Mike Napoli performance thread.

[dupree]

Im on the side of the fence of bringing Ells back. And i believe that the FO is on that side as well. Id say John Henry throws some extra money out there to retain him. This offseason will be interesting to say the least. CF, 1B, SS and some bullpen help wil be big decisions that Big Ben will have to work his magic on. I hope the Sox win it all this year and that Ben dont blow the team up after this year. If it aint broke dont fix it. And at this point in time we are the best team in baseball and hopefully we get rewarded with a title. And can go on a streak of titles for years to come.

[Dojji]

Well ... Orioles did it with Machado more or less.

 

The Orioles are not a team that can give themselves options the way we can. They're not a poor team, but they're not one of the top 5 markets in the game, and they have to gamble occasionally as a result. Good for them for getting their player development back in gear after a long period of ineptitude but I'm sure that given a choice they would want their rookies competing with established talent for jobs too.

 

A lot of it has to do with a FOs evaluation of the guy. What is Bogaerts' worst outcome for 2014 barring injury? That he becomes a drooling vegetable or that he curls up in the fetal position on the diamond when he hits an 0 for 17? If that's the case - then yeah you have to look into contingencies. If it's just a matter of enduring some .240/.300/.370 while he works at it - that is a different deal. I can live with the latter. The one thing you need for prospects to develop is reps ... either at AAA or the Show. If you choose the latter, key is the organization being strong and not letting the various Whiner Line contributors force their thinking.

 

The worst case scenario is always season/career ending injury. That's not the issue. The issue is how best to develop the talent this player has. And I've always felt that gift-wrapping a prospect a big league position invites that player to become complacent, while forcing them to compete for and win the job, even if the competition is just a Joe Average guy, forces them to develop better work habits and stay on top of their game a bit longer so as to outmuscle the competition, which helps them when the competition has moved on to greener pastures.

 

I mean for chrissake we're talking about a 21 year old kid. We just saw what happened (or we Bruins fans did) when the team gave Tyler Seguin and Phil Kessel jobs and top billing right out of the chute, it was exciting for awhile but character issues crept in and it ended badly. Meanwhile Tuukka Rask was phenomenal after finally getting a real chance to be the starter, and carried the team as far as a goaltender possibly can. That's hardly without its parallels in baseball, so I'm not anxious to forget those lessons with another top 21 year old on the steam tray and ready to serve.

 

Now certainly there's prospects that would succeed without that kind of forced competition, players with the character and makeup to work hard and succeed regardless of environment. But none of them have any problem succeeding AGAINST that kind of competition, and we've seen a few of the other kind in Boston as well. I just don't see where the gain in taking chances is.

 

Veteran help is never a bad thing - certainly not doubting that. Though both Bogaerts and Bradley have shown legitimate reasons to be optimistic about their prospects for next season.

 

And if you keep those veterans around and force the kids to learn their lessons and work hard to keep playing, the legitimate reasons for optimism will be even more legitimate.

Edited September 12, 2013 by Dojji

[rjortiz]

XB is still only 20 years old. We need to see how he does in the postseason, but it might be worthwhile to let him marinate in the minors in 2014 and push his arbitration clock back a year. If Middlebrooks is ineffective, Drew/Pedroia gets hurt, or if their 1B plan doesn't pan out, they will have a very good depth option.

 

I am also not convinced that Drew is going to want to be a backup plan in 2014, even if it is a 14 million check in his pocket. Boras will probably see this offseason as the last chance for Drew to hit it big. He'll be 31 next March, and if he loses playing time to injury or being bumped out of the lineup, he probably won't ever see a multi-year deal again, nevermind an 8 figure deal again.

 

The reason why this year worked was because BC made smart, flexible deals that built depth. If Drew takes the QO it will be exactly that.

 

Signing a depth option for $14 million would be unprecedented for this organization. Drew would also be an inflexible asset, because he can't be traded until June.

 

You keep bringing up the point that we should offer Drew a contract, because he won't accept an offer from the Red Sox. That doesn't equate a demand rise from other teams. Some team is still going to want to forfeit a draft pick for him.

[Dojji]

Let's be clear: Drew wouldn't be a "depth option" unless you're making the very mistake I was sighing about upthread.

 

Penning Bogaerts in as next year's starting SS now is premature. Even if it turns out that he not only cracks the roster, he takes over SS by storm, and makes the All Star team and is a WS MVP, it's still premature from this far out. I have little doubt about his viability longterm as a SS option. And he's probably going to dominate right out of the box. It's the PRESUMPTION that he's going to do so I'd rather not see made, even if it turns out that way in the end (which it very well could, I hasten to repeat).

Edited September 12, 2013 by Dojji

[sk7326]

XB is still only 20 years old. We need to see how he does in the postseason, but it might be worthwhile to let him marinate in the minors in 2014 and push his arbitration clock back a year. If Middlebrooks is ineffective, Drew/Pedroia gets hurt, or if their 1B plan doesn't pan out, they will have a very good depth option.

 

I am also not convinced that Drew is going to want to be a backup plan in 2014, even if it is a 14 million check in his pocket. Boras will probably see this offseason as the last chance for Drew to hit it big. He'll be 31 next March, and if he loses playing time to injury or being bumped out of the lineup, he probably won't ever see a multi-year deal again, nevermind an 8 figure deal again.

 

The reason why this year worked was because BC made smart, flexible deals that built depth. If Drew takes the QO it will be exactly that.

 

If Drew gets $14M this year and a fair deal next season (say 3/30 or whatever) ... he has made it bigger than he would have in any other context. For him taking the QO is the no-brainer. I am pretty sure the Red Sox will not offer him one for that very reason - and I wouldn't even be surprised if there was an off the books agreement to not extend him one. In a sense (for this negotiation) the QO is off the table, Drew would never decline it due to its impact on his ability to find work and the Red Sox probably won't offer it because it would tie up nearly 10% of their payroll in a guy without a guaranteed starting job.

[Orange Juiced]

By all accounts, Bogaerts projects to be much better than Drew. The Red Sox, obviously, hope Bogaerts is everything they hope he can be. So you don't pay a guy $14 million and then hope he's your backup.

[sk7326]

The Seguin and Kessel comparisons are tempting - at the same time they were guaranteed jobs with the big club from when they were drafted (and let's be honest - both had solid runs here). Nobody has handed Bogaerts anything - he has consistently outperformed people a lot older than he is. It has not happened at the major league level because - well, the Red Sox are in a different position in a September when they have the AL's best record. He is 21, but he did not conquer 2 levels this year on luck. He has had forced competition this entire season - that is the entire genesis of his rise in the system.

 

Some veteran complement makes sense - but there is nothing wrong with planning for him to win the job. He has done nothing to contradict that.

[rjortiz]

The Drew situation reminds me a bit of the Beltre situation. I could see us regretting not having him on the roster, and I could see him hurting us playing for the Yankees. I'm not sure they will put a lot of faith in Jeter being their everyday ss next year.

 

Would we have to over pay for Drew a bit, probably. But I would guess an infield of...

 

Middlebrooks 1b

Pedroia 2b

Drew ss

XBogs 3b

 

......would in total be a pretty reasonably priced infield.

 

There's been many attempts to find an equivalency for this situation. There isn't a precedent to really base this on. The Red Sox have never made a decision that can be compared to the one they face in 2014. Beltre is a borderline HOF candidate. He had a WAR of 6.6 in 2010, and had a track record of health, and solid performances. He also had an almost 10 WAR season, so his potential had to be considered substantially higher than Drew's. He got a 5/70 offer from the Rangers, which would have shattered the 2014 QO. The decision to let Beltre walk was made when they landed Adrian Gonzalez. There wasn't a superstar prospect pushing him out. The situations are different by a huge margin.

 

If there's a QO, I don't think you have to worry about Drew in the Bronx, and even without one the Yankees are going to be up against the tax. I wrote about their situation in the Yankees forum. Basically, they are going to have $53 million to fill 3B, DH, and three spots in the rotation. That assumes they don't find a caddy for Jeter, go with Stewart at catcher, and fill all of their holes internally. A qualifying offer forces them to bid at least 3/30, maybe 2/24. If they do that, that's going to be $19 to $21 million for two SS's. They also still have to fill those other gaping holes on the roster. I really hope they sign Drew. It would guarantee that they have an extremely weak rotation, and major holes at 3B, C, RF, probably DH, and the bullpen. They'd also have a pretty weak bench with little depth. A few injuries to starting players, and they plummet quickly.

 

I've seen the sign Drew and move the others option pretty often. They'll probably have around $40 million to fill 1B, C, CF, and SS. Drew at the QO would eat $14 million of that space. I'm assuming WMB moves to 1B, so Napoli is gone. It also signals the end for Ellsbury. They could still sign McCann, but he's probably it. Also, need a backup INF. There's probable declines at 1B, RF, CF, and DH. If they don't sign McCann, Saltalamacchia is a regression candidate. The only position they actually looks better is Bogaerts at 3B, because WMB was terrible in the first half. Drew has been at 1.7, -0.7, and 2.3 WAR the last three years. He's a year older, and not a guarantee to stay healthy. A three win season is probably too optimistic. They should be using this money to improve the team in 2014. Drew isn't an upgrade. $14 million is not a good investment.

 

One more thing to consider is the long term position of Bogaerts. If he plays a full year at 3B in the majors, he's probably never moving back to SS.

Edited September 12, 2013 by rjortiz

[rjortiz]

I agree with you in having a clear cut plan. What i dont agree with is letting Drew walk. A QO may be an overpay but i like the idea of Bogaerts being a utility infielder and giving people regular days off. Plus without Drew the team looks a lil too righthanded. An injury to XB far a long period and having to go out and get another SS would be going backwards. Just let the FO sign Drew and let XB take it away from him and then have a team with a lot of infield depth if anyone goes down. Id rather have too much depth anyday, injuries do happen and a strong infield is a big priority.

 

Bogaerts is not going to be a utility infielder. He either plays everyday, or he goes back to Pawtucket. How many AB's would he get as the utility player anyway? He can only play SS and 3B. Also, you're not even suggesting they move WMB to 1B. In your scenario, they would need to fill a hole at 1B after signing Drew. That would leave $26 million for a C, 1B, and CF.

[Orange Juiced]

They aren't going to put Middlebrooks at 1b next year, unless it's an emergency. His bat and glove play better at 3b, and 1b is a MUCH easier position to fill than 3b is. Signing Drew so that they move Bogaerts to 3b and Middlebrooks to 1b, when they can just sign Abreu for less money than Drew (and he's potentially a MUCH better offensive player than Drew is), and thus keep Bogaerts and Middlebrooks at their natural positions, would be irresponsible.

 

Unless they don't think Middlebrooks is ever going to be a 3b and/or that Bogaerts really is a 3b and not a SS. Then, and only then, would it make some sense.

[Orange Juiced]

The best solution that I can see to maximize resources is this:

 

1b - Abreu

2b - Pedroia

3b - Middlebrooks

SS - Bogaerts

 

Offer Drew a QO with the understanding that he'll be the backup going into the season. If he signs it, then he does so understanding that he's the backup. Ok, he'd be an expensive backup, but at least he agrees to that up front. If he doesn't sign it then the Sox get draft pick compensation.

 

Based on that, I'd assume that Drew would *not* sign the QO, making him a free agent. He wouldn't be back, the Sox would get draft compensation, but also wouldn't have to shell out $14 million for him. Abreu gets $10 million a year, meaning this infield is $4 million cheaper than it would be with WMB at 1b, Drew at SS, and Bogaerts at 3b. That $4 million can get you a good reliever, or can go into the Ellsbury fund.

 

Not only would it be cheaper, it would have the potential to be MUCH better offensively. Because Abreu projects to be a 30+ homer, .850 ops kind of guy. Drew can't sniff that.

[marklmw]

The Sox have will have an interesting situation when we win the WS this year. Naturally one wants to keep the same team in tact but this would be a big mistake for a number of reasons. Although Napoli is hitting well as of late and he can very well have an amazing post season but would you take him when you have a very good shot at Abreu from Cuba? If his birth certificate is correct you have a player in Abreu who is younger, healthier, and has more upside than Napoli. Signing Abreu more or less will end the discussions about Middlebrooks playing first or even platooning the 1st base position with Carp. Middlebrooks has been hot since returning to the team and seems to have figured things out. If Middlebrooks continues on this way I see him as the everyday 3B next season. With Abreu and a hitting Middlebrooks the Sox should be a plus to this years very prolific run scoring team. If the Sox spend money on Abreu and it will cost a bit to sign him but not much more than Drew and perhaps less than Napoli. I think that the Sox will part ways with Drew and I agree that they probably will not make a qualifying offer to him. From every indication it appears that Bogaerts will be ready to take over at short. What an infield and team. Sign Salty, and Ellsbury, Carp, Gomes, Nava will keep the team rested. Sox will be good for many years to come. Edited September 12, 2013 by marklmw

[rjortiz]

Ok... if the money is not used on Drew where do you use it?

 

On a legitimate upgrade. They don't have to use the money on a free agent. They can fit a good player with a high salary on a trade. Stanton? Carlos Gonzalez? McCann would be an upgrade. The Cuban kid has a massive potential. He would be a better investment than Drew.

 

In the post you quoted, i'm talking about a WMB-Pedroia-Drew-Bogaerts infield.

 

But if i don't bring back Drew, i bring back Napoli or try to upgrade 1B while swapping out Ellsbury for Choo.

 

They could definitely do both if Drew walks. Are you talking about Choo in RF, and Victorino in CF? I like it more than signing Drew, but I'm not 100% on board with signing a bad defense, soon to be 32 year old to a likely 5/85 contract. I'd rather explore some trade candidates first.

 

Resign Ells instead of Replace him.

 

Better idea than Drew, because at least there's some short-term value, but not a long term fan of Ellsbury. Baserunning and defense first CF's don't age well. I could be convinced if someone showed me that the short term gain was enough to offset the long term decline. Considering the Red Sox have a open title window, I think that argument could be made.

 

I like the idea of bringing Napoli back. But im not as big of fan of Choo. Rather have a platoon of Bradley/Nava/Gomes in LF than spending the money on Choo. With the team resigning Ells to man CF. And Vic in RF.

 

Essentially, Bradley is your backup CF/RF. He only gets regular playing time if Ellsbury or Victorino go down. One of the reasons, I'm open to Ellsbury extension is that they could use Bradley as a trade chip. He could fetch something very useful in return.

 

If you don't want to sign Drew, then go after Peralta. What you absolutely do not do is turn a rookie loose at shortstop without a valid Plan B. That's not how you develop a prospect.

 

I suggested this awhile back. No disagreements here. The problem is what is Peralta going to get, and since the Tigers are almost guaranteed to not offer a QO, there are probably some teams that are going to pursue him instead of Drew. Why the arguments about John Valentin earlier? Have you changed your mind about Drew being worth 3/45? The disagreement started from there, and you warned us not to pencil Bogaerts in as the starting SS. I think everyone for letting Drew walk had suggested signing a utility veteran.

 

Victorino can serve that job for Bradley, we're well set up for Ellsbury's departure really, even if I'd definitely rather not see him go.

 

If all we have at short is Bogaerts and a utility man, we're inviting trouble. I don't think he'll implode like Middlebrooks did this year, but if you don't plan as if it might happen, you're inviting a world of hurt down on your head if it does.

 

I actually suspect that if we let Drew go he'll wind up playing for the Yankees. A-Rod is too old to move back to SS and Jeter is probably retiring either this offseason or next, and in either case, the Yankees can't count on him to take the field at any given time. In other words, they need a shortstop.

 

Who plays RF is Bradley flops?

 

Again, I looked at the Yankee payroll for 2014. They have $53 million dollars for DH, 3B, and three rotation spots. That's if they don't upgrade at C, RF, the bench, or the bullpen. This also assumes Rodriguez misses the whole year. You mentioned him in your post. If he isn't suspended they have $26 million for their rotation, DH, and the rest of their holes. Drew is not going to New York, unless they exceed the luxury tax.

 

According to Cot's, here is the list of potential free agent SS after this season:

 

Alfredo Amezaga

Clint Barmes

Willie Bloomquist

Jamey Carroll *

Alexi Casilla *

Stephen Drew

Yunel Escobar *

Rafael Furcal

Alex Gonzalez

Cesar Izturis

Derek Jeter *

John McDonald

Jhonny Peralta

Brendan Ryan

 

*Contract contains an option for 2014.

 

I don't know that Peralta would sign to be a backup. Someone will likely want him as a starter. You'd need someone like Jamey Carroll most likely.

 

They can always explore a trade for a utility infielder. They don't cost a substantial amount of talent to land, especially if they are on rebuilding teams.

[rjortiz]

The best solution that I can see to maximize resources is this:

 

1b - Abreu

2b - Pedroia

3b - Middlebrooks

SS - Bogaerts

 

Offer Drew a QO with the understanding that he'll be the backup going into the season. If he signs it, then he does so understanding that he's the backup. Ok, he'd be an expensive backup, but at least he agrees to that up front. If he doesn't sign it then the Sox get draft pick compensation.

 

Based on that, I'd assume that Drew would *not* sign the QO, making him a free agent. He wouldn't be back, the Sox would get draft compensation, but also wouldn't have to shell out $14 million for him. Abreu gets $10 million a year, meaning this infield is $4 million cheaper than it would be with WMB at 1b, Drew at SS, and Bogaerts at 3b. That $4 million can get you a good reliever, or can go into the Ellsbury fund.

 

Not only would it be cheaper, it would have the potential to be MUCH better offensively. Because Abreu projects to be a 30+ homer, .850 ops kind of guy. Drew can't sniff that.

 

You're making the same mistake other people are. The Red Sox can tell him that he's going to be the backup when they offer the $14 million. He's still going to take it if he doesn't find any good offers from another team. Just because he won't sign with the Red Sox, doesn't mean that another team is guaranteed to sign him. Who are these teams that are going to outbid the $14 million offer on the table, plus surrender the draft pick? Will the people in the Drew QO camp for a draft pick please tell me who these teams are? Maybe if he becomes so cheap that he's impossible to pass on. Probably like 1/6 could prompt some teams to make a bid, but then he would fire his agent for telling him to decline the QO.

 

Also, Drew eats up $14 million from the budget of $40 million. Abreu is not going to be cheaper than Drew. He's a monster in Cuba with better numbers than Puig and Cespedes. Teams have also watch those two play very well in MLB. He's going to get a long term contract, probably 5 years, and at least $10 million AAV. He's not going to be cheap, and they are several teams that will want to place a bid for him. This is the kind of player you would offer a QO to. A highly regarded talent with a clearly defined market of interested teams. Drew is above-average, injury prone, in his decline years, and doesn't look likely to have a lot of demand. Unless you want him back as the SS, there's no reason to sign him to a QO.

[marklmw]

The best solution that I can see to maximize resources is this:

 

1b - Abreu

2b - Pedroia

3b - Middlebrooks

SS - Bogaerts

 

Offer Drew a QO with the understanding that he'll be the backup going into the season. If he signs it, then he does so understanding that he's the backup. Ok, he'd be an expensive backup, but at least he agrees to that up front. If he doesn't sign it then the Sox get draft pick compensation.

 

Based on that, I'd assume that Drew would *not* sign the QO, making him a free agent. He wouldn't be back, the Sox would get draft compensation, but also wouldn't have to shell out $14 million for him. Abreu gets $10 million a year, meaning this infield is $4 million cheaper than it would be with WMB at 1b, Drew at SS, and Bogaerts at 3b. That $4 million can get you a good reliever, or can go into the Ellsbury fund.

 

Not only would it be cheaper, it would have the potential to be MUCH better offensively. Because Abreu projects to be a 30+ homer, .850 ops kind of guy. Drew can't sniff that.

 

I read some place that Abreu projects to be .850 OPS as a floor. This puts him in elite company ..... top 20 players in the majors. The Sox are going to sign this guy.

[sk7326]

Of the three UFAs ... Napoli I think is a sure thing to get a QO. Drew is unlikely to me for the reason rj noted (he'll take it, and do you want that). Salty - on the surface no, but the sheer position scarcity at catcher makes it at least possible.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Of the three UFAs ... Napoli I think is a sure thing to get a QO. Drew is unlikely to me for the reason rj noted (he'll take it, and do you want that). Salty - on the surface no, but the sheer position scarcity at catcher makes it at least possible.

 

UFA does not exist in baseball. Get that football lingo out of here!!!

[rjortiz]

I read some place that Abreu projects to be .850 OPS as a floor. This puts him in elite company ..... top 20 players in the majors. The Sox are going to sign this guy.

 

A player that has never taken an at-bat in MLB does not have a floor of an .850 OPS. That projection is unbelievably optimistic. If that were true, I mean just his floor being a .850 OPS, then he would be commanding $20 million AAV. That's probably just a starting point.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Goodness.

 

Abreu, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks around the infield? Sounds like death to LHP. Would be able to then sign McCann and absorb his splits.

[marklmw]

Of the three UFAs ... Napoli I think is a sure thing to get a QO. Drew is unlikely to me for the reason rj noted (he'll take it, and do you want that). Salty - on the surface no, but the sheer position scarcity at catcher makes it at least possible.

 

All depends upon Abreu really. If the Sox sign him for 5 years then they are not going to give QO to Napoli or Drew. Sure it would be nice to pick-up some draft picks but the Sox could very well end up with expensive back-ups ... makes no sense. I think they will come to terms with Salty on a 3 year deal. I would have no problem with a 70m / 5 or 112m / 8 for Abreu.

Edited September 12, 2013 by marklmw

[sk7326]

All depends upon Abreu really. If the Sox sign him for 5 years then they are not going to give QO to Napoli or Drew. Sure it would be nice to pick-up some draft picks but the Sox could very well end up with expensive back-ups ... makes no sense. I think they will come to terms with Salty on a 3 year deal. I would have no problem with a 70m / 5 for to 112 / 8 for Abreu.

 

Napoli I think would be fine declining a QO. It's a calculated risk but he can get a reasonable 1-2 year deal for near that ... he has helped himself this year. After all you do have to pay his beard too!

[rjortiz]

Of the three UFAs ... Napoli I think is a sure thing to get a QO. Drew is unlikely to me for the reason rj noted (he'll take it, and do you want that). Salty - on the surface no, but the sheer position scarcity at catcher makes it at least possible.

 

I'd let Salty walk. He's a bad defender, bad against lefties, has a 30.8% K rate, a .360 BABIP, and a .322 OBP despite that lofty number. His power numbers are significantly down for last year. I could tolerate the K's if he was hitting some more balls out. Giving him $14 million for a year isn't a substantial overpay, but why should they overpay for a regression candidate? Might as well try for McCann. If that falls through, they can probably bring Saltalamacchia back for much less than $14 million. I really don't see a huge market for him either. Who could use a catcher? A's, Angels, White Sox, Yankees, Braves, Rangers, and Rays come to mind. Rays and A's won't outbid a QO, plus give up the draft pick. They'd probably be on him at 3/24, but if Salty has to consider those offers, he didn't get a QO. Angels are tapped out, with serious holes in their rotation, and the upgrade from Conger/Ianetta to Saltalamacchia isn't that substantial. The Braves are not big spenders, and the idea of them letting McCann walk only to pay around the same salary for Saltalmacchia is laughable. The White Sox are terrible, and face a pretty substantial rebuild. Saltalamacchia as a building block is a guaranteed way to lengthen that process. I really think the Yankees are going to be quiet this offseason. They have a lot of holes to fill, and spending a huge chunk on a above-average catcher at best is a waste of resources. Hopefully, they do it. The Rangers are probably the most likely, but they'll probably be after McCann first. I really can't see them offer the same AAV plus the pick for Saltalamacchia. When you think of $14 million players, Saltalamacchia doesn't come to mind. They should be offering these QO's to players that have a legitimate interest on the open market. They shouldn't praying that one or two suitors might get desperate and take him off our hands.

[rjortiz]

All depends upon Abreu really. If the Sox sign him for 5 years then they are not going to give QO to Napoli or Drew. Sure it would be nice to pick-up some draft picks but the Sox could very well end up with expensive back-ups ... makes no sense. I think they will come to terms with Salty on a 3 year deal. I would have no problem with a 70m / 5 or 112m / 8 for Abreu.

 

$112 million to a player that has never taken an MLB bat is a humongous risk. They did go $100 million for Dice-K, but only half counted toward the payroll, and the JPL is better than the Cuban league. I'd pass at that price.

 

Napoli I think would be fine declining a QO. It's a calculated risk but he can get a reasonable 1-2 year deal for near that ... he has helped himself this year. After all you do have to pay his beard too!

 

I think Napoli is different from Drew and Saltalamacchia, because there's not much downside if he accepts the offer. I really don't see a team going 2/28 for Napoli with draft pick compensation tied in. He has the hip issue and he's getting older. The QO might choke his value down enough for the Red Sox to go 2/20, or 2/22 and get him. He'll be this years Adam LaRoche if he gets an offer.

[Orange Juiced]

You're making the same mistake other people are. The Red Sox can tell him that he's going to be the backup when they offer the $14 million. He's still going to take it if he doesn't find any good offers from another team. Just because he won't sign with the Red Sox, doesn't mean that another team is guaranteed to sign him. Who are these teams that are going to outbid the $14 million offer on the table, plus surrender the draft pick? Will the people in the Drew QO camp for a draft pick please tell me who these teams are? Maybe if he becomes so cheap that he's impossible to pass on. Probably like 1/6 could prompt some teams to make a bid, but then he would fire his agent for telling him to decline the QO.

 

Also, Drew eats up $14 million from the budget of $40 million. Abreu is not going to be cheaper than Drew. He's a monster in Cuba with better numbers than Puig and Cespedes. Teams have also watch those two play very well in MLB. He's going to get a long term contract, probably 5 years, and at least $10 million AAV. He's not going to be cheap, and they are several teams that will want to place a bid for him. This is the kind of player you would offer a QO to. A highly regarded talent with a clearly defined market of interested teams. Drew is above-average, injury prone, in his decline years, and doesn't look likely to have a lot of demand. Unless you want him back as the SS, there's no reason to sign him to a QO.

 

$10 million a year is cheaper than $14 million a year, by my math. So yes, he'll be cheaper than Drew - obviously I meant on an annual basis, seeing as though Abreu would get a multi-year deal and Drew just the one year QO.

[sk7326]

I'd let Salty walk. He's a bad defender, bad against lefties, has a 30.8% K rate, a .360 BABIP, and a .322 OBP despite that lofty number. His power numbers are significantly down for last year. I could tolerate the K's if he was hitting some more balls out. Giving him $14 million for a year isn't a substantial overpay, but why should they overpay for a regression candidate? Might as well try for McCann. If that falls through, they can probably bring Saltalamacchia back for much less than $14 million. I really don't see a huge market for him either. Who could use a catcher? A's, Angels, White Sox, Yankees, Braves, Rangers, and Rays come to mind. Rays and A's won't outbid a QO, plus give up the draft pick. They'd probably be on him at 3/24, but if Salty has to consider those offers, he didn't get a QO. Angels are tapped out, with serious holes in their rotation, and the upgrade from Conger/Ianetta to Saltalamacchia isn't that substantial. The Braves are not big spenders, and the idea of them letting McCann walk only to pay around the same salary for Saltalmacchia is laughable. The White Sox are terrible, and face a pretty substantial rebuild. Saltalamacchia as a building block is a guaranteed way to lengthen that process. I really think the Yankees are going to be quiet this offseason. They have a lot of holes to fill, and spending a huge chunk on a above-average catcher at best is a waste of resources. Hopefully, they do it. The Rangers are probably the most likely, but they'll probably be after McCann first. I really can't see them offer the same AAV plus the pick for Saltalamacchia. When you think of $14 million players, Saltalamacchia doesn't come to mind. They should be offering these QO's to players that have a legitimate interest on the open market. They shouldn't praying that one or two suitors might get desperate and take him off our hands.

 

I am not a Salty fan - and I'd probably not extend him a QO. BUT, there are almost no competent catchers available for employment - and he is one of them. Would I pay $14M for 1 year of a legit starting catcher? The Red Sox can afford the overpay for a year while a guy like Swihart or somebody becomes more viable. I wouldn't call them insane for doing it. I also think they can negotiate a 3 year deal.

[Orange Juiced]

Goodness.

 

Abreu, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks around the infield? Sounds like death to LHP. Would be able to then sign McCann and absorb his splits.

 

Well, here's my proposed team for 2014:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/16627-Where-to-Spend-the-Money-Next-Year

 

Primary Lineup:

CF Ellsbury

RF Victorino

2b Pedroia

DH Ortiz

1b Abreu

C McCann

3b Middlebrooks

LF Bradley/Gomes

SS Bogaerts

 

That's a 1,000 run team.

[Palodios]

I am not a Salty fan - and I'd probably not extend him a QO. BUT, there are almost no competent catchers available for employment - and he is one of them. Would I pay $14M for 1 year of a legit starting catcher? The Red Sox can afford the overpay for a year while a guy like Swihart or somebody becomes more viable. I wouldn't call them insane for doing it. I also think they can negotiate a 3 year deal.

 

I am conflicted about Salty. If they can get McCann, I say do it. The problem with Salty is that he is only 28 years old. Catchers NEVER hit free agency that early. They usually take longer to reach the big leagues, and hit free agency in their early 30s, but their legs are already gone by then. Salty is a young and healthy catcher, and for some reason I think he might be able to get 3+ years.

 

The other factor is that Salty was shuffled around many times before giving the permanent catching job here. I think he may have some loyalty to the Red Sox for giving him a legitimate opportunity to become what he is today.

[rjortiz]

$10 million a year is cheaper than $14 million a year, by my math. So yes, he'll be cheaper than Drew - obviously I meant on an annual basis, seeing as though Abreu would get a multi-year deal and Drew just the one year QO.

 

I think 5/50 is the starting bid. A 26 year old free agent with prestigious power upside is going to attract a lot of interest. Baltimore, Washington, Texas, Boston, both NY teams, and even lower-middle market teams are going to have interest. He's the kind of player that you sign to a long term deal even if you're not an elite contender. I wouldn't be surprised to see 5/70 or 6/84 win the auction.

[mvp 78]

Well, here's my proposed team for 2014:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/16627-Where-to-Spend-the-Money-Next-Year

 

Primary Lineup:

CF Ellsbury

RF Victorino

2b Pedroia

DH Ortiz

1b Abreu

C McCann

3b Middlebrooks

LF Bradley/Gomes

SS Bogaerts

 

That's a 1,000 run team.

Only 1 team has done that since 1950.

[Palodios]

I think 5/50 is the starting bid. A 26 year old free agent with prestigious power upside is going to attract a lot of interest. Baltimore, Washington, Texas, Boston, both NY teams, and even lower-middle market teams are going to have interest. He's the kind of player that you sign to a long term deal even if you're not an elite contender. I wouldn't be surprised to see 5/70 or 6/84 win the auction.

 

How many of those teams have big name 1B already though? NYY has Tex, Orioles have Davis, Nationals have Laroche. The Tigers have Fielder, the Angels have Trumbo, the Dodgers have Gonzalez, the Cubs have Rizzo. I just don't think there are many teams looking for a 1B, and the ones that are probably can't bid that high.