Mike Napoli performance thread.

[Dojji]

I think you had better do a search on Abreu ... Granted that he has not played one game in MLB but his upside is off the charts. No MLB team is going to show their cards with respect to Abreu but most wish that they were in Boston's shoes.

We can talk all day about Napoli but Napoli is not going to take the same contact that he had this season. He has done enough good things and any QO will not be incentive based like this 2013 contract. Sox will sign Abreu and that leaves Napoli off the team.

 

His numbers are off the charts yes, but there's legit concerns in scouting circles about Abreu's batspeed, which would make him a high power, high patience, ???? contact hitter. Exactly what Napoli is.

[mvp 78]

Do you think that Boston will need to pay more on their bullpen than they paid this season? Some pen money is coming off the books but that money will still be used for the same purpose. Dempster will most likely be dealt to a NL team and Boston will gladly eat some of his contract. Boston has some arms in the Minors that could be used in the pen next season at no cost at all. I think that financially the club is in great shape with respect to staying under the cap. Peavy will be back next year but that should do it for his salary. Lester is a big question mark and a lot depends on what he does this post season and next season but word is that he has a good relationship with Farrell. I think that the Sox future has never looked brighter.

 

I'd keep Dempster as the #6 guy. Right now, none of the young arms have showed much of an ability to start in 2014. 2015 is a more likely option for some of the better non RDLR and Webster arms.

[Orange Juiced]

His numbers are off the charts yes, but there's legit concerns in scouting circles about Abreu's batspeed, which would make him a high power, high patience, ???? contact hitter. Exactly what Napoli is.

 

But with 40-hr power, not 25-hr power. Big difference. Plus, he doesn't have a bad hip, and he's 5 years younger. And on a per-year basis, he'll almost certainly cost a lot less. (well, less than a qualifying offer, anyway)

[marklmw]

I'd keep Dempster as the #6 guy. Right now, none of the young arms have showed much of an ability to start in 2014. 2015 is a more likely option for some of the better non RDLR and Webster arms.

Don't rule out Boston from the Tanaka sweepstakes. Should they land Tanaka at approx. 9M per surely Dempster will be dealt. I think Boston is in good shape with respect to the Salary Cap.

[seabeachfred]

Us older fans seem to place a lot more importance on a Sox player's performance against the Yanks. Over the years that has often been used by old-school type Sox fans as a measure of a Red Sox player's ability to perform under pressure or 'under the bright lights'. Younger fans don't buy into that stuff as much.

 

Well it goes even farther back for me Bellhorn, long before I became a Red Sox fan. As you know I lived my first 14 years in Queens before our family began the trek to California (59 years tomorrow). Back then I had to endure the same old s*** almost every fall......The Yankees beat the Dodgers to win the World Series, like in '47 '49, '52.'53. It got freaking old and when I joined you guys in 2000 I was already a fervent Yankee hater. To me any Red Sox who has terrific success against the Yankees is someone who is pretty effective against other teams as well. The pressure Red Sox players feel when they play the Yanks has to be enormous because of their past history and because of the desire our guys have to beat the s*** out of them. I think the young guys here will get that in them as the years roll on by----unless suddenly the New Yorkers hit the skids for a long dry spell and wouldn't that be a real hoot ?

[SCM33]

I prematurely declared that he was done when I created this thread.

 

He has finished the year nice, and I would like to see him return......but I doubt he will. He will want a bigger, longer contract and the Sox f***ed around with him in negotiations this past offseason.

[a700hitter]

I prematurely declared that he was done when I created this thread.

 

He has finished the year nice, and I would like to see him return......but I doubt he will. He will want a bigger, longer contract and the Sox f***ed around with him in negotiations this past offseason.

I think that we should be able to sign him for a reasonable contract. He is tainted by the medical report on his hip, and I can't see teams giving him a long term guaranteed contract when he has that condition.

[Bellhorn04]

I prematurely declared that he was done when I created this thread.

 

He has finished the year nice, and I would like to see him return......but I doubt he will. He will want a bigger, longer contract and the Sox f***ed around with him in negotiations this past offseason.

 

Do you disapprove of the way they handled his medical issues? Most people seem to think they handled it correctly.

[sk7326]

I prematurely declared that he was done when I created this thread.

 

He has finished the year nice, and I would like to see him return......but I doubt he will. He will want a bigger, longer contract and the Sox f***ed around with him in negotiations this past offseason.

 

He can "want" anything. But the market probably won't go for it. That said, there is a ton of money out there chasing a relatively thin group of 1B (and he is the best of those) - there will be more money for Napoli than anybody thinks. In terms of years, he is probably not going to get a long deal. At the same time, could a team end up shattering what Boston would be willing to guarantee? That is definitely possible.

[a700hitter]

He can "want" anything. But the market probably won't go for it. That said, there is a ton of money out there chasing a relatively thin group of 1B (and he is the best of those) - there will be more money for Napoli than anybody thinks. In terms of years, he is probably not going to get a long deal. At the same time, could a team end up shattering what Boston would be willing to guarantee? That is definitely possible.

I don't think the crop of first baseman is especially thin. Napoli, Kendrys Morales and Abreu is a decent field.

[sk7326]

I don't think the crop of first baseman is especially thin. Napoli, Kendrys Morales and Abreu is a decent field.

 

All interesting, all major red flags ... 2009 Albert Pujols ain't walkin through that door. Doesn't really change the thesis - Napoli has been much better than Morales this season, though Morales has a 2 year age advantage. Abreu has the most upside but he's already as old as Cespedes, lacks the elite athleticism of Cespedes/Puig and has questions about bat speed. Napoli should be rewarded well, if not with job security at least a higher base salary for sure.

[SCM33]

Do you disapprove of the way they handled his medical issues? Most people seem to think they handled it correctly.

 

I don't, but he might...and thats the point I was making.

[sk7326]

I don't, but he might...and thats the point I was making.

 

I don't think it was that bitter ... it's not like he walked from the negotiations. And surely another suitor could have dug up a modest guarantee ... there was a job opening here, and a team with a ton of upside despite the 69-93.

[marklmw]

I don't think it was that bitter ... it's not like he walked from the negotiations. And surely another suitor could have dug up a modest guarantee ... there was a job opening here, and a team with a ton of upside despite the 69-93.

I think at the end of the day Napoli will get his 13M for 2013. Not much to be angry about really.

[seabeachfred]

I think at the end of the day Napoli will get his 13M for 2013. Not much to be angry about really.

 

I'm kind of surprised that there are many of think the Red Sox should kiss Napoli off after this season. I don't. Yes, he strikes out a hell of a lot to suit me but he hits with power, drives in runs, has played a pretty good first base, has been a leader in the clubhouse, had fit it very well with his teammates and kills the Yankees. To me that's a lot to like. He also brings a fire to the team, not loud boisterous banter, but a fierce determination to succeed. I think we need him back.

[Behindenemylines]

If he continues his hot streak into October I think giving him the last two years of the original contract at $13 million is in the cards. Nap has said several times he loves playing here. He has put up big numbers against the $panks as well so that is a plus.

[marklmw]

I'm kind of surprised that there are many of think the Red Sox should kiss Napoli off after this season. I don't. Yes, he strikes out a hell of a lot to suit me but he hits with power, drives in runs, has played a pretty good first base, has been a leader in the clubhouse, had fit it very well with his teammates and kills the Yankees. To me that's a lot to like. He also brings a fire to the team, not loud boisterous banter, but a fierce determination to succeed. I think we need him back.

 

A lot depends on Abreu. Abreu is younger and probably healthier. Some are projecting 60m / 6. so better value than Napoli as well. If the Sox go with an infield of Abreu, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Salty with an OF of Victorino, Ellsbury, Nava with Gomes and Carp coming off the pine are they going to miss Napoli? There is no way to predict ... Napoli's health could hold up or not ... Abreu might be over-hyped and not able to hit MLB pitching or he could be the steal of the decade and bash 40 HRs with a .295 average and .380 OBP. If Abreu does the later then Napoli will be a fond memory. BTW ... I think Bogaerts will hit .280+ with 20 HR's next season as the full time SS and Middlebrooks will better his numbers for this season. Scoring runs will not be a problem for next years team.

[marklmw]

If he continues his hot streak into October I think giving him the last two years of the original contract at $13 million is in the cards. Nap has said several times he loves playing here. He has put up big numbers against the $panks as well so that is a plus.

The Sox will probably offer Napoli a 2 years deal similar to his 2013 season contract. Base of 5 million with incentives if they do not go after Abreu. Nothing has changed from when the Sox signed Napoli. His career OPS is .855 and his OPS for 2013 is .835. Napoli's numbers for September are crazy with an OPS of 1.260. 15 BB's to 16 SO's. I doubt that the Sox will sign Napoli to a 26M/2 guaranteed contract.

[User Name]

A lot depends on Abreu. Abreu is younger and probably healthier. Some are projecting 60m / 6. so better value than Napoli as well. If the Sox go with an infield of Abreu, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Salty with an OF of Victorino, Ellsbury, Nava with Gomes and Carp coming off the pine are they going to miss Napoli? There is no way to predict ... Napoli's health could hold up or not ... Abreu might be over-hyped and not able to hit MLB pitching or he could be the steal of the decade and bash 40 HRs with a .295 average and .380 OBP. If Abreu does the later then Napoli will be a fond memory. BTW ... I think Bogaerts will hit .280+ with 20 HR's next season as the full time SS and Middlebrooks will better his numbers for this season. Scoring runs will not be a problem for next years team.

 

How do you know that Abreu at 60/6 is a better value than Napoli? He has taken zero, ZERO mlb AB's. You can't project what he's gonna do at the MLB level, so you don't know what his actual value is.

[Palodios]

Interesting development -- Middlebrooks is playing 1B tonight at Fenway. I can definitely see the Red Sox trying to get Napoli on another one year deal and allow the time for WMB to transition to the position, and for the rest of the infield prospects to move up the system.

[marklmw]

How do you know that Abreu at 60/6 is a better value than Napoli? He has taken zero, ZERO mlb AB's. You can't project what he's gonna do at the MLB level, so you don't know what his actual value is.

 

I clearly stated that no one but God knows what either player will do next season or any season thereafter. Based on what I have read they are projecting 60M / 6 for Abreu ... if compared to Napoli at 13m and should Abreu produce at Napoli's level then Abreu would be a better value. Also if Abreu signs for 6 years then clearly a better value. One thing that you are missing on Abreu is that it is because of the fact that he has not hit major league pitching that he can be signed for at 60M / 6. Obviously if he had produced his numbers in the majors he would go for 20M per.

[mvp 78]

And the risk that he can't hit MLB pitching...

[Orange Juiced]

And the risk that he can't hit MLB pitching...

 

Yep, but for a team with the Sox' resources, a 6/60 deal really isn't crippling. It's not ideal, but the relatively low AAV means you could eat it if you had to.

[User Name]

I clearly stated that no one but God knows what either player will do next season or any season thereafter. Based on what I have read they are projecting 60M / 6 for Abreu ... if compared to Napoli at 13m and should Abreu produce at Napoli's level then Abreu would be a better value. Also if Abreu signs for 6 years then clearly a better value. One thing that you are missing on Abreu is that it is because of the fact that he has not hit major league pitching that he can be signed for at 60M / 6. Obviously if he had produced his numbers in the majors he would go for 20M per.

 

But he hasn't, so he's not a good bet at 10 per. As MVP said, the possibility that he doesn't adjust to MLB pitching is real enough where comparing him to the real, quantifiable MLB production brought to the table by Napoli is not a good idea.

[marklmw]

But he hasn't, so he's not a good bet at 10 per. As MVP said, the possibility that he doesn't adjust to MLB pitching is real enough where comparing him to the real, quantifiable MLB production brought to the table by Napoli is not a good idea.

 

The decision on Abreu is not mine to make .... we will see what BC does. If Abreu is not in his plans then the Sox will resign Napoli but I think it a stretch if they offer him 13M per guaranteed money.

[Palodios]

Napoli has been had a .921 OPS since the All-Star break. Who is to say that maybe he just took some time to adjust to the park and his new surroundings. If he can hit that well going forward, what better do you think you'll find in Abreu?

[SoxSport]

I see they are playing Middlebrooks at 1B tonite. I'm not sold on him to replace Napoli, who they figure will be overpriced on the open market. MBrooks still has some plate discipline issues.

[Dojji]

Middlebrooks is not currently a solution at 1B. I'd honestly rather have Nava there. Sure, nava has no power, but you have to be able to win the at bat before power even comes into play, and Middlebrooks' grasp of that fact is profoundly limited.

[User Name]

Nava as the regular 1B? LOL.

[Beaneater]

Nava as the regular 1B? LOL.

 

We'd have the shortest right side of the infield in baseball history. It'd be worth it just for that.