Trade Deadline Predictions for the Sox

[Orange Juiced]

What I hope happens:

- Sox sign Miguel Gonzalez.

- Sox sign Brian Wilson.

- Sox call up Bogaerts to play 3b the rest of the season.

- Ross comes back healthy to back up Salty, who might be wearing down.

- September callups include: Cecchini, DeLaRosa, Webster, Brentz, and Bradley Jr., providing the Sox with a dynamic September bench.

 

What I think will happen:

- Sox will lose out on the Gonzalez sweepstakes. Well, this one has already happened.

- Sox will not sign Wilson. Dodgers got him.

- Sox will trade for a mediocre 3b like Michael Young. Thankfully I was wrong about this one.

- Sox will trade for a mediocre starting pitcher not named Jake Peavy. Ok, surprised, they not only got Peavy, they got him for what I consider to be a steal.

- Sox will trade for a couple of decent relievers, one of whom will pitch poorly. Got Brayan Villarreal in the Peavy deal. Not good this year and injured, but last year was tremendous for Detroit. Could be helpful, might amount to nothing. We'll see.

- Bogaerts might get called up for a cup of coffee in September. Well, it happened earlier than September, which is great, considering I wanted him here a while ago.

- Webster will be added to the roster in September.

Edited August 19, 2013 by Orange Juiced

[Standing Room]

 

Hmmmm

[SoxFanForsyth]

Honest Predictions:

 

1. The Sox trade for Jake Peavy, giving up Ranaudo, Brentz, and Mookie Betts (edited).

2. The Sox call up Rubby De La Rosa and put him in the bullpen.

3. Bogaerts gets called up on August 20th because Iglesias hits .176/.227/.252 from 7/26 - 8/14, continuing his downward spiral. Iglesias becomes the super utility guy.

4. The final series at Baltimore will decide both the fate of the Red Sox (in the hunt for the AL East champion), the Orioles (in the hunt for the 2nd WC slot), and the Rays (battling the Sox for the AL East crown). 2011 will NOT repeat itself.

[Orange Juiced]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]21[/ATTACH]

 

Hmmmm

 

I have no idea what this is supposed to mean.

[Standing Room]

I have no idea what this is supposed to mean.

 

Ith a complimunt.

 

WECLOME!

[BigPapi]

Honest Predictions:

 

1. The Sox trade for Jake Peavy, giving up Ranaudo, Brentz, and Mookie Betts (edited).

2. The Sox call up Rubby De La Rosa and put him in the bullpen.

3. Bogaerts gets called up on August 20th because Iglesias hits .176/.227/.252 from 7/26 - 8/14, continuing his downward spiral. Iglesias becomes the super utility guy.

4. The final series at Baltimore will decide both the fate of the Red Sox (in the hunt for the AL East champion), the Orioles (in the hunt for the 2nd WC slot), and the Rays (battling the Sox for the AL East crown). 2011 will NOT repeat itself.

 

 

Ya iggy isnt making good co tact at all. He got a dinky infield hit tonight, but hes looking like the kid at bat of last year.

[BigPapi]

a good right handed bat wouldnt hurt. Sox havent been good at all against lefties this season.

[italstallianion]

Cliff Lee will be traded by the deadline. Cuz f*** y'all that's why.

[RedSoxNC84]

Cuz f*** y'all that's why.

 

Best prediction ever.

[User Name]

I'd be thrilled with giving Brian Wilson a shot, but I'm probably being a homer as far as that goes because I'm a huge fan of his.

 

I can see us getting Peavy from the White Sox and I do think Bogaerts will be called up before the end of August. I like Iglesias a lot but I think he falls back down to earth, albeit slightly above what a lot of people expected he'd be batting.

[BigPapi]

I'd be thrilled with giving Brian Wilson a shot, but I'm probably being a homer as far as that goes because I'm a huge fan of his.

 

I can see us getting Peavy from the White Sox and I do think Bogaerts will be called up before the end of August. I like Iglesias a lot but I think he falls back down to earth, albeit slightly above what a lot of people expected he'd be batting.

 

 

 

 

 

Iggy is falling quickly. Over the past couple of series, the terrible pitches he has been swinging at are baffling. Pitchers are making adjustemnts too him and he needs too adjust soon or he should be replaced with bogaerts.

[User Name]

Iggy is falling quickly. Over the past couple of series, the terrible pitches he has been swinging at are baffling. Pitchers are making adjustemnts too him and he needs too adjust soon or he should be replaced with bogaerts.

 

Well, yeah, I suppose it doesn't look as bad average-wise given how high it was after his hot start.

 

I still want him on the team for sure though personally, he's just too valuable in the field and unless this hitting as of late is what we can come to expect, it may not be too much of a hindrance. I've seen a lot of people that don't think he's part of our future. I disagree.

[italstallianion]

I think he's only not part of our future if Bogaerts is slated to spend his prime years as a SS. I'd love a SS/3B combination of Iglesias/Bogaerts, with maybe Cecchini at 1B or something. I assume Middlebrooks would probably be traded at some point, maybe he can DH when Papi retires.

[BigPapi]

Well, yeah, I suppose it doesn't look as bad average-wise given how high it was after his hot start.

 

I still want him on the team for sure though personally, he's just too valuable in the field and unless

 

this hitting as of late is what we can come to expect, it may not be too much of a hindrance. I've seen a lot of people that don't think he's part of our future. I disagree.

 

 

True. His glove is so good, its kind of what larussa was saying about yadier molina about not caring what he hit cause of how good of defense he provided. But in yadiers case, he certaintly isnt a liability at the plate anymore.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Well, yeah, I suppose it doesn't look as bad average-wise given how high it was after his hot start.

 

I still want him on the team for sure though personally, he's just too valuable in the field and unless this hitting as of late is what we can come to expect, it may not be too much of a hindrance. I've seen a lot of people that don't think he's part of our future. I disagree.

 

 

Holy crap! How are you?

[sk7326]

Iggy is falling quickly. Over the past couple of series, the terrible pitches he has been swinging at are baffling. Pitchers are making adjustemnts too him and he needs too adjust soon or he should be replaced with bogaerts.

 

The BABIP fairly tale is ending. He has not shown an ability to hit at any level ... that said, if he could hit for more than 2-3 months, he could be a good solid SS. Elvis Andrus has made a career out of it. That said Boegarts is on his heels ... if Iglesias cannot hit as a rudimentary level he becomes a non-starter.

[jacksonianmarch]

Back to the topic, the sox have a dire need for another starter and pen help. Nathan has just jumped out as a player on the market, he might be a good find to close out games. In terms of starters, I have a feeling the sox have something up their sleeve, because without a top notch addition to the rotation, they aren't winning anything this yr

[SoxSport]

Iggy has been victimized by being constantly under a microscope, and by having to play out of position at 3B. The media is even counting how many infield hits he gets--not paying much attention about how he is using his speed to get on base. Hitting .400 , he was bound to have a cold spell. Normally it is something nobody would comment on, but this is a guy the media has said CAN'T HIT, and they are out to prove it.

 

Fortunately, the FO is not the media. They know he has shown enough to play SS next year. He could be another Visquel or Aparicio--who was a similar player. HOF guy, who Ted Williams always said was the best he saw. Ted would have liked Iggy.

[sk7326]

Iggy has been victimized by being constantly under a microscope, and by having to play out of position at 3B. The media is even counting how many infield hits he gets--not paying much attention about how he is using his speed to get on base. Hitting .400 , he was bound to have a cold spell. Normally it is something nobody would comment on, but this is a guy the media has said CAN'T HIT, and they are out to prove it.

 

Fortunately, the FO is not the media. They know he has shown enough to play SS next year. He could be another Visquel or Aparicio--who was a similar player. HOF guy, who Ted Williams always said was the best he saw. Ted would have liked Iggy.

 

Oh I don't think management is convinced at all. But you ride him as long as he performs. But his average was built on some crazy crazy luck and run counter to his performance at any other level of baseball. I hope he can hit well enough to justify carrying him (that threshold can be low) - and he has so far. He's not a guy the media say can't hit - he is a guy who has a rich history of not hitting. He has to show more to get to an Elvis Andrus level, let alone Aparicio.

[jacksonianmarch]

Iglesias needs to reach base over 30% of the time and hit at least .250 to be useable as a regular at SS. He's doing that this season, but his history shows he wont be doing that for long. His July is probably more indicative of his bat than anything else. I still think they take the added defense and run with it for now, but don't be surprised to see him relegated to super utility should the sox fall further behind in the AL East race

[italstallianion]

Isn't the average shortstop triple slash pretty lousy anyway? I think his defense more than makes up for it. I can see him being a super sub towards the end of this year (with Bogaerts called up) but I wouldn't mind him starting in the future. Realistically if he can hit above .200 and either draw some walks or at least work counts/pitches and do the little things right (ie sac bunt) then he's in the lineup. We've had so many blackholes in our lineup over the years, so I'm ok with one that can play gold glove defense.

 

And none of that "Jeter's been in the league so long let's give him another gold glove" type ******** either. Actual gold gloves.

[sk7326]

As far as the trade deadline goes, I expect pitching is the order of the day. Peavy is really the only starter who qualifies in any way as an "impact arm" - as long as the Phillies are not going to be realistic and put feelers out for Cliff Lee. Bullpen depth makes sense but I wouldn't pay much. It has been proven, your odds are just as good of shoring up the bullpen by signing Brian Wilson's corpse and bringing up Rubby De La Rosa or whomever. And besides, adding a 6+ inning a start guy will help there.

 

From a position player perspective, I don't expect much - the big front office decision to me is whether they want to give Boegarts the wheel at 3B for the stretch run.

[italstallianion]

For me, the decision whether to start/sit Iglesias comes down to how well Bogaerts can handle the SS position at the major league level. I'm not worried about Bogaerts offense, or Iglesias defense. I'd love to have Bogaerts at SS and Cecchini at 3B going forward, and maybe Middlebrooks at 1B or DH if he can hit.

[sk7326]

Isn't the average shortstop triple slash pretty lousy anyway? I think his defense more than makes up for it. I can see him being a super sub towards the end of this year (with Bogaerts called up) but I wouldn't mind him starting in the future. Realistically if he can hit above .200 and either draw some walks or at least work counts/pitches and do the little things right (ie sac bunt) then he's in the lineup. We've had so many blackholes in our lineup over the years, so I'm ok with one that can play gold glove defense.

 

And none of that "Jeter's been in the league so long let's give him another gold glove" type ******** either. Actual gold gloves.

 

You are right, replacement level is very low. A .250/.300/.370 sort of guy with his glove is actually an above average starter. The problem is that until the first 2-3 months of this season, nothing in his resume supported that slash line as a long term outlook. The question is whether the first half of this season is a legitimate, bona fide, scouting related improvement - or whether it was just an insanely high BABIP (which it was) that was bound to regress while he actually did not really get better.

[Behindenemylines]

Still need pitching. Whether its a starter (Peavy) and then move Workman to the bullpen, or a reliever and keep Workman in the rotation until Buchholtz comes back. If Bochholtz doesn't come back the Sox won't make the playoffs anyway. The way the Sox have failed to hit good pitching starting with the A's series before the break it has to concern you. If the Sox do make the playoffs are they quickly going to be eliminated because of the poor success against good pitching. With that said I don't want the FO to give away too many top prospects just to get to the playoffs.

[User Name]

Who hits good pitching consistently? That's why it's good pitching.

[sk7326]

Red Sox did not in Oakland - good pitching staff and arguably the best pitchers park in the AL. Their 4 losses after the break - Kuroda, Moore, Price, Tillman, 4 of the best pitchers in the AL. Caught them on bad days too. Sox could use a little more depth in the lineup - the pitching has actually not been too bad. Given the history of the "best team" winning the Series, just get in an figure it out then. Baseball is too weird a sport for a team to be truly a dead team walking. Even the biggest favorites are still not >50/50 to win it all. But yes a bit more pitching would help. That said, the team DOES do one of the things which is required to win it all - generate baserunners and create tough outs.

[Behindenemylines]

Who hits good pitching consistently? That's why it's good pitching.

 

The Sox not only have not hit good pitching of late, they can't even score off them. So even when they do get good pitching themselves they still are losing.

[User Name]

The Sox not only have not hit good pitching of late, they can't even score off them. So even when they do get good pitching themselves they still are losing.

 

Yeah, it happens. Teams slump during the course of a 162-game season, especially when you face several elite pitchers in a short amount of time. "Failure to not hit good pitching" can't be a concern, because that's why it's good pitching. Failure to consistently hit decent pitching like Tillman is a whole other matter.

[jung]

Iggy has improved as a hitter but expecting a continual improvement in baseball is simply unrealistic. Hitters improve. Pitchers probe for the hitters weaknesses. They are exposed and they are either overcome or not. If they are overcome they are not even overcome the same way by every hitter though they might seem to have similar if not the same weaknesses.

 

Pitchers have found the biggest hole in Iggy's current hitting capabilities and they are exploiting it. He will either overcome it or he won't.

 

WMB will overcome his current biggest hitting weaknesses or he won't. Even if they both overcome them, in both cases, pitchers will continue to probe and exploit whatever remaining weaknesses they find.

 

This is why some refer to hitting ML pitching as the hardest thing to do in any team sporting activity. If you look at the number of athletes in this world trying to hit thrown baseballs and the pitiful few by percentages that actually reach the pinnacle of the game it is hard to argue the point. There are stronger athletes, faster athletes, more durable athletes but no athletes that have the hand/eye coordination and reflexes of the ML hitter.

 

Those that do make it and stay in the ML's as hitters are so good, that all it takes is the most meager of decline in the pitcher's capabilities in order for those hitters to succeed. The ninth guy in a ML lineup (if he is not a pitcher) creams crummy pitching...destroys crummy pitching. At any one time, there might be two or three hitters in the entire world that are functioning at the peak of the sport as hitters. How many guys are at Cabrera's level? Are there one, maybe two others in the entire world??? In fact, you have to layer on a willingness to study pitcher's tendencies and understand what he is likely to throw in a given situation on top of tremendous hand/eye coordination and reflexes to be a Cabrera.

 

I still think the Sox have enough hitting to succeed as a team, as long as Ortiz stays upright. They don't have enough pitching and their defense has holes. Now that Drew has had his three AB's for the month, we could likely sit him and avoid the next 30 AB's. Maybe keep Drew in for the last game in Camden Yards which has even more laughable RF dimensions that new Yankee Stadium. So if they want to try WMB back at 3rd and Iggy at SS I guess I would be OK with it if WMB has actually improved. I am not even opposed to XB at 3rd and Iggy at SS if they have been working XB at 3rd.

 

Neither WMB or XB is going to light it up in my opinion because past the weak part of the schedule coming up after Monday they will be facing pretty good pitching the rest of the way. Expecting one guy with problems and another guy with no ML experience to come up in that environment with pennant races on and light it up is unrealistic. Maybe it will take some time for pitchers to get a book on XB. So, he might enjoy some limited success.

 

Sox should get a couple relievers, see if Lee actually comes available from the Phillies and make their run.

Edited July 28, 2013 by jung