Will Middlebrooks

[jung]

Well I don't know what deal Drew made with himself or with the devil to be playing like he has played in the field particularly since the WS started with what was that....a 6-3 as I recall. I have to admit noting to myself even on that very first defensive play of the WS, a backhand moving to his right and throw, how that was not an easy as pie first defensive play of the series that Drew made look ridiculously graceful and smooth. I remember thinking, wow, how good do these guys feel about their defense seeing that thing right off the top of the WS.

 

I noted this earlier in another thread. For me the significant change in Drew's defense is that I have never seen him for such a long stretch fielding the ball at the very peak of his abilities. getting the ball through the transition at the peak of his abilities and throwing the ball at the very peak of his abilities all at the same time. I have seen him do one or two very well and the other at the zenith but not all three at the same time at the zenith.

 

How much of a change is that defensively? Well here is a shocker....He was a better SS than Iggy in the Detroit series and he was not quite showing us the very peak of his defensive capabilities in that series. Iggy was flashier.....Drew was better.

 

Once he got to the WS, there was another gear still left in Steven and I have never seen him like this were the ball is just flowing into his glove through the transition and out of his throwing hand so smoothly and gracefully. In a series that has swung to date on pitching and defense and occupying the middle infield with one of the great clutch middle infielders of all time, Pedey, Drew has been IMO the defensive star of the series and the defensive star of the post season. No slight to Pedey. Drew has just been that good playing in the premier defensive position on the field.

[sk7326]

Drew has been so good that he can go 4 for 48 and keeping him in the lineup is a no-brainer. He has been crucial to the run prevention effort here.

[marklmw]

Middlebrooks is a royal pain in the ass. I say this because I would like to re-sign Drew to a 30M / 3 contract and let Bogaerts play 3rd for the next 15 or so years. I have this feeling that a Drew / Bogaerts infield will better a Bogaerts / Middlebrooks both offensively and defensively. This is in my gut. Go to Drew and explain that you want to bring the team back to make a repeat run.

[mvp 78]

You maximize Xander's value at SS. I wouldn't bring Drew back. I'd rather the money spent elsewhere.

[sk7326]

A Drew/Bogaerts infield would be better this month for sure. And there are questions about Bogaerts' defense at SS. He should be able to make all the normal plays, but yes there will be a dropoff from Drew. At the same time, the analysis short shrifts Middlebrooks. He is too young and his tools are too good to give up on. You substitute him with Bogaerts in the postseason because he was slumping and the Sox had a decent option (and the one time to have short term thinking is the playoffs). But he still has a solid above average 3B sort of future in him - his mechanics improved with his tour in the minors, enough to respect his credentials for being the 3B next season. Guys with his athletic ability are good candidates to "get it".

[SoxSport]

Tough call right now. Middlebrooks is still inconsistent. They have other talent in the minors at 3B and SS, so Will could be traded. On the other hand, Drew's agent is Boras, and I doubt they will overpay for him with Bogaerts there. Bogaerts looked pretty good to me defensively at both positions, and he is bound to get better. Drew is far from an elite player. Bogaerts could be another Tulowitski--without the injuries.

[marklmw]

A Drew/Bogaerts infield would be better this month for sure. And there are questions about Bogaerts' defense at SS. He should be able to make all the normal plays, but yes there will be a dropoff from Drew. At the same time, the analysis short shrifts Middlebrooks. He is too young and his tools are too good to give up on. You substitute him with Bogaerts in the postseason because he was slumping and the Sox had a decent option (and the one time to have short term thinking is the playoffs). But he still has a solid above average 3B sort of future in him - his mechanics improved with his tour in the minors, enough to respect his credentials for being the 3B next season. Guys with his athletic ability are good candidates to "get it".

This is exactly why Middlebrooks is such a pain in the ass. Who changes a game more ... a hitter or a SP? You can pitch around a hot hitter can you not. Let Middlebrooks play next season in Pawtucket and if he lights it up we can make a trade for a top pitching prospect. We can always trade Drew if we decide to go with Bogaerts / Middlebrooks but I have this feeling that Middlebrooks will never accomplish an acceptable OBP and the Sox ownership are believers in Moneyball principals. I think it will be a mistake to let Drew get away. Much like Beltre. Go to Drew and explain that you want to make a REPEAT run. I think he will take a 30M / 3. He enjoys playing in Boston.

[vjcsmoke]

I think that Middlebrooks will be end up getting traded. If we can get an elite 1st base prospect, maybe we move him for someone who is MLB ready to play 1st but is blocked in the pipeline. It is no sure thing that we get back Napoli.

 

This is exactly why Middlebrooks is such a pain in the ass. Who changes a game more ... a hitter or a SP? You can pitch around a hot hitter can you not. Let Middlebrooks play next season in Pawtucket and if he lights it up we can make a trade for a top pitching prospect. We can always trade Drew if we decide to go with Bogaerts / Middlebrooks but I have this feeling that Middlebrooks will never accomplish an acceptable OBP and the Sox ownership are believers in Moneyball principals. I think it will be a mistake to let Drew get away. Much like Beltre. Go to Drew and explain that you want to make a REPEAT run. I think he will take a 30M / 3. He enjoys playing in Boston.

 

I think 3/30 is a bit much for a guy with no bat. Love Drew's defense but his hitting makes me cringe. He was like 5/40 in the World Series or something like that?

[sk7326]

This is exactly why Middlebrooks is such a pain in the ass. Who changes a game more ... a hitter or a SP? You can pitch around a hot hitter can you not. Let Middlebrooks play next season in Pawtucket and if he lights it up we can make a trade for a top pitching prospect. We can always trade Drew if we decide to go with Bogaerts / Middlebrooks but I have this feeling that Middlebrooks will never accomplish an acceptable OBP and the Sox ownership are believers in Moneyball principals. I think it will be a mistake to let Drew get away. Much like Beltre. Go to Drew and explain that you want to make a REPEAT run. I think he will take a 30M / 3. He enjoys playing in Boston.

 

A starting pitcher can change an individual game more. A hitter can change a season more. The Sox DO believe in Moneyball principles, and moneyball does not mean "OBP, OBP, OBP". Middlebrooks is never going to be a high OBP guy - that is obvious. But there is a lot of talent there, and the OBP only has to be high enough to allow the rest of his game to fluorish. When you see what a valuable player Josh Reddick was in 2012, you can see that the threshold for OBP for a guy with some real talent and ability in the rest of the game, is not actually that unreachable.

[sk7326]

I think that Middlebrooks will be end up getting traded. If we can get an elite 1st base prospect, maybe we move him for someone who is MLB ready to play 1st but is blocked in the pipeline. It is no sure thing that we get back Napoli.

 

 

 

I think 3/30 is a bit much for a guy with no bat. Love Drew's defense but his hitting makes me cringe. He was like 5/40 in the World Series or something like that?

 

He had an awful slump. He has a bat though - right there among the good SS bats. That he strikes out a lot should not obscure that he is a pretty good offensive player by today's shortstop standard.

[marklmw]

He had an awful slump. He has a bat though - right there among the good SS bats. That he strikes out a lot should not obscure that he is a pretty good offensive player by today's shortstop standard.

 

Some players are consistent throughout a season while most players have hot and cold streaks. Drew had a cold streak at the wrong time but his glove was amazing. I would like to have his glove come the postseason when runs and errors are magnified. Drew looks much better at the plate in Games 5 & 6 of the WS.

[User Name]

It's funny you use a Beltre comparison when speaking about Drew, since Beltre and WMB have very similar skillsets.

[marklmw]

It's funny you use a Beltre comparison when speaking about Drew, since Beltre and WMB have very similar skillsets.

 

I don't know UN ... I have much respect for your baseball knowledge but Beltre's average numbers for past 4 years is an OBP of .357 and WAR of 6.3. Do you really think that WMB has Beltre type potential? Do not get me wrong I hope the lad can turn things around and reach this potential. Are you suggesting that WMB can grow to be a Beltre type player based on his similar skill-set. The problem with Boston now is that the expectations have risen and thus the win now attitude ... Drew / Bogaerts or Bogaerts / Middlebrooks ... which would you bet on for the next 3 years?

[Bellhorn04]

I think 3/30 is a bit much for a guy with no bat. Love Drew's defense but his hitting makes me cringe. He was like 5/40 in the World Series or something like that?

 

He had a .777 OPS in the regular season with 13 HR and 67 RBI in 124 games. Excellent numbers for a SS. He hit a nasty slump in the postseason.

[User Name]

I don't know UN ... I have much respect for your baseball knowledge but Beltre's average numbers for past 4 years is an OBP of .357 and WAR of 6.3. Do you really think that WMB has Beltre type potential? Do not get me wrong I hope the lad can turn things around and reach this potential. Are you suggesting that WMB can grow to be a Beltre type player based on his similar skill-set. The problem with Boston now is that the expectations have risen and thus the win now attitude ... Drew / Bogaerts or Bogaerts / Middlebrooks ... which would you bet on for the next 3 years?

 

Look at Beltre's early-career numbers (Dodgers stadium notwithstanding), and scouting reports for both players. In-his-prime Adrian Beltre is exactly what WMB could become if he refined his plate approach, but with inferior defense. The Sox would be wise to exercise patience with the kid lest reach his ceiling with another team and make the Sox look like fools. You can teach and fix approach, but you can't teach tools.

[marklmw]

Look at Beltre's early-career numbers (Dodgers stadium notwithstanding), and scouting reports for both players. In-his-prime Adrian Beltre is exactly what WMB could become if he refined his plate approach, but with inferior defense. The Sox would be wise to exercise patience with the kid lest reach his ceiling with another team and make the Sox look like fools. You can teach and fix approach, but you can't teach tools.

Could you see the Sox signing Drew and beginning the year with either Bogarts or WMB in Pawtucket. If Bogaerts spends 30 days + in AAA I believe that the Sox will gain an extra year of control over him. If Middlebrooks begins in AAA and lights it up could the Sox not deal Drews contract. With 3 players in the mix we will have a good probability that 2 of 3 work out. If all 3 work out then all the better. What do you think?

[User Name]

I like Drew, but don't think the Sox will retain him unless it's on a 2-year deal at most, and someone will offer three.

[marklmw]

I like Drew, but don't think the Sox will retain him unless it's on a 2-year deal at most, and someone will offer three.

Seems to me that since QO's need to be tendered by this coming Monday it handcuff's management ... do you think that Sox management is trying to sign any of the 4 free agents over the weekend?

[User Name]

Probably not. They will extend the corresponding QO's, then take their time negotiating with the ones they are interested in bringing back.

[marklmw]

Probably not. They will extend the corresponding QO's, then take their time negotiating with the ones they are interested in bringing back.

 

OK ... makes sense. Any deal they come to obviously voids the QO. Is the amount of all QO's the same. For example does player position determine the amount of the QO? offering 14M to Ellsbury is more viable than offering 14M to Salty.

[User Name]

OK ... makes sense. Any deal they come to obviously voids the QO. Is the amount of all QO's the same. For example does player position determine the amount of the QO? offering 14M to Ellsbury is more viable than offering 14M to Salty.

 

The QO's amount is set in stone at 14.1 million regardless of any outside factors.

[marklmw]

The QO's amount is set in stone at 14.1 million regardless of any outside factors.

 

This was reported: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24166267/red-sox-plan-to-make-qualifying-offers-to-napoli-drew

[User Name]

I actually wouldn't be surprised if the Sox made QO's to all four of Drew, Ellsbury, Napoli and Salty.

[marklmw]

I actually wouldn't be surprised if the Sox made QO's to all four of Drew, Ellsbury, Napoli and Salty.

 

Ellsbury will not accept the QO but if the other 3 do that would be +16M to payroll. 9.5M for Salty alone. I have a feeling that they will not make the offer to Salty as he may very well accept it.

[User Name]

Someone will overpay for Salty as soon as McCann signs. You can bet money on that.

[marklmw]

Someone will overpay for Salty as soon as McCann signs. You can bet money on that.

Overpaying is one thing .... overpaying and given up a first or second round draft pick is another story.

[sk7326]

Overpaying is one thing .... overpaying and given up a first or second round draft pick is another story.

 

I suspect if Salty is getting a QO, that means he and the Sox are at least in the ballpark for a multi-year agreement.

[marklmw]

I suspect if Salty is getting a QO, that means he and the Sox are at least in the ballpark for a multi-year agreement.

Do not be so sure sk .... Salty earned 4.5M this season. 14.1M is more than 3 x's what he made this year. This is life changing money for most people.

[sk7326]

Do not be so sure sk .... Salty earned 4.5M this season. 14.1M is more than 3 x's what he made this year. This is life changing money for most people.

 

It is ... BUT, the size of a QO has been known most of the season (just project up from the 2013 amount - we were even kicking around 14 million on this board as an estimate). If the Sox did not think they could sign him, they could source the catcher position for a LOT less money. Given the extremely inflated market, the draft pick probably would not dissuade somebody from taking him on - there is just a lot of money chasing a relatively small amount of quality.

[marklmw]

It is ... BUT, the size of a QO has been known most of the season (just project up from the 2013 amount - we were even kicking around 14 million on this board as an estimate). If the Sox did not think they could sign him, they could source the catcher position for a LOT less money. Given the extremely inflated market, the draft pick probably would not dissuade somebody from taking him on - there is just a lot of money chasing a relatively small amount of quality.

I hope that you are right ... Henry Owens is a compensation pick and he might make it to Boston next season.