Will Middlebrooks

[mvp 78]

FWIW, a poster on the Globe forum has been drawing comparisons between WMB and Mark Reynolds. At first that sounds a little outrageous, but the more you look at it, it's not that far-fetched. The main differences - Reynolds strikes out more, but also walks a lot more. He's more of a TTO hitter I guess. But in terms of OPS, streakiness and productivity, the comparison might be valid. Time will tell.

 

WMB has a much better glove.

[Bellhorn04]

WMB has a much better glove.

 

Agreed. This was strictly an offensive comparison.

[Dojji]

jung, did you seriously just say that "Ortiz is a free swinger" and later said "he knows what he's looking for, and rarely deviates from his plan"? Do you not see the inconsistencies in your thought process? And you're still beating this WMB topic to death based on the idea that you have that the Red Sox are messing with his approach, which is conjecture at its best, and outright fabrication at its worst.

 

Some people just seem to struggle with the concept that someone can be aggressive at the plate without swinging at everything. this usually seems to come up in situations where a player with all the tools in the world is struggling and the team is simultaneously going out of its way to encourage that player to develop some offensive discipline. The underlying cultural assumption that a more selective hitter isn't trying as hard to help his team win at the dish as a free-swinger doesn't help.

Edited September 27, 2013 by Dojji

[marklmw]

Some people just seem to struggle with the concept that someone can be aggressive at the plate without swinging at everything. this usually seems to come up in situations where a player with all the tools in the world is struggling and the team is simultaneously going out of its way to encourage that player to develop some offensive discipline. The underlying cultural assumption that a more selective hitter isn't trying as hard to help his team win at the dish as a free-swinger doesn't help.

 

There is a saying in the Dominican Republic ... you swing your way off the island you don't walk off the island.

[mvp 78]

There is a saying in the Dominican Republic ... you swing your way off the island you don't walk off the island.

 

UN? swings a big stick I've heard

[Bellhorn04]

So let's say Middlebrooks does turn out to be a better-fielding Mark Reynolds. It's really not so bad, a guy like that can be a strong asset. Right now having a guy like this hitting at the bottom of the order is like having a secret nuke.

[User Name]

UN? swings a big stick I've heard

 

He's right though. And i mentioned it in another post talking about how Dominicans that go to school in the US tend to have much better plate discipline (Pujols, Pena). It's a stupid idea though, and it's being left behind by some of the big time trainers here. The tide is shifting.

[a700hitter]

So let's say Middlebrooks does turn out to be a better-fielding Mark Reynolds. It's really not so bad, a guy like that can be a strong asset. Right now having a guy like this hitting at the bottom of the order is like having a secret nuke.

A secret nuke. I like that.

[BornToRun]

A secret nuke. I like that.

Just keep it away from the North Koreans.

[User Name]

That's not funny.

[Dojji]

So let's say Middlebrooks does turn out to be a better-fielding Mark Reynolds. It's really not so bad, a guy like that can be a strong asset. Right now having a guy like this hitting at the bottom of the order is like having a secret nuke.

 

 

The problem is at what point is the value of the toolsy power completely undermined by the lack of discipline. Mike Moustakas is a pretty good current example of a player with the same kind of natural power tool, but is so far gone on the discipline side that he can't get anything useful from it.

 

I could stand mark Reynolds. I could even stand Juan Uribe, another well-traveled example of the type that manages to stay in the big leagues due to the ability to defend well and occasionally run into one. But if all we get out of Middlebrooks is Mike Moustakas, I can't think of anyone on this forum who wouldn't have a problem with that.

[User Name]

Juan Uribe, him of the career .298 OBP?

 

You just managed to make a completely incorrect point comparing Moustakas who is a by and by free swinger (3.85 P/PA) to WMB, who has decent plate discipline (4.18 P/PA, right above league average) but has problems with a specific pitch in a specific part of the strike zone. WMB also showed significant improvement after coming back from the minors. You can't base an analysis of what WMB will be, or is, based on a 300 PA sample. That is ridiculous. If it was one of your s***** binky players you'd be clamoring for patience, but since it's a guy with actual talent, well then, f*** him.

 

Then right after that you manage to contradict your own point by saying you could "stand" two guys who are just as bad at getting on base, but either feature a worse or similar glove, and less offensive upside. Are you serious with this?

 

Please stop.

[Orange Juiced]

Middlebrooks has terrific power. Here are his career per-162 game stats (thanks, b-ref):

 

162 g, 588 ab, 73 r, 151 h, 31 2b, 0 3b, 31 hr, 100 rbi, .257/.298/.469/.767, 105 ops+

 

That's absolutely a guy that you can put at the bottom of the order, live with the low OBP because you get a lot of punch. And he costs peanuts. Not like you're spending $12 million for that guy. He's been worth 1.5 WAR over that time frame. Each WAR is worth about $5 million, so that means that, for essentially one full season of production, he's been worth about $7.5 million. He makes league minimum. That's terrific value, and it enables you to spend money elsewhere.

 

Plus, there's always the chance he improves his OBP. If he got his OBP up to .325 or .340, he'd be worth a TON with that power.

[Thunder]

Middlebrooks has terrific power. Here are his career per-162 game stats (thanks, b-ref):

 

162 g, 588 ab, 73 r, 151 h, 31 2b, 0 3b, 31 hr, 100 rbi, .257/.298/.469/.767, 105 ops+

 

That's absolutely a guy that you can put at the bottom of the order, live with the low OBP because you get a lot of punch. And he costs peanuts. Not like you're spending $12 million for that guy. He's been worth 1.5 WAR over that time frame. Each WAR is worth about $5 million, so that means that, for essentially one full season of production, he's been worth about $7.5 million. He makes league minimum. That's terrific value, and it enables you to spend money elsewhere.

 

Plus, there's always the chance he improves his OBP. If he got his OBP up to .325 or .340, he'd be worth a TON with that power.

 

I still think Will is part of our future. His numbers have been impressive, because you forget what he did last year until getting hurt. He's been pretty good on defense too. Xander is the future at SS for now.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Middlebrooks has terrific power. Here are his career per-162 game stats (thanks, b-ref):

 

162 g, 588 ab, 73 r, 151 h, 31 2b, 0 3b, 31 hr, 100 rbi, .257/.298/.469/.767, 105 ops+

 

That's absolutely a guy that you can put at the bottom of the order, live with the low OBP because you get a lot of punch. And he costs peanuts. Not like you're spending $12 million for that guy. He's been worth 1.5 WAR over that time frame. Each WAR is worth about $5 million, so that means that, for essentially one full season of production, he's been worth about $7.5 million. He makes league minimum. That's terrific value, and it enables you to spend money elsewhere.

 

Plus, there's always the chance he improves his OBP. If he got his OBP up to .325 or .340, he'd be worth a TON with that power.

 

Considering his BB% has almost doubled since returning from Pawtucket, I think it's reasonable to expect a .330 OBP from him going forward.

 

He is going to be a very good 3B/#6 hitter for years to come

[a700hitter]

Considering his BB% has almost doubled since returning from Pawtucket, I think it's reasonable to expect a .330 OBP from him going forward.

 

He is going to be a very good 3B/#6 hitter for years to come

I don't think it isunreasonable either, buteven if his obp is 20 pts lowers let's say .310, he still will have value because he has premium power. Someone will want that kind of punch.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's a very streaky player. When on, he is a monster. When off, he is a K machine that doesn't walk. Now that Iglesias is gone, though, you kinda have to ride with him and hope he turns into a Mike Lowell kind of player

[jung]

Well as I said earlier, giving up on WMB at this point nor anywhere near this point could turn out to be a monstrous mistake by the Sox if they went down that road, on par with Bagwell.

 

As for comparisons to Reynolds, the difference is in the walks and K's. Reynolds is a freer swinger than WMB but has a better idea of what is being thrown. So, he both strikes out more (freer swinger) and walks more (better pitch recognition). I would take WMB over Reynolds in a heartbeat and I would not give up on WMB whereas I could be convinced to give up on Reynolds. I don't think you easily stop a guy like Reynolds from swinging out of his shoelaces. However I am not at all convinced that WMB's pitch recognition will not improve. Once it does, it sends him on his way to anything from a very solid ML hitting career to an outstanding ML hitting career.....barring injury. Depends on what WMB decides to do once he has better pitch recognition.

[User Name]

jung, is Adam Dunn a free swinger? Because he barely takes the bat off his shoulder yet he strikes out a metric ton. Correlation =/= causation.

[Behindenemylines]

Middlebrooks has terrific power. Here are his career per-162 game stats (thanks, b-ref):

 

162 g, 588 ab, 73 r, 151 h, 31 2b, 0 3b, 31 hr, 100 rbi, .257/.298/.469/.767, 105 ops+

 

That's absolutely a guy that you can put at the bottom of the order, live with the low OBP because you get a lot of punch. And he costs peanuts. Not like you're spending $12 million for that guy. He's been worth 1.5 WAR over that time frame. Each WAR is worth about $5 million, so that means that, for essentially one full season of production, he's been worth about $7.5 million. He makes league minimum. That's terrific value, and it enables you to spend money elsewhere.

 

Plus, there's always the chance he improves his OBP. If he got his OBP up to .325 or .340, he'd be worth a TON with that power.

 

I think his OBP will improve. Being stuck at the bottom of a good offensive team means he comes up a lot with runners on base and thus will see better pitches to hit. Also, being around good hitters all the time he has to pick up things that will improve his approach at the plate. Granted he is a streaky hitter now, but with his power at the bottom of the lineup as a threat every time he comes up I can live with it.

[SoxSport]

Way too early to be pigeon-holing Middlebrooks.

[sk7326]

The problem is at what point is the value of the toolsy power completely undermined by the lack of discipline. Mike Moustakas is a pretty good current example of a player with the same kind of natural power tool, but is so far gone on the discipline side that he can't get anything useful from it.

 

I could stand mark Reynolds. I could even stand Juan Uribe, another well-traveled example of the type that manages to stay in the big leagues due to the ability to defend well and occasionally run into one. But if all we get out of Middlebrooks is Mike Moustakas, I can't think of anyone on this forum who wouldn't have a problem with that.

 

The right example for what you are saying (and Middlebrooks tracks VERY nicely here) is Josh Reddick. He could not ever hold a job in Boston (despite many chances) because his plate discipline and on base skills were dreadful. Since he has gone to Oakland, he is STILL a poor on base guy. However, his .305 OBP last year was enough to be able to get to his serious power, and combined with his defense made a good outfielder.

 

The key is whether Middlebrooks can be good enough with the on-base to be sufficient for his other virtues (power, athleticism) to shine through. I mean we deal with this bargain all the time: Can Papi hit well enough to compensate for him having zero other value (obviously yes), can Iglesias hit well enough to be able to play his glove (probably) - and the Boegarts projection is due largely on whether he can manage to play a B-/C+ level of shortstop or not. Hell the Yankees have settled for a B-/C+ level of shortstop defense since the "other stuff" is HoF level.

[Palodios]

Middlebrooks has terrific power. Here are his career per-162 game stats (thanks, b-ref):

 

162 g, 588 ab, 73 r, 151 h, 31 2b, 0 3b, 31 hr, 100 rbi, .257/.298/.469/.767, 105 ops+

 

That's absolutely a guy that you can put at the bottom of the order, live with the low OBP because you get a lot of punch. And he costs peanuts. Not like you're spending $12 million for that guy. He's been worth 1.5 WAR over that time frame. Each WAR is worth about $5 million, so that means that, for essentially one full season of production, he's been worth about $7.5 million. He makes league minimum. That's terrific value, and it enables you to spend money elsewhere.

 

Plus, there's always the chance he improves his OBP. If he got his OBP up to .325 or .340, he'd be worth a TON with that power.

 

I was thinking about Middlebrooks the other day, and was thinking of making a very similar post. I couldn't believe that despite his struggles, Middlebrooks still put up 30+ homers and 100 rbis in his first 167 games in the major leagues. Until the Red Sox got into Detroit, he was having a very solid ALDS sporting a .375 OBP, but running into this long string of righthanders in Detroit (and possibly St. Louis) will hurt his production for the rest of the playoffs.

[Station 13]

I was thinking about Middlebrooks the other day, and was thinking of making a very similar post. I couldn't believe that despite his struggles, Middlebrooks still put up 30+ homers and 100 rbis in his first 167 games in the major leagues. Until the Red Sox got into Detroit, he was having a very solid ALDS sporting a .375 OBP, but running into this long string of righthanders in Detroit (and possibly St. Louis) will hurt his production for the rest of the playoffs.

 

While he did put up those numbers, but half of it were before the league got the scouting out on him. What have happened since? He's awful.

[Palodios]

While he did put up those numbers, but half of it were before the league got the scouting out on him. What have happened since? He's awful.

 

His numbers since the All-star break... .276/.329/.476/.805 with 8 home runs in 41 games.

[Bellhorn04]

His numbers since the All-star break... .276/.329/.476/.805 with 8 home runs in 41 games.

 

If you break down his numbers this year I think you'll find two awesome hot streaks and two brutal cold streaks.

[SoxFanForsyth]

While he did put up those numbers, but half of it were before the league got the scouting out on him. What have happened since? He's awful.

 

If half his numbers were before the league got the scouting out on him, then the other half was after the league got the scouting report on him.

 

And if his first half numbers are good, and his 2nd half numbers are, by definition, identical to the first half, how are they bad?

 

Look, he scuffled a bit to start the season, yes, but as Pal pointed out, he posted an .805 OPS since being recalled.

 

He's still developing, certainly, but early signs indicate he could be a very solid power hitter out of the #6 or #7 slot.

[Station 13]

His numbers since the All-star break... .276/.329/.476/.805 with 8 home runs in 41 games.

 

He has made adjustments, but his season line: .227 .271 .425 really looks awful.

 

Hopefully he can continue to push forward.

[Palodios]

If you break down his numbers this year I think you'll find two awesome hot streaks and two brutal cold streaks.

 

True, but the second cold streak was a big improvement over his first.

[Station 13]

If half his numbers were before the league got the scouting out on him, then the other half was after the league got the scouting report on him.

 

And if his first half numbers are good, and his 2nd half numbers are, by definition, identical to the first half, how are they bad?

 

Look, he scuffled a bit to start the season, yes, but as Pal pointed out, he posted an .805 OPS since being recalled.

 

He's still developing, certainly, but early signs indicate he could be a very solid power hitter out of the #6 or #7 slot.

 

If he's consistent around .260/.310/.450 that would be awesome down 6/7th.