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Posted
Hideki Okajima.

 

Here's one for you on that one. Good pick. I ought to kick myself in the nuts for forgetting about Oki. He was money in the bank that magical year of 2007....my favorite Red Sox team. In fact he gave us two and a half solid seasons before the league started to catch up with him. You got me there.

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Posted
Disturbing Dempster is still starting with home field on the line. He can't hold a lead, as he showed tonite. I wouldn't underestimate the importance of best record and home field advantage. It could be the difference on getting to the WS--they hit much better in Fenway.
Posted
Disturbing Dempster is still starting with home field on the line. He can't hold a lead, as he showed tonite. I wouldn't underestimate the importance of best record and home field advantage. It could be the difference on getting to the WS--they hit much better in Fenway.

 

He gave up 2 runs in 6 innings. As UN would say, please stop.

Posted
Disturbing Dempster is still starting with home field on the line. He can't hold a lead, as he showed tonite. I wouldn't underestimate the importance of best record and home field advantage. It could be the difference on getting to the WS--they hit much better in Fenway.

 

Well, all the teams hit a little better at home. But when you get to the postseason - home field has had very little bearing on outcomes. Wild Card teams have won playoff series - and do so frequently. Dempster was fine tonight - we know he is not going to make the postseason rotation, but he showed a lot of his value for the team in October.

Posted
If the As get home field, they will be tough to beat. They win those one run games. The tigers are in trouble--Miggy not hitting and Verlander not in form. Dempster? Any pitcher with a 1.5 whip is a liability. Reminds me of Wakefield in his last years.
Posted
If the As get home field, they will be tough to beat. They win those one run games. The tigers are in trouble--Miggy not hitting and Verlander not in form. Dempster? Any pitcher with a 1.5 whip is a liability. Reminds me of Wakefield in his last years.

 

Oh we don't get to where we are this season without Dempster. Even at his worst, he has given starts which would have been taken up by incomparably worse pitchers - certainly we would have made the playoffs in 2011 if he was on the team. His numbers are a liability as a starter - but if you look at how he has done early in games, and his strikeout rate - he profiles as a serious bullpen asset for the postseason.

 

The one run games are largely coin flips (Oakland who of course lost a series with home field advantage) ... Red Sox look pretty good in a bullpen v bullpen match with anybody.

 

At the end of the day, the playoffs involve winning 11 games after having to slog through nearly 6 months of everyday baseball. Total crapshoot, and the best team often does not win. (heck it's been a decade since the NL has had the league's best team imo)

Posted

So the way the Sox have reset the rotation going forward (Lackey - Peavy - Buchholz - Lester - Lackey in next 5 games), it looks like the postseason rotation will be Lester - Lackey - Buchholz - Peavy.

 

Thoughts on this?

 

Initially, I hated it. I think Buchholz gives us a much better shot to win than Lackey.

 

But, the more I thought about it, I came away with 3 points that made me perfectly content with the decision.

 

1. Regardless of whether you go Buch - Lackey or Lackey - Buch, it doesn't much matter as they both only get one start in the ALDS, and they're both guaranteed a start in the ALDS. So there really isn't a huge difference, which brings me to point #2.

 

2. If there is not a huge difference (as stated above), then you can start to look at some splits, and you see Lackey has absolutely dominated at home (2.47 ERA at home, 4.39 ERA on the road), so getting him his start at Fenway could serve us well. I'm not sure how much stock I put into these numbers, but it may be part of the decision making process. As a side note, Buchholz has a 1.99 ERA at Fenway, and a 0.95 ERA away from Fenway.

 

3. This is probably the biggest of the 3. If the Sox can clinch the best record in the AL, it means they're going to face the WC winner. That wild card winner will attempt, at all costs other than missing the PS, to line up their ace to pitch in the play-in game. That means the Red Sox will likely face the WC pitchers in the order of #2 vs Lester, #3 vs Lackey, and #1 vs Buchholz. So, Buchholz, who probably is the Sox best bet to match up toe to toe with another team's ace, will probably draw the other team's ace rather than Lackey pitching away from Fenway against the other team's ace.

 

Obviously #3 is completely contingent on the team locking up the WC early enough to line up their SP, and who knows how that will go, but at least from today those are the 3 points that make me a bit more comfortable with the way things are lined up right now.

Posted
So the way the Sox have reset the rotation going forward (Lackey - Peavy - Buchholz - Lester - Lackey in next 5 games), it looks like the postseason rotation will be Lester - Lackey - Buchholz - Peavy.

 

Thoughts on this?

 

Initially, I hated it. I think Buchholz gives us a much better shot to win than Lackey.

 

But, the more I thought about it, I came away with 3 points that made me perfectly content with the decision.

 

1. Regardless of whether you go Buch - Lackey or Lackey - Buch, it doesn't much matter as they both only get one start in the ALDS, and they're both guaranteed a start in the ALDS. So there really isn't a huge difference, which brings me to point #2.

 

2. If there is not a huge difference (as stated above), then you can start to look at some splits, and you see Lackey has absolutely dominated at home (2.47 ERA at home, 4.39 ERA on the road), so getting him his start at Fenway could serve us well. I'm not sure how much stock I put into these numbers, but it may be part of the decision making process. As a side note, Buchholz has a 1.99 ERA at Fenway, and a 0.95 ERA away from Fenway.

 

3. This is probably the biggest of the 3. If the Sox can clinch the best record in the AL, it means they're going to face the WC winner. That wild card winner will attempt, at all costs other than missing the PS, to line up their ace to pitch in the play-in game. That means the Red Sox will likely face the WC pitchers in the order of #2 vs Lester, #3 vs Lackey, and #1 vs Buchholz. So, Buchholz, who probably is the Sox best bet to match up toe to toe with another team's ace, will probably draw the other team's ace rather than Lackey pitching away from Fenway against the other team's ace.

 

Obviously #3 is completely contingent on the team locking up the WC early enough to line up their SP, and who knows how that will go, but at least from today those are the 3 points that make me a bit more comfortable with the way things are lined up right now.

I like it. I think it is the right decision. Lester seems to be back where he was 2-3 years ago. He's attavking the zone and his ball has movement. He has been the horse with the one exception of a little skid that he hit mid season. Lackey may be our best pitcher at this point in time. He is throwing harder now than he has in years, and the guy knows how to pitch. Buch is great, but he is still getting himself back togather and rebuilding arm strength and stamina. He could blow up with a bad game if he is not yet back in synch. Peavy is a good veteran who should rise to the ocassion. He'll have to be watched closely for signs of his stuff dropping off mid game. Doubs and Dempster can piggy-back if need be on Buch and Peavy in long relief. I am much more concerned about the bulpen than the starters. Koji is money, but who gets the 7th and 8th innings--- mix and match with Breslow and Taz as the main guys?
Posted
I like it. I think it is the right decision. Lester seems to be back where he was 2-3 years ago. He's attavking the zone and his ball has movement. He has been the horse with the one exception of a little skid that he hit mid season. Lackey may be our best pitcher at this point in time. He is throwing harder now than he has in years, and the guy knows how to pitch. Buch is great, but he is still getting himself back togather and rebuilding arm strength and stamina. He could blow up with a bad game if he is not yet back in synch. Peavy is a good veteran who should rise to the ocassion. He'll have to be watched closely for signs of his stuff dropping off mid game. Doubs and Dempster can piggy-back if need be on Buch and Peavy in long relief. I am much more concerned about the bulpen than the starters. Koji is money, but who gets the 7th and 8th innings--- mix and match with Breslow and Taz as the main guys?

 

The best way to describe the Red Sox SP right now (and I heard someone say this on WEEI last week): Lester is the best pitcher right now, Lackey has been the most consistently good pitcher all year, and Buchholz has the best stuff on the team.

 

Like I said, I like the way it's lined up, it just took me a little digging in and thinking to understand it.

 

As for the 7th and 8th, I have no idea. A combo of Workman/Breslow/Tazawa/Dempster, I think. I actually really like Dempster/Workman/Britton in a 7th inning role, and Tazawa/Breslow in the 8th inning, mainly playing matchups.

 

For what it's worth (and I think it's worth something), Dempster has a 2.17 ERA in the 1st inning this year, which I believe will translate into some bullpen success.

Posted

Lester at the top is obvious - most consistent of the pitchers, best equipped to get 225-250 pitches on four days rest. He has shown this year that his 2009-2010 self is not dead, and has found it often enough to be optimistic. Games 2-4 are interchangeable, although the Game 4 starter has a chance to go into mothballs for a long time, and that has to be considered - although personally I'd move him up to the Game 2 starter in the next series if we are fortunate enough.

 

Bullpen? Tazawa/Uehara/Breslow are obvious. I think Workman and Dempster have shown enough that they will be clear options. You get two of Morales/Doubront/Britton for the rest. My guess is one of Morales/Doubront get squeezed out, as they are performing the same role.

 

It's October - so the goal is for the starters to take the 7th inning out of play as much as possible. That said, I expect to play matchups in the 7th and 8th. The money is on the table now, and Farrell has smartly started to stretch Uehara out. Obviously I don't expect him to get 5 out work on back to back days, but for a game 2 where there is a travel day built in - I do not think Farrell will hesitate to pull the alarm for Uehara in the 8th when necessary.

Posted
Oh we don't get to where we are this season without Dempster. Even at his worst, he has given starts which would have been taken up by incomparably worse pitchers - certainly we would have made the playoffs in 2011 if he was on the team. His numbers are a liability as a starter - but if you look at how he has done early in games, and his strikeout rate - he profiles as a serious bullpen asset for the postseason.

 

The one run games are largely coin flips (Oakland who of course lost a series with home field advantage) ... Red Sox look pretty good in a bullpen v bullpen match with anybody.

 

At the end of the day, the playoffs involve winning 11 games after having to slog through nearly 6 months of everyday baseball. Total crapshoot, and the best team often does not win. (heck it's been a decade since the NL has had the league's best team imo)

 

This is what bothers me most about the reliance on stats. SF was in fact the best TEAM in baseball. They were so much the better team than Detroit that they blew Detroit right off the playing field. It was not even close. If the Sox go all the way this year, it will be for exactly the same reason. They will be the better team. Oakland is in fact a very good team. They would not scare me as much as Detroit if the Tigers had all their weapons. Cabrera is not hitting because he is hurt....may even be too hurt to play at all. Now Iggy is hurt....Detroit may just be doomed this season.

 

If all of the possible opponents could deploy all of their weapons I would be more concerned with Detroit than Oakland. If Detroit continues to roll on toward the hospital I think it likely that they will roll right past the hospital to the morgue. I would be more concerned with Oakland then. However if we have both Ells and Vic playing as they can play, then that big ballpark in Oakland does not scare me at all. We may even be a better team in OCC than the A's.

 

As long as we have Ells and Vic with our pitching, we can likely play anywhere with anybody. Without those two guys, the Sox are a completely different team. The way Lester is pitching now he may well be able to put up a performance that can stand up to anything an opponent pitcher can put up. It really more depends on what is going on between Lester's ears the day he takes the mound. That does scare me a bit because LH pitchers don't just get f***ed when they are not right in Fenway...they get gang raped. Wish we had the Buch we had but I said all along that I thought it was unlikely and it looks more unlikely now. As for Lackey in the 2 hole, there is no question but that he does pitch better in Fenway. As it stands now, I like Lackey in the 2 hole.

Posted

Dempster is in the BP--maybe his best role at this point in his career. Doubront had a good game yesterday, so he is in reserve as a starter/ early reliever. Morales seems to be peaking. Tazawa is the only questionmark in the BP. He is on the decline, and probably should be replaced in the setup role.

 

I wonder where Bradley fits post season? He has been playing well enough--showing some power. Early in the season, he was valued for his defense and speed. They have a lot of guys ahead of him in the OF, including the rabbit Berry? who is valuable off the bench. They need to keep him in reserve in case of injury.

 

Middlebrooks vs Bogaerts at 3b is another interesting situation. Bogaerts is the better hitter right now. In addition, he might be better than Drew at SS against LHP, though Drew is at his high point in the season hitting-wise. It looks like they might even bring him back next year.

 

Farrell needs to go with the guys who are sharp right now. Forget loyalty and sentimentality. The teams that win in the playoffs are the hottest teams right now--not the teams with the best records over the season.

Posted

JBJ should only be on the roster if Ells is not ready to go.

 

Not sure Xander would start any games in the playoffs as Farrell has been riding Drew and WMB ever since Xander was called up. Right handed bat off the bench, maybe.

Posted
JBJ should only be on the roster if Ells is not ready to go.

 

Not sure Xander would start any games in the playoffs as Farrell has been riding Drew and WMB ever since Xander was called up. Right handed bat off the bench, maybe.

 

Yeah I can see him as a late game PH for Drew, or, if Drew really struggles vs LHP in the PS, maybe start Bogaerts vs a tough LHP deeper into October.

 

But certainly, Drew gets the first shot against LHP.

 

As for JBJ, I am not sure he makes the roster. I think the 25th slot will go to Quentin Berry myself. Since we're only carrying 4 SP and 7 RP, that leaves an extra slot for a position player, and I think Berry gets it as a PR.

Posted
Dempster is in the BP--maybe his best role at this point in his career. Doubront had a good game yesterday, so he is in reserve as a starter/ early reliever. Morales seems to be peaking. Tazawa is the only questionmark in the BP. He is on the decline, and probably should be replaced in the setup role.

 

I wonder where Bradley fits post season? He has been playing well enough--showing some power. Early in the season, he was valued for his defense and speed. They have a lot of guys ahead of him in the OF, including the rabbit Berry? who is valuable off the bench. They need to keep him in reserve in case of injury.

 

Middlebrooks vs Bogaerts at 3b is another interesting situation. Bogaerts is the better hitter right now. In addition, he might be better than Drew at SS against LHP, though Drew is at his high point in the season hitting-wise. It looks like they might even bring him back next year.

 

Farrell needs to go with the guys who are sharp right now. Forget loyalty and sentimentality. The teams that win in the playoffs are the hottest teams right now--not the teams with the best records over the season.

 

Farrell has 14 spots based on how they are going to deploy the roster - I am not sure 11 pitchers are necessary (you probably only really need one of the Doubront/Morales/Britton trio but it is a minor quibble). So what does that mean? Assuming Ellsbury is ok.

 

CF: Ellsbury

RF: Victorino

LF: Nava

1B: Napoli

2B: Pedroia

SS: Drew

3B: Middlebrooks

C: Saltalamacchia

DH: Ortiz

 

So 5 more spots: Carp, Ross, Gomes are obvious. That gets us down to 2 spots. I'd take Bradley for one of them. I am not betting anything important on Ellsbury AND Victorino both being able to play every day for the next month. If you would rather take Berry for that role with his pinch running, I get it - but I'd prefer the guy who can actually play in a real game. Remember, switching the roster during the series means the guy is out until the World Series. So the last spot has to be a backup infielder sort. If we are talking defensive replacement, you'd go with McDonald. If you want somebody who has a better chance of contributing at the plate, it is Bogaerts. We know Middlebrooks can fake 2B if we absolutely have to - so that is a possible option. I would love to have Berry there, but as long as the decision is to carry 11 pitchers - there might just not be room.

 

I also would not call it sentimentality. You have to go with the best options, and the body of work and current health is the only way to do it. This has been good enough to be the best team in baseball - have to hope it works out.

Posted
This is what bothers me most about the reliance on stats. SF was in fact the best TEAM in baseball. They were so much the better team than Detroit that they blew Detroit right off the playing field. It was not even close. If the Sox go all the way this year, it will be for exactly the same reason. They will be the better team. Oakland is in fact a very good team. They would not scare me as much as Detroit if the Tigers had all their weapons. Cabrera is not hitting because he is hurt....may even be too hurt to play at all. Now Iggy is hurt....Detroit may just be doomed this season.

 

If all of the possible opponents could deploy all of their weapons I would be more concerned with Detroit than Oakland. If Detroit continues to roll on toward the hospital I think it likely that they will roll right past the hospital to the morgue. I would be more concerned with Oakland then. However if we have both Ells and Vic playing as they can play, then that big ballpark in Oakland does not scare me at all. We may even be a better team in OCC than the A's.

 

As long as we have Ells and Vic with our pitching, we can likely play anywhere with anybody. Without those two guys, the Sox are a completely different team. The way Lester is pitching now he may well be able to put up a performance that can stand up to anything an opponent pitcher can put up. It really more depends on what is going on between Lester's ears the day he takes the mound. That does scare me a bit because LH pitchers don't just get f***ed when they are not right in Fenway...they get gang raped. Wish we had the Buch we had but I said all along that I thought it was unlikely and it looks more unlikely now. As for Lackey in the 2 hole, there is no question but that he does pitch better in Fenway. As it stands now, I like Lackey in the 2 hole.

 

Detroit had a better rotation and better lineup than the Giants. The Giants starters pitched better - it's baseball, sometimes it's not that complicated. The Cardinals in 2006 were an 83-79 who finished the season on a 6 game losing streak and won the World Series. Can you blow out a team without the better team? The 1990 Reds did it to a vastly superior Oakland team. So let's get that out of the way. The playoffs will do a lot of things - identify the best team in the league is not one of them. But that's cool - baseball playoffs are the most exciting there are.

 

Ultimately if you have bat-missing pitching - it is a good first step to winning short series. Red Sox are 4th in the AL in Strikeout percentage ... alas the Tigers, Rays and Guardians are the Top 3. A's are near the bottom, but the ballpark where fly balls go to die helps salve that. The offense clearly can hang with anybody - and it's not about putting up 10 runs a game. It is that the offense can grind out at-bats and create scoring chances ... and the more opportunities you get, blah blah blah.

Posted
Yeah I can see him as a late game PH for Drew, or, if Drew really struggles vs LHP in the PS, maybe start Bogaerts vs a tough LHP deeper into October.

 

But certainly, Drew gets the first shot against LHP.

 

As for JBJ, I am not sure he makes the roster. I think the 25th slot will go to Quentin Berry myself. Since we're only carrying 4 SP and 7 RP, that leaves an extra slot for a position player, and I think Berry gets it as a PR.

 

That's pretty much what I was thinking.

 

Bigger question marks in the bp. Basically, pick 2 out of these guys: Doubront, Britton, Workman and Thornton. Uehara, Taz, Dempster, Breslow and Morales are locks. Farrell goes with Workman (RHP) and Thornton.

Posted
That's pretty much what I was thinking.

 

Bigger question marks in the bp. Basically, pick 2 out of these guys: Doubront, Britton, Workman and Thornton. Uehara, Taz, Dempster, Breslow and Morales are locks. Farrell goes with Workman (RHP) and Thornton.

 

Yeah I think the pen will shape up like that as well. Although to be completely honest, I think I'd rather see Britton than Thornton, and also, I wish they would have had a better look at Webster coming out of the bullpen because he could have been a huge wild card that caught lightening, kind of like he did in Spring Training.

Posted
Ultimately if you have bat-missing pitching - it is a good first step to winning short series.

 

I would be more worried about Detroit if Scherzer were not one of the guys that appears to be finding his way to the training table lately and Verlander is not the Verlander he was once. I always think that the elephant in the room, especially in a short series is the big 1 in the rotation. But it does look like something is going on with Scherzer. If he has come back a rung on the ladder, either injury or innings...whatever...then Detroit really does not have an advantage over the Sox in the rotation.

 

I honestly don't think it is at all a happenstance that the Giants beat the s*** out of Detroit in that WS. They didn't just beat them...they beat them to a pulp. They took a typically put together AL team of hippos and elephants and stats oriented power hitters and used a much more organized offensive process combined with pitching and defense which simply ran over the idea of just waiting for one of the hippos to hit a homer. Leyland even said it at the end. "When you get beat like this, there is nothing to be said...you lost to the better team".

 

Post season play brings to bear everything that scouts and pitching staffs have learned about every hitter in your lineup. Any weakness is exploited to the max during every AB. That simply does not happen in the regular season. Teams often don't have the pitching to do it and they certainly do not have the wealth of info on every hitter that they have at the end, nor the ability to focus all of their attention on one team of hitters. Most of these contests end up low scoring grinders. This year may well come down to bullpens and in the case of the Sox, what Dempster can really give us and when or maybe even how often and for how long. Getting the ball to Ueh was the biggest problem the Sox had all year. Likely still to be the case in the post season. Did not often get exposed because the starting pitching top to bottom was so good but it is the biggest problem the Sox have.

Posted
This is what bothers me most about the reliance on stats. SF was in fact the best TEAM in baseball. They were so much the better team than Detroit that they blew Detroit right off the playing field. It was not even close. If the Sox go all the way this year, it will be for exactly the same reason. They will be the better team. Oakland is in fact a very good team. They would not scare me as much as Detroit if the Tigers had all their weapons. Cabrera is not hitting because he is hurt....may even be too hurt to play at all. Now Iggy is hurt....Detroit may just be doomed this season.

 

No they weren't, and this makes very little sense. They were a very good team in a weak division that got hot at the right time. The playoffs are a crapshoot, and this is a good example of that, because the Tigers were a better team.

Posted
Britton over Thornton. Thornton is a heart attack.

 

Just think Farrell will go with Thornton. I'd probably take Britton as well.

Posted (edited)

The Globe article today says, "Do the Red Sox need home field advantage?"

 

The answer is in the won-loss data during the season. The Red Sox won 2 out of 3 games at home, 1 out of 2 games on the road. The As home-road record is almost identical: 2 of 3 at home, 1 of 2 on the road. The few remaining games won't change that.

 

The answer is the home field advantage will probably be the difference to getting to the World Series--where the AL has home field this year. Home field teams have been winning the WS lately. The other factor is what teams are hot right now. The As have had the best September: 16-5, Guardians 2nd 15-6, Red Sox 3rd 14-6. Pretty close.

 

Getting the best record is critical. They are currently 1.5 games ahead of the As. 5 games left for the Sox, 6 games for the As. All on the road.

 

The Red Sox wind up in Baltimore for the final 3--a chance to knock the Os out of the playoffs--like the Os did a couple years ago to them. Think there's an incentive?

Edited by SoxSport
Posted

Home field is nice but assures very little.

 

Starting with the Red Sox ... they won 2/3 of their home games and 1/2 of the roadies. So - to keep things simple, 2/3 likely they win a home game, 1/2 likely they win a road game against average competition. If they have home field, you'd expect a 3 game sweep to occur (in a best of 5) 22% of the time. If they DIDN'T have home field, it drops to 17%. It's a significant drop, but not as stark as you think. (extend this out to all of the other best of 5 scenarios and the Red Sox would be 70% with home field, 63% without)

 

Now, in real life - against better competition you are probably looking at more like 60% at home, 40% on the road. Then you are talking about a drop from 54% to 46%, which is the difference between favorite and underdog although still basically a coin flip.

 

Probabilities aside, home field is one extra home game per series - assuming coin flip odds the rest of the time. But does it matter THAT much for a single game? In sports like basketball and football without a doubt - but in baseball, the rotating starting pitcher basically means you are playing a different team every day in the series. You go to individual matchups and such then - I mean in a best of 7 you are basically evaluating #3 starters.

Posted
Yeah I can see him as a late game PH for Drew, or, if Drew really struggles vs LHP in the PS, maybe start Bogaerts vs a tough LHP deeper into October.

 

But certainly, Drew gets the first shot against LHP.

 

As for JBJ, I am not sure he makes the roster. I think the 25th slot will go to Quentin Berry myself. Since we're only carrying 4 SP and 7 RP, that leaves an extra slot for a position player, and I think Berry gets it as a PR.

 

The way Farrell has used Berry recently makes me wonder whether it is even necessary to have him on the playoff roster. He has been put in as a runner numerous times the past week and never tried to steal a base. He was sacrificed one time and twice he remained glued to the first base bag. If we aren't going to run him we should add Bradley to the roster instead IMHO. At least Bradley can swing a bat.......well some of the time anyway.

Posted
The way Farrell has used Berry recently makes me wonder whether it is even necessary to have him on the playoff roster. He has been put in as a runner numerous times the past week and never tried to steal a base. He was sacrificed one time and twice he remained glued to the first base bag. If we aren't going to run him we should add Bradley to the roster instead IMHO. At least Bradley can swing a bat.......well some of the time anyway.

 

Berry HAS attempted steals before though ... and more than that the ability to get from 1st to 3rd on a non trivial hit or score on a double matters too. I don't think the stolen base has to be the extent of his value on the bases. I lean towards Bradley myself just because Ellsbury and Victorino have both missed time this season and have nagging things going on - and with the roster limitations, having a guy who can actually start at those positions carries some extra weight.

Posted
If the choice is Bradley or Barry it has to be Bradley...no question about it.

 

Agreed. Berry hasn't showed anything at the plate, which will be important in the playoffs. He can't just PR in the playoffs with a limited roster.

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