Can Mike Carp be the Sox full time 1B in 2014

[marklmw]

Has anyone noticed Mike Carp's 2013 numbers? He is sporting an OPS of .933.

 

If you pro-rated his At Bats to mirror Napoli's (Carp has only 162 AB's) Carp would have 20 hrs. and 72 RBI's ... possibly more if hitting behind Ortiz. just saying.

[Behindenemylines]

I don't know how he would do against left handed pitching. Most of his playing time has come against righties and he has been productive against them most of the season. Defensively he has been okay at 1B. If you had a right handed bat that could play against tough lefties and also play some OF then I don't see why the Sox couldn't play Carp at 1B next year. His bat has been good all season. Napoli has not given the Sox enough power to off set the high strikeout total. By season's end he will have the Sox single season K record. That one year contract is looking good.

[a700hitter]

If Napoli gets hot and puts up big power numbers down the stretch, they might re-sign him. If not, he's not worth $13 miilion/year. Carp could get a shot, maybe even Nava.

[sk7326]

I say no - but Carp with a right handed caddy is not at all bad as a fallback position. And yes, if Napoli did not have a competition for his services, he'd make a fine righty partner.

[Station 13]

Or maybe that Abreu guy?

[Thunder]

If Napoli gets hot and puts up big power numbers down the stretch, they might re-sign him. If not, he's not worth $13 miilion/year. Carp could get a shot, maybe even Nava.

 

Agree completely. The market for 1B is small right now. A replacement will come from the inside.

[RedSoxNC84]

I'd say with a right handed platoon partner, and some more ABs yes. Even if they resign Napoli, I think Carp needs to get more playing time at 1b, and when he's not at 1b you can still slot him in at LF or even DH given the need for other players to grab some rest.

[RedSoxNC84]

If they don't resign Nap, and WMB starts to hit better, it wouldn't be a terrible idea to split carp and wmb both at 1b.

[rjortiz]

29.7% K%, and a .410 BABIP just screams fluke.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't think Carp can be the everyday 1B.

 

I think, considering the lack of FA market and the complete lack of depth in the minors at 1B, the Red Sox need to do whatever it takes to land Jose Abreu. The kid is 26, he hit 33 HR in 66 G in 2010, and is just an absolute monster.

 

I know those numbers don't translate 100% to MLB, but he's got insane raw power. He's precisely the kind of guy the Red Sox need to acquire for the future of 1B.

[jacksonianmarch]

Carp actually hit lefties better than righties from 2010-2012. The issue with him has been health. He's never really been healthy enough to be a full time guy. This season, he's been a situational guy and he is flourishing and he is staying healthy. It will definitely be in the discussion, but I have a feeling the sox are gonna platoon the 1b job next yr and Carp could get the lion's share of the ABs in that situation

[rjortiz]

I don't think Carp can be the everyday 1B.

 

I think, considering the lack of FA market and the complete lack of depth in the minors at 1B, the Red Sox need to do whatever it takes to land Jose Abreu. The kid is 26, he hit 33 HR in 66 G in 2010, and is just an absolute monster.

 

I know those numbers don't translate 100% to MLB, but he's got insane raw power. He's precisely the kind of guy the Red Sox need to acquire for the future of 1B.

 

I don't think he'll have much trouble getting a 6/60 deal. Could be an absolute steal if that power translates.

[Orange Juiced]

I don't think he'll have much trouble getting a 6/60 deal. Could be an absolute steal if that power translates.

 

I wanted them to go after the Cuban pitcher but they should definitely kick the tires very seriously on this guy.

[Spitball]

I worry Abreu will turn out to be another Willy Mo Pena. Like Pena, he has tremendous power potential, but there are concerns about his bat speed and fielding.

 

And how much will he cost? Cespedes was 4 years at $36 million and Puig signed for 7 years at $42 million. Abreu is already 26-years-old and the market for a first base/DH type will be limited because the Yankees, Angels, and Dodgers have first basemen. The NL doesn't need DHs. I figure that leaves the Rangers and Red Sox bidding on the guy.

 

If he turns out to be another Cespedes or Puig, that would be great. If he is another Willy Mo...

[rjortiz]

I worry Abreu will turn out to be another Willy Mo Pena. Like Pena, he has tremendous power potential, but there are concerns about his bat speed and fielding.

 

And how much will he cost? Cespedes was 4 years at $36 million and Puig signed for 7 years at $42 million. Abreu is already 26-years-old and the market for a first base/DH type will be limited because the Yankees, Angels, and Dodgers have first basemen. The NL doesn't need DHs. I figure that leaves the Rangers and Red Sox bidding on the guy.

 

If he turns out to be another Cespedes or Puig, that would be great. If he is another Willy Mo...

 

Orioles will probably pursue him. As for Wily Mo Pena, his achilles heel was pitch recognition. Abreu has walked more than he strikes out, so it wouldn't too presumptions to assume that he has decent strike zone judgement.

[sk7326]

Wily Mo was an interesting case. Horrible pitch recognition. But the Reds burned through his options so quickly that he couldn't be sent to the minors. He needed minor league ABs but the Reds mismanagement made it impossible. He was just good enough to justify seeing if he could turn into a diamond.

 

Abreu looks like he has a more advanced approach (hard to have a less advanced one).

[Behindenemylines]

I like Carp. He has been very productive with his playing time this year. Abreu is someone to look at, but if its Wily Mo power we are looking at I don't know. We have a 1B this year that strikeout more then I care for.

[sk7326]

Carp can be a 1B, but I suspect he'll need a RH caddy (like Salty and Nava do). Fortunately, finding those for value should not be difficult - it's one of the easier job openings to fill.

[Palodios]

With all the big money teams out of the bidding, it'll definitely be worth taking a very serious look at Abreu.

[Spitball]

Wily Mo was an interesting case. Horrible pitch recognition. But the Reds burned through his options so quickly that he couldn't be sent to the minors. He needed minor league ABs but the Reds mismanagement made it impossible. He was just good enough to justify seeing if he could turn into a diamond.

 

Abreu looks like he has a more advanced approach (hard to have a less advanced one).

 

Not exactly the Reds' fault. There is an interesting story here with the Mets and Marlins signing Willy Mo as a teenager (contracts voided), but the Yankees eventually signed him as a 17 year-old to major league contract. That meant he had five years to make it to the majors or be a free agent. The Reds had acquired Drew Henson (see Tom Brady) in a trade for Denny Neagle, but he threatened to return to Michigan rather than be out of the Yankee system. The Reds were desperate and agreed to take Pena's bad contract for Henson who would not play for them.

[SCM33]

Carp is not a full time major league 1B. Nava is not a full time major league 1B'man either. Both of those guys are excellent platoon players (yes, I said Nava and great in the same sentence) and should return in their roles next year.

 

.......Mike Napoli is also not a full time major league 1B'man. Napoli should be a platoon man, just the same as Gomes. I wish Gomes could play a littler 1B. They would have a solid rotation between 1B and LF between Carp, Gomes and Nava.

[marklmw]

I don't think Carp can be the everyday 1B.

 

I think, considering the lack of FA market and the complete lack of depth in the minors at 1B, the Red Sox need to do whatever it takes to land Jose Abreu. The kid is 26, he hit 33 HR in 66 G in 2010, and is just an absolute monster.

 

I know those numbers don't translate 100% to MLB, but he's got insane raw power. He's precisely the kind of guy the Red Sox need to acquire for the future of 1B.

 

Jose Abreu is a perfect fit for Boston. From what I have read he will give us everything we had in Gonzalez and then some. An upgrade at SS with Bogaerts, upgrade at 1B with Abreu, and Upgrade at 3rd with a hitting Middlebrooks ... or Drew at SS and Bogaerts at 3rd. Perhaps Clay pitching 30 games next season ... Boston will be awesome.

[Behindenemylines]

I can see a Carp and a right handed hitting 1B platoon in 2014. I don't think Nap comes back.

[Spitball]

For his career, Carp's splits are pretty even. Versus RHP .261/.338/.446 and versus LHP .294/.333/.458. He has far more at bats versus righty pitchers, but that is probably old fashioned thinking that all lefties can't hit lefty pitching.

[rjortiz]

I can see a Carp and a right handed hitting 1B platoon in 2014. I don't think Nap comes back.

 

Who else is out there? Unless we land Abreu, I don't see too many alternatives. Loney? Berkman? Konerko? Not that appealing.

[sk7326]

For his career, Carp's splits are pretty even. Versus RHP .261/.338/.446 and versus LHP .294/.333/.458. He has far more at bats versus righty pitchers, but that is probably old fashioned thinking that all lefties can't hit lefty pitching.

 

162 PAs against lefties - basically the equivalent of 40 games. That is some small sample sizes at work - clearly his managers have thought that he's needed a righty partner if exposed for too much more than he has. For what its worth, using fangraphs, against lefties he had a higher strikeout rate, walked about half the rate and had a .381 BABIP. What is more relevant is that finding a corner infielder/outfielder who can hit lefties and be adequate defensively is not that difficult to find - heck Carp was not difficult to find. It's an easy way to construct a solid 1B without spending like they did for AGon.

[redsoxfan3]

Or maybe that Abreu guy?

 

If he is ready to be signed in the offseason and is actually going to be the best available 1B, then I am all for it. Carp is good in a platoon role. I would rather have someone who can hit 30+ homers at 1B over Mike Napoli's strikeouts. If it comes down to it, I would be okay with a Carp platoon role, but if Abreu can be as good as people are saying he is, then we need to sign him.

 

We could potentially get increased power at SS with Bogaerts and could potentially get increased power at 1B with Abreu. That would be huge.

Edited August 18, 2013 by redsoxfan3

[Dojji]

There's a lot more RHP's than LHP's. If Carp can kill RHP's, he's a decent candidate to get a long string of at bats at first.

[Spitball]

162 PAs against lefties - basically the equivalent of 40 games. That is some small sample sizes at work - clearly his managers have thought that he's needed a righty partner if exposed for too much more than he has.

 

Actually, 162 plate appearances is not really that small of a sample size. It is equivalent to the at-bats a starting first baseman might have against left handed pitchers in a whole season. Joey Votto faced fewer left handers last season. Way too many managers are old school and adhere too strictly to the fear of the lefty batter facing the left handed pitcher.

 

For what its worth, using fangraphs, against lefties he had a higher strikeout rate, walked about half the rate and had a .381 BABIP.

 

Okay, so now I am glad to see you throw out the small sample size argument. Actually, the greater strikeout and lesser walk rates can be expected, but they are not such a worry if the OPS is not significantly affected.

 

As for his BABIP, now we can talk small sample size. This statistic is a better measure of pitcher's effectiveness, but it is far from an exact measurement in any way. It might tell of an artificially inflated statistic, but it does not tell us a player's statistics are totally skewed.

 

What is more relevant is that finding a corner infielder/outfielder who can hit lefties and be adequate defensively is not that difficult to find - heck Carp was not difficult to find. It's an easy way to construct a solid 1B without spending like they did for AGon.

 

I agree they should not pay for an Adrian Gonzalez, but the Mike Carps of the world are not really easy to find. Seattle probably hurt his numbers. The Sox were lucky to get him.

[rjortiz]

As for his BABIP, now we can talk small sample size. This statistic is a better measure of pitcher's effectiveness, but it is far from an exact measurement in any way. It might tell of an artificially inflated statistic, but it does not tell us a player's statistics are totally skewed

 

Yes, it does. Even Miguel Cabrera can't manage a BABIP of .409. He's coming back to earth.