Can Mike Carp be the Sox full time 1B in 2014

[lospunchados]

And that's almost relevant. there's not a lot of players in this league more valuable than Pedroia, even leaving the intangibles aside.

 

There actually aren't that many more valuable players than pedroia even if you exclude the intangibles. He is an elite player at a tough position to get a lot of offense out of and the best defender at second base.

 

I really like ellsbury, but he is going to want a Carl Crawford contract and he isn't worth that. If he would sign for a little more than Bourn got sure, i would take him in a heartbeat, he's a great player. But he's not worth a seven year deal for 125 million like he will want.

 

 

 

And if Pedroia has a hammy injury, it really impacts his ability to play his position too, even more so than a second baseman of average height, considering the way he throws himself around. Hamstring injuries are just no fun for anyone.

 

 

 

I'm sorry, I think you're watching the wrong player. I'm watching Jacoby Ellsbury, and you seem to be watching Jarrod Dyson. Ellsbury has more than his share of extra base pop.

 

And quit making the argument that Ellsbury is one injury away from ineffectiveness, while failing to apply that to literally everyone else in the lineup.

 

Dustin Pedroia has missed his share of time with injuries, besides the ones he plays through. I don't think there's an extremely on his body that Pedroia hasn't fractured at least once. He plays hurt so much because he gets himself hurt so much. that's not an indication of durability on his part, quite the reverse.

 

Since this originally came up about a concern as to how he'll hold up going into his late 30's let me just say that yes, I am in fact concerned. His speed and power are both down each of the last 2 years. Small players age badly, that's a historical fact. it's a risk you have to take to keep a talent like Pedroia in the fold, though, and that being the case, so be it.

 

I am watching Ellsbury but at his best now he is maybe the 5th best center fielder, And he is a lot closer to being Brett Gardner as a player than any of the players above him. He's great and i hope they sign him, but for 5 years max.

 

You say pedroia has declined over the last two years but really the only decline in last years numbers was his OBP everything else was about a career average on a per season basis ( and pretty much nobody was working walks late in the year last year), and this year only his power is down (which it wasn't last year) so i don't see the decline you are talking about. Pedroia has not really missed his fair share of time with injuries he has played in 140 games each year except twice since becoming a full time starter in 2007 ( and one of those years was 139 his rookie year where he didn't miss time to injury just didn't play everyday).

[mvp 78]

Sorry MVP but in 87 Boggs stole 1 base and was caught stealing 3 times. I can't say if Boggs was the leadoff hitter but I do know that he did not play center field. So I respectfully disagree with you. Ellsburys 2011 season was better.

 

And Ells went 39 and 15, meaning he turned 15 of his productive hits or walks into outs. I'll still go with Boggs and his much higher OBP and OPS+.

[User Name]

And Ells went 39 and 15, meaning he turned 15 of his productive hits or walks into outs. I'll still go with Boggs and his much higher OBP and OPS+.

 

Ellsbury over Boggs and his average season of .415 OBP and 100 runs scored? Dude's ridiculous. The mancrush is seriously clouding the guy's vision.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Wade Boggs: Career 132 wRC+.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury: 2011 136 wRC+.

 

It's not even a comparison. In Ellsbury's most outrageous, non-repeatable season, his wRC+ was nominally (3%) better than Wade Boggs' CAREER wRC+

[mvp 78]

Look, Ellsbury is a great player. However, I don't see him having another 2011 or going to the HOF like Boggs.

 

If they can sign him for 5/75, you do it. If he wants 20 AAV, you walk away.

[marklmw]

Look, Ellsbury is a great player. However, I don't see him having another 2011 or going to the HOF like Boggs.

 

If they can sign him for 5/75, you do it. If he wants 20 AAV, you walk away.

And what if Ells will sign for 5 / 85 do you turn him away? The Sox have 2 closers on the DL for the whole season costing more than 11m and you are worried about an extra 2 or 3 m per for Ellsbury. Why do you care so much about 2 or 3 m ... the idea is to put the best group of players together for Boston to win. The club is better with Ellsbury than without. What if they do sign Abreu at 10m per and he performs as well as Napoli ... that is 3m per in savings alone. Peavy comes off the books at the end of next season. Sox have a lot of flexibility when it comes to payroll.

[marklmw]

Wade Boggs: Career 132 wRC+.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury: 2011 136 wRC+.

 

It's not even a comparison. In Ellsbury's most outrageous, non-repeatable season, his wRC+ was nominally (3%) better than Wade Boggs' CAREER wRC+

 

I suppose that you need to be a MLB pitcher to better appreciate what it means to have a gold glove center fielder playing behind you. Taking gap doubles with runners on base and turning them into outs. Great Defensive teams are built up the middle ... CF, SS, 2B, C

Edited September 24, 2013 by marklmw

[marklmw]

Ellsbury over Boggs and his average season of .415 OBP and 100 runs scored? Dude's ridiculous. The mancrush is seriously clouding the guy's vision.

 

Upon further reflection I am wrong about Boggs vs. Ellsbury. Boggs was and will be at the end of Ellsbury's career a better hitter. It however does not mean you let Ellsbury walk over 2-3m per. Sox will definitely make a QO to Ellsbury if they cannot come to terms and that will be that. If Ells walks he walks and JBJ will play center and bat 9th.

[mvp 78]

And what if Ells will sign for 5 / 85 do you turn him away? The Sox have 2 closers on the DL for the whole season costing more than 11m and you are worried about an extra 2 or 3 m per for Ellsbury. Why do you care so much about 2 or 3 m ... the idea is to put the best group of players together for Boston to win. The club is better with Ellsbury than without. What if they do sign Abreu at 10m per and he performs as well as Napoli ... that is 3m per in savings alone. Peavy comes off the books at the end of next season. Sox have a lot of flexibility when it comes to payroll.

 

I'm offended by you inability to do math. 5/75 AAV is 15. 20 - 15 = 5, not 2 or 3. Why overpay for an injury prone guy whose greatest asset is speed, which will only get worse over time (especially considering his injury history)?

[sk7326]

Ellsbury's 2011 was a 9.1/8.1 WAR sort of season - depending on which flavor you prefer. Basically that was Mike Trout territory - but obviously there is no reason to think that will come back. Ellsbury's best season beats Boggs narrowly from an fWAR view, Boggs by a nose in the bWAR world. Wade Boggs was a great player (and very strange dude) for a long time, so this is no insult.

 

Ellsbury is a 6 win player this year which would place him in the Top 20 or so position players in the league - which I think is fair. He is the 3rd or 4th best CF in the league ... Trout, McCutchen for sure ... Kemp if you want but you'd have to answer more profound durability issues than even Ellsbury has. Gomez is fascinating but the track record and reliance on defensive metrics inspires some skepticism.

 

But we buy his future, not his present - for him to absorb a position switch he will either have to be a defensive wizard like Victorino (whose bounceback season is a legit surprise btw) or hit like a quasi-slugger. I just don't see either happening. Bradley WILL be a dropoff next year - but that should not last very long.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I suppose that you need to be a MLB pitcher to better appreciate what it means to have a gold glove center fielder playing behind you. Taking gap doubles with runners on base and turning them into outs. Great Defensive teams are built up the middle ... CF, SS, 2B, C

 

So essentially what you're saying is that, not only do you have to be a C, 2B, SS, or CF in order to qualify, but you're also going to rely heavily on UZR, which is the most erratic defensive metric, but is a huge component of fWAR?

 

Try using BBRef, which uses DRS rather than UZR, which is a much more reliable defensive metric, and Boggs 87 season (8.2 bWAR) is better than Ellsbury's 2011 season (8.1 bWAR).

[marklmw]

I'm offended by you inability to do math. 5/75 AAV is 15. 20 - 15 = 5, not 2 or 3. Why overpay for an injury prone guy whose greatest asset is speed, which will only get worse over time (especially considering his injury history)?

I think that Ellsbury chances for 20m per ended with his injury and lack of HR's

[SoxFanForsyth]

Ellsbury's 2011 was a 9.1/8.1 WAR sort of season - depending on which flavor you prefer. Basically that was Mike Trout territory - but obviously there is no reason to think that will come back. Ellsbury's best season beats Boggs narrowly from an fWAR view, Boggs by a nose in the bWAR world. Wade Boggs was a great player (and very strange dude) for a long time, so this is no insult.

 

Ellsbury is a 6 win player this year which would place him in the Top 20 or so position players in the league - which I think is fair. He is the 3rd or 4th best CF in the league ... Trout, McCutchen for sure ... Kemp if you want but you'd have to answer more profound durability issues than even Ellsbury has. Gomez is fascinating but the track record and reliance on defensive metrics inspires some skepticism.

 

But we buy his future, not his present - for him to absorb a position switch he will either have to be a defensive wizard like Victorino (whose bounceback season is a legit surprise btw) or hit like a quasi-slugger. I just don't see either happening. Bradley WILL be a dropoff next year - but that should not last very long.

 

Not to mention that the Red Sox are going to absorb the loss of Ellsbury by trading Cecchini, Betts, Barnes, and Swihart for Giancarlo Stanton.

[marklmw]

So essentially what you're saying is that, not only do you have to be a C, 2B, SS, or CF in order to qualify, but you're also going to rely heavily on UZR, which is the most erratic defensive metric, but is a huge component of fWAR?

 

Try using BBRef, which uses DRS rather than UZR, which is a much more reliable defensive metric, and Boggs 87 season (8.2 bWAR) is better than Ellsbury's 2011 season (8.1 bWAR).

 

Fine, I have already admitted that Boggs was and will be a better career hitter than Ellsbury. I still feel that Ellsburys 2011 season was better than Boggs 87 season because he did it all from the lead off spot. I mean who hits 30 hr's and has 100+ rbi's from the lead off shot ... it was a pretty special year. Back to Boggs, I had forgotten what an amazing hitter he was. He actually could have hit for more power but he made a decision to hit for average. He used the left field wall at Fenway as good as any lefty has. Ellsbury is not in Boggs league. That being said the Sox need to resign Ellsbury.

[marklmw]

Not to mention that the Red Sox are going to absorb the loss of Ellsbury by trading Cecchini, Betts, Barnes, and Swihart for Giancarlo Stanton.

 

Wow ... that is a bold prediction.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

And if he's right, he is the man. I've seen Stanton play a million times. Trust me, this is the guy you give up a lot for. He is an animal. That power he has going to make the green monster like it's nothing.

[sk7326]

So essentially what you're saying is that, not only do you have to be a C, 2B, SS, or CF in order to qualify, but you're also going to rely heavily on UZR, which is the most erratic defensive metric, but is a huge component of fWAR?

 

Try using BBRef, which uses DRS rather than UZR, which is a much more reliable defensive metric, and Boggs 87 season (8.2 bWAR) is better than Ellsbury's 2011 season (8.1 bWAR).

 

Defensive Runs Saved is derived from a zone rating ... BBRef uses Total Zone Rating rather than UZR ... BBRef's Total Zone is helpful for their mission, which is to be able to put zone ratings on every player in history. Fangraphs and BBRef use the same defensive metrics for life before 2002.

 

Also, 8.2 v 8.1 with something like rWAR is not enough to scream better - but it definitely allows that argument. Small differences in WAR invite diving into the components. Boggs was the better player, there is no doubting that. But Ellsbury's 2011 does compare favorably with Boggs (or most anybody else's) very best.

Edited September 24, 2013 by sk7326

[marklmw]

And if he's right, he is the man. I've seen Stanton play a million times. Trust me, this is the guy you give up a lot for. He is an animal. That power he has going to make the green monster like it's nothing.

I will be very surprised if the Sox empty their farm for Stanton but if they did I would not mind having him on our team for sure. He is not have his best year and he is still producing with power.

[Dojji]

Not to mention that the Red Sox are going to absorb the loss of Ellsbury by trading Cecchini, Betts, Barnes, and Swihart for Giancarlo Stanton.

 

Not enough from Florida's perspective. the talent is there but they want big league ready players, not prospects.

 

Any package that brings Stanton to Boston involves Bogaerts plus. Likely Bogaerts, Bradley, and 2 from SFF's list.

Edited September 25, 2013 by Dojji

[Spitball]

Personally, I am happy with the new direction. The Sox got rid of the big contract, big name guys in Beckett, Crawford and Gonzalez. They are about to finish an unexpectedly great season. Why do they need Stanton, his injuries, and his eventually large contract? I would love to see the Sox continue to build from within and sign the Vitorinos, Napolis, and Drews to fill in the voids while the prospects develop.

 

The throw big money at big names days are surely over. The Red Sox got lucky with the Dodger trade while the Yankees and Angels try to figure out how to rebuild around bad long term contracts. I would love to see Stanton with the Red Sox, but he is not a need. The Sox are doing very well with their new philosophy.

[Dojji]

I can get behind that. If we're talking about bringing in an outfielder next year, I think the target should be less Giancarlo Stanton and more Coco Crisp. Would not mind at all bringing Crisp in as a roleplayer to provide insurance in Centerfield if we lose Ellsbury, since he's a danged good CF, knows our park, and hits well from the right side, all things we could wind up needing next year.

[User Name]

Personally, I am happy with the new direction. The Sox got rid of the big contract, big name guys in Beckett, Crawford and Gonzalez. They are about to finish an unexpectedly great season. Why do they need Stanton, his injuries, and his eventually large contract? I would love to see the Sox continue to build from within and sign the Vitorinos, Napolis, and Drews to fill in the voids while the prospects develop.

 

The throw big money at big names days are surely over. The Red Sox got lucky with the Dodger trade while the Yankees and Angels try to figure out how to rebuild around bad long term contracts. I would love to see Stanton with the Red Sox, but he is not a need. The Sox are doing very well with their new philosophy.

 

....which also should apply to Ellsbury, should he refuse to sign for what would honestly be his market value. 2011 was a mirage. 2013 is who he really is, and that's not worth 20 million per now, let alone when he inevitably switches positions.

[sk7326]

Personally, I am happy with the new direction. The Sox got rid of the big contract, big name guys in Beckett, Crawford and Gonzalez. They are about to finish an unexpectedly great season. Why do they need Stanton, his injuries, and his eventually large contract? I would love to see the Sox continue to build from within and sign the Vitorinos, Napolis, and Drews to fill in the voids while the prospects develop.

 

The throw big money at big names days are surely over. The Red Sox got lucky with the Dodger trade while the Yankees and Angels try to figure out how to rebuild around bad long term contracts. I would love to see Stanton with the Red Sox, but he is not a need. The Sox are doing very well with their new philosophy.

 

It's not the big money that was the problem - it was the big money at 30 year olds (and even the Gonzalez trade was not a poor evaluation - the result did not work out). Stanton is 23, huge difference. Now I wouldn't empty the farm for him - but the big money should not be a reason not to want him. This is why you grow the prospects in part.

 

The philosophy of the FO is not new at all, it's just reverting to the 2003-2010 edition which did quite nicely. Honestly where the FO is now is an admission that 2011 did not require a drastic shift ... and that 2012 (the drastic shift) was proof

[SoxFanForsyth]

Not enough from Florida's perspective. the talent is there but they want big league ready players, not prospects.

 

Any package that brings Stanton to Boston involves Bogaerts plus. Likely Bogaerts, Bradley, and 2 from SFF's list.

 

No way. I'll add Doubront to the list, but I need a bullpen arm back with Stanton.

 

The Red Sox can 110% get Stanton without Bogaerts or Bradley.

 

Cecchini was ranked 21 in Klaw's midseason top 50, Betts is a no doubt top 100 (probably top 60), Swihart will be a top 50, Barnes easily a top 100, probably top 70.

 

Nobody is going to offer two top 50's and two top 100's for Stanton because nobody has the goods.

 

Cecchini, Betts, Swihart, and Barnes or Ranaudo (Ranaudo was BA's #37 midseason), so that's potentially 3 top 50's, a top 60, and an MLB ready pitcher.

 

The Marlins won't be able to get a better package than that. Period. Not even close.

Edited September 25, 2013 by SoxFanForsyth

[SoxFanForsyth]

Personally, I am happy with the new direction. The Sox got rid of the big contract, big name guys in Beckett, Crawford and Gonzalez. They are about to finish an unexpectedly great season. Why do they need Stanton, his injuries, and his eventually large contract? I would love to see the Sox continue to build from within and sign the Vitorinos, Napolis, and Drews to fill in the voids while the prospects develop.

 

The throw big money at big names days are surely over. The Red Sox got lucky with the Dodger trade while the Yankees and Angels try to figure out how to rebuild around bad long term contracts. I would love to see Stanton with the Red Sox, but he is not a need. The Sox are doing very well with their new philosophy.

 

You do realize that Stanton would mishit 45 HR's when playing in the AL East and more specifically Fenway, no? He's Manny Ramirez 2.0. And he's 23. Having him and Bogaerts locked up would be one of the best #3/#4 hitter combos for years and years to come.

[Dojji]

No way. I'll add Doubront to the list, but I need a bullpen arm back with Stanton.

 

Then Florida hangs up and works on an extension with Stanton, or gets onto the phone with someone who's actually willing to pay what it actually takes to bring in Giancarlo Stanton. The Marlins are not in a position where they have to accept the least awful deal at the moment, they aren't going to give an inch because they don't need to, so why make deal proposals as if they might or should?

 

Florida has little to no interest in Doubront since he's burnt some years. They want that first year high profile guy they can sell as a replacement for Stanton. that's Bogaerts.

 

James Shields cost Wil Myers from the Rays despite being near the end of his deal and not exactly being Felix Hernandez, do you really think the Marlins are going to take less value than Wil Myers for Giancarlo Stanton? Really, do you actually think that?

Edited September 25, 2013 by Dojji

[SoxFanForsyth]

Then Florida hangs up and works on an extension with Stanton, or gets onto the phone with someone who's actually willing to pay what it actually takes.

 

Florida has little to no interest in Doubront since he's burnt some years. They want that first year high profile guy they can sell as a replacement for Stanton. that's Bogaerts.

 

Please, tell me who is going to give the Marlins more than 3 top 50's and a top 60-75?? EDIT: A top 20 (Cecchini), 2 top 50's (Swihart, Ranaudo), and a top 75 (Betts).

 

The problem is, NOBODY HAS THAT KIND OF A FARM SYSTEM. The only team that can outbid the Marlins would be the Cardinals, but they've got Tavares waiting in the wings and they're not going to trade for Stanton.

 

If you take Bogaerts and Bradley out of the picture, the Red Sox still make the absolute best offer to the Marlins, hands down.

 

And working on an extension with Stanton? Please man. He absolutely hates it there. That guy can't wait to hit FA and get out of Florida.

[Dojji]

The flaw in your argument is that Florida is not obliged to make a deal at all. They don't have to take the least awful deal. If they don't see a deal they like, they wait for someone to get twitchy and overpay at the deadline, and work on keeping Stanton if possible in the meanwhile. They have more than enough leverage that a team is not going to back them into a corner and force them to accept a small handful of B+ guys when that's not what their franchise needs from a Stanton deal..

 

The Marlins' target in a Stanton trade is someone they can sell as a true replacement for Stanton to keep the fans from checking out entirely over the fact that Stanton was traded at all. On our roster, that *is* Bogaerts, however you want to rationalize that it isn't. They aren't interested in "fair value" if "fair value" is 12-18 months away from big league time because 12-18 months of empty stadiums will be the direct result of that kind of trade.

 

So from Florida's perspective, looking at things through the window of their front office, value isn't the only consideration -- they want specific results from the trade. Bogaerts happens to fill that demand in a way no one else they can ask us for will do, and from this team with this extended roster, they will ask for or accept no one else other than Xander Bogaerts headlining a deal for Giancarlo Stanton, you can take that to the bank SFF. If you're not prepared to part with exactly Bogaerts, and no one other than Bogaerts, headlining the trade for Stanton, the Giancarlo Stanton pipe dream is exactly that. The Marlins have too little reason to accept the bag-o-goodies package and too much need for a headline guy for me to think any other creative/clever offer package gets it done this time.

Edited September 25, 2013 by Dojji

[Palodios]

Then Florida hangs up and works on an extension with Stanton, or gets onto the phone with someone who's actually willing to pay what it actually takes to bring in Giancarlo Stanton. The Marlins are not in a position where they have to accept the least awful deal at the moment, they aren't going to give an inch because they don't need to, so why make deal proposals as if they might or should?

 

Florida has little to no interest in Doubront since he's burnt some years. They want that first year high profile guy they can sell as a replacement for Stanton. that's Bogaerts.

 

James Shields cost Wil Myers from the Rays despite being near the end of his deal and not exactly being Felix Hernandez, do you really think the Marlins are going to take less value than Wil Myers for Giancarlo Stanton? Really, do you actually think that?

 

Prince Felix very well might be one of the Red Sox's best trade chips right now. He's a strong lefthander who has just about proven that he's a #3 on most teams. How many starts in a row did he go without giving up more than 3 runs? 20 something? If he could come into Spring Training in shape, he'd be a beast in the NL. Did I mention he's a 25 year old with 4 more years of control?

[Dojji]

Prince Felix very well might be one of the Red Sox's best trade chips right now. He's a strong lefthander who has just about proven that he's a #3 on most teams. How many starts in a row did he go without giving up more than 3 runs? 20 something? If he could come into Spring Training in shape, he'd be a beast in the NL. Did I mention he's a 25 year old with 4 more years of control?

 

For any team other than the Marlins, I'd agree with you, but the Marlins are a shoestring budget operation and they don't like paying for players. They want that guy who they can start the clock on. That's what they've traded for every chance they get for as long as the current owner has owned the team, so while Loria's in charge down in Miami you know that's coming when you discuss a trade with the Marlins. At least you do if you've been paying attention.

 

If we were doing a deal with any of the 27 other teams we'd actually trade with, you'd be exactly right, but not the Marlins.

 

Add that to the fact that for PR purposes they need a headliner coming back, someone they can immediately sell as their new face of the franchise, and the conclusion that the Marlins would demand Bogaerts or no deal, becomes inescapable.

Edited September 25, 2013 by Dojji