Can Mike Carp be the Sox full time 1B in 2014

[SoxFanForsyth]

Very compelling arguments both ways on Carp as the 2014 1B here.

[a700hitter]

if he wasn't so one-dimensional

i.e. a dick. LOL!!

[User Name]

Very compelling arguments both ways on Carp as the 2014 1B here.

 

Back to this topic after what i'm sure was a very compelling baseball comment by a700 (thank you ignore list).

 

Carp is an excellent platoon hitter/bench bat, but that's probably the position where he excels at.

 

With the possibility of bringing Napoli back, Abreu as an enticing target as well as a fairly decent FA market, at worse the Red Sox could find a platoon partner for Carp without exposing him to LHP.

 

This is made even easier by the fact that he's dirt cheap, not having had his first arb season yet.

[Dojji]

Back to this topic after what i'm sure was a very compelling baseball comment by a700 (thank you ignore list).

 

Carp is an excellent platoon hitter/bench bat, but that's probably the position where he excels at.

 

Not sure I agree with that. Lefties that murder righthanded pitching can start for a team even with the platoon weakness. As long as he continues to be as hard on righthanders as he is this year, Carp could definitely be a starter. I wouldn't polish any MVP awards in anticipation of sending them his way, but a 2-3 WAR 1Bman is something he could probably pull off.

 

What would be interesting, is if we keep Drew finagling it into a Carp/Middlebrooks platoon with Middlebrooks playing third part of the rest of the time. It should be possible, if tricky, to mix and match 4 infielders into regular at bats in 3 roles, and the opportunity to stack the lefthanded Drew and Carp, or the righthanded Bogaerts and Middlebrooks, against the matchups that most favored them would be an interesting option for the manager.

Edited September 13, 2013 by Dojji

[SoxFanForsyth]

Back to this topic after what i'm sure was a very compelling baseball comment by a700 (thank you ignore list).

 

Carp is an excellent platoon hitter/bench bat, but that's probably the position where he excels at.

 

With the possibility of bringing Napoli back, Abreu as an enticing target as well as a fairly decent FA market, at worse the Red Sox could find a platoon partner for Carp without exposing him to LHP.

 

This is made even easier by the fact that he's dirt cheap, not having had his first arb season yet.

 

I was thinking "Man what a platoon Mike Carp and Corey Hart would be". Hart absolutely murders LHP (career .896 OPS, 1.071 OPS in 2011). He's been hurt all year this year, and would likely take a 1 year deal, but only if he got guaranteed playing time, which would not work here. Bummer. That could have been monstrous.

 

On the other hand, having a guy like Carp who, like Dojji said, crushes RHP, which is who you see in about 60-65% of your at bats, really would allow this team to be a bit more aggressive on the market for Abreu, since they have a guy who can perform at a high level if Abreu needs time to develop, or struggles initially.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Not sure I agree with that. Lefties that murder righthanded pitching can start for a team even with the platoon weakness. As long as he continues to be as hard on righthanders as he is this year, Carp could definitely be a starter. I wouldn't polish any MVP awards in anticipation of sending them his way, but a 2-3 WAR 1Bman is something he could probably pull off.

 

What would be interesting, is if we keep Drew finagling it into a Carp/Middlebrooks platoon with Middlebrooks playing third part of the rest of the time. It should be possible, if tricky, to mix and match 4 infielders into regular at bats in 3 roles, and the opportunity to stack the lefthanded Drew and Carp, or the righthanded Bogaerts and Middlebrooks, against the matchups that most favored them would be an interesting option for the manager.

 

Bogaerts is a 155 game SS. He's not a guy you rotate around. You stick him at SS and you watch him stockpile silver sluggers and MVPs.

[User Name]

If Abreu needs time to develop, then the Red Sox should not make a monster investment in him.

 

As for Carp, his performance this year against RHP is probably not something he could replicate playing every day. Being a bench bat is not the same thing as starting on a regular basis. That's probably why Farrell has been so careful about over-exposing him.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If Abreu needs time to develop, then the Red Sox should not make a monster investment in him.

 

As for Carp, his performance this year against RHP is probably not something he could replicate playing every day. Being a bench bat is not the same thing as starting on a regular basis. That's probably why Farrell has been so careful about over-exposing him.

 

I'm not saying they should invest in him if they know going in that he's going to need time to develop. I'm saying if they acquire him thinking he can start, and it turns out that he needs a bit of time to get going, they've got a guy in Carp who can keep them afloat until Abreu is ready.

 

I agree, Carp probably can't do this on a regular basis (see: BABIP of .410), but certainly he can be a .265/.340/.460 hitter with 20 HR. That's plenty for an PH/insurance plan, which I think we agree is pretty much what you can expect him to be. A really nice bat off the bench and the first up to play 1B in a injury or fatigue situation.

[Dojji]

You realize that that line is as good or better than a fair number of teams get from their starting 1B? I'd say that a .800 OPS from your 1B is the standard, but that there are definitely teams out there that don't meet that standard (including, laughably enough, the Angels this year)

[marklmw]

You realize that that line is as good or better than a fair number of teams get from their starting 1B? I'd say that a .800 OPS from your 1B is the standard, but that there are definitely teams out there that don't meet that standard (including, laughably enough, the Angels this year)

 

Of the 25 1b listed on the ESPN Stats Page Adrian Gonzalez sits at number 13 with an OPS of .800 on the nose. Pujols is at .767 but that is not typical as he has been injured. Abreu has a chance to be near the top of this list if the projections hold true to form. A big 'If' for sure but he seems to be as sure a MLB prospect as ever there was one. It will be a very interesting off season. I feel pretty confident that Ben will find a way to get Abreu and sign Ellsbury and Salty .... a triple play. Bogaerts is my first choice to start at short next year.

[Bellhorn04]

Of the 25 1b listed on the ESPN Stats Page Adrian Gonzalez sits at number 13 with an OPS of .800 on the nose. Pujols is at .767 but that is not typical as he has been injured. Abreu has a chance to be near the top of this list if the projections hold true to form. A big 'If' for sure but he seems to be as sure a MLB prospect as ever there was one. It will be a very interesting off season. I feel pretty confident that Ben will find a way to get Abreu and sign Ellsbury and Salty .... a triple play. Bogaerts is my first choice to start at short next year.

 

I think you have to forget about Ellsbury. John Henry even came out earlier this year and said he couldn't see them re-signing him. If that isn't a bad sign I don't know what is.

[User Name]

The guy's boner for Ellsbury is just baffling.

[marklmw]

The guy's boner for Ellsbury is just baffling.

 

Yeah .... I suppose you are right. I have been following the Sox since I was 8 ... so 45 years. Perhaps I just place too much value on having a top lead off man. Ellsbury also takes care of himself ... he will still be go for 30 - 40 bags for the next 5 years.

[Behindenemylines]

Back to this topic after what i'm sure was a very compelling baseball comment by a700 (thank you ignore list).

 

Carp is an excellent platoon hitter/bench bat, but that's probably the position where he excels at.

 

With the possibility of bringing Napoli back, Abreu as an enticing target as well as a fairly decent FA market, at worse the Red Sox could find a platoon partner for Carp without exposing him to LHP.

 

This is made even easier by the fact that he's dirt cheap, not having had his first arb season yet.

 

With the year Nap is having against the $panks and the great start to September it is looking more and more like the Sox might want him back. Now that he has proven that he can hold up it wouldn't be wrong to give him the two years that was in the original contract offer. He says he wants to stay so if that is the case it will work out. As far as Carp goes I would bring him back in the same roll. Play some first to keep Nap fresh, play some left field, and pitch hit.

[SoxSport]

They've been successful using their depth with platooning. I think they recognize that, and won't change next year.

There is a question about 3B and SS, and about Bradley in the OF. Middlebrooks isn't out of the woods yet. He's 0 for about the last 18 after a hot run.

[Dojji]

With Bogaerts and Cecchini we have the depth potentially to handle things if WMB can't become more consistent. That said, I wouldn't mind investing in some kind of veteran depth at third base, with the understanding that we're mostly looking for a bench type. Someone like Maicer Izturis would be a good pickup there possibly, since while he's not the best hitter ever and is coming off a down year he's a heck of a utility type, he could fill a backup SS role/insurance for Bogaerts, as well as add to the mix at 3B.

[Behindenemylines]

With Bogaerts and Cecchini we have the depth potentially to handle things if WMB can't become more consistent. That said, I wouldn't mind investing in some kind of veteran depth at third base, with the understanding that we're mostly looking for a bench type. Someone like Maicer Izturis would be a good pickup there possibly, since while he's not the best hitter ever and is coming off a down year he's a heck of a utility type, he could fill a backup SS role/insurance for Bogaerts, as well as add to the mix at 3B.

 

WMB should be looking over his shoulder because I think Cecchini has a solid bat. He doesn't have the power of WMB, but will probably hit for a higher average. I've notice over the last few days that WMB has falling behind in the count 0-2 a lot. He then widens his strike zone and pitchers are getting him out with pitches that are not strikes. He was doing well when he was taking the walks when pitchers weren't throwing strikes.

[a700hitter]

With WMB's power, he is good trade bait.

[dupree]

WMB will be the 3B next year. If the Sox were in on moving him and had no confidence in him he woulda been moved at the deadline for KRod. He is in a slump now and everyone is back on the bus of getting rid of him but everyone was praising him for coming back up and being on fire. He had to come back to Earth at some point. He has been hitting the ball its just been rockets right at people not as many swinging Ks as before he went down. The kid has a lot of upside and i dont see the FO moving him.

[a700hitter]

WMB will be the 3B next year. If the Sox were in on moving him and had no confidence in him he woulda been moved at the deadline for KRod. He is in a slump now and everyone is back on the bus of getting rid of him but everyone was praising him for coming back up and being on fire. He had to come back to Earth at some point. He has been hitting the ball its just been rockets right at people not as many swinging Ks as before he went down. The kid has a lot of upside and i dont see the FO moving him.

He's worth a lot more than KRod. I think he will be the 3B in 2014, but down the road better talents may squeeze him out.

[marklmw]

WMB should be looking over his shoulder because I think Cecchini has a solid bat. He doesn't have the power of WMB, but will probably hit for a higher average. I've notice over the last few days that WMB has falling behind in the count 0-2 a lot. He then widens his strike zone and pitchers are getting him out with pitches that are not strikes. He was doing well when he was taking the walks when pitchers weren't throwing strikes.

 

I agree with you with respect to Middlebrooks but as a fan it will be great to see him figure things out. He is becoming to predicable at the plate and taking to many first strikes ... it would serve him well to come out swinging every now and again. At the end of the season his OBP and OPS numbers will be what they be and right now they are not impressive enough to be the starting 3rd baseman for the Boston Red Sox. Then again if he lights it up in the post season a lot can be overlooked.

[sk7326]

Middlebrooks is going to give you these waves. He is not a patient hitter, so all of his offensive punch will be in the hits (or lack thereof). But clearly the power is there, and since his demotion, his mechanics have been simpler. Swing is a more compact, lower half is not as busy.

 

We'll have to live with the fluctuations at the plate, but there is no reason he can't be an above average defensive 3B who gives power and below average sort of On Base. That is a solid starter.

[marklmw]

Middlebrooks is going to give you these waves. He is not a patient hitter, so all of his offensive punch will be in the hits (or lack thereof). But clearly the power is there, and since his demotion, his mechanics have been simpler. Swing is a more compact, lower half is not as busy.

 

We'll have to live with the fluctuations at the plate, but there is no reason he can't be an above average defensive 3B who gives power and below average sort of On Base. That is a solid starter.

 

No doubt that Middlebrooks has flashed signs of baseball excellence and as he matures as a hitter he will more than likely figure things out so that he stops over-thinking things ... he has all the tools to become a great player.

[Dojji]

Middlebrooks is going to give you these waves. He is not a patient hitter, so all of his offensive punch will be in the hits (or lack thereof). But clearly the power is there, and since his demotion, his mechanics have been simpler. Swing is a more compact, lower half is not as busy.

 

We'll have to live with the fluctuations at the plate, but there is no reason he can't be an above average defensive 3B who gives power and below average sort of On Base. That is a solid starter.

 

Solid on base ability is nonoptional for this team and the way its front office thinks the game. They made that clear, among other times, when they traded Iglesias, when they demoted Middlebrooks in the first place, and back in the day when they went through a rotation of shortstops-of-the-year rather than stick with Alex Gonzalez

 

If Middlebrooks can't improve his consistency (which is what OBP really measures, the odds that a guy does something useful when he takes an at bat) then he'll go when Cecchini is ready. Cecchini looks a little Boggsian, consistency is his forte as a prospect, the team loves that kind of player and they will seize an opportunity to replace an all-talent-limited-results guy with the more consistent version. It's one of the reasons I always thought Nava would keep getting chances.

[sk7326]

Solid on base ability is nonoptional for this team and the way its front office thinks the game. They made that clear, among other times, when they traded Iglesias, when they demoted Middlebrooks in the first place, and back in the day when they went through a rotation of shortstops-of-the-year rather than stick with Alex Gonzalez

 

If Middlebrooks can't improve his consistency (which is what OBP really measures, the odds that a guy does something useful when he takes an at bat) then he'll go when Cecchini is ready. Cecchini looks a little Boggsian, consistency is his forte as a prospect, the team loves that kind of player and they will seize an opportunity to replace an all-talent-limited-results guy with the more consistent version. It's one of the reasons I always thought Nava would keep getting chances.

 

Cecchini certainly has a good longterm prognosis - Middlebrooks is definitely more the high end ath-a-lete who is figuring out the baseball stuff. We know that with Middlebrooks the path to a solid OBP (and .320-.330 is solid for instance without being amazing) is via good contact rates and whatnot. It is clear how the FO thinks the game - it is also the same FO which promoted this player, with all of the known information on him to starting 3B. So they do also value (and have with draft after draft) athletic ability ... beer leaguers aren't sufficient either. The question with Middlebrooks is whether he can get on base enough to let the other stuff shine through. Looking at his line in September, .289/.319/.578 will be sufficient. Cecchini might have more upside - I am not going to argue that - but Middlebrooks can absolutely be an above average third baseman. The last two months of him certainly is.

[User Name]

Cecchini does not have a higher upside than WMB. On an analysis where you project both of them maximizing both their offensive and defensive abilities, WMB takes the cake by a lot. What Cecchini has is a much higher floor than WMB, but with a lower ceiling. Middlebrooks rates 65-70 on power in a lot of scouting reports. That is exceptional.

[marklmw]

Cecchini does not have a higher upside than WMB. On an analysis where you project both of them maximizing both their offensive and defensive abilities, WMB takes the cake by a lot. What Cecchini has is a much higher floor than WMB, but with a lower ceiling. Middlebrooks rates 65-70 on power in a lot of scouting reports. That is exceptional.

 

I agree with that. I think Middlebrooks has potential to be a consistent 30 HR kind of guy and in the post steroids age that is pretty good.

[sk7326]

Cecchini does not have a higher upside than WMB. On an analysis where you project both of them maximizing both their offensive and defensive abilities, WMB takes the cake by a lot. What Cecchini has is a much higher floor than WMB, but with a lower ceiling. Middlebrooks rates 65-70 on power in a lot of scouting reports. That is exceptional.

 

I said "might" - I have not spent much time thinking of it ... but Middlebrooks' ceiling is considerable. If he can clean up enough that his on-base is not a real drag (see Soriano, Alfonso for what a "real drag" is) he can be very good.

[User Name]

The problem is that even "might" is stretching it. The guy has one elite tool, and is above average in all of the others except speed. The only thing holding him back is plate discipline, since his contact rates are amazing, especially when you consider how often he swings at pitches way out of the zone.

[seabeachfred]

Solid on base ability is nonoptional for this team and the way its front office thinks the game. They made that clear, among other times, when they traded Iglesias, when they demoted Middlebrooks in the first place, and back in the day when they went through a rotation of shortstops-of-the-year rather than stick with Alex Gonzalez

 

If Middlebrooks can't improve his consistency (which is what OBP really measures, the odds that a guy does something useful when he takes an at bat) then he'll go when Cecchini is ready. Cecchini looks a little Boggsian, consistency is his forte as a prospect, the team loves that kind of player and they will seize an opportunity to replace an all-talent-limited-results guy with the more consistent version. It's one of the reasons I always thought Nava would keep getting chances.

 

Been looking for you on the board all day Dojji. You deserve a lot of kudos for your take on Nava. You hit a home run with that one. Good show!!!!!!