Can Mike Carp be the Sox full time 1B in 2014

[User Name]

You can guarantee that based on what? That's just an empty comment trying to push your Ellsbury agenda. In the end, the decision is not up to any of us either way.

[marklmw]

You can guarantee that based on what? That's just an empty comment trying to push your Ellsbury agenda. In the end, the decision is not up to any of us either way.

 

Joe Namath could not guarantee a super bowl win but he did ... but you are right it is not up to anyone of us. I will defer to the Sox Front Office.

 

My wish list for Free Agents is:

Ellsbury (because of my blind man crush and the fact that he is the best lead of hitter the Sox have had in the modern era)

Salty ( because I think we can sign him at a good price and the right number of years - 3)

Jose Dariel Abreu (because I am a bit of a river boat gambler)

Masahiro Tanaka (because you can never have enough quality pitching)

Drew (because we cannot count on Middlebrooks and or Bogaerts at this time)

Edited September 23, 2013 by marklmw

[mvp 78]

s***, I'd have Boggs hit 1st over Ells. Ells couldn't get a .450 OBP if he was playing in AAA.

[User Name]

Lemme know when he gets his OBP up to .380. He didn't even hit that mark in his banner 2011 (which the fanboys still point to like it's just Jacoby being Jacoby although we all know it was a fluke) even with blessings from the BABIP and LD% gods.

[sk7326]

To be fair, the league average OBP was .320 or so. Ellsbury's .357 ish sort of OBP is certainly good.

 

To use his 2011 as any sort of barometer for the next 5 years is stupid clearly. That said, if he could repeat his 2013 ... which is basically a good Tim Raines season with better defense (not a GREAT Tim Raines season - if you want criminally undervalued HoF candidate) ... for 5 years, he'd certainly be worth the price he is wishing for. The odds of that actually happening are very very low.

[User Name]

To be fair, the league average OBP was .320 or so. Ellsbury's .357 ish sort of OBP is certainly good.

 

To use his 2011 as any sort of barometer for the next 5 years is stupid clearly. That said, if he could repeat his 2013 ... which is basically a good Tim Raines season with better defense (not a GREAT Tim Raines season - if you want criminally undervalued HoF candidate) ... for 5 years, he'd certainly be worth the price he is wishing for. The odds of that actually happening are very very low.

 

Which is exactly the problem. Handing out long contracts with a "very very low chance" of the player maintaining expected production into at least the final two years of the contract is a recipe for disaster. It's exactly the type of contract the Red Sox need to avoid, not hand out.

[marklmw]

Lemme know when he gets his OBP up to .380. He didn't even hit that mark in his banner 2011 (which the fanboys still point to like it's just Jacoby being Jacoby although we all know it was a fluke) even with blessings from the BABIP and LD% gods.

 

I'll take Ellsbury's 2011 season over any season that Boggs had with or without Boston.

[rjortiz]

I could be convinced about Ellsbury, provided someone could prove that his short-term value was worth the inevitable decline.

[sk7326]

I'll take Ellsbury's 2011 season over any season that Boggs had with or without Boston.

 

As well you should - he was the position player MVP of the league that year, easily. But we're talking future production here.

[sk7326]

I'll take Ellsbury's 2011 season over any season that Boggs had with or without Boston.

 

As well you should - he was the position player MVP of the league that year, easily. But we're talking future production here.

[marklmw]

Which is exactly the problem. Handing out long contracts with a "very very low chance" of the player maintaining expected production into at least the final two years of the contract is a recipe for disaster. It's exactly the type of contract the Red Sox need to avoid, not hand out.

 

Ellsbury can do better than his 2013 numbers. Is 5 years a long term contract. Again, you have no problem paying Pedroia until he is 38. Which is it with you?

[sk7326]

Ellsbury can do better than his 2013 numbers. Is 5 years a long term contract. Again, you have no problem paying Pedroia until he is 38. Which is it with you?

 

They are paying Pedroia a lot less ... both in terms of now and what that money looks like when he is 38. And 2B is an easier position to wallpaper over than a below average CF. And Ellsbury has beaten his 2013 season exactly one time in terms of production, and two times in terms of plate appearances.

[marklmw]

As well you should - he was the position player MVP of the league that year, easily. But we're talking future production here.

Ellsbury is 30 and keeps in shape. Has worked hard each time he was injured. The Beltre injury was brutal as he was not wearing his pads. I will take Ellsbury's 2011 season over any Red Sox Season in the past 15 years. What is Ellsbury was in the 3 spot with Ortiz batting behind him all season ... would not his numbers be better? batting lead-off is not easy.

I am a fan of Ellsbury there is no denying this fact ... but rightfully so. I will not be surprised if Ellsbury averaged 20 HR's and 35 SB's with a .290 Average and a .350 OBP over the next 5 years. Mark it down.

[sk7326]

Ellsbury is 30 and keeps in shape. Has worked hard each time he was injured. The Beltre injury was brutal as he was not wearing his pads. I will take Ellsbury's 2011 season over any Red Sox Season in the past 15 years. What is Ellsbury was in the 3 spot with Ortiz batting behind him all season ... would not his numbers be better? batting lead-off is not easy.

I am a fan of Ellsbury there is no denying this fact ... but rightfully so. I will not be surprised if Ellsbury averaged 20 HR's and 35 SB's with a .290 Average and a .350 OBP over the next 5 years. Mark it down.

 

You bat leadoff one time a game. And lineup protection does not have much empirical oomph behind it - if he were a "20 HR guy" he'd have been one this season. I am being realistic - clone his 2013 for five years, at the plate and in the field ... you've sold me. But if he has to move to LF - then he basically has to turn into 2011 Ellsbury to be pumping out the same output 2013 Ellsbury the CF is producing. It's not a very good bet for a guy going into typical decline years.

[rjortiz]

Ellsbury can do better than his 2013 numbers. Is 5 years a long term contract. Again, you have no problem paying Pedroia until he is 38. Which is it with you?

 

Most of Ellsbury's value lies in his legs, whereas Pedoria is probably the second best offensive 2B in the game. He's also going to get less than Ellsbury, and is going to make $100 million less than Cano. Lots of value in his contract. I also feel safer investing in the player with a stronger bat to sustain that production over a speedster.

 

Ellsbury is 30 and keeps in shape. Has worked hard each time he was injured. The Beltre injury was brutal as he was not wearing his pads. I will take Ellsbury's 2011 season over any Red Sox Season in the past 15 years. What is Ellsbury was in the 3 spot with Ortiz batting behind him all season ... would not his numbers be better? batting lead-off is not easy.

I am a fan of Ellsbury there is no denying this fact ... but rightfully so. I will not be surprised if Ellsbury averaged 20 HR's and 35 SB's with a .290 Average and a .350 OBP over the next 5 years. Mark it down.

 

Doesn't he have exactly one year of double-digit HR's? You're betting that he's going to double his power numbers and sustain his baserunning as he ages. I could buy this over the next two years, but other players with his skill set mostly decline as the approach their middle 30's.

[marklmw]

They are paying Pedroia a lot less ... both in terms of now and what that money looks like when he is 38. And 2B is an easier position to wallpaper over than a below average CF. And Ellsbury has beaten his 2013 season exactly one time in terms of production, and two times in terms of plate appearances.

 

Come on SK ... Ellsbury's first full season was in 2008 at the age of 24 ... he had an OPS of .730 with 50 SB's leading off. In 2009 age 25 an OPS of .770 with 70 Bags ... 2010 he was out with injuries. In 2011 a .928 OPS 52 SB's 32 HR's 119 Runs 105 RBI's all from the lead off spot.

In 2012 he was mostly injured ... wrist this time. In 2013 .779 OPS (about .021 short of Adrian Gonzalez batting 3rd for LA) 52 SB's

So far 4 years healthy and 2 years not. Take the averages of his 4 good years and hope that he has learned how to stay healthy. He is 30 ... not 34. A 5 year deal is not going crazy.

[rjortiz]

They'll be paying him at least $20 million when he's 34, 35, and 36. That's the cause for concern. We're doubtful he'll be worth that when he is that old. Wedon't want to get stuck with an albatross.

[marklmw]

Most of Ellsbury's value lies in his legs, whereas Pedoria is probably the second best offensive 2B in the game. He's also going to get less than Ellsbury, and is going to make $100 million less than Cano. Lots of value in his contract. I also feel safer investing in the player with a stronger bat to sustain that production over a speedster.

 

 

 

Doesn't he have exactly one year of double-digit HR's? You're betting that he's going to double his power numbers and sustain his baserunning as he ages. I could buy this over the next two years, but other players with his skill set mostly decline as the approach their middle 30's.

 

My guess is that Ellsbury will add power in the next 5 years. He really never got going this season with respect to his HR stroke. It looked like he had it back for a brief time after the all Star break but it did not stick. I think 35 bags is something he can do in his sleep. Being able to steal bases is not all speed and Ellsbury knows how to read the pitcher. I think 3 years full time in Center and 2 years in left with ability to play center.

[mvp 78]

I'll take Ellsbury's 2011 season over any season that Boggs had with or without Boston.

 

2011 Ells: 146 OPS+

 

Boggs had 5 years higher than that. His 87 season is better than Ells' 2011.

[User Name]

To marklmw, the logic behind comparing two vastly different players with vastly different skillsets who play vastly different positions (where one will probably have to leave his before the end of his proposed contract diminishing his value) is sound. We get it, you like Ellsbury, but at least use sound logic when establishing your argument.

 

Ellsbury and Pedroia are not comparable. Pedroia is more likely to be productive with his skillset into his mid-late 30's than Ellsbury, and plays a less-demanding position that has very little offensive depth.

 

If you wanna compare Ellsbury to someone, compare him to Michael Bourn, look at how much he's making, and then establish a comparable contract. Ellsbury is better than Bourn, but not enough to warrant 2/3 more years and 60+ million dollars more. It's a stupid use of resources. If Ellsbury's willing to sign for market value (around 5/82.5) considering the tail end of the contract, his multiple injuries, and likelihood of leaving the position, then sweet, welcome back. Otherwise, hit the road Jack. No need for the Sox to load themselves up with s***** contracts again.

[User Name]

2011 Ells: 146 OPS+

 

Boggs had 5 years higher than that. His 87 season is better than Ells' 2011.

 

And he wonders why we can't quite take him seriously.

[sk7326]

2011 Ells: 146 OPS+

 

Boggs had 5 years higher than that. His 87 season is better than Ells' 2011.

 

Well, Ells has a good argument here since the difference in positions matter quite a bit. But it's that very positional factor that really shoots a hole in the "future value" case.

[marklmw]

And he wonders why we can't quite take him seriously.

 

Who is WE? You and I disagree on Ellsbury ... I hope you are on here next season so I can stick it in your ear you arrogant SOB.

[marklmw]

And he wonders why we can't quite take him seriously.

I am beginning to dislike you as much as I dislike Nixon

[SoxFanForsyth]

I am beginning to dislike you as much as I dislike Nixon

 

I thought you loved Nixon, no??

 

Man, I really freakin love Nixon

[marklmw]

2011 Ells: 146 OPS+

 

Boggs had 5 years higher than that. His 87 season is better than Ells' 2011.

 

Sorry MVP but in 87 Boggs stole 1 base and was caught stealing 3 times. I can't say if Boggs was the leadoff hitter but I do know that he did not play center field. So I respectfully disagree with you. Ellsburys 2011 season was better.

[User Name]

I thought you loved Nixon, no??

 

LOL well done.

[User Name]

I know i know, the truth is painful mark, but you'll get over it. Maybe Ellsbury likes Boston enough to sign for market value and you continue to have masturbation material for the next 5-6 years. We'll see.

[marklmw]

I thought you loved Nixon, no??

Trot Nixon is the only Nixon I am fond of.

[marklmw]

I know i know, the truth is painful mark, but you'll get over it. Maybe Ellsbury likes Boston enough to sign for market value and you continue to have masturbation material for the next 5-6 years. We'll see.

 

You know so little about baseball and you speak like a chess master on the subject. What baseball fan in his right mind does not want one of the games premier lead off hitting, base steeling, center field playing players on his team. You amaze me. You care about money ... why ... it isn't coming out of your pocket is it?