Can Mike Carp be the Sox full time 1B in 2014

[seabeachfred]

Everyone screws up occasionally. Something fans tend to need to bear in mind more than they do when rating managers and GM's. The mark of a great executive is more about limiting the damage of his mistakes and maximizing the impact of his successes, then it is about maintaining more than an illusion of infallibility.

 

Not only with us Dojii but with scouts as well, many times it's a guessing game and hit or miss can occur with even supposed top notch prospects. You hit a homer with Nava and I'm surprised there are still a few around here that stubbornly refuse to give you credit for that. Surprising because there are a couple of people here, and they know who they are, that were calling for the Red Sox to trade for Ronny Belliard early in the 2007 season due to the fact that Dustin Pedroia just didn't seem to have the wherewithal to make the grade in the Big Leagues. Thank God I wasn't one of them, but I always believed that Jed Lowrie was going to be as good as Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury, and while he has been pretty solid for the A's, hasn't quite reached the level of the other two.

 

As far as Lars Anderson was concerned, that was Theo Epstein's work all the way. There are some of us who didn't much respect his ability to judge talent and his reluctance to see that Lars was a white elephant resulted in a total waste of a chance to get something from him in the trade market. That said, it is just as easy to screw up on a prospect as it is to hit the jackpot on one.

[Dojji]

A good barometer, and the one I've been using since Lars, is if the franchise starts talking about how we shouldn't worry about a given prospect's flaws when those flaws are critical to what they are. For example -- a first baseman with limited power who survived by hitting for a high average in the minors. that wasn't ever going to be trouble down the road.

 

frankly, this is part of the reason I'm a little less than enthusiastic about replacing Ellsbury with Bradley. people seem to be trying to hard to build a narrative where Bradley will step in and everything will be fine and trying very hard to believe it. We heard that with Anderson, and everything wasn't fine.

 

The one thing that stands out to me about bradley is that he strikes out either once in 6, or once in 5, times up to the plate at every stop in the minors so far. That's not awful, but it's also not great, and while strikeouts aren't a huge concern as long as a player's getting on base, they're more of a concern when they proliferate in the minors. Issues making contact on an alleged leadoff type are problematic, look at Lorenzo Cain to see why. Cain's easily as talented as Bradley, but he strikes out so much he can't use his offensive talents to their best potential.

 

Also let's just take a second to discuss Bradley's speed, because I just don't see a lot of evidence of same. His caught stealing rates are hideous for a supposedly fast player. Either his speed is not as advertized, or he has a serious deficiency in timing. Either way, not a good thing for a player who's supposed to be replacing the 1 hitter.

[marklmw]

A good barometer, and the one I've been using since Lars, is if the franchise starts talking about how we shouldn't worry about a given prospect's flaws when those flaws are critical to what they are. For example -- a first baseman with limited power who survived by hitting for a high average in the minors. that wasn't ever going to be trouble down the road.

 

frankly, this is part of the reason I'm a little less than enthusiastic about replacing Ellsbury with Bradley. people seem to be trying to hard to build a narrative where Bradley will step in and everything will be fine and trying very hard to believe it. We heard that with Anderson, and everything wasn't fine.

 

The one thing that stands out to me about bradley is that he strikes out either once in 6, or once in 5, times up to the plate at every stop in the minors so far. That's not awful, but it's also not great, and while strikeouts aren't a huge concern as long as a player's getting on base, they're more of a concern when they proliferate in the minors. Issues making contact on an alleged leadoff type are problematic, look at Lorenzo Cain to see why. Cain's easily as talented as Bradley, but he strikes out so much he can't use his offensive talents to their best potential.

 

Also let's just take a second to discuss Bradley's speed, because I just don't see a lot of evidence of same. His caught stealing rates are hideous for a supposedly fast player. Either his speed is not as advertized, or he has a serious deficiency in timing. Either way, not a good thing for a player who's supposed to be replacing the 1 hitter.

 

I agree with you 100% but if you listen to most of the folks on this Forum you can kiss Ellsbury goodbye. I on the other hand think that Ellsbury should retire wearing a Sox uniform. He is a premium athlete and when healthy one of the best players in the game today. 100M / 6 might get it done and the Sox can easily afford it because of the players coming up through the minors.

[seabeachfred]

I agree with you 100% but if you listen to most of the folks on this Forum you can kiss Ellsbury goodbye. I on the other hand think that Ellsbury should retire wearing a Sox uniform. He is a premium athlete and when healthy one of the best players in the game today. 100M / 6 might get it done and the Sox can easily afford it because of the players coming up through the minors.

 

Mark and Dojii, put me in your camp concerning Ellsbury vs Bradley. Jackie is a hard working and likeable young ballplayer but he doesn't have the speed Ells had, strikes out too much and I am concerned about his ability to steal bases for us in the leadoff spot, and, more importantly, his ability to consistently hit Major League pitching. If I had my druthers I would want Jacoby to end his career wearing Red Sox Red and I hope sanity prevails and we resign him. However, it is out of our hands.

[User Name]

That's because Ellsbury is both overrated and unable to get through an entire season healthy. If the Sox are going to throw 100 million on a player, it better be an elite and healthy talent. Ellsbury can be number one, but he hasn't proved he can be number two.

 

We get it, marklmw likes Ellsbury, but that's no reason to waste money stupidly on him. He either signs for market value or he can GTFO.

[marklmw]

That's because Ellsbury is both overrated and unable to get through an entire season healthy. If the Sox are going to throw 100 million on a player, it better be an elite and healthy talent. Ellsbury can be number one, but he hasn't proved he can be number two.

 

We get it, marklmw likes Ellsbury, but that's no reason to waste money stupidly on him. He either signs for market value or he can GTFO.

 

100M over 6 is 16.7M per. Are you telling me that you would not resign Ellsbury for that?

[mvp 78]

I agree with you 100% but if you listen to most of the folks on this Forum you can kiss Ellsbury goodbye. I on the other hand think that Ellsbury should retire wearing a Sox uniform. He is a premium athlete and when healthy one of the best players in the game today. 100M / 6 might get it done and the Sox can easily afford it because of the players coming up through the minors.

 

Some days you want him for 6/100, others 8/150, which is it? He's going to sign for 18.5 AAV for 5-6 years at the very least.

[User Name]

100M over 6 is 16.7M per. Are you telling me that you would not resign Ellsbury for that?

 

In that case, the problem is not the money, it;'s the years. Ellsbury's value lies in his legs, so every extra year is potentially very problematic because of natural skill erosion.

 

In a perfect world, the Sox sign Ellsbury for 5/87.5, but someone is going to offer him 6/120 and regret it later.

[marklmw]

In that case, the problem is not the money, it;'s the years. Ellsbury's value lies in his legs, so every extra year is potentially very problematic because of natural skill erosion.

 

In a perfect world, the Sox sign Ellsbury for 5/87.5, but someone is going to offer him 6/120 and regret it later.

 

No one seems to be bothered paying Pedroia 14M per when he is 37 and 38. Do you really think Pedroia is going to have the same range and bat speed when he is 37 and 38? 6 years for Ellsbury takes him to age 35 to begin the season 36 at seasons end.

[marklmw]

Some days you want him for 6/100, others 8/150, which is it? He's going to sign for 18.5 AAV for 5-6 years at the very least.

 

I do not remember stating that we should give Ellsbury a 8 year deal. I might have but I do not remember saying that. As far as the 18.5 vs 16.6 AAV ... I am not so sure that he would not stay with Boston at 16.6 and I am not completely sold on the fact that the Sox would not give him 18.5 either.

[User Name]

No one seems to be bothered paying Pedroia 14M per when he is 37 and 38. Do you really think Pedroia is going to have the same range and bat speed when he is 37 and 38? 6 years for Ellsbury takes him to age 35 to begin the season 36 at seasons end.

 

Pedroia is not a good comparison. He is a better, more productive hitter. He plays a less demanding position. He is more durable. And he is more likely to maintain his overall hitting prowess and ability to get on base than Ellsbury. You keep bringing up Pedroia's contract, but their skillsets are not comparable, and Pedroia is a better player.

[Palodios]

Pedroia is not a good comparison. He is a better, more productive hitter. He plays a less demanding position. He is more durable. And he is more likely to maintain his overall hitting prowess and ability to get on base than Ellsbury. You keep bringing up Pedroia's contract, but their skillsets are not comparable, and Pedroia is a better player.

 

In all fairness, Pedroia does beat the s*** out of himself on a daily basis.

[marklmw]

Pedroia is not a good comparison. He is a better, more productive hitter. He plays a less demanding position. He is more durable. And he is more likely to maintain his overall hitting prowess and ability to get on base than Ellsbury. You keep bringing up Pedroia's contract, but their skillsets are not comparable, and Pedroia is a better player.

 

Love Pedroia, who doesn't? A healthy Ellsbury is better than a healthy Pedroia. Pedroia never got run over by Beltre and I believe that he shut it down last season with a similar injury that Ellsbury stole a base with. If you do not think that luck has something to do with injuries you are mistaken. Ellsbury is a tough kid and he has been unlucky injury wise. Each time he was injured he worked his way back. Yeah yeah yeah I think Ellsbury is a great talent, home grown on the farm, it gets on base ... gets pitchers off their game ... remember that Ellsbury does not get to bat with Ellsbury on base. Ellsbury is a winner.

[lospunchados]

Love Pedroia, who doesn't? A healthy Ellsbury is better than a healthy Pedroia. Pedroia never got run over by Beltre and I believe that he shut it down last season with a similar injury that Ellsbury stole a base with. If you do not think that luck has something to do with injuries you are mistaken. Ellsbury is a tough kid and he has been unlucky injury wise. Each time he was injured he worked his way back. Yeah yeah yeah I think Ellsbury is a great talent, home grown on the farm, it gets on base ... gets pitchers off their game ... remember that Ellsbury does not get to bat with Ellsbury on base. Ellsbury is a winner.

 

Ellsbury has had many injury problems but he isn't a more valuable member than pedroia. All of ellsbury's value is tied to the fact that he is a plus defender ( which Pedroia also is ) and his legs. If he has a hammy injury and it doesn't fully heal in a year he has is an average outfielder at best player. Pedroia plays injured at a very high level, and though I understand that Ellsbury has had a few injuries that he could not play through, if ellsbury injures his legs he loses a ton of value. Pedroia has had some power sapped by his thumb injury this year but is still getting on base a ton, hitting for extra bases and playing gold glove defense.

[mvp 78]

If Ells was a plus defender, he'd be able to throw a ball from the warning track to 2nd without it bouncing. His arm is just as bad as Damon's.

[lospunchados]

If Ells was a plus defender, he'd be able to throw a ball from the warning track to 2nd without it bouncing. His arm is just as bad as Damon's.

 

Lets not be hasty, nobodies arm in the outfield was as bad as Damon's.

[User Name]

Defense and arm are two different tools though. Ells is a plus defender with a poor arm.

[Dojji]

Ellsbury has had many injury problems but he isn't a more valuable member than pedroia.

And that's almost relevant. there's not a lot of players in this league more valuable than Pedroia, even leaving the intangibles aside.

 

All of ellsbury's value is tied to the fact that he is a plus defender ( which Pedroia also is ) and his legs. If he has a hammy injury and it doesn't fully heal in a year he has is an average outfielder at best player.

 

And if Pedroia has a hammy injury, it really impacts his ability to play his position too, even more so than a second baseman of average height, considering the way he throws himself around. Hamstring injuries are just no fun for anyone.

 

Pedroia plays injured at a very high level, and though I understand that Ellsbury has had a few injuries that he could not play through, if ellsbury injures his legs he loses a ton of value. Pedroia has had some power sapped by his thumb injury this year but is still getting on base a ton, hitting for extra bases and playing gold glove defense.

 

I'm sorry, I think you're watching the wrong player. I'm watching Jacoby Ellsbury, and you seem to be watching Jarrod Dyson. Ellsbury has more than his share of extra base pop.

 

And quit making the argument that Ellsbury is one injury away from ineffectiveness, while failing to apply that to literally everyone else in the lineup.

 

Dustin Pedroia has missed his share of time with injuries, besides the ones he plays through. I don't think there's an extremely on his body that Pedroia hasn't fractured at least once. He plays hurt so much because he gets himself hurt so much. that's not an indication of durability on his part, quite the reverse.

 

Since this originally came up about a concern as to how he'll hold up going into his late 30's let me just say that yes, I am in fact concerned. His speed and power are both down each of the last 2 years. Small players age badly, that's a historical fact. it's a risk you have to take to keep a talent like Pedroia in the fold, though, and that being the case, so be it.

Edited September 22, 2013 by Dojji

[Dojji]

Defense and arm are two different tools though. Ells is a plus defender with a poor arm.

 

Who was the last centerfielder you saw in Fenway that you would consider had a great arm?

 

I'm just curious. I mean, Damon notwithstanding, have a theory that the depth of Fenway's centerfield makes outfield arms look worse than they are when they play center regularly.

 

Regardless, just because there's two different defensive tools doesn't mean those tools are equal in signficance. Arm strength in the outfield just comes up so relatively infrequently that it's hard for it to compete with the value of range

 

Ellsbury's range adds a great deal more in value than his arm takes away, that's just the truth. Sure, an extra base here and there, an extra run here and there, can be attributed to a weak arm, but it's nothing comparison to the extra base madness that can erupt if a centerfielder's range tool is mediocre or worse.

Edited September 22, 2013 by Dojji

[marklmw]

Who was the last centerfielder you saw in Fenway that you would consider had a great arm?

 

I'm just curious. I mean, Damon notwithstanding, have a theory that the depth of Fenway's centerfield makes outfield arms look worse than they are when they play center regularly.

 

Regardless, just because there's two different defensive tools doesn't mean those tools are equal in signficance. Arm strength in the outfield just comes up so relatively infrequently that it's hard for it to compete with the value of range

 

Ellsbury's range adds a great deal more in value than his arm takes away, that's just the truth. Sure, an extra base here and there, an extra run here and there, can be attributed to a weak arm, but it's nothing comparison to the extra base madness that can erupt if a centerfielder's range tool is mediocre or worse.

 

Well said Dojji ... well said.

[SoxSport]

Mark and Dojii, put me in your camp concerning Ellsbury vs Bradley. Jackie is a hard working and likeable young ballplayer but he doesn't have the speed Ells had, strikes out too much and I am concerned about his ability to steal bases for us in the leadoff spot, and, more importantly, his ability to consistently hit Major League pitching. If I had my druthers I would want Jacoby to end his career wearing Red Sox Red and I hope sanity prevails and we resign him. However, it is out of our hands.

 

Who says the choice has to be Bradley or Ells? Victorino is 32 or 33. Bradley is a potential 5 tool player. He has power as he showed today. Another HR over the bullpen.

 

This isn't a choice between Bradley and Ellsbury. Patience. He's a 20 yr old kid.

[Dojji]

Who says the choice has to be Bradley or Ells? Victorino is 32 or 33. Bradley is a potential 5 tool player. He has power as he showed today. Another HR over the bullpen.

 

This isn't a choice between Bradley and Ellsbury. Patience. He's a 20 yr old kid.

 

Then who plays right field?

[seabeachfred]

Who says the choice has to be Bradley or Ells? Victorino is 32 or 33. Bradley is a potential 5 tool player. He has power as he showed today. Another HR over the bullpen.

 

This isn't a choice between Bradley and Ellsbury. Patience. He's a 20 yr old kid.

 

The last few games has seen Bradley start to hit. He may, as you say, be ready to take over CF. However, I reserve the right to wonder if he can hit Major League pitching consistently. Keep in mind that he is still hitting under 200. You can't have such a person batting leadoff and being in the lineup if he is an outfielder. We'll just have to wait to see what happens because I'm sure the Sox are going to resign Ells even though I think they should.

[sk7326]

No one seems to be bothered paying Pedroia 14M per when he is 37 and 38. Do you really think Pedroia is going to have the same range and bat speed when he is 37 and 38? 6 years for Ellsbury takes him to age 35 to begin the season 36 at seasons end.

 

Salaries go up over time. What Pedroia would need to do in his old age to justify his salary is a lot less than what he'd have to now. Part of life in the long deals is accepting negative years for the positive ones up front. Pedroia should be able to produce enough in the 5 years ahead to make the 1-2 win years when he becomes old decent.

 

The argument could apply to Ellsbury too - but if he cannot play CF, that becomes seriously dicey because while his bat has pop, it's not a corner outfielder's level. A 6 year deal for Ells means having to evaluate 2-3 years of him as a left fielder, and that lowers his future value. Considering the datapoints of last year - Ellsbury should probably get a $20M offer from somebody ... and if it's for more than 4 years I'd enjoy Bradley's run here. Bradley has not shown "he can't hit major league pitching" - he showed that he's not Ken Griffey Jr (hitting major league pitching without any reps - and Griffey had no minor league ones). His approach is much more advanced than Ellsbury's - and he is already an above average center fielder. Those things, age, athleticism - he is a pretty safe bet. Can he put up a couple of MVP-ish seasons? I wouldn't bet on that - but I like his chances to be a good, important player.

[Laser Show]

Bradley has not shown "he can't hit major league pitching" - he showed that he's not Ken Griffey Jr (hitting major league pitching without any reps - and Griffey had no minor league ones)

 

 

JBJ hasn't had enough time to show/prove anything yet. Prior to this year, he had roughly the same amount of MiLB ABs as Griffey Jr had, Jr just did it younger. Give JBJ a break here, he's only had 100 MLB PAs in limited action to start his career. How about we let him play a few months regularly before we start making any comparisons to anybody?

 

 

 

And why are you trying to compare him to Griffey? Of course Griffey was better, he was a generational talent, but he's already falling victim to people inflating his stats. Yes, he crushed A pitching in '87 and '88 before getting promoted to AA in late '88. While he wasn't as productive there, he still hit AA pitching to the tune of an .845 OPS in 17 games. He didn't come up to the bigs and mash either. He started somewhat slow, with a .650 OPS over the first few weeks, had a nice summer, and then finished the year with a .600 OPS over the last couple of months.

[sk7326]

JBJ hasn't had enough time to show/prove anything yet. Prior to this year, he had roughly the same amount of MiLB ABs as Griffey Jr had, Jr just did it younger. Give JBJ a break here, he's only had 100 MLB PAs in limited action to start his career. How about we let him play a few months regularly before we start making any comparisons to anybody?

 

 

 

And why are you trying to compare him to Griffey? Of course Griffey was better, he was a generational talent, but he's already falling victim to people inflating his stats. Yes, he crushed A pitching in '87 and '88 before getting promoted to AA in late '88. While he wasn't as productive there, he still hit AA pitching to the tune of an .845 OPS in 17 games. He didn't come up to the bigs and mash either. He started somewhat slow, with a .650 OPS over the first few weeks, had a nice summer, and then finished the year with a .600 OPS over the last couple of months.

 

I wasn't comparing him to Griffey ... I was defending him against those who say he "can't hit major league pitching" because he has struggled in a major league role after roughly the same level of professional experience as Griffey.

[jung]

Who was the last centerfielder you saw in Fenway that you would consider had a great arm?

 

I'm just curious. I mean, Damon notwithstanding, have a theory that the depth of Fenway's centerfield makes outfield arms look worse than they are when they play center regularly.

 

Regardless, just because there's two different defensive tools doesn't mean those tools are equal in signficance. Arm strength in the outfield just comes up so relatively infrequently that it's hard for it to compete with the value of range

 

Ellsbury's range adds a great deal more in value than his arm takes away, that's just the truth. Sure, an extra base here and there, an extra run here and there, can be attributed to a weak arm, but it's nothing comparison to the extra base madness that can erupt if a centerfielder's range tool is mediocre or worse.

 

This is in part why considering all of the outfield positions as one makes no sense. Give me a CF that can go and get it any day. If he can go and get it the way Ells can, I can live with his lack of arm strength. Sure, Ells would be better if had an arm but the number of times he saves you out there with his legs more than makes up for it.....in CF. However RF is a different story. Range is not quite as valuable in RF as it is in CF. However a bad arm simply will not do in RF if you are seriously trying to fill the position on an everyday basis. I want an arm in RF. Put a pop gun like Ells in RF and you are asking for trouble.

 

I don't understand comparisons between Pedey and Ells at all. Why would you try to compare apples to oranges. The differences are so much greater than the similarities that there is no basis for the comparison.

 

The relevant argument regarding Ells is his dependence on his legs as a part of his total package as a player. Ells is a very natural athlete and he depends a great deal on his natural ability. He is not a terribly well schooled player. He makes fundamental baseball mistakes almost every day he takes the field. So I would have to think seriously about his athletic tool set and how long he can maintain it in any considerations about a long term, big money contract. The play at 2nd that caused him injury was a sloppy play on his part. If Ells had not made yet another fundamental baseball mistake sliding into second, he would not have put himself in position to be injured. So luck had little to do with it.

 

So what is Ells? To me is has not proven that he can hit reliably for power such that you would ever find him deeper in the order than #2. He is a terrific CF because he can go and get it but he does not have the arm for RF. So, as his speed declines, you have to consider what his value is if he continues to play CF, suggesting he will have to move to LF at some point. His legs allow us to forgive his arm in CF. But if you have a CF that can no longer go and get it AND has a weak arm, what do you have.......a LFer. That he is not that fundamentally sound as a player is another consideration as it ties with his almost complete reliance on his natural athletic ability. I actually might consider putting a $2 at the start of his annual salary for something like three years. But for anything longer than three years, I would not pay him anything outside of a number than ended in a "$-teen".

[SoxSport]

The last few games has seen Bradley start to hit. He may, as you say, be ready to take over CF. However, I reserve the right to wonder if he can hit Major League pitching consistently. Keep in mind that he is still hitting under 200. You can't have such a person batting leadoff and being in the lineup if he is an outfielder. We'll just have to wait to see what happens because I'm sure the Sox are going to resign Ells even though I think they should.

 

I didn't say he was "ready to take over CF." I said this was not a choice between Bradley and Ells in CF. Bradley came up as a left fielder. He can probably play any OF position--one of his strengths. He came up noted for his speed and defense.

It isn't "either or" with Bradley-Ells. That would be a mistake. I'm sure they understand that. He can play either corner OF position.

 

His overall stats are misleading. Pre all-star game, he hit .155 (OPS .568), post all-star .258 (.743 OPS). The latter, mainly on Sept recall. He's improving and will probably get better next year. His AAA numbers were similar to Bogaerts.

[SoxSport]

Then who plays right field?

 

They have a lot of flexibility with Ells, Vic, Bradley, Nava and Gomes. Gomes and Carp are role guys off the bench in LF and 1B. Carp may see more time at 1B next year. Nava is a .300 hitter. Bradley you figure as a backup for Ells and Vic, who get hurt frequently. Bradley can play any OF position--an advantage over Gomes and Nava.

[marklmw]

They have a lot of flexibility with Ells, Vic, Bradley, Nava and Gomes. Gomes and Carp are role guys off the bench in LF and 1B. Carp may see more time at 1B next year. Nava is a .300 hitter. Bradley you figure as a backup for Ells and Vic, who get hurt frequently. Bradley can play any OF position--an advantage over Gomes and Nava.

 

I like Nava ... his average is 80+ points less when batting from the right side ... maybe he should pull a Victorino and bat from the left side all the time. Just because you can switch hit does not mean that you should. Nava is a 300 hitter against right handed pitching. And you are correct they would have a lot of flexibility with Ells, Vic, Bradley, Gomes and Nava. I will guarantee you that Ells can play center field for 4 more years. Hell, the Sox signed Cameron to play center when Cameron was 82. Not every field is Fenway ... even if they move Ells to left 4 or 5 years from now he will still be faster than your average left fielder.