillow contract.

 

Year 2 was a vesting option though right? His appearances this year triggered it no?

[User Name]

Year 2 was a vesting option though right? His appearances this year triggered it no?

 

Indeed.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So who is your game one starter? It's clearly either Lester or Buchholz.

 

Argument for Lester: He's been outrageously good in the 2nd half, posting a 2.38 ERA and limiting his walks to 2.14 per 9 in the 2nd half. On top of that, he's only gotten better of late, posting a 1.86 ERA over his last 8 starts, albeit with a 2.48 BB.9. Also, he's going deep into games, averaging over 7.1 IP per start, so he's getting at least 1-2 outs in the 8th inning on average. He's also been healthy all season, and isn't needing to ramp up his innings like Buchholz is.

 

In terms of potential playoff matchups:

 

- Lester vs the Rays has 3 great outings (totaling 20.1 IP, 5 ER) and 1 very bad outing (4.2 IP, 7 ER). The poor outing came in June when he was really scuffling.

-Against Cleveland, 14 IP, 6 ER.

-Against TEX, 12 IP, 6 ER.

 

Arguments for Buchholz As good as Lester has been, if Buchholz was healthy all season, this wouldn't even be an argument. It's Buchholz, and it's not close. Buchholz has to show that he's both healthy and can pitch to the same effectiveness as he did early on. He has had excellent results so far, but his mechanics certainly seemed off against the Yankees. Still, though, he absolutely dominated the Rays in his first start back, and showed that even without his best stuff he can still keep runs off the board. On top of that, he's made 14 starts, and has allowed more than 2 ER in just 1 (!!!!!) of those starts. Think about that for a second.

 

In terms of potential playoff match ups:

 

-Vs TB, Buch has been dominant, 13 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits allowed. Goodness.

-Has not faced Cleveland.

-Has not faced Texas.

 

I also think it's useful to get the opponents splits to see how well they fare against LHP as opposed to RHP.

 

Vs Lefties, the Guardians (#1 in both), the Rays (#4 in wRC+, #5 in OPS), and the Rangers (#10 in wRC+, #6 in OPS) all rank as the best, or at the very least in the top 10 in wRC+ and top 6 in OPS.

 

Vs Righties, the Rays (#5 in wRC+, #8 in OPS) are the best of the 3, while the Guardians (12th in wRC+, 17th in OPS), and the Rangers (12th in OPS, 16th in wRC+) both struggle pretty badly against RHP.

 

So, it appears all 3 teams hit lefties pretty well, and the only team of the 3 that hits RHP well (the Rays) gets shut down against Buchholz every time. It's a no brainer to me. Buchholz should get game 1, provided he continues to progress like he has in his first 2 games back.

[sk7326]

The who's #1 argument is a bit moot ... none of our guys will be pitching 3 times - and with our depth, none should have to - in a best of seven. Really where the #1 matters is: who will pitch Game 5 of the Division Series. Lester is still the safe bet here - with some questions lingering about whether Buchholz can go 110 pitches back to back on 4 days rest (I think he can, but it hasn't happened yet).

[mvp 78]

Lester/Buch/Peavy/Lackey